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The Pence Principle
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Trump The Establishment
Got shorts on some of the top 10 US corps that have 50+% revenue stream out of China. They’re doing pretty good as front month bets.
Now is the time for Trump to hit Chinese goods with another $100 billion in import duties. They would start dealing.
i think Trump is timing the blows to maximize chinese pain and uncertainty. keep them frozen in place. last thing Trump wants (now) is a deal.
Hopefully you’re right. The point is to do maximum crippling damage not to kiss and make up.
You can’t win a trade war. The crippling damage is already well known to America’s farmers. China’s not simply going to cease to be.
gee unDork, yer crayons are gonna melt. Trump know what he doing, and I doubt you can wipe your own a$$ with out instructions written of the buttwipe.
There will be more hurt than just the farmers, but it is the price that needs to be paid now, before the chicoms regroup. It’s like preventive maintenance.
“Trump know what he doing”
Assumes facts not in evidence.
“it is the price that needs to be paid now, before the chicoms regroup. It’s like preventive maintenance.”
No it’s not. They’re not ‘regrouping’ because they don’t need to. American consumers pay the tariffs not Chinese. Further, even someone as daft as you should know there are markets beyond America. The US is a smaller and smaller slice of the world. There’s no endgame here and that’s what scares me. Well that and the massive pop in gold prices and plunge in treasury yields. The Trump Recession will probably terminate its namesake but I fear the lefty-populist it could put in power.
Please do not trade your own money, or anyone else’s money in the markets. You are way too dumb.
By the way, I assume you realise that companies like Apple can and WILL pull out of China when the position becomes untenable. And Trump could give the world an ultimatum: trade with China, or trade with us. Some will choose China, and write off Chinese”A”BCP as debt and ifnore it. But most won’t. Buh bye Chicoms.
“China’s not simply going to cease to be.”
Heh, it wouldn’t take much to push China back into the feudal age.
You China apologists give it way to much credit.
“Trump could give the world an ultimatum: trade with China, or trade with us. ”
That will create an even more crippling recession. Further, a lot of manufacturers are staying in China because it can’t be beat pricewise. The economy of scale is just too good. Even if they moved it’s to a more expense jurisdiction, which means you the consumer pay more.
“Heh, it wouldn’t take much to push China back into the feudal age.”
Assumes more facts not in evidence.
“Further, a lot of manufacturers are staying in China because it can’t be beat pricewise. The economy of scale is just too good.”
Heh I’ll pay more for good Canadian/ US labor and goods over Chinese junk made by slave labor.
A few billions more in China’s GDP decline and we should see a good ol fashioned peasants revolt reduce the country to pull carts and ghost cities. Oh yea, more than it already is but including the Communist super centers.
1. Given the right conditions you can win the trade war. You just have to go beyond the theory taught to you in the International Trade chapter of your Econ 105 textbook (Econ 105 not Econ 100, Econ 105 aka basic economics for dummies who need a social science credit, it is the one taught by a an emeritus or a grad student in the summer).
2. It is not about winning the trade war it is about bankrupting the chicoms, triggering social unrest and hopefully a nice civil war after which hardcore commies take over and China collapses.
The Chicoms are sitting on 3/4 Trillion US $ worth of real money (Gold) compared to Canada’s zero. They should be able to backstop their fiats for a while longer.
The ChiComs only have around $90 billion in gold reserves, not $750 billion.
I used Bass’s estimate of tonnage which is about 10 times what I now find from other sources.
Lesson relearned!
When the Chinese roll the troops into Hong Kong, will a new round of duties be added?
The democracy duty. Or, the duty to democracy…
i think at that point the US bans all chinese goods.
They will also place sanctions on China. That’ll be the death blow. Deutsche Bank is already just about in receivership … And that is just from Italian debt!!!
At what point in todays universe does anyone think that 200 billion means squat? America’s unfunded liabilities now exceed 200 trillion. Now just try and get that number in your tiny brains. America has more debt than the economies of the entire planet produce, yet the dollar is still the international basis for currency exchange. Yes, I know I have said this thousands of times before, but, everybody is really stupid. Those who think they are manipulating the system will lose just as the rest of us will.
$200 trillion if old age security, government pensions and Medicare are factored. If you do not provide these services, everything is good!!! Same goes for every developed country
“Unfunded liabilities” are promises made to the, that are expected in the future.
