18 Replies to “The Sound Of Settled Science”

  1. Take-Home Points from Pielke Jr’s (author of the graph) congressional testimony:

    It is misleading, and just plain incorrect, to claim that disasters associated with hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or droughts have increased on climate timescales either in the United States or globally.1 It is further incorrect to associate the increasing costs of disasters with the emission of greenhouse gases.

    Globally, weather-related losses ($) have not increased since 1990 as a proportion of GDP (they have actually decreased by about 25%) and insured catastrophe losses have not increased as a proportion of GDP since 1960.

    Hurricanes have not increased in the US in frequency, intensity or normalized damage since at least 1900. The same holds for tropical cyclones globally since at least 1970 (when data allows for a global perspective).

    Floods have not increased in the US in frequency or intensity since at least 1950. Flood losses as a percentage of US GDP have dropped by about 75% since 1940. 

    Tornadoes have not increased in frequency, intensity or normalized damage since 1950, and there is some evidence to suggest that they have actually declined.

    Drought has “for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the U. S. over the last century.”2 Globally, “there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.”3 

    The absolute costs of disasters will increase significantly in coming years due to greater wealth and populations in locations exposed to extremes. Consequent, disasters will continue to be an important focus of policy, irrespective of the exact future course of climate change.

    http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2013.20.pdf

    Here’s an intriguing and entertaining story about how Clinton supporters drummed Pielke Jr out of the climate science field for telling the truth about what the IPCC reported on extreme weather events – involves Wikileaks!

    https://rogerpielkejr.com/2016/11/14/wikileaks-and-me/

  2. Meanwhile this is the bunk being peddled by some rent seekers.

    Forest fires will become more widespread and destructive, expert warns

    “As hundreds of wildfires rage in Ontario and B.C., one expert is warning that the increased forest fire activity being experienced this year is about to become a regular feature of Canadian summers.

    Turetsky said conditions existed for severe, devastating fires in many areas around the world due to prolonged dry spells and heat waves. She described the increase in wildfire activity as a “direct outcome of climate change” and said the world’s governments need to take firm action to bring down emission levels.”

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/forest-fires-will-become-more-widespread-and-destructive-expert-warns-1.4034546

    1. Turetsky is a moron. And “funny” that CTV didn’t mention this little fact……

      “U.S. officials monitoring terrorist web sites have discovered a call for using forest fires as weapons against “crusader” nations, in what may explain some recent wildfires in places like southern California and Greece.

      A terrorist website was discovered recently that carried a posting that called for “Forest Jihad.” The posting was listed on the Internet on Nov. 26 and reported in U.S. intelligence channels last week.

      The statement, in Arabic, said that “summer has begun so do not forget the Forest Jihad.”
      The writer called on all Muslims in the United States, Europe, Russia and Australia to “start forest fires.”

  3. The news media uses almost everyone of those points, all he missed was fire. They are almost throwaway lines. “Everybody knows” we have more hurricanes. “Everybody knows” the sea levels are rising. “Everybody knows” we have catastrophic droughts everywhere. “Everybody knows” that today is the hottest day ever. “Everybody knows” its all caused by Climate Change. It’s all reported on an almost daily basis by breathless news readers across the country. Actually checking the facts is not in their job description.

  4. BDFT,
    The other things that ‘everyone knows’ are worse than ever are hot spells and other extreme weather events. In fact, there were significantly more extremely hot days in the early part of the last century. All time records are from the 1930’s.

    This is all readily available information from Environment Canada. It takes some combination of willful ignorance, fanatical activism, extreme dishonesty, total innumeracy and colossal laziness for the media to ignore simple undisputed facts!

    https://ottawa.weatherstats.ca/charts/temperature-yearly.html

  5. … despite massive increases in population and building over the same time period. A point of logic lost on the “true believer” AGW’s.

  6. You can only use “The End is Nigh” card so many times before people stop listening, except true believers of course. That particular doomsday approach reached its saturation point sometime ago, imo, and now it just looks like a sad act of desperation.

    If governments were serious about reducing climate damage, wether it’s CAGW or not, then they’d stop re-issuing building permits in places that are *repeatedly* hit by fires, floods and hurricanes where it is imposible to mitigate the risk (firebreaks, flood control, etc,) Alternatively, allow building but stop subsidizing homeowner’s insurance and taxpayer bailouts. If you build, the financial risk is yours and yours alone.

