When you can manufacture it! “(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The television spots released by the Conservative party to question the traits of Liberal leader Stéphane Dion had a negligible impact on the perceptions of Canadians, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies.”
Page 1
Page 4
PDF
h/t reader “tori”
On page 1, right below where you cropped, the headline states:
“Ads More Effective among Canadians with No Firm Opinions of Dion”
On page 3, from the table reporting the main questions of the survey:
Q1 [Before viewing ad]. Of the following two federal party leaders, which one do you think would be the best Prime Minister of Canada?
– Dion: 40%
– Harper: 36%
– Don’t Know: 24%
Q4 [After viewing ad]. Now, of the following two federal party leaders, which one do you think would be the best Prime Minister of Canada?
– Dion: 39% (-1%)
– Harper: 36% (no change)
– Don’t Know: 26% (+2%)
Practise what you preach, Kate. If you’re going to accuse AngusReid of distorting the ‘facts,’ then you should have the integrity to not distort them right back yourself.
Essentially the Conservatives inform the public about the negative side of SD (a job which the media should have done) and people start to see him in a more negative light …
This is only news because of how pathetic our media is
Looks to me like she did practice what she preach’s by linking to the entire document so that you, lazy bones, wouldn’t have to go to the trouble of looking it up yourself.
And it looks to me like she got the story bang on, the pollster and the media are again caught with their pants down. At the very least they are not doing their job, at the worst they are working for the liberals. Either way the sheeple should be outraged.
Read the news release in the first link.
You can criticize me for “distorting the facts’ if you wish – I’ve done nothing more than contrast the contents of the pdf with the headline.
The difference is that I’m not Angus Reid.
Their distortions were widely reported in the mainstream media last week with no mention at all of these striking contradictions. And why would they? Angus Reid cherrypicked their own findings to craft an anti-Conservative message, and reporters being what they are, were quite happy to regurgitate it.
Looks to me like she did practice what she preach’s by linking to the entire document so that you, lazy bones, wouldn’t have to go to the trouble of looking it up yourself.
Does that mean that AngusReid was as equally fair and impartial by linking to the entire document in their press release?
Kate, It seems to me that you provided the documents for us to read, to make up our own minds. Angus Read is just another paid for the Lov’n Liberals club.
No. They misrepresented their own findings, then anticipated a media too lazy (or sympathetic) to look for themselves.
Consider most media doesn’t look at the original press release, but simply repeats what other outlets are reporting. We see this phenomenon over and over again – for example, look at the WaPo story on the Pentagon report on Feith. They didn’t read the document – they quoted Democrat Carl Levin and reported what he said was in it.
By the time the corrections started to roll in, the horse was out of the media barn and on the wires.
Looking at all of the effects the Reid headline is correct, in that they did not move the overall voting intentions in a statistically significant way, ie which party would you vote for.
But an equally fair headline would have been
“CPC ads undermine DION”
the story would go
Despite the Liberal Party maintaining its position the CPC ads have created longer term trouble for Stephane Dion.
Anyway, the headline wasnt a lie but Liberals who choose to beleive it are whistling past the graveyard. Overall poll numbers dont change too much, it takes time to get people to go back on their decisions. If I were the CPC strategist I would be very happy with these numbers. The numbers Kate highlighted will show up in subsequent polls, watch and wait.
Look at the history of how Dion got to where he is. From the beginning, the A list libs refused to run for the leadership of their party. This left a rag-tag bunch of also-rans and newcomers; what could only optimistically be called the B list but more accurately the C list. Of them, the front runners were Iggy and Rae. In the end, Dion won the contest because people hated him less than either of those two. What does that say about the libs own feelings about the quality of their new guy?
And now Chantal Hebert is reporting that some of the top MP’s are practicing up on their French in order to be prepared to replace Dion. So the libs love their new leader but they’re preparing to replace him 2 months into his tenure? Electing him leader was a disaster for the lpc and electing him PM would be a disaster for Canada. Fortunately, I believe that most people know that, even if they don’t say it.
So, I find that I am generally visiting this site to defend the practices of pollsters, but I can’t for the life of me understand how Angus Reid have drawn the conclusions from their own data which they have. If these data say anything, it’s that the ads make people less ambivalent towards Dion and sometimes more negative. Based on their own data, they hardly have no effect.
That said, I think it’s premature for anybody to be saying whether the ads work or not, especially based on a weakly designed experiment. but what’s most clear is that you cannot dismiss them as AR has.
The difference is that I’m not Angus Reid. Their distortions were widely reported in the mainstream media last week with no mention at all of these striking contradictions. And why would they? Angus Reid cherrypicked their own findings to craft an anti-Conservative message, and reporters being what they are, were quite happy to regurgitate it.
Oh, no doubt. On the point that AngusReid presented only half their findings in their news release, who could disagree? Their headline is certainly a distortion, logically defensible (note the sequencing of questions, for instance) if not journalistically so.
Still, you didn’t just “contrast the contents of the pdf with the headline”; you did exactly what you accuse AngusReid and the MSM of doing–that is, cherry-pick only the bits that fit with your particular political orientation.
