Via Anthony Watts:
Abstract: We have observed spectroscopic changes in temperature sensitive molecular lines, in the magnetic splitting of an Fe I line, and in the continuum brightness of over 1000 sunspot umbrae from 1990-2005. All three measurements show consistent trends in which the darkest parts of the sunspot umbra have become warmer (45K per year) and their magnetic field strengths have decreased (77 Gauss per year), independently of the normal 11-year sunspot cycle. A linear extrapolation of these trends suggests that few sunspots will be visible after 2015.
Watts explains “Let us all hope that they are wrong, for a solar epoch period like the Maunder Minimum inducing a Little Ice Age will be a worldwide catastrophe economically, socially, environmentally, and morally.”
Much more at the link.
I’m wondering whether the bookmakers will take a bet on whether we will see a drop of more than 1/2 a degree in the average global temperature over the course of the next decade.
I’m wondering whether the bookmakers will take a bet on whether we will see a drop of more than 1/2 a degree in the average global temperature over the course of the next decade.
No sunspots after 2015.
Hmm, thats when Hell freezes over right?
Good thing I have my mukluks standing by.
Cheers
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht
Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
I foresee a carbon trading scheme where you get money for releasing -more- of it.
I’ll believe in global warming when oceanfront property starts to go down in value.
Beware of the fear mongering that the leftnuts engage regularly in. I can see other non-linear trends in the data that don’t paint anywhere near the armageddon scenario that’s being floated. For example in the graph where “Max Field B” has been linearly extrapolated to a value of 1500 by the year 2015, a hyperbolic “flattening out” curve could fit the data. As for the sudden drop in the “Observed Geomagnetic Averaged Planetary Index”, there are sudden increases and drops of similar magnitudes all over that graph (check out month 120 for instance). Also, the data over the last 30 months doesn’t look much different, magnitude-wise, than it does for months 60 to 85 (a 25 month period).
In any event, it looks like the solar output is definitely on the decline – which anyone with any brains knows is the only real cause of global temperature change. However, I’m not convinced that the next “Ice Age” is at my doorstep…yet.
Show the data again in another 20 months to see if predicted trends continue. If so, then maybe there’s a future manufacturing sabre-tooth ice chippers.
“a solar epoch period like the Maunder Minimum inducing a Little Ice Age will be a worldwide catastrophe economically, socially, environmentally, and morally.”
Except it will get The Goreacle to STFU and many books will be written exposing him as a fraud, a fool and a catastrophic prophet of doom & Gloom who tried to get very rich off his AGW ponzi scheme.
Considering that many think global warming can only be halted by reducing CO2 output, and considering that
[As put by geophysicist Philip Chapman, a former NASA astronaut-scientist and former president of the National Space Society, “It is time to put aside the global warming dogma, at least to begin contingency planning about what to do if we are moving into another little ice age.”]
and considering that
[The sun, of late, is remarkably free of eruptions: It has lost its spots. By this point in the solar cycle, sunspots would ordinarily have been present in goodly numbers. Today’s spotlessness — what alarms Dr. Chapman and others — may be an anomaly of some kind, and the sun may soon revert to form. But if it doesn’t – and with each passing day, the speculation in the scientific community grows that it will not – we could be entering a new epoch that few would welcome.]
and considering that
[Global warming would increase agricultural output, but global cooling will decrease it.”]
And so, if our sun throws us a curve ball, will we, especially in Canada, have to use more fossil fuels, to produce more CO2, in order to keep from freezing and starving to death ?
Especially when one also considers that enhanced CO2 promotes plant (food) growth .
Ive been reading a lot of the research on sun spot activity and global cooling and the more I read the more confident I am AGW is a crock.The real concern is excessive cooling over the next 20 years and humankind response to a world wide drop of 2 degrees .
The Deniers by Lawrence Solomon, is a series of articles in The Financial Post on “climate Change”.
It is a wealth of information by someone who started out investigating just what makes so call deniers tick.
As with Kate’s post here, Solomon has discovered that our biggest worry may be cooling – colding even !! Especially in Canada, eh.