$200 billion in IOUs are for cash that’s expected right now, in debts owed by companies that can not get any actual financing?
Yeah, that’s a serious problem
The fed can print a thousand times that in any given day.
Recent Chinese history suggests these financial dealings could end badly. Two decades ago, when the Chinese economy was growing too fast for regulators to handle, so many i.o.u.s were passed around by state-owned enterprises — an estimated $86 billion in today’s money, then totaling nearly one-fifth of China’s economic output — that the Chinese business world seized up. The government had to intervene, restructuring the debt and writing much of it off.
hmm, let’s see: so the equivalent of $86 billion in IOUs toasted the Chinese economy 20 years ago, but $200 billion today is no problem?
Did you even read the article?
OWG….2 things you appear not to understand, the value of a dollar, and cash flow.
I understand both, you seem not to.
Don’t worry, Trudeau will cover their debts with Alberta’s money.
Can’t you hear the caterwauling of current and ex Liberal politicians realizing that math actually does matter, as they try to figure out the current value of their renminbi retirement nest eggs?
And just after another bunch of Liberal-sinecured types lost their reefer madness bets.
Just doesn’t pay to be a Librano like it used to.
Oh, who am I kidding.
Entitled Liberals never go away.
Like cockroaches.
Only slimier.
Like Coyne’s only true statement in 20 years, even when you elect someone else, you still get a Liberal Government.
Okay, so this puts China’s economy into turmoil. What does a Chinese dictatorship do in that situation? Let me guess, it won’t be pretty.
Not a problem, their dictatorship will just turn their economy on a dime, according to Shiny Potato.
“There is a level of admiration I actually have for China, Ahh, because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually turn their economy around on a dime.” – Justin Trudeau
The budget will balanch itself.. Unnn..unnn..I’m sure China is working on Mumbles theory!
And that, my friends, is why interest rates must never go above the rate of inflation. If China, Inc. goes broke, there goes the business model of half of corporate America.
If you proudly make things, grow things, mine things or build things in America, or are willing to work for someone who does, the tide is finally turning.
If you mark up garbage made in China (either by slave labour or by chumps whose bosses flee to Vancouver when the chumps demand their back wages), you need to find a way to pay Americans an honest day’s wages for an honest day’s work on the factory floor and still keep the firm solvent.
You can start by only accepting a salary in proportion to the value you actually add to the firm.
On that amount, rest assured you will not be able to afford a luxury apartment in every financial capital, or a summer home in a North American or European beauty spot. Neither will you be able to pay cash to put all your heirs and successors (much less your sugar babies) through an Ivy League school.
You’ll get over it. It’s said that money only buys happiness up to an annual salary of much less than six figures in US dollars. After that you’re just showing off. (And your sugar babies didn’t actually love you.)
Meanwhile, your American employees, once they finally see real pay rises for the first time in a generation, will be much less inclined to consider what you truly deserve. Be grateful for that.
Gosh, perhaps you should open a business and run it instead of your mouth.
“But Chinese banks are reluctant to lend to private businesses because they consider big, state-owned enterprises more reliable in paying off their debts.”
But Chinese banks are reluctant to lend to private businesses because they are forced by the CCP to loan all their capital to big, state-owned enterprises that can’t pay it back, until they get their new loans further down the line.
#FIFY NYT
The theory espoused by PM Dumbie as told to him by his handlers says that if you grow the population you grow the economy and then the debt is reduced as a percentage of GDP. In other words a Ponzi scheme that is leading to pollution, disease, crime, environmental degradation and loss of farm land but hey my share is only $25,000.00 because we increased the population by 2,000,000 over the last two years.
And this theory that a population must always grow in order to grow the economy is pure bovine excrement sprinkled with nuts.
spot on.
aka ’tis the simplistic myopic narrow view that is the only one the swirling masses can keep track of in their busy ‘reality tv’
heads. and LIEberals know this, having fostered that culture since 1932. (just kidding with the date).
let me suggest this: it’s a ponzi scheme within a ponzi scheme. the whole friggin WORLD economy is a ponzi scheme and the ‘product’ being sold, fobbed, whatever, is . . . . is . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . an incomprehensible unimaginable unrecoverable level of DEBT.
Whose nuts are sprinkled on that hot steaming pile, Buddy?
Lol. The small nuts of every teabagging economist who espouses the madness.
