Paul A. Rahe – Chinese Aggressiveness in Asia
In and for a long time after the time of Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese talked softly while carrying a big stick. Deng and his immediate successors understood that the rise of China would elicit anxiety on the part of the Japanese, the Koreans, the Vietnamese, the Taiwanese, and the Filipinos, and they did what they could to allay that anxiety by refraining from doing anything that would suggest on their part aggressive intent.
In the last couple of years, however, all of that has changed; and everywhere where one goes in Asia, an old friend who travels in high circles told me earlier this week, one senses hostility — not towards the United States but towards one’s neighbors. The anger underlying all of this has been stirred by the Chinese, who have been throwing their weight around with ever greater force.
This weekend the Chinese upped the ante. In the South China Sea, between Korea and Taiwan, there are some uninhabited islands, which are called the Senkaku isles by the Japanese and the Diayu isles by the Chinese. Although there are other claimants, these have been controlled for many decades by the Japanese. This weekend, however, China extended its air-defence zone to include the islands…
More: China’s new air defense zone above Senkakus ‘very dangerous’ escalation
Via
Its what you get with a one-child family policy where selection is for male children. What is it – about 20 million Chinese men hitting the age of 20 in about 2020? With no prospect of female company, married or otherwise.
So the Japs have got about another 5 years before things get really heated. Either that or China could just implode.
Demographics – too many young men with no chance of getting laid and not enough older males to maintain a steady hand – it always brings this on. Like Germany before the second world war.
Look out gaysian invasion!
Their economy is also on the verge of collapsing and there is plenty of social unrest as a result. A simple little foreign war is the usual prescription for that.
The 60 some years of Pax Americana that followed World War 2, may be about to come to an end.
The Obama legacy, of nuclear war in the Middle-East Shia-Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia and a far eastern one between China and Japan, will be one, history will long remember.
So Barry, hows the shine on that Nobel Peace Prize awarded on your first two weeks in office holding up?
Not to worry. Obama will look after this.
China is also pushing on India in the Himalayas http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/06/us-india-china-idUSBRE9440B220130506 Not something 2 nations as armed as India and China would want to go to war over, but definitely a ‘probing’ action nonetheless. Only China’s most senior politicians could give approval to such excursions.
Be it resolved, the 21st century will belong to China.
http://www.munkdebates.com/debates/china
Chicom aggressiveness will last just long enough to kill off the excess of males produced by the one child policy in that country. However, during that time the Chicoms can do lots of mischief. In the past, the US served as a brake on Chicom ambitions, but now that the TOTUS is a “monkey with a hand grenade”, Chicoms with IQ’s that are orders of magnitude higher than the dimwitted narcissistic TOTUS are likely to take full advantage of the election of an affirmative action president.
The Chicoms have their own problems such as a country with a population so large that it’s largely ungovernable. The level of corruption in China makes Chicago look squeaky clean. The only way that the Chicoms have been able to been able to prevent rebellion among their citizens is by economic growth. A worldwide depression would hit China the hardest as it has the largest population of any country who are likely to be thrust into a position of extreme desperation. The problem with communism is that one has everyone (except for the politburo and its hangers on) experiencing a state of poverty whereas once one goes to a capitalist system, suddenly inequalities appear. While the economy is growing, those at the bottom figure that they might get their turn to have a large house and a couple of young mistresses whereas if a capitalist economy in a previously communist country has a reverse, the population will be far less likely to accept the result.
War against external “threats” is a tried and true means of getting a population to forget about their own problems and project their anger on am external threat but given that the Chicoms can barely keep their own population in line, they would fail miserably if they attempted to expand their empire. Maybe the whole point of this exercise is to find a way of eliminating 20+ million horny males who have no interest in turning queer.
If things go sideways in Commie China where will poor old Maurice Strong live?
The Chinese, of course, have absolutely no reason to love the Japanese.
Pax Americana died with the murder of Moammar Ghaddafi. The sequel will be
Hell on earth.
