A Hugh Hewitt interview with Fred Kagan;
HH: You come back from Iraq, you see these changes, you talk with it, and then you hear Harry Reid declare the war is lost. What was your reaction upon hearing that, Frederick Kagan?
FK: It’s very disappointing. I think a lot of people, there is a lot of hyperbole, there’s a lot of exaggeration, and we really need to look this squarely in the eye, and recognize that most wars, you don’t know who’s going to win until the end. And there’s been, there were rosy optimistic scenarios from the Bush administration early on, and declarations of victory that were mistaken, and now you’ve got Democratic opponents of the war rushing to say that the war’s lost, and that it’s hopeless. And the facts on the ground just don’t support that. The war isn’t lost. We certainly can still win, and it’s really very disappointing to hear the Senator majority leader just throw up his hands like that.
HH: One of the things I read in Max Boot’s piece, which I had not realized, is that the Iraqi special forces are operating along with our special forces at night in recon type situations, and are devastating the bad guys. That’s a change of significance.
FK: There have been a lot of changes along those lines. Iraqi forces at all levels are fighting in a very determined fashion. And even sometimes Iraqi local police, which no one has put any stock in, but a former cadet of mine who is now up in Salahaddin Province north of Baghdad, told me a story about the Iraqi local police who were engaged by a bunch of al Qaeda fighters who thought they would just drive through a checkpoint, and the local police shot them up, drove them off, and seized one of their cars. It was amazing. These Iraqi soldiers, both special forces even down to some of the local police guys, are fighting hard, putting their lives on the line, taking casualties and killing the enemy.
And a photo essay from Michael Yon;
The latest group of professional soldiers I had the honor of accompanying was the 1-4 Cavalry from Fort Riley, Kansas. They opened their doors in Baghdad and wanted me to tell the people at home the good, the bad and the ugly. They didn’t hold back; they provided plenty of all three. In one neighborhood where residents have been subject to a methodical slaughter, our people found an abandoned Christian college that had already proved itself the proverbial island in the storm.
The pictures and text are a real eye opener. I thank God for the US, her brave soldiers who fight for us, and God’s Church, which nurtures and sustains in the hell holes of this world. (What a blessing that this Christian college has provided an oasis of sanity, relative safety, and comfort to these deserving soldiers.)
My prayer for Michael Yon, our fighting men and women–sometimes one has to fight for peace–and our political leaders who won’t cut and run, e.g., Harper and Bush–is from Psalm 121:
“The Lord Himself is thy keeper: the Lord is thy defence upon thy right hand;/ So that the sun shall not burn thee by day, nor the moon by night./The Lord shall preserve thee from all evil; yea, it is even He that shall keep thy soul./ The Lord shall preserve thy going out and thy coming in: from this time forth for evermore.”
Regardless of Dem posturing the polict die in the ME is cast…there will be permanet US military outposts in Iraqu and other ME countries for the next 25 years.
Fred Kagan is your source of this latest optimistic ignis fatuus? How very provincial.
Up next at SDA! Daniel Pipe will proffer incisive examination of Benjamin Netanyahu’s assessment of Palestinian resistance.
“The level of violence has generally been unchanged” since the troop buildup began Feb. 15, Petraeus said at the Pentagon.”- April 26, 2007
Sourced-http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/17140091.htm
I believe an appropriate analogy might be dropping two grand in a casino but reassuring yourself that you haven’t actually lost anything until you quit gambling. In fact, you most likely have lost. It is the amount that hasn’t been determined.
Note what he said:
“Over the long term, the tactics of these terrorists are going to alienate them increasingly within the Muslim population at large, as is already happening in Iraq. The truth of the matter is that most Muslims don’t want to live in accord with Sharia law the way these guys interpret it, and they don’t want to be terrorized and killed. And that’s something that we’re going to have to plan, but we’ve got to show that there’s an alternative, and we’ve got to show that we’re prepared to help democratic regimes fight off terrorism.”