“In other words a Ponzi scheme that is leading to pollution, disease, crime, environmental degradation”
1) You don’ know what a Ponzi scheme is 2) there is no evidence of any increase in any of those bad things whatsoever. You’re literally just pasting things from the El Paso shooter’s manifesto.
“this theory that a population must always grow in order to grow the economy is pure bovine excrement sprinkled with nuts.”
I don’t think anyone believes this. What I know is that nations without immigration do very, very badly. Japan is in a multidecade miasma and lack of immigration is a big part of that.
No it is not. Britain ruled half the world from 1760 to 1922. No immigration of any magnitude. You talk rubbish. Japan is suffering from collapsed birthrates and mass sexual and relationship deviancy. It is the sharp edge of the wedge in marrying sex robots.
Reliance on immigration of masses of unskilled unassimalable illiterates from third world war zones to try to prop up a collapsing welfare state is NOT a recipe for economic growth, innovation or environmental sustainability, much less a peacable and tranquil state.
Where do you get this crap? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_immigration_to_Great_Britain#Early_modern
“Japan is suffering from collapsed birthrates and mass sexual and relationship deviancy.”
Oh no not “deviancy”. Yeah, collapsed birth rates are probably somewhat related to their weird political stasis, which is a direct consequence of too little immigration. Thankfully that looks to change soon.
“Reliance on immigration of masses of unskilled unassimalable illiterates from third world war zones to try to prop up a collapsing welfare state is NOT a recipe for economic growth, innovation or environmental sustainability, much less a peacable and tranquil state.”
And yet here we are, with just that. And we’re assimilating them just fine.
Bdsm
Bang on…ask ANY German, Belge or Lowlander if they believe their social security net has improved with the addition of millions of undocumented middle Eastern/African lowlife into their societies..??
Said Lowlife doing nothing but increasing the murder/rape stats while steadfastly refuse to work….
Empires have grown in Europe and elsewhere for 7000 years without immigration.
Immigration destroyed them all.
“Immigration destroyed them all.”
That’s a complete lie. It didn’t destroy a single one.
You lie every day here. Your lying now. Unchecked Immigration of opposing values will always destroy it’s host, and Balkanize. History has proven it endlessly.
this is what happens when you put a successful businessman in charge, INCLUDING dear leftoid, one who dealt with insolvency SUCCESSFULLY. you get an individual who knows lots and lots of tricks to get things done, or stopped up, whatever is called for.
the chirese have given new meaning to the phrase ‘chinese junk’. it aint the boat theyre talking about, its the crapola
they send over *on* the boat. aka *their* business model is to download quality control onto the consumer.
What happens is that the USD plummets through $1500/ounce of gold.
at that point unmebot, the misery will all be relative.
the crashola is coming, some will fare better than others.
applicable to nations and individuals.
your infantile view will be your demise.
China: Four times the population, 2/3 of the GDP, of the USA, less than 1/6 of her GDP/capita.
Russia: Roughly the same GDP as Canada with our population 1/4, of theirs so their GDP/capita 1/4 our ours.
IOW, Russia 43% of the population of the USA with one-tenth the her GDP.
Tell me again nobody wins trade wars. Losing isn’t winning btw.
I’ll tell it to you again and again: no one wins a trade war, period. Except for entrenched parasites like big labour.
“No one wins a trade war”
Depends on your definition of win and lose.
If you are advocating free trade, I understand your argument (doesn’t mean your statement is true).
China was engaged in a trade war long before Trump came along. China did not practice free trade. In practice it raised many barriers to free trade.
“China was engaged in a trade war long before Trump came along. China did not practice free trade. In practice it raised many barriers to free trade.”
And China suffered for it. They were also gradually lowering those barriers. Then Orange Retard came along…
Further Orange Retard has erected plenty of barriers that have nothing to do with China. He’s just a protectionist.
Can you please hold all your comments for the time being? I still haven’t received the talking points memo from my masters in Beijing.
Don’t do this. UnMe is unhinged enough without you pretending to be him/her/it. Identity theft is wearing a false hood, and is wrong.
実際の支払いが枯渇するにつれて、少なくとも2,000億ドルのIOUを流通する中国企業。中国の不動産開発業者は爆発するでしょう。 13兆ドルの経済では、200億ドルが大量の「支払えない」金額です。米国の銀行は、金融危機でおよそ800億ドルを失いました
Can you say it in English !!?? Say it in English!!??
https://youtu.be/aD4zB4jqyiU
Check out Chris Baldings blog and twitter, Prof at Fullbright U, Saigon. Essentially saying key vulnerability right now is the FX reserves.
