My apologies for getting to this so late – I’ve been out most of the afternoon.
Open thread. Please stay on topic.
Results at CBC, (though at certain points in the evening, they were having problems keeping the facts straight.)
From the comments, this observation – “Green Party in Que garnishes less than 4% of the vote. In the media so-called hot-bed of Kyotoism.”
Indeed.
This from reader “dast” has merit, I think;
Coyne’s analysis around his claim that Charest was Harper’s man, “and make no mistake” about it, is completely flawed. The Charest vote is a one-for-one federal liberal vote which, as things stand, is a vote for Dion. Moreover, every single anglo Quebecker would understand this to be self-evident.
If one excludes the anglo population, the fracophones are pretty evenly devided between the left and right. And I don’t mean Coyne-type pseudo “conservatives”, but the real freedom-loving types, like they have in Texas. If these right wing fracophones have voted PQ in the past, it’s probably because they found Quebec’s leftist anglos and the Coynes of the ROC so bloody offensive.
Harper’s man in this election was in fact Mario Dumont. Indeed, every single Dumont vote was already a Harper vote, and is certain to be one for the foreseable future. I’d say that right there is Harper’s majority.
While it’s evident that the MSM are factually challenged and wildly biased with regard to Harper and conservatives, many Conservatives take the MSM’s “facts” about Quebec without question. Consider that ‘Quebec separation’ is an idea that both the federal and Quebec provincial Liberals are desparate to keep alive; it’s the clan war of which they are half. The leftist Quebec media, both english and french, also owe their existance to the clan war; it’s the only narrative they know.
What is always left out of this narrative is the fact that there is absolutely zero chance of Quebec separating, and there never really was much chance. Most PQ voters don’t even consider it. Yet it’s that fiction that has kept the federal liberals in power forever. Pro-sepratation rhetoric or anti-separation rhetoric just gets Liberals elected to Ottawa. Please remember that. Separation is a fiction!
Liberal minority, ADQ in second place, Charest defeated in his riding. This should be interesting.
SOCIALISM’S DEAD! 😀
Clearly a rejection of Charest and the Libs, but is it also a rejection of the PQ and what they stand for, or a rejection only of Bosclair’s personal inclinations?
How do you say revenge of the hosers in French? What is a French hoser? Guy?
Turns out there is such a creature. And they are as sick and tired of being told what they believe, and how to think as the rest of us. Heres hoping the ROC takes notice, in particular the lemmings here in Ont.
Wonder what Dion is thinking. Isn’t this the first Prov election since Adscam. Seems the liberals are still being punished for that little episode.
Time for Harper to engineer a no-confidence vote in the House and go to the country. There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads to fortune.
Wow. I had given Quebec up for dead. I’m not yet sure what to make of Mario Dumont, but from what I’ve seen of him so far I like him. More autonomy for Quebec? Sure if it doesn’t involve handouts from the Federal Government. It all seems to fit with any small C conservative’s ideal of smaller government. It remains to be seen, but Canada may be far better off than it was yesterday.
This outcome would seem to bode well for the Conservatives in the next national election. It suggests they have an excellent chance of increasing their Quebec seats, taking significant numbers of Liberal and perhaps BQ seats. Any comment on that?
In 1976, Rene Levesque and the PQ were elected.
Pundits said Can political power will shift to Fed Libs.
Trudeau said he “best” to put Que in it’s place.(1st)
2007 defeat of leftist Libs & PQ in Que means shift to PMSH.
Media polls failed miserably to detect the ADQ strength. Did they fail or were they trying to “steer” voters to the media’s leftist position ?? Absolutely. (Most like to vote for the winner)
Well, it has been said that Quebec voters are the most savvy and informed in the country. It has certainly served them well to date. Maybe, but JUST maybe, this signals a realization by the public that separation is a dead horse and socialism is not going to work. Nahhhhhhh, I don’t buy it. It is good news to a certain degree for the CPC though.
Green Party in Que garnishes less than 4% of the vote. In the media so-called hot-bed of Kyotoism.
So how cum the editors give the Suzukis 97% of the space ?? Whats the deal, Patricia Graham, editor of the Van Sun ??
