48 Replies to “It’s Probably Nothing”

  1. Let them; and don’t roll in to repair it. Let it stay broken.

    When no more goods from China are getting past the port of Vancouver, when no car in Ontario has been fuelled for a month, when no home in Quebec has been heated for a year, …

  2. It is Valentines Day today. I said two weeks ago that this would be a good point on the calendar to assess whether COVID-2019 is out of control in the US like it still is in Wuhan China.

    The good news is that we in the US are NOT seeing massive amounts of person to person infection here in the US like I feared. In fact, the total number of infected here in the US is 15 or 16, and the 25 or 30 additional cases caused by person to person have not happened. Not even close to my pessimistic fears. Thank God, the Trump CDC, and the quarantines.

    Compare to the plague ship in Japan. COVID-2019 has spread by person to person and other contact to over 218 people, including 20 Americans, which are more than we currently have in the entire US. (Strangely, I haven’t seen an update of these numbers in the last 36 hours,)

    The US CDC does fear that this quarantine plan could break down, and we could see a future rapid spread of COVID-2019 in the US.


    Let’s see what happens in two weeks? My now optimistic prediction is the quarantines and contract tracking here in the US will continue to work, and we will not see more than 30 person to person transmissions here in the US by Leap Day, February 29. That would mean we are continuing to not have a potential epidemic here.

    In the mean time, keep washing your hands, and continue to prep just in case.

    1. Agree that we know a lot more about transmission now. Some modelers are saying R0 4-6 in pre-quarantine Wuhan and on cruise ships. In two more weeks we’ll know if we got the R0 below 1 in most places outside China. Should know soon if we have the Singapore issue of people that can’t be traced to the original Chinese carrier – carriers under the radar. We’ll also have transmission data from different quarantine approaches around the globe and we will have data from Africa and central/south America. That said I want to know what is happening to the 75% or so of people that are neither dead nor recovered. Saw an interview with a Wuhan doctor in the Singapore? paper saying 75 % haven’t had a “resolution” (which fits the public data). He also said he had 3 treatment modes – Coma = coma med, kidney failure = dialysis and lung failure = artificial lung. Wondering if the aftermath for something larger than the 5% – 2% death rate we’ve been talking about is going to be the real story. Kind of like Polio. As earlier stated, I believe we are experiencing the first intersectional virus- Bat-ebola-HIV-MERS/SARs. Should be talking about Spanish flu/Polio or something.

      That said the most interesting post I’ve seen included links to research on small dead animals. Apparently an engineered corona virus (engineered so small mammals can catch it) introduced to SARS vaccinated mice and ferrets resulted in all of them dead by cytokine storm. The implication was hey we engineered this super Bat virus and it might be useful – lets see if SARS vaccine works. Best conspiracy theory: what if due to a history of SARS leaks https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137 from Beijing level 3 lab, and other labs, a promising SARS vaccine was used on the population near labs, perhaps for the military and elites too? Then Wuhan has an oopsie with a new engineered relation that causes cytokine storms in the vaccinated? That would explain Wuhan virulence vs outside China – if the data trends continue. It would also support the conspiracy theories in China that the West did this to them. Would also explain the reaction in China and protocols currently being used in Beijing. It also gets points for irony.

      1. China has built the airport in Addis Ababa, amongst the many other infrastructure projects throughput Africa using Chinese management and labour. AA is the main transit hub for the whole of Africa, connecting it with Europe, the Middle East and China. A lot of people went home for Lunar New Year, a lot returned and crickets! If you don’t test for something, you can’t find it and anyway health resources are stretched to provide the basics. I wish the WHO would test AA airport workers just to see if maybe Covid19 had arrived but, hang on, the Chinese seemed to have leaned on that Ethiopian fella, head of WHO, to downplay it so who knows what else they’re suppressing.

          1. That Ebola outbreak has been going on for about 2 years now and you’d barely know it from how quiet the western media is.

    2. Yea, well in Canada things could get significantly worse. Flights still arrive from China, no mandatory screening, no mandatory quarantine, just lots of SJ Noise from the Country’s Propaganda outlet (CBC) on chastising Canadians for being RACIST BASTARDS…!!

