Still your best source for developments in Egypt.
More via Robert W. – “here’s a superb podcast by Claire Berlinski and Judith Levy of Ricochet discussing the crisis in Egypt in particular but the larger repercussions as well. An important
footnote is that the two ladies admit when they don’t know something, rather than stating conspiracy theories as fact.”
Personally, I hope Mubarak holds on, almost any alternative will quickly become worse for both the Egyptian people and the region.
I doubt the capacity of any moderate faction to govern for very long before radicals take over, either radical socialists, or Islamists.
Israel must be very nervous watching events in Lebanon and now this.
This will be resolved by the Army….the Army not necesarily the Generals.
The army at any level fortunately does not favour the Muslim Brotherhood……Mubarack and his son are not one of them…the army….it is a de facto tribe.
I understand your concern Peter. However, in the long run, I believe a democratic takeover would be in the best interests of the Egyptian people and the region generally. Even if the radical Islamists gain power their hold on it would likely be more akin to that of the clerical faction in Iran. While that’s certainly discomforting for the time, it’s tended to harden the desire of the average Iranian for a secular, democratic government, in the same way that the first hand experience with Al Queda in Iraq helped initiate the Anbar Awakening. I expect the same sentiments would predominate in Egypt, although I agree that it could be a rough go until those democratic forces actually gain power, hopefully with western support.
BC gets it all in two words:
>>> “Mubarak Obama”.
Leftists are jubilating. The left is allied with AlMoh’s Mohammedanism.
Their aim/goal? The annihilation of western civilization.
Resist Mohammedanism.
Say No! to the leftists.
Resist O’narcissist “Mubarak Obama”.
…-
“Mubarak Obama”
“The WSJ says the White House rejected a suggestion by the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center that President Obama had put himself on the wrong side of events in the region by abandoning Bush’s democracy agenda. The White House said it had been working quietly encouraging NGOs and that the president had been in the forefront of spreading democracy since his speech in Cairo. So the question was, on which side was the president on now?
He stayed in character by taking both sides of the argument. He was for his “partner” and he understood the concerns of those beating on the walls of the Egyptian state:”
http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/01/28/mubarak-obama/#comments
This is definitely not the same Al Jazeera that covered Gaza, Lebanon or the Iraq war. They even have reporters in Washington and there is no blind western hate spewing this time.
Contrast that to the 5 minutes of a CTV interview with the Canadian Foreign Minister. The reporter repeatedly brought up Israel and Palestine and is Canada going to review their foreign policy. It was almost as if they were out to lunch. Those Egyptians are not concerned with Israel but with jobs, food, and a living in a democracy. After 30 years it is time for change in the dictatorial government.
another viewpoint is France 24 English . . . surprisingly offbeat
http://www.zahitv.com/2010/08/watch-france-24-english-live/
i foresee years of blood and terror in Gypoland…THIS is the BIG moment for the MB and the ayatollahs…and i reckon they’ll stop at nothing to capitalize on it…i’m sure it will turn out badly..
btw i read Berlinski’s book on Thatcher a while back…very well done…illuminating…
One dictator means stability and another one means a rise in (further) extremism. There are no winning parties here.
Traffic is unusually chaotic on the Arab street.
@ DrD, the history of revolts like this would suggest that generally they do not result in democracy, but a lengthy period of even worse repression. Considering the litany of groups that would like to take control in Egypt I expect that Peter O’Donnell’s fear will come true.
The wild card so far is the army. Which way will it go?
Texas Canuck at 7:32 PM, I’ve been listening to Al Jazeera pretty much all day, and there has been some America bashing. You can bet on that. But all told, their coverage has been pretty good. I don’t share the fear that Egypt will go the way of the Muslim Brotherhood. The masses of people risking their lives on the street will not stand for that. I think the Egyptian identity is no where near as strongly linked to Islam as some other regions in the Muslim world. They also have great pride in their more ancient heritage, that of the pharaohs and pyramids.
Evil comes noisy on riotous boots.
Good come gently on angels wings.
The evil that is the Mubarak regime has every likelihood of being replaced by an even more evil Islamic tyranny.
Ken (Kulak) at 8:34 PM, I beg to differ. There have been precious few revolts like this. Since the collapse of the European empires, most so called “revolutions” have been army orchestrated affairs designed to install some big general or colonel, or some such thug, inspired and/or supported by one side or the other of the Cold War adversaries. There has been very little in the way of mass public unrest in the streets. This one is different.
