Acceptable Catastrophic Error

Unsettled Science Wuhan Flu 34 Comments

Is the phrase of the day. When the goal is universal vaccination you can make as many of them as you like. Grab a coffee.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Vaccine Statistics, Part One

The former Director of the CDC is making what I call an Acceptable Catastrophic Error. This is the kind of error one is allowed to make when they are perceived to have the correct opinion. Arguments and statistics used towards the goal of getting every single person vaccinated for COVID are given far less scrutiny and are accepted as true more readily, than any arguments or statistics that might be perceived as counterproductive towards that goal.

When the former Director of the CDC, or anyone else for that matter, says someone who is infected with COVID is 100 times less likely to die if they have been vaccinated, it does not matter how far off that number is. It will be readily forgiven no matter how inaccurate. It is the goal of universal vaccination, not truth, that appears to be most important.

There are a lot of acceptable catastrophic errors.

Lies, Damned Lies, Vaccine Statistics, Part Two

The last article focused on severely misunderstood statistics. Today I am focusing on what can only be described as a deliberate lie.

Today’s example is an impressive tour de force of falsehood. This example contains

  • Cherry picked data
  • Getting the cherry-picked data wrong by an order of magnitude
  • Comparing the cherry-picked data against other data that do not represent what they are claimed to represent

All of which will be permitted, and repeated, because they promote universal-vaccination. They are Acceptable Catastrophic Errors.

It’s a long read but a very good one. You don’t need to be a math geek to see what’s been going on. The vaccine efficacy numbers are misinformation, and the authors explanation is excellent.

34 Replies to “Acceptable Catastrophic Error”

  1. Hey Francisco. You know about this one? This was the “outbreak” that got the CDC to extend their masking mandate.

    https://phantomsoapbox.blogspot.com/2021/08/new-cdc-mask-guidelines-based-on-bear.html

    Two words: Bear Week. No, not the Spring Bear Hunt. 40,000 gay men swapping spit for a week in Provincetown Massachusetts, 800 of them tested COVID-19 positive. Think naked mosh pit, but turbo+nitrous version. For a week.

    What’s amazing to me is that there were only 800 cases.

  3. Talk about cherry picking. Sure the tweets were awful. I rolled my eyes as soon as he cited his unsupported premise “If we … [use some number I just made up.]” A better use of time might have been a careful examination of what we do know and don’t know, instead of a painstaking fisking of a sloppy tweet by a careless thinker.

  4. Lies and bullshit and I don’t care how many perverts get the flu, it ain’t going to kill them.

      2. Well, what’s the point then? It’s the best we’ve got. Why bother tracking adverse events at all. Causation proof would be an autopsy. Ain’t going to happen. Not a reason to dismiss trends that might emerge from VAERS. Really Alan, how do you suggest we track vacvine adverse events? Maybe you don’t think there are any.

    2. you aren’t allowed to self report your adverse events, you have to have medical treatment, and then your doctor decides if it’s an adverse event.

      so for example, if you have a shingles outbreak, because the vaccine lowered your immune system sufficiently for the shingles to present, that’s not a side effect of the vaccine, even though the vaccine is a proximate cause.

      1. Besides, if your doctor knows what is good for them, they will be quiet about Vaccine side effects anyway.

  6. I know I’m not alone when I say that I’m sick and f*cking tired of so-called experts, family doctors who have zero experience or training in virology (Yeah Ryan Meili, I’m looking at you) and unionistas seeking out reporters in order to pontificate on the government’s efforts to return to a semblance of normalcy here in Saskatchewan. Particularly the nurses’ union and the teachers’ union infuriate me with their constant air of entitlement as they bleat ad nauseam about the extra work and danger that they must tolerate in order to do their jobs. In the vast majority of cases, the dire predictions of Covid Amageddon are nothing more than a cynical attempt to discredit anything that our premier has implemented in the way of opening up the province. Predictably those making the most noise will continue to receive paycheques regardless of what transpires. I guess what I’m trying to say is that those that choose to ignore the facts and spread fear due to pure ignorance or ulterior political motives should just stfu.

