St. Louis Fed Quietly Finds US Is Now In A Recession
In recent weeks, we have seen a burst of unexpected truthiness out of various regional Fed banks, a sharp contrast to the constant barrage of prevarication out of the Federal Reserve.
First, it was the Philadelphia Fed which effectively revised what was according to the BLS a gain of 1.1 million jobs to just 10,500 jobs, meaning that the Fed was looking at erroneously overstated, arguably politicized data, as it unleashed its burst of 75bps rate hikes in June… which happened just as June jobs number turned negative.
More: Oil’s rough start to the year deepened as a weakening demand outlook came to the fore amid predictions for a US recession, China’s struggle with Covid-19 and milder winter weather. West Texas Intermediate fell below $75 a barrel after sinking 4.2% on Tuesday.
Most government provided numbers cannot be trusted, in the same way that Clintonites claimed that in his last year he was running a surplus, despite the debt increasing….
I wonder just how bad it will get?
Oil down to $75/barrel, gas up to $1.50 litre…
Ah, Point 13 on the “DemocraticMSM Economy Talking Points”:
1) there is no threat of inflation due to the government borrowing then “spending” a trillion dollars
2) there is no inflation, like we said
3) there is some inflation, but not everywhere, and its not bad, so point 1 stands, please ignore point 2
4) there is some inflation in some minor areas such as fuel, housing and food, but its manageable
5) its only for a short time, just like two weeks to flatten the COVID curve, remember then?
6) inflation is actually good, Colbert says so, and who would know better than a celebrity millionaire?
7) the government has a plan for inflation if it ever really becomes a for real problem for real people
8) you’ll love wage and price controls…
9) its corporate greed that somehow didn’t exist two years ago, just started overnight
10) did we mention the inflation that isn’t happening, but would be great, is Putin’s fault?
11) overturning Roe will damage the economy
12) CTRL/H inflation/stagflation
13) CTRL/H stagflation/recession
14) CTRL/H recession/New Great Depression
Note: blame the Republicans is taken for granted for being 1a), etc.
A recession is nothing more than negative sentiment in a stalled economy. The real damage is done when the economy slows from 3% to 0%, not when it drops from 0% to -0.3%. There is a time lag of ~18 months before the effects are fully felt. In addition to the economic slowdown we are faced with runaway inflation. The government loves to give away money, creating debt in the process. That debt belongs to you. The government creates the debt, the debt creates inflation, and the government gives itself a raise to compensate for a problem that it created. Remember that the next time you walk into a voting booth.
San Fransicko’s largest private employer, SalesForce … announced a 10% cut of their workforce this morning. More high tech laying off huge chunks of their employees.
And The Fed keeps destroying the asset value of helpless Americans …
This country is already in a recession and has been for a while, despite what the authorities would have us believe.
The tremendous inversion of the yield curve has been indicating recession for some time now. Business demand for capital is falling, not rising. Yet few in the mainstream financial media have ever bothered to recognize this.
Over time, the mantra will switch from “any recession, if it comes to that, will be mild” to “we know the recession is severe, but an upturn is just around the corner”.
Masters of the Obvious, episode 9,915.