Quebec Byelection Results – By The Numbers

From the comments;

Fun with tonights numbers. Total votes summed for all three ridings and percentages.
Con 31475 36.9
Lib 12118 14.2
Bloc 23983 28.1
NDP 14587 17.1
Green 2197 2.6
neorhino 529 0.6
other 366 0.4
The last year of polling across Canada had the Green party at ~10%. Where did that vote go? What can be said about the Liberals at 14% in Quebec with a native son as the leader?

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why Elizabeth May has no business being invited to a leader’s debate.

36 Replies to “Quebec Byelection Results – By The Numbers”

  1. This is killing MSM. They continue to make this the “Dion Chronicles”…trying desperately to ignore the CPC victory in the 36.9% vote.
    Now let’s see how Dion handles the Speech from the Throne!

  2. It is 7.30 here in Alberta. I have been switching between ctc and cbc and I have yet to see/hear any interview with the Conservative winner, or any interview/comment from PMSH or any other conservative. However, taliban jack is all over the tube. Dion has also been shown a lot.
    Layton thinks this win means the ndp can win more seats in Que. Regardless, is the conservatives can’t win in Toronto, let’s hope Layton takes another 3 seats. He will never be PM, and Que likes to be on the side of government. Layton will not win many seats in Quebec, and he will have to work hard to keep the one he has.

  3. Yes, there’s no such thing as a Conservative victory, only a temporary slip-up by a bad leader. This is the Liberals’ country! It’s just on loan right now.

  4. *
    A feckless bootlicker named Jason,
    Thought his leader was quite a sensation,
    when the twit lost the race,
    and the party lost face,
    he proclaimed it was self-immolation!

    *

  5. WL Mackenzie Redux “there’s poo poo in the prawn dip”
    Don’t feel too sorry for them WLMR its Puffin Poo Poo and the Puffin libs just couldn’t find any place else to hide it.

  6. As an NDP supporter I am happy about Mulcair’s victory. At the same time, it seems like the Liberals let us win this one because Mulcair’s numbers are only a little bit higher in victory than the previous NDP candidate got in 2006 when he finished third. Second, Mulcair is a Quebec Liberal (not a federal one) and according to my sources, he only operates on two levels, ambitious and more ambitious. He may be happy to spend time with the NDP for now, but soon he will want more than we can provide for him and his giant sized ego and ambitions. I hope I’m wrong about this, but time will only tell. I will be curious to see if the Libs delibrately put somebody like Coulon in place just to embarass Dion (sounds faintly conspiratorial doesn’t it??) Anyway all of that being said, I’m still happy (for now) that Outremont has taken, if not conquered by the NDP.

  7. Wonder how many $300 bottles of french wine sophistery will be expense accounted to Canadians with the Dion loserburger all the lib bureaufats will be dining on in Ottawa today?

  8. Quebec has failed to recognize a true Statesman when he’s right in front of them, Stephane Dion, the face of neo-Liberalism in Canada.
    With the dignity of a De Gaulle, the tenacity of a Napoleon, and the oratorical skills of a Churchill, Dion is the man who could have led Quebec out of the wilderness, and into it’s rightful place in the Canadian Confederation. Instead of always being the “poor little sister”, Quebec would have again become the economic and cultural engine of Canada, but, alas, Quebecers, in their ignorance, have elected a Communist, a Fascist, and a Separatist.
    The finest Liberal leader since Wilfred Laurier goes unrecognized for his greatness, and Canada will suffer for it.
    (Stealing a march on the Progressives, I am your faithfully, dmorris)

  9. I believe Stephane Dion should hide inside one of those new Leopard 2 tanks, as they have better protection against political landmines.
    Oh and don’t forget your body armor, flak jacket and helmet!!
    You will need it for your trip to Afghanistan negotiating with the Taliban.
    How do you spell KABOOM!?!
    By-elections: the sound of LIEberal explosions of voter affection are everywhere.
    Cheers
    Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht BGS, PDP, CFP
    Commander in Chief
    Frankenstein Battalion
    2nd Squadron: Ulanen-(Lancers) Regiment Großherzog Friedrich von Baden (Rheinisches) Nr.7
    (Saarbrucken)
    Knecht Rupprecht Division
    Hans Corps
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group “True North”

  10. Good on the Conservatives for beating the BQ in there former strong hold, though it should be pointed out that the Conservatives failed miserably at breaking into Montreal once again.
    Really, the story should be the huge drop in BQ support across all three ridings and not really all about the Liberals, who only last 3 or 4% relative to the 2006 elections in these ridings.
    And were did that 10% Green support go? mmmm….
    However, combining all three ridings as you have is pointless as it is only three ridings and fails to distinguish between the separate dynamics of each riding, let alone the very low voter turnout. That being said, it will be interesting to see how well the Conservatives can sustain their up-swing in rural and francophone Quebec since the 2006 election.

