Robert Kagan (Washington Post)
A front-page story in The Post last week suggested that the Bush administration has no backup plan in case the surge in Iraq doesn’t work. I wonder if The Post and other newspapers have a backup plan in case it does.
The U.S. is in serious discussions with commanders of the Mahdi Army to lay down their arms, an intelligence officer directly involved in Iraq operations told Pajamas Media Tuesday.
The American intelligence official spoke under the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the issue.
The Mahdi Army, a predominantly Shia Muslim force led by Moqter al-Sadr, has terrorized Sunnis into fleeing certain Baghdad neighborhoods and has been linked to Iran. Al-Sadr has disappeared from the Iraqi capital and is widely believed to have holed up in Iran. Al-Sadr’s family and senior officers are believed, by elements of American intelligence in Iraq, to have left with him.
With al-Sadr’s paymasters gone many mid-level commanders are unpaid. And so are the fighters under them. (In the Mahdi Army, commanders are responsible for the financial well-being of the men under their command.) Some have resorted to extortion, robbery and violent crimes. They are desperate for money. And they are also being hunted by U.S. and Iraqi soldiers throughout Iraq.
US military deaths are down 60% in the past month;
The remarkable decrease in killings among the US troops came at a time when more of these troops were deployed in the Iraqi capital, especially in districts previously regarded as extremely hazardous for them such as Al-Sadr City, Al-Azamiyah, and Al-Doura.
Bill Roggio has the nuts and bolts of the Baghdad Security Plan and greater Iraq security operation. Despite the coverage given to attacks on Shia pilgrims last week, sectarian violence is down significantly.
Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom in the MSM that the Surge couldn’t work it’s clear that it is working.
I’m not sure anyone in the MSM understood that the key to the success of the Surge is not just the infusion of additional U.S. troops but the greater infusion of properly trained Iraqi troops working alongside the Americans and significant changes to the ROE including the willingness of the Iraqi government to take on the Mahdi army.
The arrest by the Iraqi forces of 600 members of the Mahdi army at the outset of the Surge was largely ignored by the MSM , which was too busy panning the Surge to actually study the plan.
Thank goodness for a bit of good news for the US.
You would think that the various factions could look at the incredible prosperity that the Kurds are enjoying and the penny might drop but sadly they have chosen a different path.
Is there any doubt now that the Americans went into Iraq with too few troops to secure the peace?
Rumsfeld and others always argued that too many soldiers meant too many targets for insurgents.
Well, we have more soldiers now, and we have less soldier deaths.
I defended Rumsfeld for a long time. I don’t any longer.
I think the key here is the change in strategy. For the past four years the U.S. conducted mainly vehicular patrols operating from fortified enclaves. The problem with this has been that the insurgents controlled much of the area between the forward bases and were able to attack U.S. patrols at times and places of their choosing. Gen. Petraeus has changed all that by stationing troops in smaller units out in neighbourhoods.
On the face of it, it seems much more dangerous to have U.S. troops holding positions that could potentially be isolated and overwhelmed. It’s the only way to win though, and so far looks like its working. U.S. and Iraqi troops have been able to provide local security and call on support when it’s needed.
The “surge” was necessary to provide the number of troops to allow for this change in strategy. My guess is that its probably the minimum number Gen. Petraeus thinks he can succeed with.
Seems to me that if they can maintain the necessary political will, the insurgency will be defeated.
The comment about the state of Iraqi training is extremely relevant. Rumsfeld didn’t have those assets until very recently in his tenure. Reading the embeds who have been blogging about it, it really does sound as though they’re finally starting to get their acts together.
And when you think of the adversity, the numbers of police and military prospects who were blown to bits just standing in recruitment lines, the sectarian differences, the history of repression – it’s truly astonishing that they’ve come as far as they have in so short a time.
Dennis, the argument was whether 100,000 or 500,000 troops were needed. An extra 20,000 does not mean Rumsfeld was wrong.
(I’m not saying he was right. I don’t bloody know and neither do you.)
who cares about iraq? not here in okanagan- but i care about this scam what with hydro1 in ontario
Dennis, I give Rumsfeld his due in that he was needed to change the military mentality of WWII divisions as the paradigm. The culture of the Pentagon needed changed to meet the new reality. He did brilliantly execute the war with minimum destruction to people and infrastructure. Al-Sadr should have been murdered as soon as he showed his true colors, why that didn’t happen I’ll leave to historians. I suspect Malalki, who I think is an oaf, protected him. But, these are the cards dealt us.
One of the things I find amazing about so many critics of the war in Iraq is the assumption that there was/is some magic formulae which would have instantly brought peace and prosperity. If only that idiot Bush and dolt Rumsfeld had implemented more/less troops, shot the looters, kept the Republican Guard intact, not purged the Baathists, started elections faster/slower, talked to/attacked Iran and Syria then all would be fine.