No, Pax Americana died with the election of Bill Clinton and the peace dividend. The US has been in decline ever since. Obama’s election has simply been the most obvious manifestation of that decline.
The American people have been thrown under the bus with respect to illegal immigration, and health care; some eastern European countries have been thrown under the bus with respect to dealings with Russia; Israel has been thrown under the bus with the deal with Iran, so there is no reason to expect that Korea and Japan will also not be thrown under the bus just to further the Alinsky agenda.
I agree, and the decline is becoming more obvious with every hysterical domestic and foreign policy initiative.
Loki;
The vast majority of Chinese have never experienced any form of government other than communism. Ignoring human rights concerns what China has achieved in the past 30 years is almost unbelievable. Using a North American human rights yardstick is probably to narrow. I had better watch myself I am sounding like young Turdeau. I travelled China a little bit back in the ’80’s and am sure that I would not recognize it today by all reports. Two memories that stick with me are; 1) Watching a canal being constructed outside Shanghai by workers using baskets, and 2) waiting at a railroad crossing while a coal fired train passed by and showered my car with cinders.
One has to ask themselves how much individual freedom would you sacrifice in return for feeding your family? IMO that is the bottom line in China. War and starvation are not ancient history there. The Chinese people do have a nationalistic pride in their accomplishments. Both Korea and Japan have had their day taking bites out of the Chinese goose. China reasserting claims to areas in the South China Sea are inevitable. I would not want to sit on a tribunal trying to adjudicate those disputes.
No way the Chinese would do this!
Obamba bowed and kissed the emperors feet, what else could they have wanted?
Israel violates Syrian, Lebanese and Jordanian airspace with military overflights on a regular basis.
But when China overflies some uninhabited islands, it’s a ‘very dangerous escalation’.
@Dystopian Optimist – You don’t know the difference between over flights and air defence zones, do you? Putting an ADZ over the islands is the same as declaring it part of your own territory. And yes, that is a “very dangerous escalation”.
And why bring Israel into this at all? Russian has done over flights of Japan too. USA has done over flights, etc. When you extend your defence to cover an area you are making a statement.
@Dwayne
You don’t know what hypocrisy is, do you?
And as a result, a new balance of power is being struck. As I’ve said many times before, too much focus is placed on China as a supposed communism. It’s not. China would be asserting itself in the South Chna Sea regardless of what form of government ruled in Beijing. CT is largely right in his post above, save only that great powers do not submit their claims to some international arbitration tribunal. They establish them through strength.
Israel is under virtual siege from every other state in the mid-east region.
China is under NO threat from anyone in the Asian region.
So what equivalence exists in your mind?
OMMAG asked: “So what equivalence exists in your mind?”
I was amusingly noting the bias/hypocrisy/insanity of our foreign policy.
Sometimes unlawful aggression and war crimes are condoned. Other times, they’re condemned.
The amusing part is when we flip-flop within days.
Governments and foreign ministers around the world have also noted the bias/hypocrisy.
If you like your islands then you can keep your islands.
“In recent years, since the economic downturn that began in 2007, prominent Chinese have repeatedly expressed contempt for the United States. We are on the decline, they say. Decadence has set in, and China’s time has come.”
Of course,I wonder what took them so long. China is led by by well experienced “chess grandmasters” of politics,the USA by the most unbelievable amateurs the world has ever seen,and China is very aware of that fact. How could China be anything BUT contemptuous of America today?
America signals it’s weakness and decline every day, while China quietly builds it’s economic power and influence all over the Pacific. Not to even mention acting as Banker to the USA.
Japan would be well advised to start face-saving motions concerning the Senkakus,or they’re going to lose them in a short and decisive war.
This century will belong to China, just as their Leader said,and no one in politics is delusional enough to imagine “democracy” will break out in China as it has in the Middle East.(Voice of Foghorn Leghorn:”that’s a joke,son.I keep throwin’ ’em and you keep missin’ ’em”).