Definite risk of cash and credit crunch
Good blog to follow right now. Here is an article from May, but gives you a good taste.
https://www.baldingsworld.com/2019/05/13/some-bigger-picture-trade-war-stuff-part-i/
I love reading Chris Baldings, but I don’t believe his info stream is as good as it was when he was in country, especially he would have no clue about forwards sales. Those come straight from the traders’ mouths.
I think in the short-term the advantage is with the US. Longer-term China might be more resilient but due to the opaqueness of their economy no one can say for sure.
My guess is that Trump’s pain tolerance revolves around re-election so he will cut a deal before xmas – and provide the Chicoms a way to save face.
The Chicoms are facing a ton of headwinds politically, economically and demographically in the next decade. Out of pure self-preservation they might do rash things. I think the worst lies ahead for their political elites. Hopefully the country doesn’t collapse into chaos but rather navigates its way to freedom
I think China is trying to wait out Trump, hoping someone will defeat him next election. Who will blink first? I don’t know.
And if anyone thought Russian interference was excessive last election, wait for what comes out of China in 2020.
It probably comes down to who has the most resources,or ready access to same. The America’s lead in that department I think!.. Brush Prancing Princess aside if push comes to shove, I think Canada would side with the US.
What the Chinese are doing in the world and in trade is deeply loathesome to the every day American.
You should not count on Trump folding his hand at Christmas, Americans dislike bullies and cheats. The Chicoms are both. As Walter Russell Mead has said a Jacksonian response to threats to the US always lies not far below the surface in American politics. The Chinese should know, that when they toy with Americans, they are toying with a volcano.
Maybe the Chinese should just shoot down a 180 million dollar drone to get off scot fre.
“Maybe the Chinese should just shoot down a 180 million dollar drone to get off scot fre.”
The Chinese have been getting off “scott free” for years with currency manipulation, slave labor, detentions, torture, and murders of the Falun Gong & Ugers not to mention the general peasantry.
https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/china-and-tibet
BTW UnMe, serious SDA commentators should actually thank you more for the platforms you witlessly provide to getting their messages out. Every day your apologist stances for the worlds tyrants, dictators and western self-loathers, provides excellent information cannon fodder. Cheers little one.
ah, grand prize winner for best unmebot put down !!!
one studies chirer for a span of 2 years, 20 years, 200 years, 2000 years the conclusion is the same:
they will sacrifice anything, anyone to get what they want. proof is events in chirer *right now* as you indicate.
aka like all good communists, first target is their *own* (easily accessible) people. dat right mao???
A collapse in Chinese debt will not be a win/win for America or anyone else. The fallout will reverberate around the world. There are also plenty of other debt implosions just waiting for a trigger. The proliferation of IOUs is not unique to China; every fiat currency in the world, including the U.S. dollar, is simply an IOU created by entities that have neither the means nor the intent to repay. This has been the case since the last tenuous link to gold was severed in 1971. With fiat currencies, debt can only be rolled, not extinguished, so debt must grow exponentially.
I’m so old that I can remember the Asian currency crisis of the late 1990s.
Guess what? America survived. The US dollar survived.
Tucker Carlson: Left is doing all it can to divide Americans – video
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2019/08/tucker-carlson-left-is-doing-all-it-can.html
KB’s record of predictions is not very good. If he says it’s so you can do worse than bet the opposite.
give it up unDork, you are way out of your depth on this
read Dennis’ post, and try understanding it. About 30-40 years ago the Bronfmans had a financial hiccup, and that shook the whole financial world. That was only 25 million as I recall. You do not know.
HEADLINE CBC – Justin Trudeau will be standing in line for one of those Chinese IOU’s, wearing traditional farmers garb of Xining province, according to PM’s Foreign Relations Office.
China:
So ChiComm run/owned enterprises are favoured by the banks..? Ya think..???
LMAO, of course they are, it could be no other way. I’m no economist, but seems to me that Capitalist Enterprises simply cannot survive in a Socialist/Communist run Country….it’s either full on Capitalism or …..Not.
China’s your classic house of cards…pull in one IOU…??
& BAMN..!!