I agree that media reports are invariably full of bias and distortion and lazy journalism. But if you’re going to criticize them for being unbalanced (deservedly so), and, importantly, do it in the particular way that you do (quotations, screen captures, links), then your argument would be far more compelling to the moderate reader if it was actually more balanced than the MSM ‘version.’ You won’t change many opinions about bias in the MSM if you come across as an equally biased ideologue yourself. Present a more balanced case, and it becomes impossible to ignore.
All that was needed here was a single line (“While it’s true that respondents didn’t change their leadership preference…”) or even a full screencap of the p.1 cover, and you’d have come out aces. Instead, the lasting impression of this post is that it’s as biased and hypocritical and self-interested as the reportage it purports to attack.
After the last election and all that had gone on the previous decade I’m still amazed at how many stupid voters reside in this country. I wonder what the percentage of truly dumb the next election will certify.
Cummon….you forget the Polster’s matra; “It’s not the data that counts, it’s the interpretation”. 😉
The liberals think the ads worked, according to Travers and others on Fri on Newman. If the ads haven’t worked, why do we hear so many of the phrases being repeated in the media in other -stories- they do. I have read comments on other blogs and papers talking about other topics using But they didn’t get it done, etc. These phrases are like the beer and popcorn stmt. They would have had more effect if we had not repeated -attack ads- and instead, oh you mean the re-runs of the leadership debate. Again, according to reports, the libs have dropped 8% in TO since they ran. What I find funny is people saying they were poorly produced, grainy, stupid etc, thinking they were produced in a studio by the conservatives instead of actual footage of the debate. If more liberals had watched the debates they would never have voted for dion.
Even Chantel said, wait for these ads to run in Que in French and see what happens to dion’s support. The main thing is that there is now some doubt in cdns minds that dion is not the great environmentalist he says he is.
“biased and hypocritical” from a liberano plant. HAHAHAHA
I wonder what A is short for?
There are people who are wont to criticize and defend the indefensible to blindly adhere to their particular bent. Kate is not one of those people.
Some people, are all knowing. They criticize and when caught out they suddenly come on side but continue to criticize and nit pick, paragraph by paragraph.
It isn’t the negative ads having an impact. It’s the facts that are having an impact; the ads are simply the medium to deliver the information.
They are information ads, based on fact , not based on fabrication like …Harper leading storm troopers in our cities.
The MSM won’t confront the facts of the B team choice of dithering Dion. He can’t prioritize or lead any more than Martin could and the public were surprised about him too because the MSM never exposed Martin for what he was. . A Desmarais puppet who balanced the budget on the backs of taxpayers .. who deserve the credit for that, not Martin.
Travers and other Liberal pundits are in denial about the problem. They want to pretend it’s about the ad campaign. It’s not. It’s about the fact that the Liberals have chosen another ditherer like Martin. Chantal wants us to think Dion is decisive in French …that it’s because of his weak English that he looks flustered … I don’t buy it.
It isn’t the negative ads having an impact. It’s the facts that are having an impact; the ads are simply the medium to deliver the information.
They are information ads, based on fact , not based on fabrication like …Harper leading storm troopers in our cities.
The MSM won’t confront the facts of the B team choice of dithering Dion. He can’t prioritize or lead any more than Martin could and the public were surprised about him too because the MSM never exposed Martin for what he was. . A Desmarais puppet who balanced the budget on the backs of taxpayers .. who deserve the credit for that, not Martin.
Travers and other Liberal pundits are in denial about the problem. They want to pretend it’s about the ad campaign. It’s not. It’s about the fact that the Liberals have chosen another ditherer like Martin. Chantal wants us to think Dion is decisive in French …that it’s because of his weak English that he looks flustered … I don’t buy it.
Could it be that AR is doing to the Libranos what the Libranos have been doing to us since Trueduh? If so, it looks good on them.
Follow the money…polls are paid for by someone, and it’s never the Conservatives. Harper doesn’t believe in wasting money on them. Therefore, the polls will be spun the way the buyer (Globe & Mail, CTV, CBC, Liberal Party) wants them spun.
That being said, we don’t need a poll to tell us that Dion is going to be a disaster in the next election. Just watch any of his interview or debate appearances and you’ll find someone whose English is neither understandable nor charming in the Chretien style; and someone who absolutely cannot connect with the average voter. If the polls are crashing in on him now, imagine after the election-season debates…
You are correct nomdenet – those ads were taken from the Liberano leadership ‘show’; no fabrication. NCF TO, I did not find Cretian’s lack of language skills ‘charming’, he could speak properly, he choose not to because he liked to play with the ‘great unwashed’ (voters) in his own sleazy mind by treating us to his ‘back-woodsy’ skit.
French citizen Dion is not well educated or well spoken; Canada could never send him anywhere but ‘home'(France) without embarrassment. A person that trips all over his own tongue will be ignored, not respected by people who are not ‘vested’ in his future.