Exactly. What has to be understood is that modern life in our industrial world, can’t function within fundamentalist Islam.
The catalyst to start change in the ME, trapped within tribalism, was the Iraq War. But, my concern is that Iraq is now hiding behind the US military and not empowering its citizens into a middle class. It’s simply subsituting a new tribalism for the old one. That’s very dangerous.
Iraq has to do more to move itself out of tribalism and into a civic citizenship and enable a majority of its citizens to be middle class. Or, Islamic fascism will thrive.
It is an error, I feel, to think that all that is needed is to ‘kill off the Al Qaeda’. That is impossible, because, like a disease, unless you deal with the ‘root causes’ of Islamic fascism, Al Qaeda will continue to thrive. The ‘root cause’ is the tribal political mode.
Iraq is in a borderline phase – where it is teetering back into a tribal political mode. The key to reducing Islamic fascism to a minority, is to reject tribalism as a political mode and enable democracy, ie, a civic citizenship with a majority middle class.
There will always be Islamic fundamentalism, the world will always have followers of various fundamentalist ideologies, of fascism, of communism etc. The agenda is to reduce the ratio to a peripheral minority. How?
Democracy, ie a civic rather than tribal citizenship and a majority who are middle class. Middle class means that you are empowered by your actions not your kin membership.
Please don’t make the mistake (as Terry Gain has done) of confusing tribal membership, eg, a sense of hereditary ethnic identity, with a tribal political system.
A tribal political system is a TWO-CLASS and a hereditary infrastructure, where one small group, the elite, have political authority, and the rest of the population don’t. In a small to medium size population, in a non-industrial economy, a tribal political mode is correct. In a massive size population in the multi millions, in an industrial economy – the tribal political mode is disastrous. It must be THREE-CLASS, with the majority in the non-hereditary middle class.
My concern is that Iraq is hiding behind the US military, who are indeed, killing off Al Qaeda, BUT, the Iraqi are not dealing with the basic root cause of Al Qaeda – that tribal political mode.
This WILL lead to the expansion of Islamic fascism (aka Al Qaeda) around the world. The root cause has to be dealt with – and ‘killing them’ isn’t the root cause. It’s just a superficial action, like putting up a net against mosquitoes and ignoring the swamps wherein they breed.
The root cause of Islamic fascism has to be the dev’t of a civic political mode in the ME – and it is this to which the greatest attention should be given.
Iran is actively promoting fascism because it has imperialist ambitions in the ME. No Arab State wants Iran to take charge – but again, rather than them standing up to Iran, states like Saudi Arabia, Egypt etc are leaving it up to the US to fight that war against Iran.
I don’t agree that if the US were to leave, the ME would collapse; I think there’d be an Arab War – I think you’d have, finally, SA, Egypt, Jordan etc, confronting Iran. Why should the US do this for them? With the US confronting Iran, that means that these Arab states will continue their own tribal political modes – and that will serve as the catalyst for more Islamic fascism.
The Arab States have to confront Islamic fascism, have to confront their own tribal political modes, themselves. They won’t do it, as long as the US protects them from the RESULTS of their own tribalism, ie, as long as the US protects them from Islamic fascism. .
My concern is that Iraq, in this borderline phase, is teetering back into tribalism. IF, IF, it would take stronger measures to develop that non-hereditary middle class – OK. But, I don’t see that happening.
Tired of reading text? Well enjoy a short you tube video.
GOP leader says we are at war with Al Qaeda and Iran, [ one and the same ], on Iraqi soil.
The short John Boehner You Tube video paints a very clear picture, and 4 more videos. [ They do see it as it really is. ]
http://republicanleader.house.gov/
Incidentally, a note I fired off today. Feel free to use it.
They prefer FAX as you see on the house leader*s contact page / link.