No wonder ciculation is plummeting.
Charest BARELY re-elected. Interesting times indeed.
CTV currently has it as Charest elected, CBC has it as defeated. We may have to wait a bit on that one.
Did anyone else just see the change that moved Charest in front of his PQ opposition? When they went from 183 ballot boxes counted to 187 ballot boxes counted, Charest jumped from a 120 vote deficit to a 700+ point lead over his PQ rival. I don’t know what the statistical likelihood is of getting nearly 100% of all 4 of those ballot boxes considering the near even split with PQ on previous ballot boxes, but if I were the PQ I’d be asking to see those 4 boxes as that just did not look right at all.
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and the counter-clockwise ctv spin twins, lloyd robertson and
craig oliver desperately try to imply that evil puppetmaster
stephen harper somehow made a deal with mephistopheles
to influence the outcome.
pathetic.
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Right there with you Matthew. I am absolutely not a fan of the PQ but that was a very very strange development that merits a full investigation. You’ve got an election that is split almost evenly three ways, there are no polls reported for a period of time, and tehn suddenly one candidate charges in front. It could be legit but if I was a Quebec un-Liberal, I would want it checked.
On the big picture … I like it. The Charest Quebec Liberals were too wishy-washy, too willing to be just one hair to the right of the PQ, too unable to buck political correctness. A coalition government — because that’s what it will be, the two parties are almost equal in votes and seats — will be an improvement on the status quo. Boisclair is a boat anchor dragging down the PQ, and he got re-elected. What’s not to like?
Well the good news is the greens didn’t win a seat. Polls sure wrong re support for them.
Could things look worse for Dion right now,
and could things look better for Harper?
I don’t think so.
Time to go to the polls.
Like tomorrow!
Kate
No need to apologize.
Thank you for the SDA blog.
Can anyone tell us how many fed seats are in play with the adq win of 40 seats.
Wow, Steve’s friend lost his seat. Oughta be more careful who he cozies up to, non?
Paul Wells Quebec election prediction, mere hours before the polls closed.
———————————
҉ۢ ADQ: 26% of vote, 20 seats.
• PQ: 29% of vote, 44 seats.
• PLQ: 37% of vote, 61 seats.
Libs so close to a majority that they can govern with confidence for more than a year.” PW.
————————————–
Wishful thinking, Wells ?? Trying to influence the voters, Wells ??
And to think these guys get paid !! And subscriptions cost money.
Crabgrass,
priceless,
he won it, better check the news.
Also, the conservative party and the most open supporter of Harper, just blew this thing out of the water.
Libs are funny.
Harper’s Quebec gambit has paid off in spades!!!
I could not be more happier.
The sudden shift in the polling for Charest was due to disputes from the PQ wrt to the advance polling.
Harper needs to go into the HOC tomorrow and have an altar call. He will have his majority in 30 minutes without calling an election 😉
The CBC Online did a crappy job reporting on the progress of Jean Charest’s results in Sherbrooke.
First, at 8:52, while Jean Charest was behind by several hundred votes, he was reported to have won. The CBC writer didn’t even bother to fill in what percentage of the vote he won with– it just said he won with “???” percent of the vote.
Then at 10:35 pm, when Charest started to rally, they reported that he had lost. An hour later, he was ahead by several hundred votes.
I have more details and proof (screen captures) at my blog.
The CBC really goofed. I’ll be writing to the CBC about this.
Perfect outcome! Charest got his butt kicked and that is just what I wanted, without the PQ getting the most seats. Charest’s cynical ploy to buy the election using your tax dollars and mine (to the tune of 700 million bucks)backfired and I couldn’t be happier. Maybe now the AD’s Dumont will force this pusshead to use the money in the manner in which it was intended, namely, infrastructure, medicare, education… you know, stuff they actually need!
Politics in Quebec will be nothing if not interesting in the weeks and months to come, non?
Hopefully this election is a sign of things to come in Alberta. Voters supporting Dumont are really very similar to a whole lot of us small c conservatives out here and we are all looking for a sea change.
It happened in Quebec and is probably a mood resonating throughout the country.