Ken;
I totally agree. I was not suggesting a tribunal but simply putting myself in the role of adjudicating that dispute.
As an advocate of geo-political determinism I agree with you that Chinese internal politics means little as far as exerting their control over the South China Sea. It has the same national security relativism as the American embargo of Cuba in 1962.
Boy. I can sense another ‘bama-brokered peace treaty coming. Bad news for Czechos…whoops….I mean Israe… sorry, I mean Japan.
@Dystopian Optimist – What hypocrisy? The Chinese government is trying to assert control over an area. That is a far cry from an over flight where national response is tested, and not trying to take control over a piece of land. I guess you could say that an over flight is a provocation, but the degree is significantly less than the attempted physical control over a territory. That type of provocation is almost begging for a response.
The next step will be the establishment of an outpost under the air defence umbrella. Once that occurs then the off shore exclusion zone would be declared. But hey I imagine it is all good with you, right?
I think there are better ways to deal with the situation.
How old are you, Dys? About 16? The Chinese action says, in diplomatic-speak,
“this area is ours. OURS. Overfly it without permission and we are be free to
shoot you down.”
As for being a “dangerous” action, it isn’t particularly, because as cgh and I agree,
Pax Americana is dead. the Japanese rashly trusted in it. Well, so much for them!
The Nipponese will be getting nuclear weapons as fast as they can
if they have any sense.
Canada needs its own nuclear weapons and delivery system and we need them NOW.
I have just returned from China and spent 23 days travelling from Beijing to Hong Kong, 5 internal flights, 1 high speed rail and lots of travel by bus with our tour group, some of 5 hours in length and 4 days on a river boat up the Yangtse through the 3 Gorges Dam. The infrastructure of China is just incredible, every airport was new, the roads and highways were fabulous with gardens, parks and buildings on the rise everywhere. The designs of the new towers in cities like Shanghai and Beijing put ours to shame. The people were well dressed, lots of shoppers in the markets and our guide told us people see a good future with a growing middle class.
Of course I am seeing this with a quick tour but my son had travelled through China 3 years and his friend spent 3 years working in management at Shangri-La Hotels and spoke highly of the Chinese work ethic. She speaks Mandarin so was able to discuss things with her co-workers and people she had met. I can’t believe the Chinese, who are long thinkers, would throw away the tremendous expensive growth they have achieved.
John Lewis wrote:
‘How old are you, Dys? About 16? The Chinese action says, in diplomatic-speak, “this area is ours. OURS. Overfly it without permission and we are be free to shoot you down.”‘
I am 66. Old enough to debate an issue without resorting to snide personal comments.
When Russia planted its flag at the North Pole, and Canada stamped its feet, would you agree that was diplomatic-speak for “this area is ours. OURS. Overfly it without permission and we are be free to shoot you down.”?
True enough, CT. The traditional form of arbitration is that of the sword, but none of China’s neighbours is willing to push this for a bunch of very small islands, so they will squawk and concede. And your parallel with Cuba is entirely reasonable. China really doesn’t want someone “parking nuclear missiles 90 miles off their coast” so to speak, even though SSBMs long ago made the notion of land based missiles obsolete.
John Lewis, the subject of strategic weapons was a large topic internal to Foreign Affairs about 50 years ago. Some of the generation of senior public servants who retired starting in the early ’90s felt that unilateral non-possession made in 1948 was one of Canada’s worst policy blunders. It gave away what was a sovereign right post-war, and gave it away for nothing. The sheepish, defencelessness of the “Third Way” came much later in the mid to late 1970s under Trudeau and has been endeminc in Foreign Affairs ever since. Its worst and most pathetic exponent was Lloyd Axworthy.
Now as for your dispute with DO, we can stick all the flags we want on Hans Island, but shoot anything down with WHAT? If we do not have the capability, we do not have the power of enforcement. It’s astonishing sometimes how frequently liberals misunderstand this very simple principle.
