2019 Election Prediction Contest

2019 Federal Election 80 Comments

Let’s see how smart you really are: Make your 2019 seat distribution prediction now.

Parliament at dissolution:

To simplify the process, please use this template.

Liberal:
Conservative:
NDP:
Bloc:
Green:
Other:

Please use the open thread for supplementary commentary/discussion. The reader who comes nearest to the final outcome will receive their choice of a free book, from the SDA Free Book Library.

80 Replies to “2019 Election Prediction Contest”

  1. Liberal: 132
    Conservative: 178
    NDP: 14
    Bloc: 6
    Green: 8
    Other: 0

    Disclaimer: asked my cat for advice first.

    1. I am PROFOUNDLY saddened to see just how FAR Canada has tipped LEFT. At least we are clinging to a near 50-50 divide here in the States. It’s touch and go, but most Americans support a President who makes the economy GO! And boy, howdy, how GREAT PDJT has made our economy. Anyone who likes to WORK for their living supports a POTUS like PDJT!

      I hope at least HALF my Canadian Brothers and Sisters (no Xe’s) believe in an honest day’s work and a thriving Free Marketplace. Which is anathema to PM Socks-in-Puss (yes, I’ve heard he is transitioning … so he’s got a puss … he is a puss)

  3. Liberal:138
    Conservative: 148
    NDP:20
    Bloc:14
    Green:4
    Other:14
    Sad to say I think the media and Skippy missing the debates will work in the lib’s favour…

  5. Liberal: 168
    Conservative: 144
    NDP: 2
    Bloc: 14
    Green: 8
    PPC: 2

    Strong Liberal win, and Greens and NDP will throw support behind leaving the CPC to rebuild and hopefully not pick a huge pussy as their next leader.

  7. Liberal: 142
    Conservative: 130
    NDP: 42
    Bloc:: 12
    Green: 6
    Other: 6

    As I went through this exercise, I couldn’t help but think… “What does it really matter?…. especially when these parties mostly represent the ‘illusion’ of choice”

  9. Liberal: 122, 36.1%
    Conservative: 162, 47.9%
    NDP: 28, 8.3%
    Bloc: 10, 3.0%
    Green: 12, 3.6%
    Other: 4, 1.2%

    And I also bought a lottery ticket this morning. I’m sad socks isn’t running in all ridings, we could see them wiped out entirely.

    Tantalus shall tease the CPC being close to a majority but not quite enough. One hopes that little potato will continue to make a hash of his own party and there may be some defections along the way.

  10. Lib: 172
    Con: 140
    NDP: 12
    BQ: 10
    Green: 2
    Other: 2

    … and then the Alberta separation movement begins in earnest.

      1. Where can I get one? Was also thinking of a Canadian flag with rainbow colours and Pepe in clown costume honking his nose. Anyone got a link?

        1. Search hudson’s bay company flag on Amazon. They are way too pricey. I’m sure they are much cheaper elsewhere. I also like the version with punctuation.

          For they queer flag – find the first ugly lesbian with purple hair – she would have several.

  12. Liberal: 159
    Conservative: 141
    NDP: 17
    Bloc: 12
    Green: 7
    Other: 2

    I hope to heck I’m wrong, but I do not have much faith in the Canadian electorate.

  14. I’m of the opinion that the libs are about to be handed a Kim Campbell level pounding. Far too many of the lib MP’s are declining to run in this election and I suspect they know it’s coming and didn’t want the humiliation. The Greens will likely pick up about 10 seats at the expense of the NDP

    1. exactly. if *anything* comes out of this election, let it be the neeeeewdemocraps get CLOBBERED and
      the sikh terrorist tolerator gets heaved by the *party* in the process as well. back to being sans a seat in parliament.
      heh heh heh.

  17. Governments are master brokers in plunder and pillage – every election is a multi-ring advance auction of stolen goods.
    Paraphrased comment by the venerable H.L. Mencken (as I recall, anyway)

  20. Liberal: 152
    Conservative: 134
    NDP: 19
    Bloc: 6
    Green: 22
    Other: 5

    NDP are imploding, their support will go largely to the Greens.

  22. A more interesting prediction is how many refuse to vote?

    After all, if you vote Conservative, you are voting for Andy Sche(m)er’s vision of Canada – not a palatable idea to anyone with brains, or a heart.

  25. Liberal – 192 (Canadians will go with the devil they know)
    Conservative – 80 (Andy will collapse like a house of cards within 10 days)
    NDP – 15 (a none issue)
    Bloc -15
    Green – 2 (2 too many)
    PPC – 1 (unfortunately!!)
    Ind – 3

    Voter turnout will be one of the lowest in Canadian history because Andy doesn’t have fire in his belly.

    It was his on a silver platter and he has blown it.

    Coulda had MAX.

  26. Liberal: 158
    Conservative: 138
    NDP: 18
    Bloc: 12
    Green: 9
    Other: 3

    Not that it really matters, as I’ve been saying for some time. Trudeau, Scheer, other .. all steer a leftward course. It’s just the speed that changes, and that only a little.