Gone are the days when Western Canada is going to stand for any centrist government handing over $2.2 B to QC just to see it converted to a general tax reduction and to support $7-dollar-a-day daycare, very low tuitions, forced official bilingualism, etc., etc, – while at the same time holding a debt of $120 Billion.
Go Alberta Party. Go Sask Party. Province First agendas coming up.
Stupid PQ blew it again.
Comment from “a different Bob” — “I have different opinions but I’m not the biggest basher around for sure.” I didn’t think this move was as cynical as you suggest. Charest had promised earlier (I believe) to lower taxes . . . and then did not deliver. Why did he not deliver? Well, you may recall his attempt to raise the $7 daycare fee — and people were totally up in arms. The Quebec people have been spoiled by big government and big unions and it has been very hard for Charest to move forward in such an environmnet. The “fiscal imbalance” money was for provinces to decide how best to use. Other provinces can give tax breaks if they like also. A significant issue, however is that Quebecers are the most heavily taxed people in North America. It makes sense to me that lowering taxes would be a priority for them . . . while other types of expenditures would be a priority elsewhere. As far as “bribing” people — when does government spending not benefit one group or another . . . hence anyone can interpret any spending as “bribing”. I don’t object to bribing per se . . . my gripe is with wasting. Charest deserves to continue to lead, but strength for the ADQ suggests a possible new direction in Quebec.
Hey Western Canadian:
I was born in Lachine, I’m happy the PQ imploded.
Separatists trying to leave, almost as good as East German border guards! I didn’t take any rubbish from them either.
Pass the maple syrup, crepe suzettes in the morning!
This will win the CP at least 10 and maybe 15 more seats in QC – mostly from the Bloc. the Libs will lose a couple and win a couple as the BQ’s support crumbles.
More importantly, it will mean 20+ extra seats for the CP in ON and a few elsewhere in the ROC now that PM SH has become very credible in QC (and in ALL ten Provinces for that matter).
Look for a very, very ‘tough on crime’ bill to be put forward that will be so unpalatable to all of the opposition parties (yet supported by a sizable majority of CDNs) that they will have to vote against it.
And it that doesn’t work, then the CP will be able to rule as if it has a majority for the next two to three years.
If Duceppe is intent on punting Boisclair then a leaderless BQ would facilitate the latter rather than face annihilation at the polls.
My previous comment directed to “a different Bob” was in reference to his comment: “Charest’s cynical ploy to buy the election using your tax dollars and mine.” — sorry for the inaccurate paste.
The voter support of ADQ seems to be a shift to the right by a large segment of Quebec voters.
Whether Harper can capitalize federally on the shift by calling an early election is the big
question.
The polling projections for Quebec indicating a close race appear to have been correct.
It’s not a shift the leftist media in this country cares to see.
How will the leftist Canadian media react to this movement to the right in Quebec?
By hammering Harper and conservatism on anything with negative spin, I fully expect.
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Let’s face it… this particular contest wasn’t about
anyone’s lofty statements of vision or purpose.
“The question of whether sugar shacks should
bake beans without pork to satisfy Muslim and
Jewish customers generated more public debate
than provincial debt, the healthcare system
and cultural affairs combined.”
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Interesting days ahead. The Garthacle seems confused in a deer in the headlights sort of way.
Life is good!
Syncro
Coyne’s analysis around his claim that Charest was Harper’s man, “and make no mistake” about it, is completely flawed. The Charest vote is a one-for-one federal liberal vote which, as things stand, is a vote for Dion. Moreover, every single anglo Quebecker would understand this to be self-evident.
If one excludes the anglo population, the fracophones are pretty evenly devided between the left and right. And I don’t mean Coyne-type pseudo “conservatives”, but the real freedom-loving types, like they have in Texas. If these right wing fracophones have voted PQ in the past, it’s probably because they found Quebec’s leftist anglos and the Coynes of the ROC so bloody offensive.
Harper’s man in this election was in fact Mario Dumont. Indeed, every single Dumont vote was already a Harper vote, and is certain to be one for the foreseable future. I’d say that right there is Harper’s majority.
