Roger Pielke Jr: The figure below updates the time series of Munich Re’s disaster loss record as a proportion of global GDP.
(Updated for a correction — the original post showed the wrong chart.)
Roger Pielke Jr: The figure below updates the time series of Munich Re’s disaster loss record as a proportion of global GDP.
(Updated for a correction — the original post showed the wrong chart.)
Kate, the chart you show is misleading.
Pielke published a chart showing declining ACTUAL disaster losses as a percentage of GDP.
If losses remain constant and GDP is falling, then that graph naturally has to rise. If losses increase but GDP increases faster, the graph will fall.
Losses as a percentage of GDP doesn’t seem like a particularly informative measure to me.
Ah… the long-term trend is declining. Still, I don’t think that weather losses as a percent of global GDP is a very good measure.
All countries have creative ways to fudge their GDP, and the method of reporting GDP in some countries is subject to change to put a happy face on flailing economies.
That said, the monetary losses reported by insurers is probably a good number. But then the fudging begins with “adjusted for inflation” and who knows how each country measures inflation?
There is an error in your analysis. If the numerator increases at a greater rate than the denominator the ratio will go up. If the denominator increases at a faster rate than the numerator the ratio will go down. A downward trend means the losses either decreased or increased at a lower rate than the GDP (which increases every year on average).
I think the point is, you can’t just look at increasing losses as bad. You have to look at them relative to some metric that normalizes the losses (GDP is good). Otherwise a single home burning up in 1967 that cost $35,000 compared to a single home in 2024 costing $3.5 million (same area) would signal a 100 times increase in losses (which is technically correct but is misleading).
Glad to see the word ‘actuary’. Time for an actuarial posting of Canadian Healthcare costs per individual. Is it zero sum cost per lifetime investment of an individual? Is Canadian healthcare really free, or does it contribute to Canada’s ever increasing debt?
The above are all good comments. Also, keep in mind that Reinsurance companies like Munich Reinsurance Group are not a static operation. They are constantly acquiring companies and taking on new risk. This is especially true in the Reinsurance Market. Additionally, companies are offloading expenses and costs. One of the ways they do this is by taking on less risk in their Self-Insured Retention programs. Who takes on this discarded risk? Well, that would be the Reinsurer.
This is nonsense mostly. It is propaganda for a cause, surely.
Political Junkie @ 6.51: +1
And then, from the graph above: “Source: Air2020 (modelled losses)”.
So, more computer modelling GIGO…..
“Modelled losses”. Says all one needs to know.
Especially after the soon to be un-lamented Xiden administration, any chart like this that does not at least try to account for inflation is worthless.
Costal population of Florida is 68 times higher than it was in 1900.
Although hurricanes frequency hasn’t really changed, or may have decreased slightly, the “target” got 68 times bigger. No wonder the number of damaged homes has gone up.
The cause?
Air Conditioning.
Link for the above
https://x.com/BjornLomborg/status/1878787888835416460?
Sorry about the chart, I’d have corrected the post sooner but I was on airplanes for most of the past two days.
Many organizations are in on it. Insurance Bureau of Canada is fully invested in pushing the narrative.
“IBC and its members have been calling on governments for nearly a decade to take action to adapt to Canada’s changing climate.”
https://www.ibc.ca/news-insights/news/summer-2024-shatters-records-for-severe-weather-damage-over-7-billion-in-insured-losses-from-floods-fires-and-hailstorms
Harmless message with a link to IBC propaganda trapped in moderation purgatory.
It was IBC demanding more action from the government to combat climate change. It was also making similar claims as the article in question.
But, but, but … the chart is gonna look very, very different when the losses of the … “global warming sparked” … LA Fires are added. The single greatest loss in dollar amount of any natural disaster in the history of the USA.
Kenji, what percentage of these California fires were arson or accidentally started by meth heads?
Under normal conditions, in the U.S. official estimates say that over 50% of forest fires are man-made.
IPCC doesn’t publish readily available forest fire data – too messy.