@Ken, I agree that there is certainly the short-intermediate term risk that one of the more thuggish/fundamentalist factions could well come out on top. It’s harsh, but may have the effect of dispelling the illusion in the mind of the average individual that any of these fundamentalist factions can offer anything better than the current regime. Likely they’ll be worse. But that in itself may help put to rest any appeal they may have in the mind of the average Egyptian. Then a further transformation to a true democratic, secular state may be possible. Until that genuine desire for democracy from the grass roots is realized, the appeal of the radicals can never be completely dispelled.
However this plays out, there are powerful forces at work. Hopefully a democratic, secular transition can stabilize sooner rather than later.
hoping Hosni holds on is a betrayal of everything a genuine conservative believes in…what a truly craven inferior sentiment to voice..Wilberforce would show you the door!
no matter the consequences we must take it on the chin…it will in all likelihood add to our(principally the Americans) burden but freedom and liberty for these benighted primitive Gypos is their birthright…
another small step toward the promised land notwithstanding the kind of shites that will prolly assume power…
no matter ….we’ll subsume them sooner or later…we always do you know…it’s because we are on the side of virtue and truth…
All indications so far are that the army is on the side of the people. That is the key
john begley at 9:03 PM, hear! hear!
Pete Townsend said it all about 40 years ago:
“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.
Sure – trade the Shah and his repressive band of thugs, for the Ayatollahs and their repressive band of thugs. Same thing in Tunisia, same thing in Egypt. Everyone will be happy and make nice for, I don’t know, 237 hours, and then some people will slowly begin to realize that they’re in the same old boat, but the newly installed regime won’t tolerate dissent any more than the old did, and the firebrands who are not onside with the new bosses will be quickly rounded up. The general public will be so delighted with what they’ve done, they’ll be oblivious to this for years. All that’s happened is we’ve lost one set of thugs who were nominally on our side (so long as the cash kept flowing, of course) for a set of thugs who are decidedly not on our side. When push comes to shove, as it inevitably will, at least we’ll be spared the hypocrisy of fighting people we pretended to friends with.
KevinB, look at the number of democracies in the world when the Shah was deposed and compare that to the situation now. Don’t be such a pessimist.
I had not watched much of al Jazeera before. Their
coverage is very good, and the photographs equal
to those of Paris Match at its best.
“The Muslim Brotherhood Takes Off its Mask”
“Here it is: “The improvement and change that the [Muslim] nation seeks can only be attained through jihad and sacrifice and by raising a jihadi generation that pursues death just as its enemies pursue life.””
“October 18, 2010 – by Michael J. Totten”
“Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood was never a “moderate” organization. I briefly interviewed their spokesman many years ago, and it could not have been more obvious that I was dealing with a dissembler. I know moderate Muslims when I see them, and these guys aren’t even in the same time zone.
Recently, though, for reasons I’m not quite sure about yet, they decided to stop playing the game, and we can thank Barry Rubin for paying particularly close attention to this development.
In calling for jihad against America, the West and Israel in terms virtually identical with Osama bin Laden’s rhetoric, the leader of Egypt’s powerful Muslim Brotherhood uttered one sentence that explains the contemporary Middle East.
Here it is: “The improvement and change that the [Muslim] nation seeks can only be attained through jihad and sacrifice and by raising a jihadi generation that pursues death just as its enemies pursue life.”
The Muslim Brotherhood is not a militia. It can’t seize the capital, and it can’t take on the army. It doesn’t control a state within a state, as Hamas and Hezbollah do. It can’t start a war with another country or draw in foreign powers. It can’t win an election, because Hosni Mubarak’s regime rigs the system. It does, however, have an enormous amount of clout on the streets.
I’ve been to more than a dozen Muslim countries and seen for myself how extraordinarily diverse they are. Some are as secular and irreligious as the nations of Western Europe. Egypt, though, is by far the most politically Islamicized place I’ve ever seen. And by that I don’t mean that Egyptians are more likely to pray and go to the mosque than people in other countries. The Kurds of Iraq are by and large conservative Muslims, but political Islamism barely registers there and is held in contempt by the majority.
In Egypt, it’s different, and you can see it and feel it in Cairo. The liberal and moderate Egyptians I spoke to were keenly aware that they’re part of a small minority that has no political future right now.
Read the rest in Commentary Magazine.”
http://pajamasmedia.com/michaeltotten/2010/10/18/the-muslim-brotherhood-takes-off-its-mask/
H/T:
“113. lc”
http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/01/28/mubarak-obama/#comments
ALL CANADIAN EGYPTIANS:
The oppressive regime of Egypt has fallen – You are free to go home! Goodbye, Masalama, no need to thank us.
Now Egypt can open its border with Palestine and end the ghetto lives of its Islamic brothers. Egypt can now share in its bounties with the Palestinians instead of walling them off into poverty.
