If you’re an SDA regular then you’re keenly aware of the abject failure of the Covid-19 models. Now there’s a new model that is warming the hearts of Leftists everywhere: this model predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide. And all because of the economy. You know, the economy that the Democrat governors of New York, Michigan, Illinois, and California are trying their best to damage to the greatest extent further. Yet somehow this model predicts that Trump will get blamed for the terrible missteps of these governors.
I’ll take Facts over Models any day. I am regularly presented with models trying to tell me what will happen by experts who assure me it is correct. They are always surprised when I don’t believe them and later when the results don’t match the prediction.
The model is quite simple,
Bad Economy = Incumbent loses
Good Economy = Incumbent Wins
The level of predicted win or loss depends on the actual numbers for unemployment rate, inflation, and GDP. The model doesn’t care about little details like why? The model doesn’t have an input for pandemic, nuclear war, Carrington Event solar storm, or even SMOD, so it will not take any of those into account for the prediction; and the reporters are both too stupid and too Trump Deranged to ask any intelligent questions.
Not that the MSM thinks its customers are stupid and forgetful, BUT They ran the same flipping story three months ago in February, saying President Trump was likely unbeatable because the economy pre-Chinese Coronavirus was booming.
What this model tells me is that IF the voters blame President Trump for the terrible economy, he will lose. If they blame the Chinese Coronavirus, China, or the Democrats, Trump will likely win; especially if business is booming in September and October and unemployment is dropping.
Something similar happened in 1992, Bill Clinton and the press convinced voters the recession was the worst in 60 years, the absolute worst since the Great Depression; even though the recession ended in August 1992, months before the election that GW Bush lost. President Trump remembers this. He will not let the Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) lie about the real economy.
Two months ago:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/21/trump-economy-election-1230495
“How Trump is on track for a 2020 landslide. Economic models point to a Trump blowout in 2020.”
“We had to destroy the nation, to save the nation”
and..
“never let a opertuninity go to waste”
Dems want to destroy small( 500 ) business because they’re cranky, individualistic, don’t “contribute” via bribes, lobbyists ( retired Dems/rethugs ).
Further the want to pass trillion dollar swag to their followers, and new defectors and bribe the weak.
I wonder is it the same model they used in 2016? Inquiring minds want to know.
Let’s discern between complex models that attempt to predict human behavior and real models, like used in astronomy etc…. Just saying.
That said, when it comes to Covid19, it’s not just the models, it’s the statistics that go unquestioned. For example, we have all heard stories of a coworker’s elderly father-in-law, with end stage lung cancer, going into hospice for his last week of life only to have his death attributed to Covid, much to the stunned surprise of the family. I’m not implying that there is a conspiracy, just that these diagnostic decisions are riddled with ambiguity and subjectivity. Clearly Germany has a more stringent criteria for identifying Covid deaths as their stat is 1 death for every 10,000 of population. For the USA, it is 3 deaths, and in the UK 5.4 deaths, for every 10,000 of population. Not to mention, it’s not that easy to compare apples to apples because some data is missing for some jurisdictions. This works both ways, because in the early days, deaths were under reported since it took some time for nursing home deaths to catch up with the reported statistics. Just something to consider.
“Five People Shot In Washington – Die From COVID-19”
https://realclimatescience.com/2020/05/five-people-shot-in-washington-die-from-covid-19/
1. Whenever you use or see a model, check the assumptions in the model. Many modellers fail to check their assumptions, and usually don’t state what the assumptions are.
2. How reliable is the data used to populate the model?
3. Check the output of the model to the possible range of input variables.
If you see an article on a model that doesn’t mention the three items above, ask yourself is the author and/or modeller trying to sell me something?
It’s just a push-poll. It’s like consultancies. They produce whatever answer the client wants to hear.
“The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote.”
No sweat. All one does is simply affect the weighting of the various factors and regions. In an earlier time I was involved in how this kind of sausage is ground up in the machine.
Trump has a big challenge to be re-elected. I see his issues as;
– a media campaign over 4 years to create doubt in his ability and honesty and his intelligence. The question might be how much voters listen anymore. The power of propaganda should not be discounted.
– frankly Trump’s mouth and twitter habits get him in more trouble than necessary
– C-19 scares people and the economic fallout cannot help an incumbent
– Trump’s initiatives threaten many foreign countries and many businesses. These forces have a very vested interest in seeing his defeat.