While it’s evident that the MSM are factually challenged and wildly biased with regard to Harper and conservatives, many Conservatives take the MSM’s “facts” about Quebec without question. Consider that ‘Quebec separation’ is an idea that both the federal and Quebec provincial Liberals are desparate to keep alive; it’s the clan war of which they are half. The leftist Quebec media, both english and french, also owe their existance to the clan war; it’s the only narrative they know.
What is always left out of this narrative is the fact that there is absolutely zero chance of Quebec separating, and there never really was much chance. Most PQ voters don’t even consider it. Yet it’s that fiction that has kept the federal liberals in power forever. Pro-sepratation rhetoric or anti-separation rhetoric just gets Liberals elected to Ottawa. Please remember that. Separation is a fiction!
Thanks for the space on your blog Kate. God bless.
dast.
If giving $1 billion to Charest during an election doesn’t make him Harper’s man, then what does? With the PQ holding the balance of power, nothing will change in Quebec anytime soon: the Federal government will keep on giving Quebec money, and the Quebec government will keep on spending it to support their social programs.
One third of the vote share was for the Libs; slightly less than one third each for the other two parties. This is hardly decisive nor is it a win for Harper and the Conservatives…it’s more of a $1 billion slap in the face.
The same Quebec ridings that voted for PM Harper are the same ones at the heart of Dumon’s ADQ victory. And now spread farther.
Coyne, Kinsella, most Media and others just cannot stand the thought of a decentralized AND united Canada that is also thriving. Undisfunctional.
The days of the all powerful PMO, with it’s Privy Council of UNelected “directors” such as Maurice Strong, are over. OH CANADA !!
Good post Dast, I dont think that Charest was Harpers man either, more perhaps his useful idiot.
Charest is an old school politician from the Mulroney/Chretien days. His ideology is simply to win by saying whatever he thinks he will need to say or do – no real vision – not the kind of guy Harper would want to work with.
Dumont is very close to Harper in vision and I think integrity.
Harper however could not support Dumont specifically – that would have given the media too much a field day and might have potentially harmed Dumont.
Conservatives have lots of cash to run real polls – not the push polls that are regularly run to try to influence voters.
My thought is that the Conservatives had a pretty good idea of the lay of the land in Quebec.
The bug gets put in Charests ear that a Quebec freindly budget will favor his electoral chances. It gets telegraphed that the budget will be just that. So Charest calls an election because he beleives the media spin that Harper is trying to prop up his government.
In essence Harper played Charest into calling the election on Harpers timetable. With very little effort Harper helped Charest engineer his own defeat, assisted Dumont in establishing a strong presence in Quebec and kicked the tar out of the PQ for the forseeable future.
Like the magician who wants you looking everywhere but where the trick is, Harper was more than happy to have the national media playing the Harper/Charest story up. Dumont was his man.
The real trick though was getting Charest to take the bait.
Now the Lib minority cannot side with the PQ or they are siding with seperatists plain and simple. As such Libs will have to satisfy Dumont to stay in power.
If Dumont plays his cards right (and I think there is a guy in Ottawa who will be more than happy to give him good advice on how to do that) this will be his safe apprenticeship until such a time as the next election.
If he conducts himself reasonably Dumont will be the next Premier of Quebec and there will be nothing that Charest or the Libs or the PQ can do about it. They are hamstrung
Harper plays this game so far ahead of his rivals. That he finds himself in the catbird seat again is no accident.
Sorry, Iberia, but you are looking through the wrong end of the telescope. Harper is the big winner.
For over 35 years Conservatives in Quebec who opposed the separatists had to vote for the provincial Liberals. Conservatives who didn’t want to vote Liberal could only protest by voting PQ.
This polarization has been shattered by the ADQ, who in spite of their acronym serve as the de facto provincial Conservative party of Quebec.
The PQ have been relegated to third place and people no longer have to default vote any more for one of two diametrically-opposed parties.
In the next federal election federalist vote outside of Montreal will now strategically vote Conservative. Combined with more leakage of Bloc vote to the Conservatives outside of Montreal, the Harper Conservatives are now poised to win at least thirty-five seats in Quebec,which will probably give the Conservatives the plurality of Quebec’s 75 seats.