TO: President George W. Bush
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
The Republican Leadership of the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives: The Hon. Mitch McConnell, The Hon. Trent Lott, The Hon. Jon L. Kyl, The Hon. John Cornyn, The Hon. John Ensign, The Hon. Kay Bailey Hutchison, The Hon. John R. Thune, The Hon. Richard Burr, The Hon. Norm Coleman, The Hon. Larry E. Craig, The Hon. James M. Inhofe, The Hon. Olympia J. Snowe, The Hon. John E. Sununu, The Hon. David Vitter, The Hon. Jim DeMint, The Hon. John A. Boehner, The Hon. Roy Blunt, The Hon. Eric I. Cantor, The Hon. Adam Putnam, The Hon. Kay Granger, The Hon. John R. Carter, The Hon. Thaddeus G. McCotter, The Hon. Tom Cole
FROM: YOUR NAME AND ADDRESS WILL APPEAR HERE
RE: Harry Reid Should Resign or Be Impeached!
The American people are fed up with the reckless and insensitive politicians in Washington who continue to use our troops and the War for nothing more than political gain. First, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi took it upon herself – without authorization and in violation of the Logan Act – to meet with Syrian Leader Bashar al-Assad, a known supporter of terrorism. And now, Majority Leader Harry Reid makes an out-and-out declaration of war against our troops by publicly proclaiming, **This war is lost.**
Caring about nothing more than scoring political points, Reid recklessly undermined our brave men and women in uniform as his comments are the equivalent of giving aid and comfort to our enemy.
In fact, Investors Business Daily wrote the following in response to Senator Reid’s comments:
**In aiding and comforting the enemy in wartime, Reid has betrayed the office he holds, shamed the Nevadans he represents and made the Democratic Party he leads synonymous with surrender. There is one way he can repair the damage he’s done to the nation: step down.**
I couldn’t have said it better myself.
Have you considered the message Harry Reid is sending to our troops in the field? Translated into plain language, Reid has said to American soldiers, sailors and marines: **You’re risking your lives for nothing.**
We the people know different!
Majority Leader Reid should resign. If he fails to resign, our leaders in Congress must force the issue by initiating expulsion or impeachment proceedings. Majority Leader Reid is a real and present danger to our military forces fighting in Iraq.
No member of the House or Senate has ever before betrayed American troops fighting for their country in this manner. He’s told them they can’t win and told the enemies of America they can’t lose. Harry Reid must go!
Sincerely,
=============== Via NewsMax
= TG
The big problem coming up is a confrontation between Sunni and Shia, not just in Iraq but across the Middle East. That’s the one that has to be thought through most carefully now.
“Please don’t make the mistake (as Terry Gain has done) of confusing tribal membership, eg, a sense of hereditary ethnic identity, with a tribal political system.”
Continue to split hairs ET. It is nothing but useless prattle.
Please don’t make the mistake of being persuaded by the uninformed opinions of someone who supports a war up to the tipping point, but no further.
Terry, I’m not splitting hairs and my definitions are not ‘uninformed’.
Tribalism, understood only as an hereditary ethnic identity and tribalism understood as an hereditary two-class political structure are not minute differences; they are valid definitions and refer to extremely different aspects of reality.
The first is what is called ‘familial’ or kinship identification. It sets up a homogeneous set of members who all claim kinship with a real or mythic ancestor; membership is hereditary.
The second is the political infrastructure of a society. It is only found in populations large enough to have several tribes or kin groups; that is, these societies have an agricultural economy that can support a larger population than the old hunting/gathering modes. This political mode ensures stability of that economy by setting up hierarchies among the several tribes; one tribe will dominate the rest; and even in that one dominant tribe, one family (called a clan) may dominate that tribe.
Those are two different methods of organization. You can have the first, in a civic democracy, but you can’t have the second in a civic democracy.
The fact that you don’t know about, and refuse to accept the vast difference between the two, means that you don’t understand the root cause of Islamic fascism. Here’s a quote from S. Pressman from an article ‘Why We Will Never See Democracy in the ME’. (I disagree; I’m sure we will)
“Extremist Islam is merely an overlay (and a recent one at that) atop the primal, unchanging mind-set of the East, which is tribalism, and its constituent individual, the tribesman.