Here’s a minute by minute account from the BBC. Not pleasant to read but clearly a wake-up call to all Canadians of how fragile law & order is in some parts of the world.
In case you’re interested, here’s the live feed from BBC London radio. The host is [Big] George Webley, a nice bloke I’ve corresponded a lot with over the years. What you’ll hear though are all sorts of Extreme Far Left nutcases. Their beliefs are so shallow and their intelligence even more so. Delightful to listen to!
Knight99- I’ll even donate my air miles to any Egyptians who’d like to head home.
I have been watching the events on Fox almost continuously and have seen no tangible evidence that the army has chosen between Mubarek or the people. If Mubarek and his top men leave, then we know the army has chosen the side of the people. So far the troops are not moving aggressively, just more or less marking time in various locations throughout the cities and watching in a battened down position.
sasquatch is right, this will be resolved by the army.
Louise, I was thinking major western world revolutions such as the American, French, Russian and German in 1919 and not 2nd tier or third world countries.
In March 1917, the Russian army units billeted in St. Petersburg, most of whom were recently conscripted, were demoralized, sympathetically inclined and infiltrated by the Bolsheviks and by the second day of the demonstrations, many units joined the demonstrators. Within a few more days all the local units threw in their lot with the demonstrators turned revolutionaries.
Robert @ 10:39, that was an excellent BBC news clip. Yes, it does show some demonstrators riding along on a few moving tanks and in one case a demonstrator tussling the hair of a trooper. Many armoured forces are just parked waiting or guarding antiquities.
Ken (Kulak), this is not really a shameless plug, but check out the links on my latest blog entry. Just click on my name.
Here’s the live Twitter feed of an Al Jazeera reporter in Egypt. Utterly fascinating.
Louise, thanks for that and the following paragraphs from the BBC report, if accurate are significant.
“Police no longer functioning as law enforcement force. Army doing little to actually enforce order.”
“From Al Jazeera, police have not been seen for 24 hours. Talk of police and army having to make a decision. Whose side will they come down on?”
I just saw on FoxNews at 11:00 PM, tanks moving along a street loaded with civilians. At least that particular unit seems to have thrown its lot with the demonstrators. Dare we we already call this a revolution…it is starting to look like it.
I seem to recall that there were similar very optimistic feelings abroad when governments fell in Baghdad and Kabul, and that was with tens of thousands of NATO and/or U.S. soldiers in the streets. Eventually that optimism gave way to the rather stark reality that is the Islamic world’s inability to develop stable forms of government.
In Egypt, it seems to me, most western progressives and quite a few conservatives are engaging in the same ill-advised euphoria that is set off basically by phrases like “the people are in the streets and taking power,” somthing which rarely ends well anywhere to be brutally frank, but certainly isn’t going to end well in this case.
The main power brokers seem to be the Muslim Brotherhood who have had their spin doctors busy advertising their peaceful nature and their commitment to democracy. They also want Islamic law and say that “Islam the is the answer.”
I wonder what Egypt’s ten to fifteen million Coptic Christians think of that formula.
There is also a grave concern about relations between any new government and Palestine, Hamas, also Lebanon and Hezbollah (which seems to be taking over that country). Mubarak has managed to give the Palestinians as little support as any regional leader could safely do without getting himself blown up like Sadat in 1981. In other words, he has played a subtle peace game with Israel and they probably fear the consequences of a change in government more than they might say in public.
Final point, you have the intellectual brain trust of Obama, Biden and company calling the shots in Washington, likely cutting Mubarak loose to be placed in a no-win situation and then forced into rapid flight. There’s a fairly good chance he will be caught by hostile elements and strung up in this current climate. Does this really please a lot of people here? Are we this naive about the real governability of the people of this backward and largely illiterate country?
A country where a majority believed in 1999 that Israel shot down their airplane when it crashed after take-off from JFK due to the suicidal actions of the co-pilot? I would say this, the idea of a democratic Egypt is something like the concept of a truther-led America, ready to fall for any fable that is launched in the realm of public opinion — and how soon do you suppose it will be before something nasty is blamed on “the Jews” or “the westerners” ?? And did you know there are tens of thousands of them present and holed up in hotels at this point?
This is why I said earlier that I hoped Mubarak would hold on, because whatever he is (and I have no doubt he’s a strong-willed nasty piece of work) I can’t imagine anything very good replacing him. Don’t forget also, there are many tens of millions of people in Egypt, these rather large crowds who seem so idealistic and western are the only ones like that and other groupings will seem a lot less cuddly when they come out to play later (right now they are mostly watching and waiting).
Louise:
Outside of the former Eastern Europe, where are all these new democracies? Are you referring to such shining beacons of hope as Zimbabwe, Iraq, and Afghanistan? Or perhaps you had Venezuela, South Africa, or Haiti in mind? Or were you thinking of Russia, Burma, or Mexico?
