Global Energy Forecast to 2100

A global energy demand forecast is presented to 2100 based on historic growth of per capita energy consumption, 1965-2015 and on UN low and medium population growth forecasts. The low forecast sees energy demand growing from 13.15 billion tonnes oil equivalent (toe) per annum in 2015 to 19.16 billion toe in 2100. The medium population forecast sees 29.5 billion toe in 2100, that is a rise of 124% over 2015.
Global Energy Forecast to 2100
PS Canada leads the world rankings in per capita energy use, using 9.8 toe per capita in 2008. This compares with Denmark at 3.1 toe.
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17 Replies to “Global Energy Forecast to 2100”

  1. “Canada leads the world rankings in per capita energy use, using 9.8 toe per capita in 2008. This compares with Denmark at 3.1 toe.”
    Driving distance from Copenhagen to Esbjerg on the North Sea coast: 295 km.
    Driving distance from Ottawa to Vancouver on the Pacific coast: 4300 km.
    Mean January temperature in Denmark: 1.5 °C.
    Mean January temperature in Canada (based on the interior/Prairies): −15 °C.

  2. As much as I hate and discount comparisons to the idealistic models the Euros spit out as excuses for their governance comparing Canadian to Danish energy consumption is laughable. AS bad as Canada’s governance is the Euros are a laughing stock IMHO.
    There are hardly any realistic comparables between these two economies. Last I checked the Danes do not have millions of acres of farmland, do not have a world class energy industry and do not have the 2nd largest geographic area in the world to service.
    The last thing Canadians should be worried about is their energy consumption per capita. Send these UN ‘scientist’ back to AFrica and Euroland from which they came.

  3. All you Canadanians have got to keep warm. And besides, most of your industries (mining, farming, logging) take a lot of energy.

  4. Canada also happens to be the largest developed Western country functioning in Arctic and sub-Arctic climatic conditions.
    No matter how energy efficient you try to be in Regina, you’re never going to be able to compete with Maastricht in the Netherlands, unless you’re prepared to freeze to death:
    Maastricht – Average January low 0°C.
    Regina – Average January low −20.1°C.

  5. And likely it is the connections to the rest of Europe which allows for Denmark to import energy as required from other jurisdictions and thereby not have the emissions included in their own data. Similar here in Canada…..so the Trudeau Liberals load on the emissions upstream AND downstream onto the producing provinces yet the vast majority of those emissions take place in the jurisdictions that actually use the product. In any event, Canada is a net carbon SINK. Denmark isn’t.

  6. I agree with all but the last sentence. Canadians should be worried about their per capita energy use because we will end up paying the highest carbon taxes.

  7. Ouch! Seems like I hit a raw nerve 🙁 It was not my intention. The reasons given explain a lot of the difference. And there is a pattern where high energy production / exporting countries tend to consume more, e.g Saudi Arabia.

  8. Given that Canada’s electrical production is 81% non-emitting and with an export dependent economy we therefore export energy “consumption” in the form of goods, our energy intensity can be easily reconciled based on large land mass and resultant transportation distances, low population, and cold climate. One world government watermelons like PM Butts and his sock puppet must be guilt-ridden over this evil situation so Canadians must be punished accordingly.

  9. I agree wholeheartedly with the declining population trends following industrialization of economies and wealth growth. So the low population growth rate seems appropriate.
    And where will our additional energy come from? Nuclear. It’s easy. And I believe Vlad Putin knows this BETTER than SHE does, and TOOK a big chunk of the fissionable materials marketplace in exchange of a few $ hundred million dollars. SHE only thinks of HER. SHE doesn’t think long term … because HER “term” is just about up. And Chelsea didn’t learn anything even near “science”, “technology”, or “economics” in any of her fancy education. SHE and Chelsea still thinks that “The China Syndrome” was a Documentary Film. Smh.

  10. Kenji, an American and as much as we enjoy his company as we do yours, lives in the San Francisco Bay area and is likely not the best qualified to enlighten you on “Canadian back story”. Canadians who have not consumed the CAGW coolaid and uninterested in atoning for the original sin of utilizing the resources we are blessed with tend to be a little sensitive to how we may appear to the climate Imams and their congregations as our political watermelon overlords have been ramming the carbon-based guilt down our throats while doing their best to legislate the carbon-based energy sector into stasis and decline. The reality is that resources still represent our most competitive advantage despite the fawning and preening over tech and manufacturing (declining in no small part in Ontario due to government-responsible sky-rocketing “green” energy costs). IMHO.

  11. My family utilizes a phrase to mock one another when we “miss the mark” … we say … “I kinda misunderstood the assignment”. That line is borrowed from (what my family thinks is a HILARIOUS movie: Drop Dead Gorgeous) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYwEzRZpY0A
    I kinda misunderstood the assignment. Sorry. Oops, there goes my Minnesota State ball-of-twine hat.

  12. Well said!!!! Until we Canadians draw our line in the sand as Brad Wall did’ all our energy bills will be going up!!! Trudeau and Mackenna ignore the facts! Germany’s experiment with energy failed and are now going to what they call clean coal generators! Until we stand up to the Anthropogenic fraud like Dr. Ball we will have to fight the demon!!!

  13. Well said! Until the Liberals learn which seem highly unlikely we will have to fight the demon of a Carbon tax! Brad Wall recognized this as have Germany ‘ going to clean coal generators! We Canadians must stand up to the fraud of Anthropogenic climate change as Dr. ball is doing!

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