From The People Who Bring You 100 Year Weather Forecasts

Update: watch it here.
Heads up!

Thursday night, the space agency said that the 35-foot-long satellite would probably reenter Friday afternoon or early evening (Eastern time) and that it wouldn’t be over North America at that time.
But this has proved to be a squishy situation with enormous, globe-spanning margins of error.

Update: As of 7 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 90 miles by 95 miles (145 km by 150 km). Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada, Africa and Australia, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote.
Which reminds me – could someone dig up the odds that Steve Fossett’s transpacific balloon crossing would culminate at Leader, SK?

36 Replies to “From The People Who Bring You 100 Year Weather Forecasts”

  1. Just shows you how scientific expertise has declined. We now im convinced are in a post
    scientific World.
    No one questions dogmas anymore. Progress is set in stone.
    No variations allowed.

  2. that’s funny syncro, I was considering hauling out my old hat. But the catchers…good call. Now where the hell did I put them?!

  3. Red Jeff
    thnx for the link…I call the Indian Ocean.
    kelly
    if you can’t find the hats, metal bowls, old hubcaps, bedpans and silver platters also make excellent catchers…

  4. As of 7 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 90 miles by 95 miles (145 km by 150 km).
    What the hell does that mean?
    Are they saying the flight path is oscillating up and down by 5+ miles? (I would have thought it would be an inexorable descent).
    Or do they mean it’s so wildly erratic that it’s acting like the drunk leaving the bar at 2AM?
    Why does nobody call them on the obfuscation??

  5. “.. could someone dig up the odds that Steve Fossett’s transpacific balloon crossing would culminate at Leader, SK?”
    Actually Kate, of that, the odds were quite good. Jan. 12, 1945

  6. either one of suzuki’s mansions, hamas headquarters or mecca…either one works for me.
    NASA has just issued a new statement on the re-entry of UARS: “As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry is expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote.”

  7. just in case though, it looks like the last orbit passes right over most of Saskatchewan from southwest to northeast….got a real nice helmet ready, Kate ? just in case 😉

  8. hmm..I’ve been checking the heavens-above site and for the last little while, the reported altitude has been increasing at a good clip and the track seems to be shifting slightly….wonder if it’s getting some aerodynamic lift from the thickening atmosphere under it or maybe they had a little bit of fuel left…..let’s drag out the semi-official msnbc conspiracy hat and wonder…could it be somebody wants something rebuilt ? 😉

  9. Something came down in the sky south of Saskatoon @ 8:27 PM local time. It sounds like UARS is still up, so I can only assume it was a large falling star. Better luck next time I guess.

  10. hard to extrapolate from the track without a lot of math using variables I don’t have access to but unless the orbit starts to decay a lot faster than it is at the moment, it might get another lap and the track is definitely shifting a bit…

  11. looks like it’s feet-dry over the west coast at 140km and climbing…it was 155km over the Indian Ocean…might get another orbit unless it stubs it’s toe and drops like a rock…

  12. Gotta remember the earth has a 21km bulge at the equator as compared to the poles when considering altitude.
    Plus there’s that massive fat head in Washington that’s gravitationaly sucking the life from an entire nation… pulls to the left.
    Pukezuki’s bus would be another gem Bemused!!!

  13. Snagglepuss the orbit is off centre so the satellite’s closest point is 90 miles and its farthest point is 95 miles. As the orbit degenerates the numbers will get smaller.

  14. Quick MSM or Moronic Stoned Media, someone run to David Phillips of environment Canada, he’ll know where it will fall and give his dead on predictions like… “the coming winter will be cold with a few warmer spells” or his favorite summer predictions that sound like…”the coming summer will be brutally hot because of globall warming and all the non believers in Gaia”, yea this is the wizard someone in govt. cuts a cheque to. Phillips is so stupid he couldn’t predict that Jennifer Aniston will be on a checkout counter magazine cover next week!

  15. Yep, it’s true, NASA has no clue what they’re doing. Landing multiple rovers on a planet 500 million miles away, locating planets orbiting other stars, visiting every planet in our solar system … all of that was just a fluke. How do I know? Because THEY’RE HIDING DA DECLINE!!! I saw e-mails and stuff. And, like, there’s still snow. Screw NASA. Buncha goofy elitist weirdos in white coats. WTF do they know?

  16. Any updates? I just read the rumour that falling debris was spotted near Okotoks AB (apparently there are tweets about this, I’m not a tweeter so …) No details as to ground effects if any.
    (posted 1250 am PDT)

  17. Google “uars reentry tweet” select Google page.
    The old beast still chugging along, should have a Model T soundtrack complete with backfiring.
    People seem to forget the huge mass involved takes a lot more drag to get it to quit.
    Fox News has a good uars feature on scitech but difficult to break through and get on the server.

  18. Just viewed that video, obviously a home-made spoof. Not saying the satellite hasn’t landed somewhere, but this video is just some stoner’s girlfriend tossing a burning piece of cardboard onto the ground while a stoner stomps on it to put out the fire. A dog barks in the background.
    Probably the biggest night in Okotoks in some time.
    To quote OJ Simpson, the search for the real debris field continues.

  19. Meanwhile saw a second video, six minutes of basically black skies with two people talking about seeing thirty pieces of debris (apparently still in orbit) … title says Okotoks but they sound American to me and they mention Oklahoma City.

  20. This is the spoof video (page three of the link given above)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74ksTCcgrgo&feature=player_embedded#!
    and there’s a second version posted claiming that the event took place in Chile. (pun for chilly)
    Very lame, but this is what passes for breaking news in the internet age.
    The six-minute video is being described as either an authentic video of debris still in orbit, or some confusion between debris and stationary lights on the horizon. Anyway, it’s not a video of anything to do with a debris touchdown.

  21. so it came down sometime between 2323 and 0109 EDT ? I didn’t go to bed until well after 0130 EDT and it was still supposedly at almost 140Km which was roughly where it had been for the past few hours…looks like hansen’s in charge of the satellite tracking numbers as well making up the’global warming’ ones…

  22. Well I suppose one shouldn’t be too surprised that an organization that failed to give their equipment enough fuel to do a controlled crash at the end of its mission would be the same organization that can’t track and find its own bus from outer space. I wonder how their outreach to Muslims is going. It too must be hard to track.

  23. Has the American edge in aerospace evaporated?
    Apart from being unable to track a falling satellite
    (and what then of their ability to track incoming ICBMs?) there are the little problems with the F-35
    and with the CH-148. We might say about the CH-148
    that it is just because it is for Canada only, but
    the F-35 affects the USAF in a serious way.

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