  27. I predict a CPC majority featuring a Bloc resurgence and Conservatives / Liberals basically swapping seat numbers as voters put the Libs into the penalty box again:

    Liberal: 91
    Conservative: 177
    NDP: 39
    Bloc: 24
    Green: 4
    Other: 3

    Also I predict that within a month after the election that JT will step down as Liberal Leader prior to the announcement of the Scheer-led corruption probe into the prior Gov’t.

  28. Cons: 151
    Libs: 139
    PPC: 21
    NDP: 18
    Grn: 7
    Ind: 2

    Cons will need PPC to take power. We will see if the PPC will give up their independence to get into power.

  29. Unfortunately, a minority gov’t ….and in this case, the extreme left will hold balance of power.

    Conservative 163
    Liberal 144
    NDP 10
    Bloc 15
    Green 1
    People’s 5
    Other 0

    1. For an actual prediction, I would go with

      Liberal 138
      CPC 148
      NDP 28
      Green 4
      Bloc 10
      other 10
      (would include 4 PPC and a whack load of indies)

      No stable coalition available, second election within a year

  34. I predict that everyone on this thread is going to be surprised for the across Canada support for the PPC. There is a huge uprising among the people. They are mad at the same old, same old way of doing things. The PPC platform is bringing in voters who have not voted for years. They are getting dissatisfied libs, cons, and ndp as well as some greens. I predict a minority government led by the PPC while the opposition will be the CPC. The libs will be lucky to maintain party status. The greens will get more than the ndp. I also think the ndp could lose party status. Read the PPC platform and tell me what there is that you do not like. Just my opinion, and I do not believe the polls as they are bought and paid for.

    1. There are too many folks who show up at Maxime’s rallies to only poll at 3-4%
      More candidates than LPC or NDP right now.
      The #PPC platform is very refreshing and exactly what Canada needs.
      Scheer got elected CPC leader however he has no experience in cabinet; was never a minister and has not much of a professional background prior to politics.
      Scheer is very similar to Trudeau in his speeches and no wonder he can’t outdistance the worse PM in history….

    2. The PPC will be lucky to win 1 seat. The Rhinos just nominated a guy named Max Bernier to run against Max Bernier in The riding of Beauce. That should help.

  35. Liberal – 155
    Conservative -127
    NDP – 22
    Bloc – 14
    Green – 14
    PPC– 6

    Pandy Andy Scheerdeau is just not ready. Neither is Justin but hey, Canada.

  39. Lib: 150
    Con: 160
    NDP: 4
    BQ: 4
    Green: 2
    PPC: 18

    NDP vote collapses helping ol’ cotton socks. PPC does well in Quebec and picks up a few elsewhere.

    Look, no one in Quebec is going to vote Scheer and the BQ is a tired old horse and the Trudeau is still detested; but the Liberal vote buying machine is well respected.

  41. Liberal: 22
    Conservative: 115
    NDP: 18
    Bloc: 5
    Green: 1
    PPC: 177

    The LibCons Merry-Go-Round ends…

    The Liberals will get decimated and no one really trusts Scheer and the CPC.

    1. No one trusts Andy Milkstache? Can’t think of a reason why!

      But, seriously, Andy is the Laurentian firewall. The strongest pillar of the Liberal Party. Here’s hoping for a spectacular knife fight amongst the Conservatives after their defeat, but they are probably too bloodless and pathetic to succeed even in providing post-election entertainment.

  42. Liberal: 171
    Conservative: 147
    NDP: 12
    Bloc: 4
    Green: 4
    Other: 0

    RCMP pulls a permanent Jack Horner regarding the Obstruction by The King of Canada. #WeAreAllTrudeaupiansNow

  43. Liberals: 139
    Conservatives: 145
    NDP: 25
    BQ: 12
    Green: 13
    Other: 4
    …and we get a Liberal/NDP/Green/CBC coalition government.

  44. Liberal: 161
    Conservative: 102
    NDP: 8
    Bloc: 11
    Green: 8
    PPC: 18

    Then we see the strongest push ever for Alberta independence and maybe western separation. That’s my hope should there be a Lib victory; the message from the ROC to the west would be, “F*ck off and die! But first, where’s your wallet?”

  46. Canadians are stupid. Say hi to the Libtard/Greentard government, thanks to Max.
    The end of Canaderp.

    Liberal 148
    Cons 150
    Greentards 24
    DipCommies 15
    Max 1

  48. Thieves and Crooks 123
    Sheep 168
    Commie Bastards 27
    Grifters 14
    Eco terrorists 2
    The Rest 4
    Andy2% makes JWR Speaker of the Black Bottomless Pit and Max wins his and another on the North Shore. I get drunk and kicked off of twitville.

  50. Liberal: 159
    Conservative: 139
    NDP: 7
    Block: 25
    Green: 6
    Other: 2

    Liberal / Block majority coalition government run from Quebec. Meltdown of NDP support. Block resurgence. Greens have their (tiny) moment in the sun. Maybe 2 independents (PPC, Other).

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