Wuhan Flu

Wuhan Flu 49 Comments

Via Scott Gotlieb, MD — Disturbing new analysis from the modeling team at Imperial College shows initial #COVID19 epidemic lasting much longer in U.S. than other circulating models that show a peak in April/May; with a resurgence of infections when mitigation steps are lifted.

Paper is here;

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the
results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policy making in the UK and other countries
 
in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducingcontact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.
 
Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.”

49 Replies to “Wuhan Flu”

  1. *
    might wanna hold off on throwing those virgins into the volcano…

    “More than 18,000 Americans have died from this season’s generic flu
    so far, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease
    Control and Prevention.”

    “In 2018, the CDC estimated, there were 80,000 flu deaths. That’s
    against 19 coronavirus deaths so far, from about 470 cases.”

    the half dozen deaths in canada have all been octogenarians with
    underlying medical conditions.

    *

      1. I’m with you on this Kate. I’ve seen this curve before. if we don’t keep the Medical sector functional we will have easily twice the number of dead, maybe three in the end. Not just nCoV cases but all the others who normally occupy these beds will be getting substandard care or none at all. These are people that would have lived long lives had others acted responsibly. And it is wrong to think just in terms of survival. Many who live will carry on with their health ruined. Needlessly so.

        One of the first Italian vent cases was a spectacularly fit 38 year old male marathon runner. He was on a vent for 16 days before they saved him. Think how many man hours of care that was. Do the math folks. Hope to hear he runs again some day!

      2. Well, until we know how many get the virus, we cannot compare it with anything than the flu.

        Thousands do die of the flu every year, even in Canada. Compare that number with the cases actually known of, those tested, and the number is 10%, higher than Wuhan flu which I’m hearing being variously put around 3%.

        The truth is we do not know how many people actually have either disease and until then we are relying on models and assumptions.

        Suffice it to say I am not joining the panic pandemic, I take the same sanitary precautions as usual

        1. “Thousands do die of the flu every year, even in Canada. Compare that number with the cases actually known of, those tested, and the number is 10%, higher than Wuhan flu…”

          Did Robert of Ottawa just posit that the real seasonal influenza case fatality rate is 10%? The awesome intellectual prowess of the SDA crowd, on full display as always.

          1. No, not SDA crowd, just Robert. He is deeply emotionally invested in the “even better than a flu” theory and impervious to reason.

        2. “Well, until we know how many get the virus, we cannot compare it with anything than the flu.”

          Hopeless lack of reasoning motivated by a desperate need to stay convinced that everything is fine. Even better than a flu. The power of positive thinking. Sure.

          When was the last time a flu had overwhelmed a healthcare system in a developed country?

          3. They were the most developed countries at the time.

            There is nothing new under the sun. Just new people who think their experience is unique.

          4. “There is nothing new under the sun. ”

            Ugh yeah, that and respirators and few other things.

  2. It’s a model, subject to the flaws of input and unknown variables especially useful to the career advancement of academics, something the warmunists and thermageddonites are rather fond of. My guess is we’ll have worked out how to deal with this by April.

    1. “It’s a model, subject to the flaws of input and unknown variables especially useful to the career advancement of academics, ”

      Agreed, “unknown variables”are the key words, no one know what’s the right path, only wild guesses of the “experts”.
      Only one of the “experts” will be right. Many will be right in one aspect or another.

      It may take path of destruction never seen before, regardless of what the “experts” say and do.
      With any good fortune, maybe not.
      It may take another path and run our of steam.
      That would work.

      Are I right?
      Heh … silly supposition by non expert, non academic, though no less then experts.

      1. You know what the government will say if the mass graves aren’t filled: “See, our totalitarian methods worked and now we will tackle global warming”.

  3. “Gee, if we use a dodgy model for our data, think of all the papers we can write from this and the grants we can get for investigating our ‘mistake’. We can eat well for the next few years.”

