14 Replies to “Comparing Covid-19 Trajectories”

  1. Interesting. If you lower the threshold level to 50 cases, the US curve diverges strongly from the others. At the 100 cases threshold, they’re in the middle of the pack.

    I only used the default countries and it keeps logging me out, so I didn’t find any other outliers.

    1. And not a word about Chloroquine to be found via any of our CANADIAN MEDIA WHORES. All the while Airports are wide open with ZERO screening – Infected sub Saharan Islamic FILTH crosses at Roxham Rd. helped by the Royal Canadian Migrant Porter Service….Fk me gently, even Monty Python could never have come up with this insanity.

      Some may even wonder why that is….hmm?

      You are seeing Agenda 2030 in action folks…in yer FACE. Why are we all sequestered hmmm…?? This virus was the perfect excuse. We should be in the Fucking Streets by the Millions..!! But we wont ’cause Canadians have lost whatever backbone they ever had. It only took two generations of Leftist Social Engineering to accomplish. We can thank the marxists among us for that:

      Public Service Unions – a rabidly Leftist Media – a Political Establishment that is 100% on the Left side of the equation.

      This country is TOAST…. And it Fucking disgusts me beyond belief.

  3. It is striking to compare South Korea with other countries. They have this under control. They test, trace contacts for all who test positive, and focus on getting those people isolated. It is a very targeted approach compared to the scattershot, isolate everyone approach used in the panic stricken western countries.

    If you go to the drop-down list and add Japan and Singapore, those plots to show that those countries have the virus under control. They all use the same approach to control it, and it is working despite the fact that all three countries have much more contact with China then any western country does.

    These countries had to deal with SARS in 2003 and some suffered significant deaths from it. They learned from that experience how to handle this epidemic.

    1. They test, trace contacts for all who test positive, and focus on getting those people isolated. It is a very targeted approach

      Sadly … I am not hearing ANY detail about America’s infected patients. None. Washington State has a massive flare-up in the elder homes … and NOTHING is said about the vector of the illness. In fact, it was being implied that it came from the families of the elders (I doubt it). Why? Well … for the same reason no news station will reveal the “race” of criminals on the lam. We are literally “politically-correcting” ourselves to DEATH.

      YES. We should be tracing all contacts as we would with anyone (say … Hunter Biden, for instance) who is diagnosed with an STD.

    1. From the link

      The general ignorance of journalists when it comes to reporting scientific research is making the response worse.

      We could save a few words here: the general ignorance of journalists when it comes to reporting anything is a permanent pain. This the Gell-Mann amnesia in action. Does anybody know why Crichton named it after Murray Gell-Mann?

      1. Virtually all of us are ignorant about underlying factors driving this pandemic. Most of us don’t have the platform to spread our ignorance or the immodesty to imagine that we have all the facts. Unfortunately, many journos seem to have both.

        For most of us, we need to rely on the specialists and hope that the voices of people like the Stanford epidemiologist get heard in their counsels.

      2. Michael Crichton was friends with Gell-Mann, and I think G.M. described the effect to M.C., who was too gracious to claim the idea as his own.

  5. If the present growth rate continues Canada would have 15 thousand cases by the end of the month.
    It probably won’t; there’s a typical pattern to these things. It depends on where we are on the curve.

  6. Not to make light of this epidemic, but some perspective might be helpful.
    Worst case so far and by far: Italy
    Since the outbreak began 7 weeks ago about 3400 deaths from the virus have been reported.
    That’s about 70 deaths per day. However, normally on average about 1750 people die every day (640,000 per year) in Italy from all causes. In the 2016/17 winter flu season there were about 25000 excess deaths from influenza. That’s over 7 times the coronavirus toll thus far.

    However, let’s look at neighbouring Germany.
    So far in Germany about 52 people have died over the same time period.
    That’s about 1 death per day. Normally in Germany about 2500 die per day from all causes. We didn’t panic about the 940,000 Germans who died last year, so maybe we should stay calm now.

    Other major European countries, Spain, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc. as well as the USA are somewhere in between.

    How about Canada? Since the first case was reported here 12 people have died. It has spread a little more slowly here than Europe but time elapsed since the first reported case is about the same. That’s .25 deaths per day. About 785 people die in Canada every single day. How much alarm does that cause?

    Even one death is a tragedy to the family left behind, but how much panic, alarm or grief should the death of one complete stranger cause us? Not much. Grieving over each of the 55 million who die worldwide every year would quickly drive us crazy. .

    Again, not to minimize the danger of this pandemic. We should take it seriously and take all reasonable precautions that have been recommended. However, thanks in part to measures being taken around the world, it doesn’t seem to be as dangerous a plague as the media are hyping it to be. You know whose deaths should really concern us? Our own and those of our loved ones, especially if we and they haven’t given our lives to God, and have no idea what will happen to us when we die.

  7. Um, yeah; if resident troll dizzy recommends/references it, it is guaranteed to be a waste of time.

    I’ve already seen/heard all the Schutzstaffel Justice Warrior platitudes. Repetition is redundant.

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