With all the above examples, it’s easy to overlook Chile (which is the only exception to the list I can think of, and it certainly wasn’t without protracted birthing pains). But let me ask a different question: can you name a single Muslim nation that now offers its citizens a thriving democracy that did not in 1973? I’ll wait.
DrD 7:21
Democratic forces will certainly gain power except they certainly won’t become our allies or choose our lifestyle or model themselves after our political system. In a sense islam’s complaint against modernity is the same complaint we have. Except we embrace liberals and buy CFLs and they embrace Islam and buy grenades. Our answers to the great questions of life are divergent and very different. Contrary to what other m says the MB is a strong political force and has captured a sizable minority in the government even with mass arrests and being declared an illegal organization.
The green revolution in Iran is largely the product of disaffected youths I would be cautious to call them the “average” Iranian [though their demographic makeup is far healthier than ours]. Amadinejhad still has strong rural support. That’s basically moot anyways because the Revolutionary Guard is still firmly in control of Iran anyways.
The Anbar Awakening isn’t an embrace of secularism either just a rejection of being dominated by foreigners. It took the Iraqis what? a year to form a government? After that it was still largely sectarian. Nevermind the persecution of the Iraqi Christian community.
A democracy is not some elysium where all the peasants of the world rejoice. I’m skeptical it’s the great harbinger of peace everyone thinks it is. The people of Egypt are largely anti-Israeli. It took Sadat and his successors to make themselves hated friends and what did they get for it? How long will it be before the democratic forces of Egypt picks a fight with the democratic forces of Israel? Plus Egypt’s main battle tank is the M1A1 not a soviet T-72 it’s gonna be ugly.
Are you betting that a secular revolution happens before a belligerent Egypt provokes something? Cuz I don’t think you’re playing the odds.
Posted by: M>
“….they certainly won’t become our allies…”
What allies? We don’t need allies in the ME or North Africa!
If I want to learn how to make Kuskus I can look it up on Utube. Egypt doesn’t even have any significant oil reserves we could trade wheat for. F*ck-em let them go do what they do and just leave us alone, unless they have something worthy to trade that we may want.
If you want to tour the Pyramids some year, they will take your dollar whether you’re country kisses their ass’s or not.
Kinght 99 1:01
I would agree with you. I’m just saying that it sounds like from these people who are saying “democracy shall win through like true love except it’s real” is that they’ll join the grand confederation of democracies where “no democratic country has ever warred against another” and we’ll all go to the league of nations bar and get smashed. There is a strong possibility that they still may be our enemies or antagonistic towards us. It might not be a bad thing though because at least we can’t say they’re blowing us up because they’re oppressed at home. A new industry will emerge filled with crafty people to make crafty excuses! Hopefully I’ll find enough crafty people first and be in position to take market dominance…..
This will all go South. Any real chance of a democracy will be hijacked by Islamists.
Bank on it. When has it never not happened that way except Turkey , where now they have rejoined the Ummah, including traditional foes like Iran.
JMO
Interesting article…
SAMPLE:
-Fears of Iranian-backed terrorist infiltration were validated a few months after the Gaza ceasefire. In mid-April, Egypt announced it had arrested 49 members and sympathizers of an alleged Hezbollah cell who were planning terror attacks against Israeli tourists in the Sinai Peninsula, as well as looking to foment a coup in Cairo. A barrage of invective for Hezbollah followed, with one state-controlled Egyptian paper blasting Nasrallah as a “bandit” and a “monkey sheik.”
http://tinyurl.com/4uwavdo
Another interesting article…
SAMPLE:
-Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite militant group, appears poised to take control of government in Lebanon and install the next prime minister, sparking angry street protests and fears that Lebanon might realign away from the U.S.
http://tinyurl.com/4nl89fw
This poll by Israelis is an eye opener.
I tend to agree with the third choice.
Egyptian turmoil will lead to
1. a more democratic regime
2. military rule
3. radicalization and Islamization
Vote View Results
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/
“Mubarak has managed to give the Palestinians as little support as any regional leader could safely do …”
Good point by Peter O’Donnell, but you’ve got to remember that none of the neighboring states, save Hezbollah in Lebanon, give the Palestinians any support at all. Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia — it’s lip service only.
They need to install someone short enough that Barry can bow down to…
Great podcast Kay, thanks. I don’t see this whole thing turning out well for the west and Israel.
No one in Israel is sleeping well these days.
Fixed bayonets, and phasers on stun.
The mood is similar to the opening days of Desert Storm, “are the WMD’s going to show up??”