      Besides COVID-19, we have 3-400 Native SCUM supported by a similar group of non native SCUM that has for all intents and purposes shut down half the country’s Railways….Police that are sitting idle eating doughnuts while holding Court Injunctions they will not enforce (I smell UNIFOR – CUPE – SOROS – UN), and a Prime Minister Eunuch that has for all intents and purposes Abdicated his responsibility over National Affairs. Xim, Preferring to remain in Africa as he campaigns with Canadian Tax Dollars en masse for a Seat in the UN.

      We also have a Province (Quebec), demanding that a major infrastructure project not be built in another province (Alberta), 2000 miles away and the same useless TWAT of a Prime Minister seems unlikely to approve said project which has gone thru 10 yrs of regulatory BULLSHIT. I warrant that should said projet not be approved, there will be (and there had Goddamned better be), a REVOLUTION IN Alberta with calls for a Separation Referendum and UDI.

      But, Dont worry be happy
      We are in fine shape…….PM DickSpank is on the Case or NOT.

    3. I hate to break it to you but Asians are taking flights into Canada first and then connecting to the USA through Toronto. My daughter just came home from a trade show in Toronto and she told me all about it.

    4. It’s starting to get a good foothold in Japan beyond the Diamond Princess.

      US and Canada aren’t out of the woods yet.

      1. Actually Japan seems to holding the line. Only 29 cases and 1 death vs 9 recovered. Singapore and HK are also holding and these officially the three most infected places other than China. But these are NOT shitholes. None knows how many people have died already in India or Bangladesh….

  3. TOKYO (AP) — Tokyo Olympic organizers and the International Olympic Committee said Friday there is no “Plan B” for the 2020 Games, which open in just over five months and have been jolted by the outbreak of a virus in neighboring China.

    At least we will beat the Chinese Gymnastic team,
    If they don’t show up.

  4. There was an interesting article on viruses (can’t remember the link) in which the author argues that viruses are encapsulated in a rubbery gel (basically a hardened mucus) and can’t easily be destroyed by hand gels or other non-mechanical treatments. Only the act of washing repeatedly with soapy warm water for about a minute will get rid of MOST of the gel-encapsulated viruses by mechanical breakdown (crushing the mucus and exposing the virus). Spraying isn’t going to help much because the outer gel gets covered but it protects the virus within. Remember that the next time you see a crazy person washing down a grocery cart with their personal rag. Wait til they’re done then steal their cart. Pro tip of the day.

    1. Exactly what I was thinking. This is purely for show and the placebo effect. It possibly do anything against the virus.

  5. In spite of everything they are doing….it’s spreading….Mexico has quarantined people now

    If this gets into Mexico, Central America, Caribbean, even South America…..it’s going to be a total crap storm of the people trying to get out and come here

  6. It probably is nothing. Communist regimes are marked by incompetence, coupled with Chinese cultural aversion to embarrassment. (Saving Face)
    There could be nothing in the spray. It is just to make people think their corrupt, incompetent government is doing something.
    It could be DDT, or whatever they could get their hands on, again, to appear to be doing something.
    It could be a disinfectant, in a misguided belief that that will prevent the virus spreading.
    It could be an attempt to control other illnesses (pneumonia actually kills a lot of flu sufferers).
    It could be chasing away demons.
    It could be performance art. (are we missing any of our own wackos? No, all accounted for)

    1. Apparently there is also wide spread belief that you will know when a “Dynasty” is ending because massive catastrophe. Now all we need is for Betelguese to go supernova giving a “divine sign”.

      I think we need a meme contest like make iron lungs great again or Bat HIV ebola – diversity is our strength.

        1. Solidarity in dark humor. We are living through something historic, or not.

          Old: better dead than Red
          New: better dead than racist or something

  7. It could be a Bio Engineered organizm…one whose origin may well have been Winnipeg. (our very own Level 4 Lab)
    That’s where I’ll place my bet.
    First confirmed case was Dec 01
    CDC/WHO not notified till end of Dec
    In one month pretty much the whole country is on lockdown..??

    This massive lockdown-crackdown, crazy Equipment being used, hospitals being built, quarantine facilities set up – mandatory incarceration in said Quarantines, Crematoriums working flat out 24/7..??? Yet China keeps saying its only some 1250 dead.?? hahaha…not Fkn likely

    Personally, I think that number is more in the 75-100,000 range or higher.

    But Yea, just an ordinary type of flu dontcha know..!!