In the end, you and I and CT all agree that virtue and being right are all fine and dandy, but they mean nothing without the power AND the will to back it up. It is particularly the latter that the US has lost, hence “Sic transit gloria mundi” (Thus passes the wonder of the world). Long gone are the days when the US would say as Julius Caesar: “Fiat justitia ruat caelam” (Let justice be done though the heavens fall)
When confronted with your own stupidity resort to name calling. You’re tiresome.
It won’t be long now before China takes over Taiwan. America under Obama or his successors will do nothing.
The USA is far to down the road embracing Isolationism. As its economy is purposely collapsed.To make way for one that is contained by benefits from an all encompassing political system. Not acquirement through meritocracy or achievement by production of Individuals. Its military debased. The Political system rendered to a one party system. Neutered . The Education of its people whittled down to plebeian ruthlessness of utter ignorance.
A Land immersed in entertainment,circuses, distraction. Its struggle for attainment strangled in red tape, by a bureaucracy of collectivism driven by statist socialists.
The US Government has long abandoned its allies under Obama for monsters.
Now they are turning the State apparatus (EPA, IRS, TSA, NSA,Military. Health care) on their own populace to have utter compliance for the Political & Academic classes complete control.
Soon even the mirage of International endeavours will cease, as it retreats into a shell. Than the wolves will come out to eat the lambs of the World.
In other words where in for hell, because no one civilized is left in charge any more.
The dream of a century of communists come true. An America out of the picture decomposing from with in.
Exactly, just as Russia, whether under the Tsars, First Secretaries or Presidents, has since the time of Catherine II in the 17th century tried to open up access to the Mediterranean or to the Indian Ocean.
You are right, and we can be assured that Russia, Germany, and India are reassessing their foreign policy options in light of the decline of the US, and the gathering strength of China.
As much as I hate to do it, I have to agree with Revnant Dream. If China wants to take
Taiwan, it will. If it wants to take the Senkakus, it will. If it wants to take the Spratleys,
it will. And the US will posture and send a few ships to show strength, but do nothing. It’ll
be like the time a Chinese sub surfaced in the middle of a US task force and gave us their version
of the bird. “Hey, look at us, we can fight too.” And the US response was…” WTF do we do now?”
China’s history is replete with situations when, just as it attains some form of strength and power,
it implodes. My take is that is our only hope.
Revnant Dream;
China will not have to use force on Taiwan I suspect they will merge voluntarily. It is all about recognition of property rights and to a degree status quo. Taiwan is such a conduit of investment on the mainland that I highly doubt either country would condone violence.
An interesting exercise/necessity is a review of Canadian/Chinese relations. IMHO Canada has to get off the pot and start acting like a grownup. Canada’s national security has been subjugated to USA influence and interests to a far greater degree than is healthy. Canada needs a foil and China fits the bill. Canada can diversify trade by enhancing the Chinese relationship. The key commodity should be crude oil shipped from the West coast. It is anticipated that Canadian production will hit 5.75 million bpd by 2035. In terms of a production target and timeline this number is a joke. Canada should be creating a regulatory environment that boosts that target to 8 million bpd by 2025. Current world consumption is 90 mbpd. If Canada was shipping roughly 10% of world consumption the financial gain and enhanced ability to promote Canadian priorities would be significant. Canada would be better able to defend her interests in the Artic against Russian and USA claims. Canada would be able to chart a more independent trade and foreign policy.
I do think that the Americans will eventually end their foolishness with politicans like Obama and the Clintons. However Canadians do not have a vote in that debate. Sitting on the sidelines waiting for resolution is irresponsible. As above it is time for Canada to grow up. Failing to do so and this country will always run the risk of what the Americans are going thru. Intellectual light weights running the country. Leaders who take their talking points from Oprah and the late night bull shitters.
The 2015 election in Canada will have many international participants. These forces will not be friends of Canada and will do what they can to ensure that Harper is not re-elected. He is becoming the greatest political threat that Canada has produced in + 100 years. The CPC has to refocus the national debate away from young Turdeau’s hair style to a higher plane of where Canada wants to go.