Mann hockey stick co-author Bradley:
…the biggest “miss” was an apparently very warm year in the late 19th century that we did not get right at all. This makes criticisms of the “antis” difficult to respond to (they have not yet risen to this level of sophistication, but they are “on the scent”). Furthermore, it may be that Mann et al simply don’t have the long-term trend right, due to underestimation of low frequency info. in the (very few) proxies that we used. We tried to demonstrate that this was not a problem of the tree ring data we used by re-running the reconstruction with & without tree rings, and indeed the two efforts were very similar — but we could only do this back to about 1700. Whether we have the 1000 year trend right is far less certain (& one reason why I hedge my bets on whether there were any periods in Medieval times that might have been “warm”, to the irritation of my co-authors!).”
Oh the travails of attempting to fit hocus pocus theories and computer models to chaotic events in the real world — especially when certain very important trees apparently don’t get the memos!
My dad said….
“A liar needs a damn good head-piece….
He has to remember both the truth and the lie.
…then he needs to remember the lie to cover up the lie…
…and the lie to cover up the last lie….
After at bit the memory breaks down and he gets caught….inevitable…….
There is a reveered way to express this:
“oh, what a tangled web we weave….”
I adopted that wisdom….
It’s not that I am virtuous….
I’m am just too lazy to go to all that trouble…
I simply have to member the truth.
BTW…the truth does not always defend you or set you free.
No wonder the MSM are ignoring this. Is this comb over of the old emails supposed to be Anthony “missed by a million” Watts idea of science?
As for Ray Bradley, who is a real scientist, here is a quote from a paper nine years after the [2000] expression of uncertainty. No longer hedging his bets; even has an explanation.
// Global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years, but the spatial patterns have remained poorly defined. We used a global climate proxy network to reconstruct surface temperature patterns over this interval. The Medieval period is found to display warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally. This period is marked by a tendency for La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific.
The coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age are observed over the interval 1400 to 1700 C.E., with greatest cooling over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents. The patterns of temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes involving El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation–Arctic Oscillation. //
Written with Mann, et. al. Available online. Includes a hockey stick graph. Read some real science.
It leaves me truly bemused how Dizzy can miss the point here. This is Ray Bradley denouncing the quality of the work he did with his co-author Mike Mann. Dizzy, your silly links simply lead to more Mann non-science.
You also seem to miss the point that the thrust of MBH98 was to show that the MWP didn’t exist. Now, according to Bradley, it’s back.
We are indeed looking for real science, but none of it’s coming from you.
When will these assholes give up their facade? They have been totally disgraced, proved wrong and shown to be frauds. They are criminals trying to mug the entire planet. Why aren’t they all in jail?
I watched that clip of a day or two ago regarding the meeting of four scientist skeptics. I noted that most of that panel were totally ignorant of science, the solar system and much of the jargon that was being used. I heard one of the panel say this in a condescending tone. “well I’m glad we had them here” Implying that now that we have allowed these heretics to have their say, we can get on with the business of extorting money from those who are too afraid to disagree …. mainly our weak-kneed politicians.
I am embarrassed to be in the here in now. Never have we seen such a degradation in our once free society.
Dizzzy
Bradley questions his OWN science, and that is as it should be
consensous my A$$
Disagreement [or undertainty] about some aspect of a paper discussed in a 2000 email about which he is an expert , followed by further studies & a recent paper showing new work progressing toward a more detailed explanation of the period [written by BOTH Mann & Bradley] is the way things work in science.
Continuing to obsess about “MBH98” like McIntyre [& apparently you] is the way things work in the “Teach the Controversy” PR campaign.
No one denied the MWP happened. They were trying to measure & account for it.
In any case, this is about the shaft, not the blade.
&
// Dizzy, your silly links simply lead to more Mann non-science //
I gave two links. One was to the email Watts was so excited about & which wasn’t given here. A sliver of a continuing conversation about the work they do — happens all the time in science. Proves nothing itself.
The second is to a paper in Science by Bradley & Mann etc Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly
It argues the results of the science they have done. A taste [the final paragraph} —
// The paleoclimate reconstructions presented here hold important implications for future climate change. For example, if the tropical Pacific thermostat response suggested by our analyses of past changes applies to anthropogenic climate change, this holds profound implications for regional climate change effects such as future drought patterns. Continued refinement of paleoclimate reconstructions through expanded proxy databases and refinements of CFR methodology, improved estimates of past radiative forcing, and a better understanding of the influence of radiative forcing on large-scale climate dynamics should remain priorities as we work toward improving the regional credibility of climate model projections. //
So. Study some science OR keep fossicking about in old emails. The choice is yours.