Just to be clear – I didn’t find anything about Chretien charming, but most of my fellow Ontario voters did. Choking that protestor was overwhelmingy adored in these parts.
I watched PMSH today when he made his announcement re his ECOTRUST. He spoke both in english and french. The difference between him and dion is that PMSH looks and sounds confident when speaking in either language. Dion on the other hand looks like the deer in the headlights, regardless of language. No amount of anything will change how he looks, even when silent. The more dion is out in the tv lights, the more people will perceive him as weak. Another thing, almost his entire dream team is taller, and bigger than he is and he looks very small and insignificant when in their midst. Throw in a few samples of his goofs and misprounciations and he will fall even further in the polls. The question will be, is that the image you want of canada on the world stage.
Actually, the choking thing was one of the few times I liked him. It’s also how I always kind of liked the “screw you” style of PET, while generally hating his program. Politics is show business for ugly people, and having charm and style does go a long way – not only in getting elected but in the ability to win over your opponents and get things done (Ronald Reagan, great example, given all he achieved with/despite a De, controlled congress).
cant wait for SD to go in an English debate with harper and Layton… will be great watching them tag team his BAD English =)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b5/Seuss-cat-hat.gif
“cant wait for SD to go in an English debate with harper and Layton… will be great watching them tag team his BAD English =)”
I’m not so sure that you’ll see that toy, the liberals will try and find some way to get out of it.
On a side note, check out the above link. The only thing dion needs is a red hat.
I find this telling, as today I received an email from SES, (the only polling company to nail the election right on, by the way) with their latest numbers on leadership.
“The CPAC-SES Leader Report Card indicates that after one year in power, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has noticeably improved all measures related to leadership. Compared to the eve of the federal election, he has significantly improved his leadership image score on trust (+14 points), competence (+17) and his vision for Canada (+14).
Most Trustworthy Leader
* Harper – 35% (+14)
* Dion – 20% (Martin – 18%)
* Duceppe – 8% (-3)
* Layton – 18% (-7)
* May – 8% (Harris – 3%)
Most Competent Leader
* Harper – 41% (+17)
* Dion – 22% (Martin – 28%)
* Duceppe – 8% (No change)
* Layton – 13% (-4)
* May – 4% (Harris – 2%)
Best Vision for Canada
* Harper – 39% (+14)
* Dion – 21% (Martin – 25%)
* Duceppe – 5% (-1)
* Layton – 16% (-2)
* May – 7% (Harris – 3%)
This was done a few weeks ago, on the one year anniversary of the election, BEFORE the Dion ads.
Oh, http://www.nikonthenumbers.com
Is there any chance that Dion could be to the Liberals what Kim Campbell was to the PCs?
A government with a history of scandal and corruption gets a new leader that doesn’t quite connect with the public. My memory is a little vague that far back but that is the way I remember her in that election campaign.
Is this just wishful thinking on my part?
If you continue the Kim Cambell link that would mean that only Stephanie and Mark Holland would get re-elected and eventually Stephanie would retire as Ambassador to California….
Look at it this way: With all the positive and gushing press coverage in the MSM about Dion, the conservative adds still managed to lower Dion’s numbers.
What would Dion’s numbers look like without such loving press attention?
doug newton
you know, as much as we’d like to think that, there are two reasons why that will never happen, sadly.
Toronto and Montreal.
Bastards.
It was just a couple of days ago that I read of a poll,I think it was by Leger,that had the Conservatives ahead of the libs by 38% to 31%. I wonder why this wasn’t reported very widely.Also,I,for one,enjoy listening to steffie speak. He sounds like a 15 year old who just got his tongue pierced and is not used to having a stud in his mouth.
There are some cracks beginning to appear in the ranks of the Liberals. On Liblogs, they are complaining about critical articles on their leader, Stephane Dion, written by Chantal Hebert and James Travers.
http://thewhatdoiknowgrit.blogspot.com/2007/02/chantal-hebert-continues-her-dion.html
Trev
Wait a minute – I’m from Toronto. I voted Reform in that election.
The reason that this continues is that anyone even loosely linked to the mainstream media are all communists.
If you look into it, you’ll find that so too are the hairdressers, gas station attendants, accountants, advertising executives, woodworkers, teachers, veterinarians, electronics retailers, and real estate agents, among others.
Either that, or you’re the the one who’s different.
Trev
You could have at least called me an illegitimate offspring of an irregular union. Much more PC you know.
Crabgrass: You mentioned hairdressers, did you see JVD yesterday? Looks like she may have forgotten to put her hand in the socket, her hair was reasonably toned down. Proves she reads SDA, and took note of all the insults re her hair.
Now, if we could just work on what comes out of her mouth.
“cant wait for SD to go in an English debate with harper and Layton… will be great watching them tag team his BAD English =)”
I’m not so sure that you’ll see that toy, the liberals will try and find some way to get out of it.
there is no doubt in my mind that JL and SH will be alot nicer to each other in the next english debate because SD is a studdering fool, just the thought of the day when the NDP and the Conservatives join against a mutual enamy on national tv *snivel* brings a tear of joy to my eye