    I firmly believe that life will return to normal shortly. My only regret is that when the government’s approach proves to be correct, those that were making it a daily mission to propagate apocalyptic scenarios will not have their quotes stuffed into their smug faces and be held to account for needless fearmongering. They will be allowed to scurry back under their rocks as if nothing had happened when, in fact, they should be chastised and ridiculed at every opportunity.

    In the meantime, the local media is no doubt preparing articles in the hope that a full house at Mosaic Stadium will result in an uncontrolled outbreak and overflowing ER’s.

    1. “I firmly believe that life will return to normal shortly.”

      It will return to “normal” when they have assured themselves that losing an election is impossible regardless of public opinion.

    2. “I firmly believe that life will return to normal shortly.”
      What is this normal you speak of?
      Where the parasites lie,cheat and murder us and we nod and pay up?
      That normal?
      I was kinda hoping that the average taxpayer,after being forced into jail in their own homes and subject to such wisdom as …
      “We are all in this together”
      “None of those restrictions apply to any level of government”
      “We must prevent you catching the dread Covid,even if it means arresting you in a highly public take down and cancelling all rights,freedoms and rule of law..”
      “Get your Government Goo,then your “freedoms” we will return to you”..
      Might just be a little cranky.
      Such help must not go unrewarded.

  7. This is why you must get rid of the control group. No control group, no error detected, no blame.

  9. OK, I read it.

    “>90% less likely to get infected — true”

    *IF* you are infected, your death probability is about the same, vaccinated or not, with a wider uncertainty based on the small numbers of deaths in the vaccinated.

    So starting from square one, a person currently unvaccinated has a choice. If he is >90% less likely to be infected, and *IF* infected, he has the same death risk, then he is 90% less likely to die of COVID if he gets vaccinated, since as “Dr RolerGator” points out, the case is downstream from the >90% protection from infection the vaccinated have already pocketed.

    Dr “RollerGator” uses the same kind of slight of hand that he decries in Eric Topol.

    Feel free to correct me if I am wrong. I find Dr RollerGator’s style a little off-putting, so I might have missed something.

    1. I also find his style a bit off putting ( also, his ridiculous name) but I am not sure he is wrong.

  11. If they really know that the vaccines are ineffectual then why are they so anxious to achieve near universal levels of vaccination? It won’t accomplish all that much, just like the mask mandates.

    I go back and forth between two possible answers — (a) general stupidity and a failure to realize facts in plain sight, or (b) a sinister motive in the background having to do with later adverse outcomes that will really reduce the population in a much stronger way.

    Now who could that possibly serve? I would argue that it serves nobody, even the extremists of population culling — once a mass casualty situation develops, life is going to become very uncertain and unmanageable for everybody. Elites might have some protection from the die-off but would they want to be alive in a world without people to service their lifestyles? They would be trapped in their mansions and only able to survive on what they had at hand. Even if they stocked in plenty knowing that trouble was looming, why would you want to change your life in that way?

    So I think this is mostly just an outbreak of mass stupidity on an epic scale. A weak to moderate threat was raised to an extreme, then the measures that clearly weren’t very effective under any analysis were doubled down, quadrupled and so on. We are blindly following fools and idiots to a social breakdown that can only end with civil war in most developed nations. At some point, people won’t take the massive restrictions any longer. Once they try to cross the “sorry vaccines were not working” bridge, people are going to start saying “you know what, those right wing kooks were on to something all along” and opinion will swing towards rejection of government advice about COVID in general. Some will try to save face and back down in stages, Jason Kenney style. Others will dig in their heels (how dare you peasants challenge your elitist masters?) … in those cases, there will be big trouble.

    I suppose maybe that’s a good thing, big trouble for globalists is something I have often wanted to witness (and seldom have I been satisfied).

    And it may open pandora’s box and start a widespread rethinking of all other dubious and questionable globalist sacred cow issues.

    I am certain that Bill Gates will find a way to make more money out of whatever happens, but the enraged citizens might not let him enjoy that for very long.

    2. The mass casualty event will be something like dementia/spongiform encephalopathy caused by mRNA generating folded proteins – prions, and will take 2-3 yrs to materialize because prions themselves replicate slowly once in the body.