[You probably haven’t heard much of Solar Cycle 24, the current cycle that our sun has entered, and I hope you don’t. If Solar Cycle 24 becomes a household term, your lifestyle could be taking a dramatic turn for the worse. That of your children and their children could fare worse still, say some scientists, because Solar Cycle 24 could mark a time of profound long-term change in the climate.] LS
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2008/05/31/the-deniers-our-spotless-sun.aspx
The hysterics will be trumpeting the New Ice Age very soon.
The exact same ones that were trumpeting AGM up until now and were trumpeting the New Ice Age prior to that.
The scientists and researchers on either side will unapologetically go back to trying to prove their pet theories and proselytizing for funding.
What to do about these alarmist freaks is the question we need to answer.
Martin B. is 100% right of course. The TRUTH of the matter is that the science is far, far from complete. We are looking at a natural system with more inputs than the stock market, another system nobody understands.
Historically, the temperature has varied on a cycle between a rough high and a rough low. That’s what we know with any certainty.
Everything beyond that is speculation. Which won’t stop Algore from pulling a complete 180 and demanding money for CO2 -production- instead of CO2 sequestering.
You can’t predict the weather, but socialists you can predict with 100% accuracy.
“No sunspots after 2015.
Hmm, thats when Hell freezes over right?
Good thing I have my mukluks standing by.
Cheers
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht
Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Posted by: Hans Rupprecht at June 5, 2008 10:08 AM”
Hey – maybe the Leafs fans will be happy. Who was it again that said the Leafs will win a Stanley Cup when Hell freezes over? Get ready Torontonians and start planning the Cup parade for 2015!!!!
When the AGW fraud is finally admitted to be the farce that it is, I demand that the cheerleaders in media hang from the same set of lamposts that Fruit Fly, Hanson and Gore are hung from.
I would also be in favour a a complete purge of all of our universities. EVERY. LAST. ONE. FIRED.
Perhaps Old Sol himself will prove, once and for all, that the whole Global Warming thing, including Al Gore, is one big fraud.
But just what is it about the Kyoto thing that so excites the ‘latte left’ crowd ? For them, I think it is the ‘perfect storm’.
To a greater or lesser degree, I believe it includes;
– a ‘new religion’ that is actually a backlash against “conventional” religion, to the point of hatred, even siding with Islamic terrorists in the fight against Christianity, Jews.
– a “good” target villain, Oil Companies ( even though “big oil” is now in control of only 10% of the world’s reserves and production. Dictators, unstable regimes, Kings, communists the rest)
– a coming to power and influence of the anti-establishment hippy crowd. Especially in the media, without which Kyoto would have surely fizzled.
– the rise of the environmental Saviours. What better driver of emotions than an imminent ‘end of the world’ weather catastrophe ?
– a panic developed in leftist circles around the world after the collapse of the Berlin Wall & Communism, and with it the Lefts hope of socialistic control. They were horrified to think that free democracies and capitalism had won the day. A severe case of jealousy and hatred broke out, especially against the US.
– a way to stifle the US; restrict oil exploration in the US and make it even more vulnerable to foreign oil.
– impose heavy carbon penalties on the US while exempting other countries (China, India. EU Kyoto benefited by East Block collapse)
– environmentalism, the perfect religion. How could anyone be against it ? (Except that Kyoto is not about pollution. CO2 is even pumped into food producing green houses and the dinosaurs enjoyed a lush world with CO2 levels more than four times higher than today)
– the thought of carbon taxes, a huge cash cow for politicians.
– the rise of the SUV became a focal point of greens.
– the success of the anti globalization riots gave the fanatics in the environment movement ideas ( non more than Maurice Strong, IMO)
– the rise of the United Nations’ influence and power. Who could be against such a “noble” institution ?
[From the “I hope to God they are flat wrong department”,] Anthony Watts
Why is the threat of colder weather scary ?