    1. They’d also slow immigration and try to hinder human population growth but that would be racist.

      1. Immigration is net positive if it is a selection system based on skills and ability to immigrate, imo. Extreme weather is completely independent of immigration, or is there a connection I’m missing? Same for family size choice. I fail to see how population control could decrease the number of floods and hurricanes.

        Not building in zones that are prone to uncontrollable flooding, fires and hurricanes works regardless of the population.

    2. In CA … EVERY … new Home MUST be fire sprinklered. What that does for a house in a wildfire escapes me. As the exterior of the house is consumed by fire … the interior fire sprinklers will sit, idle, until the heads are sufficiently heated to trigger water flow … which won’t be there because the CPVC water pipes in the attic will have melted from the exterior fire.

      However, for new homes located in remote, wilderness areas … the interior fire sprinklers will prevent an interior house fire from becoming an exterior wildfire. However (again) … how many wildfires were ignited by an interior house fire? Very very few I would suspect. But … the State has just made homes MORE expensive again, and the fire sprinkler installers UNION is donating more $$ to CA’s supermajority leftist members of the State Legislature. So the wildfires will STILL rage, and burn homes to the ground … but someone “did” something … right?

      Oh, and by the way … if your remodel adds more than 50% of the existing floor area … your home is considered “new” … and needs to be retrofit with fire sprinklers. Thanks California! For an essentially USELESS mandatory requirement which has made housing even more unaffordable. Enjoy the increase of homeless people living under the freeways.

  8. Somewhat related – here’s a letter to the editor that the Toronto Star won’t print:

    “Letter Writer Doug Aikins from Oakville deplores the lack of information on whether cap-and-trade programs have actually reduced greenhouse gas emissions. That’s a very good question but it still misses the mark. He should be asking what impact Ontario’s emissions reductions have had on global temperatures.

    Ontario’s emissions have been reduced by roughly 19 million tonnes below 1990 levels at the cost of billions, a severe drop in manufacturing activity and significantly higher hydro rates – cap-and-trade was not a key factor. What happened to temperature as a result?

    According to peer reviewed science one tonne of emitted CO₂ increases global temperature by 0.0000000000017⁰C per annum. Simple arithmetic shows that Ontario’s emissions reductions to date defer global warming at a rate of 0.00003⁰C per year, or one Celsius degree per 31,000 years.

    That’s the key information being withheld from the taxpaying public.”

    The numerical relationship between CO2 and lobal temperature that your governments and the media won’t talk about is here:

    https://phys.org/news/2016-01-temperature-co2-emissions.html

    “Globally, the researchers saw an average temperature increase of 1.7 ±0.4°C per trillion tonnes of carbon in CO2 emissions (TtC), which is consistent with reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”

  10. In a perverted way, it gives evidence to their beliefs. Warmer weather is calmer weather. One of the many problems with CAGW.

  11. It would be even better if the USG didn’t subsidize building in flood-prone areas with national flood insurance.

    That being said, the globe is warming and it is due to mankind’s CO2 and it is probably having effects we are seeing. That is reality.

    1. UnMe,
      “it is probably having effects we are seeing. That is reality.”

      No, “it is probably having effects we are seeing today” is not reality. It is speculation.

      That’s what ‘probably’ means.

    2. In looking at the aerial flyovers after the MASSIVE Houston flood, I saw NEW subdivisions, and apartment projects (the design style and materials of new homes were quite obvious). And ALL of the new homes were high and dry … sitting right next to older homes across the street that were engulfed in floodwaters. So, we KNOW how and where to build (at what elevations) to prevent flood damage. It’s the older homes built too low for the (new) 100 year FEMA flood maps that are flooding. What to do? Bulldoze low-lying Houses? And if your home is built below the flood plain … then flood insurance should be MANDATORY … so the taxpayers aren’t made to bail you out (pun intended).

      And the amount of hurricane resistant building materials are legion. From the Simpson catalog of miscellaneous metal straps to anchor roof and walls, to “Coastal” windows reinforced against wind loads. In CA, smart homeowners have retrofit their older homes with seismic anchors and plywood shearwalls. Similarly, in hurricane (and tornado) prone areas … homeowners should be retrofitting their homes with anchors and materials resistant to hurricane damage.

      We have the technology and knowhow to prevent the VAST majority of environmental damage to structures. Our homes are already better-built to resist destructive forces than any other country on the planet … but we need to utilize that technology … fully. Our building codes are updated and changed every 3 years … making our buildings safer and safer.

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