Tribalism and the tribal mind-set are what the West is up against in Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, the Iraqi insurgency, the Sunni and Shiite militias, and the Taliban. …
Can the tribal mind embrace democracy? Consider the contrast between the tribesman and the citizen:
A citizen is an autonomous individual. A citizen is free. A citizen possesses the capacity to evaluate the facts and prospects of his world and to make decisions guided by his own conscience, uncoerced by authority. A congress of citizens acting in free elections determines the political course of a democratic community.”
A citizen, Terry, is a member of the middle class. A tribal political structure has NO middle class.
The fact that you refuse to see the vast difference – well, I can’t do anything about that.
The ‘root cause’ is the tribal political mode.
Just like a leftist, blame the system (society) rather than individuals who subscribe to criminal hehaviour.
Ol’ Hoss:
Excellent point: anytime you hear someone talking about “root causes” or blaming “society” for someone’s behavior, grab a brick.
TG,
Agree with what you say in total,it’s domestic politics the Democrats should be held to. The alternative is to revise the Vietnam War on a global scale.
Lincoln had to deal with the Copperheads, G.W.B.
has “Snakes On A Plane”, going global.
My concern is that Iraq is hiding behind the US military, who are indeed, killing off Al Qaeda, BUT, the Iraqi are not dealing with the basic root cause of Al Qaeda – that tribal political mode.
Al Qaeda aren’t the locals. Iran is a big player in fomenting the trouble too. In areas where the Americans aren’t providing protection adequately, the locals are empowering local warlords. It seems to me that if the US left, the vacuum will be filled with more and more local warlords, creating more fragmenting tribalism.
Tribalism is a problem in restricting a middle class, I think, because it is socialistic. It’s one of the reasons that Native Americans lag behind and do not feel empowered to compete financially against each other. But, Arabs have always had a strong merchant class to model after.
What astounds me is that so many people feel four years is long enough to invested in Iraq. The US occupation of Japan ended in 1952. Seven year. We were never struggling with daily assaults by outside insurgents there or a bigger context like the WOT. It was a piece of cake by comparison.
The US has to restore the infrastructure, lay the groundwork for a civil society and get the Iraqis on their feet to defend themselves against outsiders. These people can forge a nation if we give them those things. I think they are smart enough to figure out that the whole is only as good as the parts and they are ultimately safer in the preditory jungle of the ME as a whole country.
ET
This will be my last post on this subject today and I won’t respond to anything you write. You continue to demonstrate that you are unable to address my points and you continue to make bizarre statements such as your last one about what consitutes a citizen. I’ll pass on to my nine brothers and sisters of a factory worker the news that we weren’t citizens until we graduated from university.
You haven’t explained how the situation in Iraq will be improved when the U.S. concedes Iraq to al Qaeda. In fact, it doesn’t appear that you’ve given any thought at all to the consequences of an al Qaeda victory in Iraq.
You haven’t made clear why you would withdraw your support for the war at this crtical stage (as if you know more than Petraeus) nor have you explained why the Kurdish tribes have been able to pursue a path of peace and progess.
I suspect you’ve stumbled across some book or paper about tribalism that you just had to share with the rest of us. If Iraq is doomed by tribalism how is it that you’re just discovering this now? And if this isn’t new found knowledge why on earth have you been supporting a war which you knew was almost surely bound to fail.
Did you just want to go into Iraq and see what happened?
Is your last name Trudeau?
You’ve not supported your theory with one fact about how the Iraqi government is functioning. What laws have they passed which encourage tribalism and discourage individual action?
Your theories about the development of democracy are backwards. Peace and security will precede the devopment of democratic ideals and practices, not the other way around.
Read Maslow’s hierarchy of needs again and stop imposing your instant gratification, unrealistic, western timetable upon these poor people.
terry gain – that’s your decision, not to respond.