I don’t suppose a white christmas is on the cards?
“As luck would have it, these are precisely the trees that give the chance to build temperature records for most of the Holocene. I am confident that, before AD1850, they do contain a record of decadal-scale growth season temperature variability. I am equally confident that, after that date, they are recording something else.”
[Malcolm Hughes]
Dam trees go off and record something else. Why, was the water too wet?
Dizzy! AGW does not have any Science Experts. They are just a bunch of crack-heads each with a pestering habit.. If you want to quote Science
you must provide real NAMES & Numbers. Opinion NOT
Dizzy,
A fitting moniker!
What is it about “…they have not yet risen to this level of sophistication…” that makes me think Bradley used to get wedgies in high school?
Dizzy, the Arctic was ice free and populated with conifer trees 800,000 years ago, during the Quaternary. You can Google it and learn some real science yourself. The planet has warmed and cooled dramatically especially during the Quaternary, which hosted both the Wisconsin and Illinois ice ages. Humans don’t cause climate changes. Only in their minds.
When members of the Rent-Seeker Tribe start to question their own bilge, it’s over. Nobody with half a brain is buying what you’re selling.
Dizzy got its peepee soundly whacked in comments over at WUWT, then it puts its tail between its legs and posts the same drivel over here.
Just think….Greenland…Vikings living and farming..thats to just to much thought..//
Dizzy, your 4:57 post is rubbish. The whole point is that Bradley proclaims in public what he does not accept in person. That makes him a self-proclaimed liar. Second, for one of now many of the senior gurus of climate science to have such doubts about paleo reconstructions means that de facto there is no consensus, not even among the AGW priesthood.
You may dismiss them as “a bunch of old emails” but they are in fact the smoking gun which show that you and the rest of the AGW brigade are nothing more than lying propagandists with an ulterior agenda and that your claim to scientific evidence is nothing but smoke and mirrors.
It’s easy, and fun, to shorten any conversation on this subject with Dizzy’s sort. It can be summed up in one sentence, which I believe cuts to the core of the matter:
“Sorry, you’re not going to be placed in charge of the entire world’s economy–grow up.”
Michael Mann is to science what Jerry Sandusky is to youth mentoring.
“crack-heads” “A fitting moniker!” “peepee soundly whacked” “conifer trees” “Nobody with half a brain is buying” “self-proclaimed liar” “smoking gun” “grow up.”
What a clucking cacophany in response to posting text & links from an actual science paper. Sorry !
No arguments, though, so there’s not much to say. [ I don’t bark back at dogs either. ]
cgh if you thing Bradley is lying, take it up with those who are using his email remark as proof of ….. something or other.
And gordinkneehill, I posted here first. WATTSville is a waste of time, but since I had a post, I just dropped it there.
If the quality of the responses here are any indication, it’s not worth checking back.
[& if you want to be taken seriously, not talking like a six-year-old would be a good atart]
BOO !!
Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, M. K. Hughes, R. S. Bradley, S. K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni, 2008. http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/mann2008.pdf “> Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 105, 36, doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105.
Bradley, R.S., 2008. http://www.geo.umass.edfaculty/bradley/bradley2008a.pdf “>Holocene perspectives on future climate change. In: R.W. Battarbee and H.A. Binney (eds.) Natural Climate Variability and Global Warming: a Holocene Perspective. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, 254-268.
Bradley, R.S., and England, J.H., 2008. http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/bradley2008.pdf “>The Younger Dryas and the Sea of Ancient Ice. Quaternary Research, v. 70, p. 1-10.
Besonen, M. R., W. Patridge, R.S. Bradley, P. Francus, J.S. Stoner and M.B. Abbott, 2008. http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/besonen2008.pdf “>A record of climate over the last millennium based on varved lake sediments from the Canadian High Arctic. The Holocene, 18,1, 169-180, doi: 10.1177/0959683607085607.
Bradley, R.S., 2002. http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradley2002.pdf “>Climate change — past, present and future: a personal perspective. In: Challenges of a Changing Earth. (Eds: W. Steffen, J. Jäger, D.J. Carson and C. Bradshaw). Springer Verlag, Berlin, 109-112..