Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor

For the last five years I’ve been experimenting with a Canadian Federal election results predictor, a detailed description of which can be found in the Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor essay at The Sagacious Iconoclast blib, and which is defined as follows:

V_e = ( C – L ) × ( C + L ) ÷ 100

Here is a graph of V_e for the run-up to the 2008 federal election to date, currently showing the Conservative Party of Canada hovering around majority territory. I plan to update this graph from time to time between now and October 14:

Here is a graph of the history of V_e for the last five years:

52 Replies to “Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor”

When I was a kid I used to read a fictional series about Hari Seldon the inventor of psychohistory. I never thought I would see the beginnings of it on something called a blog from Saskatchewan. LOL
Well done Vitruvius.

Tenebris ~

A mathematician, scientist, and engineer are each asked: “Suppose we define a horse’s tail to be a leg. How many legs does a horse have?” The mathematician answers “5”; the scientist “1”; and the engineer says, “But you can’t do that!”
An engineer, a mathematician, a physicist, and a software developer are sitting around a camp-fire and the question comes up, “How many sides does a box have?” The engineer says that a box has four sides, a top, and a bottom. The mathematician says that a box has six sides, the faces of its rectangular prism. The physicist says that a box has twelve sides, because each of the prism’s faces actually has two sides. So the software developer thinks about this a bit, and says: “A box has two sides: the inside, where the software runs, and the outside, where the user runs.”

52 Replies to “Vitruvius’s Experimental Election Predictor”

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