Still, I blame the storm more than I blame the computer models. The models are pretty good. It’s Nature that messed this up.
h/t pkuster
Still, I blame the storm more than I blame the computer models. The models are pretty good. It’s Nature that messed this up.
h/t pkuster
Somehow, when I look at this person I can’t help but envision a brain the size of a golf ball.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8193/8100827569_6b75791e5c.jpg
OOPS, wrong thread. Was meant for the refugee one , next one down.
God must be like ILMAO. The difference between God and Enviros, God never thinks he/she is an environmentalist.
Yeah well, I reside smack in the middle of South-Western Ontario, just about equidistant from Lake Ontario and Lake Huron with Lake Erie a bit closer. The “Land Between the Lakes”…a Maritime environment slap in the middle of a large continent. A Chaotic situation with many many variables…Weather Forecasts seem more entertainment than prediction…..mostly dramatic, frequent changes…..and the odd massive surprise especially in winter………
..massive storms that suddenly appear out of nowhere and farces like “Snow-quester”….one a few years back embarrassed the Greater Toronto mayor who in anticipation called for federal assistance…the army….to help clean up a….flurry….
One of the IPCC climatologists made similar statements a year ago,
“When empirical data, actual measurements contradict the computer modelled projections, the computer is correct and reality is wrong.”
Climatology, where expertise in adjusting the data to match expectations, actually pays.
We should start a Free Bernie Madoff campaign, he only stole billions.
With justice for all, Bernies pathetic little fraud is so puny when compared to this Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Scam.
Madoff only wanted your money and only stole from the rich.
I think it’s time to bring in the genius of Richard Feynman to deal with this (as did one of the commenters on the WUWT thread):
“Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience, compare it directly with observation, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It does not make any difference how beautiful your guess is. It does not make any difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is – if it disagrees with experiment it is wrong. That is all there is to it.”- Richard Feynman
Feynman’s view of the role of reality in science was the norm back in the 1940’s-1970’s. Then we got “post-modernist science” where the notion of an objective reality was rejected and this gave us climate models, the IPCC and scientific whores who produce results pre-ordained for them by their statist sponsors. Also, back in those days where reality trumped models, I don’t recall anyone worrying about large dumps of snow. It was something that happened and one dealt with it creatively rather than spending ones time bemoaning the release of plant food into the atmosphere. For large snowfalls I had a choice of either snowshoes or cross country skis with the snowshoes preferred for deep light fluffy stuff and skis for compacted snow.
This one time, at Band Camp, I was pissing in the wind – and the wind got it all over my shoes!
“I am guessing the regulars on the weather blogs understand, and accept, the inherent uncertainties in weather forecasting. Here’s the key fact: The weather isn’t a machine. The weather isn’t the result of a deterministic process. No refinement of the models is ever going to result in a perfect forecast, because weather is chaotic, particularly stormy weather.” –
Well, he is just spouting. I don’t know whether stormy weather is harder or easier to predict than fair weather, but that it is chaotic has been known since E. N. Lorenz and suspected for much longer. It is easy and correct to say that the data relevant to weather prediction are always incomplete but that actually irrelevant.
Deterministic chaos is, well, deterministic; it can be predicted for short times. It cannot be predicted for long times. “Long” and “short” depend on the system ; for weather, perhaps four days, at best.
The fact that a deterministic system, about which everything is known, can still be chaotic and hence unpredictable is a fundamental limitation on the powers of the human intellect.