    1. Steakman we know the sequence therefore we know the virus. And, as I loved to tell my students who asked about GMOs, Mother Nature is a far more vicious genetic engineer than humans can even imagine. China didn’t build this one.

    2. “I think that number is more in the 75-100,000 range or higher.”

      Much higher than that. 65K is the official figure. By tonight it is likely to reach 70K. There is no point for them to lie and pretend that for example 100K is in 65K. There is point to pretend that .5M is 65K…

    3. hay Steack, I was in suthern China first week of December, and there is a huge red dot in that area , indicating many effected people there. Glad I got out OK and in time. I haven’t heard from my friend who lives there since end of December

    1. If you click on the link under the video in the Kate’s post and scroll down … it appears that Chicoms are shooting people on the streets too.

        1. Like I said “it appears”, Why are they carrying assault riffles while wearing hazmat suits????

          And like you said, there is plenty of videos showing unrestrained thuggery by chicom enforcers.

          1. I agree with you wholeheartedly.
            I’m not saying its not happening. They will be using force to detain and disappear people.
            I linked “QAnon s twitter account to show Many have been duped -16K views-

  8. It was in the early to mid ‘60s of the past century. The Cultural Revolution was on. The Chinese communists fell out of favor in the majestic paradise of Soviet Union and by an order of the soviet communist imperialists in the rest of the socialist states run by communists in the central Europe.

    We were told in school that the program of Chinese at that time was to get into war. The Chinese calculated that if there was a major big war, that they would outlast the rotting no good capitalists by the sheer numbers of China however many Chinese would be killed. They had a plan.

    I understand that this is somewhat of a stretch.

    What’s the plan?
    I ask.

    1. Pure Propaganda for the Peasants and Proles of Red China.

      Before nuclear weapons, they may have thought that sheer numbers are all they need for success. After the invention of the hydrogen bomb? SAC would have lost maybe a dozen planes, mostly to accidents and mechanical breakdowns. The Chinese would have lost half their population in 48 hours, and much of the remainder in the next thirty days.

      It would also be hard to conquer the world when your logistics are so primitive that you and your peasant army can’t even project power 200 miles beyond your own border.

      Who could they invade? India? Over the Himalayas? They tried that and failed. Russia? Into the vast expanse of nothing that is Siberia or the ‘stans yes? Against a Nuclear armed Soviet Union? (See SAC above). How about Taiwan? Or Japan? Across seas defended by the USN and its submarines? And SAC?

      I know! They could attack South against Korea, or Vietnam! Wait? Didn’t they try the first in 1950? And didn’t they try the second after Vietnam invaded Cambodia to remove the genocidal Pol Pot? Didn’t the NVA hold the line?

      Pure propaganda. “Behold the might of the People’s Army!” We are stronger than any peasants that may face us. We can mow down millions of nameless farmers revolting against Beijing, or thousands of students in Beijing! That is why they have actually been turning their PLA and PLAN into modern military weapons since 2000.

      I wonder how soon the current term will end for President for Life Xi Jinping? Who, or how many will replace him?

      1. You see, in this here case, they would not need to fire one shot.
        All they need to do do is steal one from Canada, splice and modify it. Then it gets out from the lab and stage is set.

  9. I know I commented on this earlier. I guess it was not here. Sure must make the coffee taste great. Which is more poisonous?

  10. Wuhan Coronavirus—WUWT Update
    Guest Blogger / 6 hours ago February 14, 2020

    Guest post by Rud Istvan,

    ctm posted my longish scientific commentary written last Sunday on Monday. The situation is still rapidly evolving. Much more is now known than last Sunday. This updates my previous commentary and the general knowledge about Wuhan, adding new factual information plus additional research. For those interested, the WSJ online (paywalled, but I am a subscriber) has added a new coronavirus section tracking Wuhan daily news because of the importance to China and global supply chains. I rely on it here using today’s WSJ noon update.

    A special h/t to previous commenters Robert of Texas and Nicolas McGinley, who added much to my previous post with many erudite comments


  11. I feel sorry for the people on the cruise ship off Yokohama. By now they have to be aware that the virus survives travel through air ducts. It’s probably something like port side decks eight and nine all have the virus while starbord eight and nine are fine. I’d want off of the death boat.
    The proper thing to do would be to take on some tents and head for the Marshall Islands. Set up a clinic there. At least those who are not yet infected would not face interminable quarantine untill they go bonkers or get deathly ill.