  11. Gottal love the spin from Sean S. and dmorris (I suspect they’re kidding, or, are truly desperate Liberals).
    Yes SS, Tories gain seat they didn’t hold before, but the issue is their failure to do better in Montreal? Yes, low voter turnout; yes, only three ridings. Yes have another drink. Oh yeah, BQ did poorly. Hey Sean, I guess the Libs and NDP were the “winners” last night.
    Dmorris, I’m sure you’re kidding, but assuming you’re not – Dion is a great orator? He excoriated himself last night with with unnecesary, rambling ridiculous rhetoric, where he rationlized a victory for “progressives.” IOW, he refuses to understand that positioning the Grits on the left (not even left of centre), destroys their credibility as a national force and makes them vulnerable to NDP. That was the worst speech I’ve ever heard from a Canadian politician.
    When Harper lost byelections, he used the same rationalization (low turnout, just byelection, etc), but he also had to good sense to depart the scene and let his candidate do the thank yous.
    Dion appointed Coulon and was given a lesson in organization by the NDP. For Libs to realize this past weekend that they were in trouble there should be inexcusable.
    OTOH, what choice do they have. Now Harper can give them the death by a thousand tax cuts, govern as he sees fit, and dare opposition to try and stop him.
    Sure Dion is a rookie and bound to make mistakes, but he doesn’t seem to have learned a thing. That is why he is doomed.

  12. I will be curious to see if the Libs delibrately put somebody like Coulon in place just to embarass Dion
    Well, given that Dion selected the man himself, it would be quite a trick, wouldn’t it? Unless Iggy has Jedi mind-warping powers and forced Dion to “ignore the ‘droids he wasn’t looking for” just after he parachuted Coulon into the riding, this one rests with Stephane. I think we can assert that this was either gross incompetence, or a political tin ear on Dion’s part – for a polititian, I guess that isn’t an “or” so much as an “and” construction…

  13. “Good on the Conservatives for beating the BQ in there former strong hold, though it should be pointed out that the Conservatives failed miserably at breaking into Montreal once again.”
    CPC has moved left under Harpers tunure, now not a lot different that the Chretien Libs (except for the lack of shameless corruption). So this Montreal riding responds by… moving even further left.
    Message to Harper. Ignore the Island of Montreal as well as the “Islands” of Toronto and Vancouver. No amount of pandering will curry their favour for you.

  14. ward:
    But, but … who’s going to fund the Pride Parades in those cesspools of humanity if there are no more handouts from the state?

  15. Sean S., I did make the disclaimer “Fun with tonights numbers.” That being said, are the three ridings diverse enough with respect to Quebec to be significant? A sample size of 85,000 votes gives a little more confidence that the usual ~400 people that are sampled in national polls. By my calculations, the confidence interval is +/- 0.44%, 99 times out of 100, again only if the 3 ridings represent all Quebec. As I say, “Fun with numbers”.

  16. Sean:
    I’ll give you a huge clue as to why the Conservatives will continue to do well in the general election.
    The reason is exactly the same as why they did well in yesterday’s byelections.
    Quebec’s powers under the British North America act are being respected.
    It’s as simple as that and it is also the reason the Bloc will fade to irrelevance.
    Trudeau changed the country for the bad in several ways, but one of the worst is the France-styled centralization of state function.
    He and his successors continued to encroach upon areas of provincial jurisdiction and Quebec did NOT sign onto the 1982 repatriation.
    Harper and his predecessor Preston Manning made respect for provincial jurisdiction a cornerstone of their platform and this respect is appreciated by Quebeckers.
    It’s a fact the MSM still has not caught onto … much to their own peril because they will continue to look like dinosaurs defending Trudeau’s country-destroying legacy.
    Canada is a federation of provinces. Each province has its area or responsibility and the federal government has its own.
    Once that balance is respected by all, Canada will once again be a great country.