      At that time you’ll see it blamed on a food supply issue – mad cow/mad pig, etc and there will be a mass slaughter of livestock worldwide just as the climate zealots want. The vaccine won’t get a mention from media, of course.

      We’ve also seen the massive push for easy assisted dying legislation and to have it apply to mentally incapable people ie: those with dementia/mad cow. So the state will be culling them in the name of mercy due to the horrid mysterious food supply contamination facade. This is also why there is a push for 100% vaccination – the control group must be eliminated because it would be evidence that the vax is the cause, not the food supply.

      I think the elites them’s/us’es have been divided already by saline vs vaccine / control group placebo / mRNA so they are safe. The rest of us are playthings. The only way to not play is to not get vaccinated.

      1. I never thought of that angle, but in falls in line with the ” change you diet ,too many people, climate change ” line off thinking, where it takes the benevolent government to make your decisions for you.

      2. Yes. It’s what’s ahead that worries me. How will we even know if an issue is caused by the vaccine everyone is vaccinated? Personally, I don’t think it is wise to tamper with the natural immune system. And the vaccines are not just a one/two . It’s boosters, over and over again, year after year. It’s crazy. Your defense against illness is your natural immunity.

  12. I find it hilarious that the writer talks about acceptable catastrophic error, but then makes one that completely nullifies his entire article.

  13. First, the use of small sample sizes. This is common among anti vaxxers. Second is the focus on either new cases, or chances of dying if you do get infected. The only REAL Statistics that matter are:

    – vaccinated vs. unvaccinated overall chances of hospitalization
    – vaccinated vs. unvaccinated overall chances of death

    Vaccinated vs. unvaccinated chances of new infection is a very distant third. There has been 1200 breakthrough deaths in the USA since Feb 1. A huge number. But only a fraction of the 120,000 deaths since Feb 1. But even that statistic is flawed. The earlier you go, the smaller share of people being vaccinated decreases. Eventually the sample size becomes so small that its hard to accurately measure effectiveness. Also it is hard to put vaccinated people in the hospital if nobody is vaccinated. The opposite is also true.

    But this brings me to the point on Israel. Early on it was spreading almost exclusively among vaccinated people. But that is merely because Delta was never exposed to the unvaccinated. Now it has, and the unvaccinated numbers are taking off like a rocket. So no Israel is not a good example for much of anything.

    The best way to measure vaccine effectiveness is to take a countries vaccinated and unvaccinated adult population, or maybe a larger US state. Then measure the person days in the past week, for hospitalization and Covid deaths. Going longer than a week introduces other variables, such as improving treatments. Let’s say right now Canada has 75% of adults (over 18 not over 12) fully vaccinated. If the share of vaccinated Covid19 patients in hospital or dying is less than 75%, the vaccine has a positive effect.

    However even if you broke it down into age groups, a number at 75% or even slightly above would still prove vaccine effectiveness. This is because the vaccinated as a whole have a higher risk profile. Those susceptible to Covid are more likely to be vaccinated against it. This is a bias against vaccination that needs to be considered, but is almost impossible to adjust for.

    1. “This is common among anti vaxxers.”

      Is it possible for someone to have negative credibility? You’re starting from zero and going backwards.
      People who use the pejorative term “anti-vaxxer” when referring to those who have serious reservations with respect to these Covid shots (and ONLY the Covid shots) have no credibility. You certainly have no bearing whatsoever on my decision. So who are you really trying to convince? Yourself? Or is it just a pathetic attempt at virtue signaling? Why do you even bother posting here in the first place? Is it to try to somehow reinforce your own delusions of superiority? The only person you’re impressing is yourself.

    2. But that is merely because Delta was never exposed to the unvaccinated. Now it has, and the unvaccinated numbers are taking off like a rocket.

      What a weird little fantasy world you’ve created for yourself.

    3. The guy who wrote this is not an ant-vaxxer. And it’s true that you tip your hand when using the label.

  14. Two main things I picked up.

    One, the amount of shenanigan’s going on with the numbers is way bigger than I thought.

    And two the final numbers they’re using are so small that they’re statistically insignificant. You can’t really draw any conclusions one way or the other from them.

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