What the critics seem to forget is that America is not God and the various factions fighting in Iraq are not idiots. No matter what the Americans did, Al Qaeda, the Baathists, religious militias, tribal leaders, Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia (to name a few of the actors) all would have adjusted their responses. In hindsight could some things have been done better? Of course, but name one military intervention where this is not the case.
In addition, after many decades of dictatorial rule the Iraqi’s themselves have to figure out what they want and this will take time. Canada and the US fought wars both with foreigners and with themselves before they became the thriving democracies they are today. Despite all this Canada came within a fraction or percentage point of splitting up in the last 10 years, we have an unelected senate, and a vote in my riding is worth 1/4 of a vote in PEI.
The biggest difference between Iraq and other military situations is how this one is being judged completely differently. Everyone expects everything to be perfect in just a few years. Look at the mess in Kosovo where they still have not resolved their political differences even after 10 years and there are still foreign troops. If may take another 5, 10 15 years for Iraq to become a functioning democracy and dramatically change the status quo of oppression in the Middle East. Or it may never happen but lets it least give it our best shot – quitting is for losers.
Great comment, Fritz.
There is another saying that applies to both Iraq and Afghanistan (and nearly every question of public policy, for that matter) – “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good”. Or the “better”.
“Well, we have more soldiers now, and we have less soldier deaths”. Dennis
Once again Dennis (and all others) if it’s countable use fewer rather than less.
Your criticism assumes the enemy can’t think.
If America had gone in with the forces suggested by Rumsfeld’s critics the insurgency would have laid low, the Iraqis would have seen no need to build up their forces, the Americans would have left, the insurgency would have begun immediately after the election of John Kerry and Iraq would now be truly lost.
And BTW the reason the so-called Surge is working is the infusion into Baghdad of massive numbers of properly trained Iraqi forces working with the Americans and changes in the ROE.
That there is a the lull in violence during the surge shouldn’t be a surprise – crime rates go down when their are more cops walking the beat. The question/worry is what will happen when the coalition troop numbers are reduced? Will the “Vietnamization” of the protection forces be far enough along to pick up where the Coalition forces leave off?
In Vietnam the coalition forces were withdrawn too quickly and the promised US air support after the last coalition forces had left was vetoed by the Democratic congress and senate. This is where the real danger of repeating “Vietnam” in Iraq exists and the Dems need to be reminded of it.
There is also a pattern of a spring lull in the violence – see the graph at this link:
http://icasualties.org/oif/hnh.aspx
Someone is obviously dyslexic. The correct number of U.S. troops killed in Iraq between Feb. 14 and Mar. 13 is 71, not 17. Here you go:
http://icasualties.org/oif/default.aspx
Scroll down to “Military Fatalities: By Month”, then click on the month and you will see day-by-day tallies, including the names of those killed and the cause of death.
Gord Tulk
Iraq is not Vietnam. The U.S is not facing a popular army. It is facing an unpopular insurgency which has nothing to offer the people except death and despair. The only way to lose to such an insurgency is to give up.
It’s not clear to me why you would be so ready to pan something which is clearly working.
As to whether the war is winnable I prefer the following opinion.
——-
Appeal For Courage
By Smash · March 14, 2007 10:26 PM
Finally, someone is circulating a petition that calls for fortitude over lassitude.
The “Appeal for Courage” — which reads as a response to the anti-war “Appeal for Redress” presented to Congress last month — has been circulating both at bases in Iraq and online though military blog sites.
Organizer Lt. Jason Nichols, a 33-year-old naval projects officer who has been in Baghdad since mid-January, said the goal is to keep lawmakers focused on letting the military finish its mission in Iraq, and not prematurely declare failure.
“The primary military lesson of Vietnam was that you could win a war on the battlefield, but lose it at home,” he said in an e-mail to Stars and Stripes. “We feel that although there are still tough days ahead, we are going to win the war in Iraq as long as we are allowed to stay until our job is done.”
The appeal, available at http://www.appealforcourage.org, calls for Congress “to fully support our mission in Iraq and halt any calls for retreat.” It calls the war in Iraq a necessary and just cause, and asks lawmakers to actively oppose “media efforts which embolden my enemy while demoralizing American support at home.”
Terry:
I am not panning anything. Yet. I’m just saying 30 days is far too early to start saying that the surge is working.
Iraq is not Vietnam, obviously, but the US gov’t is similar to what it was back then – congress and the senate are dominated by anti-war DEMS.
I very much want to see the islamofascists terminated but I, like many others, worry about the West’s resolve to follow through at this point in time.
Terry; thanks for the Appeal For Courage. There is no way a rag-tag army of cavemen can beat our armed forces. We can only loose for them at home. But for the average person, the only “news” input is from the MSM.
I have canceled my MSM papers and when their salesmen call me to renew my subscription I explain that it won’t be until they smarten up. Perhaps letters to their owners and editors?
Freedom of the press was never misused the way the MSM is corrupting it now during WW11.
Gord
Congress clearly has its share of Copperheads and the MSM is even more leftist and hopeless now than it was back then but the CIC is a conservative and the American public will support the war effort if they think it can be successful.