  17. The biggest loser;
    The media.
    The second biggest loser:
    Maurice Strong.
    Canadians no longer take most journos seriously. The biggest insult is to be ignored.
    There are, thankfully, some clear thinking journalists still around.
    Looking forward to comments from;
    Lorrie Goldstein
    Peter Foster
    Terrence Corcoran
    Lawrence Solomon
    Chantal Hebert
    and some others.

  18. That being said, are the three ridings diverse enough with respect to Quebec to be significant?
    In a word, yes. If you wanted to sample three ridings at random to get something representative of Quebec it would be hard to pick three better ones. One Liberal stronghold in Montreal, one south of Montreal and one in the separatist heartland of Lac St. Jean. Together they give a very significant snapshot of Quebec at the moment.

  19. “Dmorris, I’m sure you’re kidding, but assuming you’re not – Dion is a great orator?”
    Shamrock, you must understand I am a viciously sarcastic person, and the worst insult, to me, is to be called a Liberal! 😉
    But, I would very much like to see Dion remain as Liberal party leader, because, if he’s not there, they just MIGHT find another Trudeau to lead them from the political wilderness.
    This Country needs at least two full length terms of a Stephen harper majority government, if for no other reason than to reform the Senate and SCC.

  20. I do look forward to hearing Chantel Hebert on this, she is the only sensible voice that they use when the rest of the rabble quits interrupting.

  21. Harper is laughing all the way to the ballot box.
    I now bet that the throne speech will set extending the Afghan mission as a priority (see Karzai’s request today…coincidence?), and if that isn’t enough to defeat the throne speech and force an election by itself, there will be a confidence motion on extending the mission in the early days of the new parliament, which all of the leaders have promised to vote against.

  22. when a new pol. party hits the streets, cdns desperate for change will focus on the happy talk and support it. kinda like manning & reform (look where they are now…)
    its a window of opportunity for the newbies to build on and get the message out and win even more support.
    unless your leader is an airhead by the name of elizabeth may, in which case she, for example, openly encourages voters to select candidates from another party, ie the liberals. (remember that?)
    thus the precipitous plunge just one election apart from 10% to less than 3.
    looks good on her.

  23. I think it was a great idea to merge the LIEberal (Red)And Green Party. This way they can be known as the R.A.G. Party – all they will be good for is to clean up their own mess. Together they made 16.8% of the vote. Remember that thay agreed not to run against each other in certain riddings – example: in DeYawn and Ms May’s ridding. With DeYawn “appointing” candadates – like the last one – they will have a hard time. I suspect that DeYawn will appoint “ladies” into riddings that he knows they will not win – east of Man. – and call the those who voted for other parties wemen haters.
    All I can say at the present is: Please, please, please Deyawn,defeat the government! With the R.A.G Party working together they will have a hard time to win the next election. If I had the money I’d run against any LIEberal and – though I may not win – give them a run for their money.
    The only problem with the Cons is their handeling of Income Trust and something about election Canada looking into their expenses, while the LIEberals have 13 years of broken promises – except for destroying the traditional family by bringing in the same-sex Merrage.
    By-the-way, did the LIEberal party ever pay back the money they stole from Ad-scam? No wonder they couldn’t buy signs. DeYawn needs help, perhaps the internal fighting in the LIEberal Party is all the help they need – after al they have to worry about the NDP as well as the present government. Keep DeYawn as leader of the R.A.G. Party! [This way Jasson will get a Senate seat – for his loyalty – and I’ll keep asking if I could carry his suitcase for $95,000.00 per year.}

  24. Elizabeth May will be sidelined for a few weeks, she’s having a hip replacement done, that’s “hip” not “lip”. We must wish her well though and await her lippy return to the job of building the Greenies and saving the Environment, etc.

  25. What everyone is ignoring in the results is that the NDP now has an talented amibitous bilingual MP from Quebec. Who not only understands Quebec, but is trusted by the federalists.
    So I would say the all other parties need to be prepared if Muclair becomes the new NDP leader. Its going to happen sooner or later. The Bloq would loose progressive voters, most of them would go NDP rather then consevative and Liberal Voters in both Quebec and Ontario will find a solidly federalist leader who understands Quebec very very attractive.

  26. Anybody here willing to bet that Mulcair will warm the Dipper bench in the House only for as long as it takes for the knives to come for Steffi?
    Once the Night of the Long Knives is over, expect to see Mulcair hustle his buns over to the Liberal benches to support Iggy, or maybe Trudeau mk. II, if he doesn’t take a run for the brass ring himself.
    Taliban Jack had better get his gloating in early. It’s shaping up to be an entertaining political season, for sure.

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