Strengths:
– Bringing manufacturing back to the USA had major capital investment going on. Mainstreet sees that.
– China Policy: Trump is the winner in public opinion whether it is economic or military considerations.
– Iran: Again Trump wins. Not just over Iran but all of the ME.
– International Trade: It was both the DNC and the GOP who were championing globalization. Trump challenged this and it has become painfully obvious that the USA traded off access to their domestic market to cheaply. The elites benefited and the street did not.
– Defense: Trump’s demands that allies carry their weight plays well to most Americans.
– Trump’s support with blacks and hispanics has grown during his term. Pundits say that if he can poll +12% in these groups he will likely win re-election.
– Trump does well on the stump but does C-19 prevent this?
– The GOP hit gold with their technological advantage in 2016. Do they retain that in 2020?
There is little middle ground. Most minds have been made up. It’s not Trump that is polarizing, it’s the media that is polarizing, with their constant stream of propaganda, distortion, hyperbole, half-truths, omissions, and outright lies.
Most elections, even ours, national and provincial, are decided by the middle, independents, and centrists, no more than 10% of the voters.
Most polls in the US are distorted, either by leading questions, obscure wordage, or under representation. The last point is well known that the typical poll over samples Demos by up to 10 pts, and it skews results. Various reasons for it.
Any polls right now mean squat.
If the US elects the senile, old, corrupt douche Biden, they deserve the pain and suffering that would incur. I doubt it will happen, though the MSM, and social media is stacked against common sense.
CT”frankly Trump’s mouth and twitter habits get him in more trouble than necessary”… try supporting that with some facts, as I and others see that as one of his strengths, he uses those to out the lying media. As when he said there are good people on both sides, on the Charlottesville incident, he was attacked, even ho he was correct, and it was a mild statement. When he is attacked for moderate and/or correct statement, which he often is, then eventually he will out the media for who they are. And he has done that in spades.
their model is based on a presidents/political party….policies destroying the economy
…not on a pandemic
Trump’s policies were booming
DJT has this sussed out.
His plan is simple. There is a clear and present danger.
It is the Chicoms.
They are a very real threat to world freedom (especially to many in southeast Asia and the American Navy is making some Chinese sphincters tighten) and that has become especially obvious even to liberals.
In times of danger nobody wants a doddering fool like Nigga Joe in charge of anything.
Xi and the Chicoms are scared shitless of DJT.
Thus endeth the lesson.
Accurate, yet, he could be called Cornpop Joe for obvious reasons.
What a total screwup by Quid Pro Joe yesterday, but his media water carriers and lapdogs everywhere are doing their best to mop up that mess.
Even Scott Adams is dismissing this, that Joe was “joking around”. Sorry Adams, on this one, you’re dead wrong. The rules of race, for years in the media, has been that it is not a joking matter. Or so it seems, as each conservative that has “joked” has been howled and shamed until their spineless apology.
During a dull Parliament House dinner, Sophie Trudeau leaned over to chat with finance minister Morneau. “I bought Justin a parrot for his birthday. That bird is so smart, Justin has already taught him to say over two hundred words!”
“Very impressive,” said Morneau, “but, you do realize he just speaks the words. He doesn’t really understand what they all mean.”
“Oh, I know”, replied Sophie “but neither does the parrot.”
Reminds one of:
“Dewey defeats Truman” headline.
Elections are decided by people with weakly held positions. People with strongly held political views rarely switch. This election will come down to Trump’s getting out to all states where he has a chance and pushing the populist messages that Joe Six-pack can relate to. He will maintain the vote of those that see Biden and his Evil Party as worse than the loose cannon populist as well as die hard Trumpsters. Given the extent of demographic and economic change since 2016, I think it will be close.
the whoohan flue came from China
The jobs were shipped to China
Trump is bringing back jobs from China, and started that before the the whoohan flue came here
DimoKKKraps have been real totalitarians during this whoohan flew, and people are noticing that
All that the dimokkkrap congress has done since 2018 is try to impeach Trump, and not govern, people notice these things
This model predicts perfectly except when it doesn’t.
So here’s mine:
Trump is going to win all the states he did in 2016 plus Minnesota, Virginia and Colorado.
He’s also going to pick up between 15 and 20% of the black vote. And 53% of the popular vote nationally.