The MSM has convinced all but 28% of the public that the war can’t be won but that figure is soon going to double when the facts on the ground can’t be ignored any longer. The Surge is working.
The following from Gateway Pundit deals with your “time of year” argument:
——————–
“The Iraqi media is reporting even better news than what was reported yesterday…
The following is a Haider Ajina translation of an article which appeared in both Marsad Iraq and Aswat Aliraq on March 14, 2007.
Sharp decline in attacks, killings and assassination in Baghdad
In a press conference held by General Kamber, commander of Baghdad operation and general Qasim Atta, spokesman for Baghdad’s operation “Rule of Law”. Atta gave a summery of the operation and comparisons to crimes committed during the same period in 2006. The operation started on Feb.14.2007.”
The most important accomplishment of the operation “Rule of Law”:
1- Three homicide bombers killed before they could blow their cars up, in Baiaa & Sadar & Jame’ Bin Temimeh.
2- Arrest of Alqaida’s Mufti Hussein Medhat Haiali in northwestern Baghdad.
3- Ninety-Three terrorists killed, 713 terrorists arrested, and another 1152 suspects arrested.
4- Rescued 24 kidnapping victims; amongst them was Lieutenant General Thamir Sultan. Arrested 10 terrorists in Hai Aljihad. After interrogations, the suspects were found to belong to Alqaida.
5- 2000 returned to their homes in Hai Aladil, Intisar, Selman Pack, Alfadhil, Alrashdiah, and Rashid areas after they were forced to migrate.
6- Uncovered large caches of weapons and munitions in Aldorah area.
General Qasim Atta then started comparing data from 2/14/2006 to 03/14/2006 to data of incidences during operation “Rule of Law” 02/14/2007 to 03/14/2007. The following is the result of the data comparison:
1- The decline in murders (bodies found with no ID) by 28%. The health ministry and Police comandry have confirmed these numbers.
2- Car thefts are down 65% from 57 to 37. Twenty cars were stolen and seventeen were as a result of carjackings.
3- Assassinations have declined 95%. From 517 to 22.
4- Kidnappings are down 90% from 98 to 10.
5- Bombing crimes are down 38% from 163 to 102.
6- Car bomb crimes are down 36% from 56 to 36.
7- Mortar attacks are down 47% from 204 to 109.
8- Hand grenade attacks are down 70% from 10 to 3.
9- Katusha attacks are down 35% from 23 to 15.
10- RPG attacks are down from 6 to two attacks.
11- Deaths are down 85% from 1440 to 265 and wounded are down 77% from 3192 to 781.
12- Motorcycle bomb attacks are down 100%, 1 before and 0 now.
13- Terrorist arrests are up from 160 to 713.
14- Suspect’s arrests are up from 160 to 1152.
15- Terrorist attacks are down 84% from 94 to 19 incidences.
Haider Ajina comments:
Finally some solid statistics to show what operation “Rule of Law” or “Fardh Alqanoon” or what we know as the “surge”, is achieving. I have been hearing this from my relatives for about a month now, and now the first set of numbers are out.
I have not seen this news in any of our main media outlets. The Iraqis we have trained are taking the lead in much of this operation and our own forces are putting a tremendous effort in this operation. The recognition and thanks are mute.
We must show our appreciation, gratitude and pride in our men and women who are putting their lives at risk, sacrificing and relentless laboring to succeed in our mission in Iraq. It has been but one month and only in Baghdad that this operation has taken place.
The results are being felt in all of Iraq. Volunteers to join the Iraqi forces in Anbar provinces are the highest they have been since the liberation. Anbar province Tribes are banding together to fight Alqaeda and kick them out of their areas. Alqaida recruiting efforts are meeting resistance from locals in Anbar province, etc.
Once the “Rule of Law” plan takes stronger shape it will be expanded to the restive areas of Iraq in Anbar Province. Iraqi forces are showing that our training and equipment supplies are paying dividend. They are stepping up and taking charge, as they should.
In Basra the British are putting the final touches on handing over security to Iraqi forces in the second largest city and province in Iraq. The list of accomplishments is long it involves Agriculture, Industry, privatization; infrastructure development, employment, healthcare and economic improvement, etc.
These are not signs of weakness, loss or defeat, quite the contrary.
Regards,
Haider Ajina
I wonder if The Post and other newspapers have a backup plan in case it does.”
by this quip, are we to take it the printed media is supposed to have it all laid out ahead of time depending on what story actually takes place, as opposed to merely observing and going from there???
journalism via the think tank, now theres an idea whose time has come…..
any word from the bushists (gee, that remoinds one of a modified much more rude spelling of the word eh?) regarding the FACT this latest adventure has hit the treasury to the tune of TEN TIMES the original selling price ???
aaaaand who is gittin’ the lions share of this cost overrun ???
oh. defense contractors, private companies in iraq, that group….
Terry:
The numbers are encouraging but I won’t begin talking about “mission accomplished” any time soon. Six to 12 months from now, maybe, but more likely 3 to six years from now is a better point in time.