Last week Charles Adler interviewed Michael Marzolini from Pollara. What caught my ear was the pollster’s editorializing that Canadians were concerned about our economic prospects – due to sluggishness of the US economy and what we “saw for themselves” (or words to that effect) of the gloomy employment situation south of the border.
Canadians’ concerns that the U.S. economy will worsen in 2007 has body-checked Canada’ four-year trend of ever-increasing economic optimism, according to a new national poll released this morning by Michael Marzolini, Chairman of POLLARA Inc., at a breakfast meeting of the Economic Club of Toronto.
I waited for the followup – qualification by Marzolini that those perceptions are largely inaccurate and that the US economy continues to outperform our own. That didn’t happen. Instead, what followed was more evidence that we in Canada are routinely fed “findings” by pollsters who are negligently uninformed, analysed by media too lazy to confirm whether the premises – much less the conclusions – are valid.
Of course, he’s not alone;
The Canadian Chamber says Canada’s average annual real GDP growth will be 2.8 per cent in 2006 when all the numbers are counted, but that GDP growth will slow to 2.4 per cent in 2007. There are several factors for the projected slowdown, but key is lower U.S. demand for Canadian exports as a result of continuing economic weakness south of the border.
The Chamber projects that the Canadian economy will limp home as 2006 concludes, struggling to reach 2 per cent growth in the final quarter.
I cite that source not for the Chamber’s take on expectations or opinion on American prospects, but for the figure of 2.8% growth rate in the Canadian economy for 2006. Now, let’s look at that struggling American economy.
Economists are hastily upgrading their forecasts for the US economy after a series of surprisingly strong reports suggesting the so-called “soft landing” may be over and growth is accelerating.
Over the past week, surprises have come in stronger-than-expected reports on US job creation, the trade balance and retail sales — all key contributors to economic activity.
Lehman Brothers chief US economist Ethan Harris on Friday boosted his forecast for fourth quarter 2006 growth to an annualized rate of 3.3 percent, a leap from the firm’s prior call for just 2.0 percent growth.
And all those jobless workers?
The latest data showed US employers added a healthy 167,000 new jobs in December, with unemployment holding at a low 4.5 percent. Average wages were up 4.2 percent annually.
That’s right – the national rate in the US is still 1.5% below that of Canada’s 30 year lows.
What most are aware of however, is that our economic growth isn’t evenly distributed. Unemployment rates in Calgary are around 2% at the moment, while Quebec’s contribution to those “lowest jobless numbers in 30 years” is 7.5%.
Now, over to Joan Tintor, who interrupts the 24 hour coverage of global warming to provide this little-reported bookend.
Ontario slips into negative growth in third quarter; GDP minus 0.1 per cent
[…]
This is Ontario’s first quarter of negative GDP growth since the SARS-induced recession of 2003. Before that, the last negative-growth quarters were in 1992. It’s certainly the first negative growth on McGuinty’s watch.
News which is sure to send media outlets back to the pollsters to ramp up the message that the “sagging” US growth and employment rates are dragging our “more bouyant” Canadian economy down.
(More data)
Update – Michael Marzolini responds in the comments.
Related – “You gotta love Decima, if they didn’t exist the Liberals would have to create them.”