Dion is toast since the federal Liberals can no longer fearmonger about separation.. The Bloc will now have more MP’s announcing they will not be running.
Harper majority just around the corner.
Cicero:
You are forgetting that Quebeckers are a fickle lot. They will normally vote whichever way will give them the biggest advantage with the federal government. Those who were tired of Charest and couldn’t stomach Boisclair voted for Dumont. If Dumont had won a majority, or even a strong minority, then I would admit that you are right.
As it stands now, the vote share is fairly evenly split. All it will take is one polarizing issue and that will change overnight…it will be interesting to see what happens when Harper tries to force his NCC platform on Quebeckers.
The seat numbers show the magnitude of the effect in this election. The Quebec Liberals lost 24 seats going from 72 to 48, the PQ lost 9 seats, going from 45 to 36, and the ADQ gained 36 seats, going from 5 to 41 and forming the official opposition. Given that the Liberals have much more in common with the ADQ than they do with the PQ, I’d say that Quebec’s new alliance is pretty much a done deal.
The CBC says that “Dumont’s party came up from behind and gained favour with voters in several key ridings, which responded to […] his common-sense message that includes tax cuts and child-care credits”. Image that, the CBC calling tax cuts common sense. I wonder why they don’t think that the $8.2 billion in tax cuts in the proposed federal budget are common sense?
CTV, in their current web article on the matter, call the ADQ the “right wing” party, twice. Of course that’s nonsense, they’re not right wing, they’re just right of center, but anyway, they just gained 36 seats. That is going to effect government policy in Quebec, and in the right (ahem) direction.
The human social phenomenon is a bit like a pendulum. It keeps seeking the center, and then momentum carries us past that, until the arc reverses and we head back toward the center. The pendulum in Canada has been swinging to the left for some decades now; history would suggest that at some point it will trend back toward the center. After the last year’s developments per Mr. Harper, and Mr. Stelmach, and now Mr. Dumont, perhaps we are now seeing the signs of a sea change in the course of Canada’s ship of state.
Congratulations to Mario Dumont, for shaking up this election race. Harper should be celebrating tonight.
Dast has it right. A good result.
Mario Dumont shares the initials and follows in the footsteps of another conservative nationalist, Quebec’s greatest premier, Maurice Duplessis. If you ever have the time, you should read Conrad Black’s excellent biography on the man who was way ahead of his time. Duplessis wasn’t afraid to do what was necessary for democracy to work, and he was a leader who knew how to build consensus. If he were around today, Muslim terrorists and liberal Jews wouldn’t have nearly as much influence as they do. Mario Dumont has many of the same qualities, and with more exposure and growing coffers will be able to take the next election and get Quebec back to its traditional roots. It’s high time the Church regained its influence in Quebec, and the Quiet Revolution was relegated to the dustbin of history. They say the 60’s are over, and I couldn’t agree more.
“I wonder why they (the CBC) don’t think that the $8.2 billion in tax cuts in the proposed federal budget are common sense?”
Don’t know about you, Vitruvius, but I didn’t see a dime in tax cuts. Maybe the CBC rightly saw the pandering to special interests for what it was.
It’s Citoyen Dion’s fault. LibDion told the Quebec voters to kick out Liberal Charest. Liberal Dion advised/told/bullied the Quebecers to vote for Dumont-ADQ. Dion, the Bully, lost.
…-
Mr. Dumont said voters had made history. “One by one today, Quebecers went to the polling stations to write a page of history. They have closed a chapter and opened another,” he told cheering supporters in Rivière-du-Loup. “Quebec had entered the 21st century in terms of economics and culture. Today Quebec has entered the 21st century politically.”…-
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1807360/posts
I couldn’t be happier with the Quebec outcome. This had alot to do with Quebec autonomy but even more to do with reasonable accomodation.
I do believe that political correctness is on the way out in the Belle Province. Mr. Dumont was the only one who had the guts to bring this subject up.
Way da go Quebec!
Dumont has flip-flopped so many times in his political career, we really don’t know what this result means.
Separation is fiction? Drat. Oh well, there’s always hope.