[H]ouse prices have increased over the last year in 30 states, including increases of above 4% for two states (OK and WY), and increases at or above 3% for 12 states (OK, WY, TX, OK, SD, ND, MS, AL, NC, SC, KY, WV). Finally, more than half of the states (27) have experienced home price increases of 1% or greater, and 30/50 states have experienced price increases over the most recent year (2007:Q2 to 2008:Q2).
And the stock market returns for August:
S&P 500 (w/o dividends): 1.22%
S%P 500 (w/dividends): 1.45%
Dow-Jones industrials: 1.45%
NASDAQ: 1.80%
Russell 2000: 3.50%
Wilshire 5000: 1.37%
Those of us with money in the US stock market could sure use a few more months like August.
And the states where prices went down seem to be the ones where all the people live: CA, NY, Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Virginia, Mass., Minn., New Jersey… and their electoral votes will decide the election.
I think you mean the states where all the people used to live. I mean, it does not take a genius to see that somebody is driving up the prices in those markets; logic would indicate it is the people leaving the states where there are now too many houses.
Absolutely right, Kevin. I myself was scheduled to be moving out of California (to Iowa) this week. That’s been interrupted by the fact that a car hit me while I was bicycling home two weeks ago and broke my leg, but it’s going to happen, God willing, in six months.
When the recession DOES hit immediately after Obama gets elected, the media will suddenly report on the Bush-inspired eight-year-lagging recession.
Ouch, Jim. Wishing you well for a speedy recovery!
Gee SV Jim, if you had a house to sell in Silicon Valley you could probably buy Iowa. I’m always amazed at the housing prices out on the left coast. Also, I’m curious as to how “starving” artists manage to live in places like Mendicino and Carmel.
Get better soon, eh.
the poor economy. it only grew GREW, by about three percent depending on whose numbers you use. ya have to go negative to have a recession. libs don’t know this.
. “That’s been interrupted by the fact that a car hit me while I was bicycling home two weeks ago and broke my leg, but it’s going to happen, ”
Sorry to hear that Jim; but, hear in Saskatchewan the debate rages on about bikes on roads. Hopefully you were not being an “I have a right to be on this road regardless” bike rider ;-P
More Team America and less Forest Gump
More S.Palin and less Obamerama
Thanks to all for the good wishes for my recovery. I returned to the office about an hour ago from a trip to Stanford’s hospital and clinic to get the cast taken off and the sutures removed. Everything is going as well as it possibly could.
I do in fact have a condominium to sell; it will probably sell for four times what my house in Iowa is worth.
I am a cyclist who thinks that he belongs on the roads; then again, that’s what the law here says, in general. I don’t ride on the few roads where it isn’t legal for me to ride, and I always obey the traffic laws, except for the times when I make a mistake. I don’t want to inconvenience motorists in any way, and I have to say that the typical motorist around here is far more courteous to cyclists than the typical cyclist is to motorists. I try to be an exceptional cyclist in that regard.
S&P/Case-Shiller is probably a better report on US housing prices.
Yo, Silicon Valley Jim, how do you like September?
Looks like August was a dead cat bounce. I suspect things will be grim until the mortgage crisis is over, but we’re likely in a good time to buy.
If the feds ahve to bail out Freddie and Fannie, though, all bets are off.
Silicon V. Jim:
As a fellow bike rider, I hope you get well soon. I took a pretty bad tumble two weeks ago – just cuts and bruises, thank God – so I know how precarious it can be.
But for the economy: well, all the US stock market gains of August have been wiped out in 3.5 days of trading in September, and then some. The Dow is now 200 points lower than it was on July 31, and the SP500 is some 30+ points lower. And don’t get me started on the Toronto exchange, which has lost just under 10% so far this week (12:30 pm Friday). US jobless number jumps from 5.7% in July to 6.1% in August; that’s a fairly significant move, and again, that’s the BL3 number, not BL6, which is even worse. The NYSE index, which tracks all stocks, not just the biggest ones, set a new low for the year this week. The SOX has broken to a new 5-year low. And, despite a huge slide in the price of oil, the Transport index is 3% lower now than it was at the end of July.
Meanwhile, over in bonds, the yield on the US 10-yr Treasury is 3.6%, while headline inflation is 5.5%, so you’re already losing almost 2% per year, and most people have to pay tax on the interest income, so the real return is even worse.
Let’s try to connect the dots, shall we? More people without jobs, falling stock prices, negative returns on bonds, and rising inflation. I keep saying it – I’m not happy that this is the way things are, but if you’re going to make (or keep) money, you HAVE TO BE REALISTIC.
As for the housing numbers quoted (minor quibble: OK is counted twice in the list of “12” states), if your house lost 30% of its value, it will take 12 consecutive years of 3% gains just to get back to where you were IN NOMINAL TERMS. If you think that $100,000 in 2020 is going to be equivalent to $100,000 in 2007, I have some investments in carbon sequestration I’d like to discuss with you.
I’m confident the economy will recover; in fact, in the investment letter I provided to a client last week, I said I thought there would be a significant buying opportunity later this year. But I’ve been around enough to know that “wishing and hoping” doesn’t make the market do what you want; you have to be patient, and see what the market actually does. Right now, it’s one step forward and two steps back; not a recipe for building wealth.