  4. I grudgingly commend the cabinet for constantly replying to these studies and reports by noting that they are models and are not reflective of what we are seeing. If only they would say this about climate change models also. This summer, presuming that these models did in fact overblow their predictions, I will be pointing to climate change models at bbqs.

    Side note – Im more than a little tired of people comparing us to Italy. ie picking the worst possible case scenario (which is now improving daily) and indicating that this is where we are guaranteed to be heading. Not in the direction of any other country.

  5. Using models to extract outside the dataset itself is not helpful. As Mark Twain said… “In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans will have joined their streets together, and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen. There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.”

    1. Precisely. I am known as a cynic or sketic because I don’t believe anythign. Well, that’s just not true; I apply my critical faculties to anything of interest presented ot me; “That’s incredible! Does it make sense?”

      1. “I apply my critical faculties …”

        No Robbie, you don’t. You never did and probably never will. You get deeply emotionally invested in one position and hold it against reason. Your current devotion to the “even better than flu” theory is an example of this.

    2. “Using models to extract outside the dataset itself is not helpful. ”

      Of course it is. Have you ever heard of representative samples? How about Law of Large Numbers? Central Limit Theorem? Sure you did not.

  6. Y2K will throw us back to the stone ages. AIDS will wipe out humanity. The Arctic will be free of Ice by 2013, and Trudeau understands quantum mechanics.

    If I never hear from another “expert”, it will be too soon. Experts are people who have opinions like everyone else. Essentially though, they’re just as dopey.

  7. Estimates of the death rate using estimated infections two weeks previously (accounting for incubation period) yield a rate of 5.7%.

    Assuming a 50% eventual infection rate, Chairman Xi may have signed the death warrants of 200 million people—higher than the body count of all previous communist regimes (including Chairman Mao’s) COMBINED.

    And rest assured his bioweapons experts are working on even more lethal viruses as we speak. The Wuhan virus is the equivalent of Hiroshima—a demonstration of the sheer destruction China is willing to wreak on nations who will not kowtow to the Red Emperor.

    1. Stalin said that a single death is a tragedy, but a million deaths are a statistic.

      Human life is cheap in China. Think of the human waves that were used during the Korean War. The troops in front were the ones who were armed, while soldiers further back would eventually get their weapons from those ahead of them who were killed.

      Even Mao boasted that he could easily sacrifice millions of his countrymen in whatever campaign he waged as he had so many more left over.

      1. That was my point exactly.

        Right now, Chairman Mao is probably toasting the success of his greatest student with the best baijiu in hell right now, with Stalin and Hitler joining in.

    2. This incident will demonstrate the futility of bio-weapns just like in WWI, you couldn’t stop the wind from blowing the poison gas back in your face.

      Mind you, politicians are now claiming even more awsome power to control the climate, so maybe they can stop the wind or tides.

      Now THAT is a truly disturbing thought.

  8. I see the insanity is filling the pages of the ardent SDA tribe. Do the numbers people, look at the rates, and then step back and compare it to everything else, there is nothing here to be worried about more than the damage the government and media are doing to the economy and everyone’s livelihoods.
    Here’s an article with actual CDC numbers for your perusal. And just so you don’t forget, the WHO started this whole nonsense with fictitious numbers.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/exclusive-evidence-shows-director-general-of-world-health-organization-severely-overstated-the-fatality-rate-of-the-coronavirus-leading-to-the-greatest-global-panic-in-history/

    2. Jane,
      There are just so many layers to this entire con that it boggles my mind. I wanted to add that the current Director General of the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, a former health minister from Ethiopia, was an active member for years with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a marxist-leninist Ethiopian political party. Apparently, his goal is socialized healthcare across the globe. I surmise that the current globalist agenda of dismantling capitalism and replacing it with marxism/communism is intricately linked to what is happening right now with this coronavirus scare and the WHO is playing its role.