What in heaven’s name does a university education have to do with being middle class? Don’t you know what middle class means? It is a class that developed in society where your status was not hereditary; you rose or fell in authority and power in the society due to your own individual actions – not your hereditary kinship filations. And the middle class, with that emphasis on individual enterprise, is the backbone of an industrial economy.
I have never said or even implied that the US should ‘concede Iraq to Al Qaeda’. My point, which you haven’t addressed, is the emergence of a new tribalism in Iraq, protected by the US military, rather than the development of a civic political mode (ie, with a robust middle class).
Until that three-class system is established in Iraq and the ME – Al Qaeda, or Islamic fascism – will continue. You haven’t dealt with this at all.
You seem to think that Al Qaeda is akin to a specific group; it isn’t; it’s Islamic fascism and it doesn’t need specific leaders; it will emerge as long as dysfunctional tribalism exists in the ME.
Do you know what dysfunctional tribalism means? After all, in medium populations, tribalism is perfectly valid and beneficial. Dysfunctional is when it is enforced when the population has grown into the multimillions – and the economy is industrial.
Nor have I not defined the results of an ‘Al Qaeda victory’; as I’ve said, Islamic fascism would be disastrous.
You seem to think that all that has to be done to defeat Al Qaeda, is to ‘kill them all off’. I’m saying that tactic won’t work; as long as you have tribalism in that size of population, ti will foment Islamic fascism. You haven’t dealt with this.
I have never withdrawn my support for the war; I supported it right from the start and I maintain that it was the right thing to do. My concern now is that there is a serious ‘glitch’ in the situation – and that is,that Iraq is continuing tribalism, under the protection of the US, and is not setting up a three class structure. That situation will foster and foment Islamic fascism.
No, I haven’t stumbled across some paper on tribalism; I’ve taught it- and social organization in university for over 25 years and have several books on the ecological constraints on economic and population dev’t, on the concomitant infrastructure of societies, the relation of population size to societal and political organization and to economic mode. And, on how societal structures change -(as well as numerous articles on information dynamics and cognition – I won’t bore you with it).
There’s nothing new about the tribalism of the ME! I haven’t stumbled across this fact! It’s an old and well-recognized analysis. Nor is Iraq ‘doomed’ by tribalism! For heaven’s sake – the whole point of the war was to release the area from tribalism (which has no internal capacity to adapt) and enable it to move into democracy (a three class structure). After all, the West did just the same, in the period from about 1200 to 1500, when it moved out of a two-class to a three-class structure!
I disagree with you that my theories on the dev’t of democracy are backwards; you don’t first have ‘peace and security’ – and then, democratic dev’t. How are you going to get peace and security while your political structure is fomenting fascism? The two, ensuring peace and stability AND enabling democracy, MUST go together. My concern is that Iraq is not enabling a civic citizenship, but is replacing the Sunni with the Shi’ite.
And I don’t agree with such a linear ranking psychologism as Maslow’s.
…you know guys, there is such a thing as having your own blog.
…you know guys, there is such a thing as having your own blog.
I’ve enjoyed reading this, and i think it adds tremendously to this blog. I’m sure our host would point it out if she didn’t agree.
Today was one of many days i have been impressed with the content on SDA.
Okay, enough sucking up!
Don*t take it too hard Tomax, I would miss your excellent humour if you vanished, and I have been guilty of suggestions that risk hot water.
I*m trying to learn how to be diplomatic in mixed company. = TG
TG, cheque’s in the mail 😉
I appreciate Michael’s view on Iraq, so glad we have the Internet to get the real picture of things.
The democrats are idiots. Bush said we were going there to prevent Saddam Hussein from giving the terrorists WMD’s. Also, democracy.
Public service announcement defeatists:
Saddam is dead. Thus, he can’t give all those terrorists in Iraq WMD’s. Also, they’ve had elections. And by the way, I wish I got a blue finger for voting. Instead, I voted and all I got was this shitty minority goverment.
Ipso facto, we’ve achieved everythign Bush said we were there to do, mission accomplished. It’s time to bring the troops home and throw the victory parade.