[Western Europe experienced a general cooling of the climate between the years 1150 and 1460 and a very cold climate between 1560 and 1850 that brought dire consequences to its peoples. The colder weather impacted agriculture, health, economics, social strife, emigration, and even art and literature. Increased glaciation and storms also had a devastating affect on those that lived near glaciers and the sea.]Scott A. Mandia
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/lia/little_ice_age.html
Obviously AGW is dead, what concerns me is how powerful the movement was/is. We are actually passing laws and taxes that will hurt our country to no positive end. Regardless of the issue, this movement will carry on and we have all said before “the truth isn’t relevant”(or something like that). When I was in high school the catastrophe was a hole in the ozone layer. The UN declared in the late 90’s that the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica has disappeared. I caught this story once, 30 seconds on a news broadcast. You would think it was good news that the sun wasn’t going to kill us all. I don’t know who to thank, but lucky for us we all changed our hairspray bottles over from aerosol. Now that I think about it, maybe it was a human induced hole in the ozone, they were using allot of hairspray in the 80’s.
Nice and contradictory for this blog. Solar output is to “go down”, but supposedly the teperatures of outer planets is going up ( a la paper Tiger et al)..showing that solar output is going up!
So, which is it CONS? Is solar output going down or is it going up?
Also, its strange that the average temperature is going up with the sun cooling down.
Oh yeah…Kate can cover this off with more “badly placed automatic weather stations”..without providing proof that these station are official…or just badly placed private stations.
it will be 1.6 degrees c. colder by 2030. hope like hell fuel is available because this will be like the m minimum.
Troll Alert !!
You haven’t been paying attention, Murray. Last 8 years, the global temperatures have been dropping with the drop in solar activity. The world(s) may have been warming before that, but not now.
Try to keep up.
Whether it is a Human Rights “trial” or a Global Warming debate, the truth (science) doesn’t mean anything to the Fascists.
Blinded by the light.
Stern is bloviating again with his crystal balls: the Father of All Catastrophes. Forget AGW/CC.
The words, the words! “catastrophic”, “an even bigger threat”, “water crisis”, “relentless exhaustion of energy reserves”, etc.
Phewww.
Oh. Forgot this from some egghead: “a psychotic excess of rainfall,”.
Send for the white coats.
…-
“Water crisis to be biggest world risk
A catastrophic water shortage could prove an even bigger threat to mankind this century than soaring food prices and the relentless exhaustion of energy reserves, according to a panel of global experts at the Goldman Sachs “Top Five Risks” conference.
Nicholas (Lord) Stern, author of the Government’s Stern Review on the economics of climate change,”
“”Water is not a renewable resource. People have been mining it without restraint because it has not been priced properly,” he said.”
“Stanford professor Donald Kennedy said global climate change was now setting off a self-feeding spiral. “We’ve got droughts combined with a psychotic excess of rainfall,” he said.”
“Comments
There are 360 quintillion gallons of water on earth same as 1MM years ago. 97% in oceans, 2% in ice, 1% we use – the ultimate recyclable!
We are not running out of water!”
http://tinyurl.com/3u7gmm (telegraph)
It’s the Sun, Son.
Just say no to solar cooling denial.
I think once(if) a democrat is in the whitehouse th AGW thing is going to fizzle away undramatically, watch also for the big turnaround in Iraq.
So it’s glacier building time again, eh?
I sure wouldn’t want to live too close to the ice fields/mountains in a few years.
Gee, I may even have to chop down some of the Enchanted Forest to stay warm.
http://tinyurl.com/5cn9qp
It’s shaping up to be a big year for icebergs in the province. In fact, early counts indicate 2008 will be the best berg-watching season in almost 10 years.
In 1998, some 1,384 bergs were reported, and so far this year more than 900 have been counted off the province’s shores.
Lt. Bill Woityra, operations officer with the International Ice Patrol, said that since 1900, there have been only 15 years when the iceberg count has exceeded 1,000.
“We’ve also had more icebergs in 2008 than in the last four years combined,” Woityra said.
“I’m wondering whether the bookmakers will take a bet”
I want some of that action.