    3. The WHO and it’s Ethiopian boss are looking for some $700 million in cold hard cash.
      Other peoples money.
      The GLOZIS are salivating

    4. Indiana Jane: EXACTLY this is all about the lying gov’t, lying media and how they can destroy the economy and everyone’s life!! But this is what the government wants you the people to depend on them for everything…Communism and One World Government!!

    1. Those numbers are based upon the “estimated” number of cases. Base it upon “the number who tested positive”, as we do with the Wuhan, and it’s 10%.

  10. Yeah yeah , another rushed paper based on a model concluding what the media hype is correct. Yet another garbage paper based on the science of the moment and garbage models.

    Does anyone remember Pons and Fleischmann Cold Fusion paper that was fraudulently published .

    https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/science/physics/cold-fusion-anatomy-of-a-scientific-fraud/

    ” Remember the H1N1 Pandemic? ” I Don’t Either Brian C.Joondeph, MD Swine flu came and went, leaving a far greater swath of destruction compared to the current coronavirus outbreak. Yet the reactions are far different.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/remember_the_h1n1_pandemic_i_dont_either.html

    1. One of the things that’s wrong with the research community is the overwhelming sense of needing to be first. It isn’t just the game of oneupmanship that’s constantly being played but the fact that there’s grant money, prestige, a citation or two, and even tenure at stake.

      Publishing a paper with half-baked data almost guarantees at least one more as one can then write about results obtained through subsequent analyses, comparisons with earlier findings, and so on. Then, one can always write more about reviewing what was done before because a “new and improved” method had become available since the first publication.

      One can easily milk a set of data for several papers, articles, and even books. It’s a nice way of padding one’s publication list.

      1. That doesn’t make it not real.

        The precise death toll will be, in many ways, of secondary importance (though it may be very high). Terror is the point.

        China has demonstrated how laughably easy it is to shut down large segments of western economies and throw ill- prepared barbarians into utter panic—on account of a virus that will mostly (though not exclusively) kill old and infirm people of little use to industrial capitalism. (I can imagine Chairman Xi snickering that he’s doing the imperialists a favour.)

        This will happen again, soon. And for round two, Beijing will make sure it is military-age westerners who start dropping dead—after vaccinating the PLA in advance, of course.

        1. Someone pointed to a Wattsuowiththat article, concerning the cruise ship where everyone was locked up together.
          Read the article but here are basic stats:

          83% did not get Wuhan
          17% did.
          of that 17%, 50% did not exhibit symptoms, and would not have been tested here in Canada.
          It’s a good read.

          So in Canada, a maximum of 8.5% of the population would be tested, probably less and they are saying 3% of that 8.5% will die. That’s influenza levels, or less.

          1. Even if you’re right about the precise death rate—I hope you are, but that’s a small sample—one more time: the precise body count won’t matter at the end of the day. The goal is terror.

            Wuhan virus may “only” kill as many people as a bad annual flu. The 9/11 plotters “only” killed about 3,000 people.

  12. Indiana Jane, so we are not ALL gonna die?????? Might I live till the next pandemic????

    1. Might one live? Breath, replicate, devour? Certainly! But live? Hardly. Bunker mentality breeds trouble. Once the virus is gone, the massive recession, the new restrictions, and financial pit everyone will find themselves buried in and the already doomed ship we were on is suddenly riding the rapids.

  14. Remember when WHO told us in October 2015 that by Christmas there would be 1 million deaths – and by Christmas there were ~5,000 an the total by the end of 2016 was just over 11,000. When does WHO ever underestimate any crisis.

    My own prediction: more people in Canada will die of suicide caused by our response to COVID-19 than those under 75 without severe health issues.

  15. Paper? I’ve got rolls of it. Downstairs, piled against the freezer. How many sheets do you want? We’ll start the bidding at $100.
    Didn’t feel like going to COSTCO all winter, we’re mobility challenged – no vehicle. So we stocked up a month ago. WHO knew?

  16. Why doesn’t Justin impose a ‘corona virus’ tax and we will all be better in a thrice. The carbon tax has worked so well for climate change the government is offering refunds.

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