Trump announces major Venezuela oil deal, and what it means for Canada
The timing of this, in the midst of a major trade dispute between Canada and the US, as well as the impending Alberta independence referendum, if likely no coincidence. Trump may have just played his trump card, as it were. If our biggest customer of our most valuable product no longer needs or wants it, what are we to do?
Now Hiring: Project Greenland. “Stampede Drilling Inc. is headed north for Project Greenland, part of a major Arctic drilling campaign, and we’re looking for a tough, experienced crew ready to take on the cold and get the job done right.”
If this makes you think of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s famous ad, I’m with you. That one said, “Men wanted for hazardous journey. Low wages, bitter cold, long hours of complete darkness. Safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in event of success.”
*Note – due to a glitch, this is a republished post.
Tammy Nemeth & Ron Wallace: Two standards for one Canada
Another tale of what’s good for Eastern Canada differs significantly from what’s allowed for Western Canada.
Energy Realities Podcast: The World On Edge Fuel Rationing Begining
Brian Zinchuk: Let’s get serious about shipping oil from Hudson Bay
West Texas Intermediate is at its lowest point in over a year. This, despite the Ukraine war still going on, and supertankers being targeted in the Red Sea.
If you weren’t paying attention, they’re going through the floor in recent days.
That’s how oil markets are acting. All geopolitical risk is gone, as oil prices are at their lowest point since last December for WTI, and February, 2021, for WCS.
Spend your Moe Money wisely, because you won’t likely see that again.
Last month I wrote this on the price of oil:
A correction is now overdue and I suspect we see $65 before a significant move above $70. The only bearish signal is US+Canada production growth.
The Brent front month corrected to ~$63 and now stands on $64.37. Art Berman has an interesting article Oil Price Crossroad recognising that we are now in the territory of market indecision. The IEA OMR is confusing saying both “rebounding US production underpinned non-OPEC output growth” and “Non-OPEC output dropped by 175 kb/d in January” (I think the former is YoY and the latter MoM). Below the fold I simply try to look at the bare facts.
Oil Production Vital Statistics February 2018
Putting it all together, I see a Brent oil price of at least $80 / bbl one year from now.
There are several other factors discussed below which suggest that the oil price rally may continue.
oil production vital statistics