How Change Happens. Your Saturday morning essay.
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6 Replies to ““Bang! there goes the sandpile.””
Essentially, complexity theory explains that matter is organized within multiple levels, from the atomic to the cellular to the conceptual.
This organization is both structural, ie, organized into a discrete long term monolithic structure, such as the organization of a mouse, and also, networked with the rest of the world via ‘informational connections’ with external atomic, cellular and conceptual realms. Matter is subject to input and output of data on many levels, but this data functions according to the normative rules with that organized structure. So, a mouse lives, interacts with the world and reproduces like a mouse and not like a bee. That is, matter exists in a non-random organization.
Complexity rests on the notion of a ‘self-organized criticality’ (Per Bak is one author)where that singular self-organized structure (eg, that mouse, or that bureaucratic office, or that health care system) can only deal with X amount of input and output. If the input data can’t be rejected by the system as noise or whatever, or the output demands are larger than the system can produce, the system’s organizational capacity reaches a critical threshold where, just like a sandpile where you have added just a wee bit of extra sand, the whole thing will suddenly collapse in an avalanche into chaos.
There might be any number of small avalanches as the system reaches a stress point, but if too many are around, then the entire infrstructure collapses. What is important is that it’s the infrastructure that collapses not just the surface operations. What then evolves might be a very different organization of matter.
Effectively, one has to ask, with regard to complexity theory: So what?
Well, ‘what’ it suggests is that change and ‘evolution’ of forms of physical and biological matter doesn’t occur gradually, either within a scenario of random mutations which might or might not work, or designed by some External Mind, but, within a much more complex and non-linear scenario than the two above methods.
Complexity theory suggests that change occcurs via ‘punctuated equilibrium’ phases, which consist of long periods of stasis and short periods of collapse when released energy enables innovative self-organized morphologies or new forms of matter emerge.
These new morphologies are already networked with existing forms; it wouldn’t make sense for a new species to emerge that was unable to live in that niche!
It also suggests that there is no endpoint, no final utopian perfection, and I’m sure many on the left reject such a notion.
Does anyone know if John Mauldin is related to the Bill Mauldin who covered WW II as cartoonist and put together the “Up Front” cartoon book?
the important thing is the whole article is how instability unfolds in a crushing avalanche when everything is tied together and so many are themselves unstable. Sounds like the world financial market right now to me.
Makes a whole theory out of ‘the straw that broke the camel’s back’.
Regardless, there will be no big crash. Even though there should be. Eventually even the most hardheaded will come to realize it’s all controlled. By then it will be too late…
I have given up trying to explain the roundness of the globe to flat-earthers. Gravity will have its way; my efforts are now concentrated upon my parachute, in the wake of the inevitable fall.
Essentially, complexity theory explains that matter is organized within multiple levels, from the atomic to the cellular to the conceptual.
This organization is both structural, ie, organized into a discrete long term monolithic structure, such as the organization of a mouse, and also, networked with the rest of the world via ‘informational connections’ with external atomic, cellular and conceptual realms. Matter is subject to input and output of data on many levels, but this data functions according to the normative rules with that organized structure. So, a mouse lives, interacts with the world and reproduces like a mouse and not like a bee. That is, matter exists in a non-random organization.
Complexity rests on the notion of a ‘self-organized criticality’ (Per Bak is one author)where that singular self-organized structure (eg, that mouse, or that bureaucratic office, or that health care system) can only deal with X amount of input and output. If the input data can’t be rejected by the system as noise or whatever, or the output demands are larger than the system can produce, the system’s organizational capacity reaches a critical threshold where, just like a sandpile where you have added just a wee bit of extra sand, the whole thing will suddenly collapse in an avalanche into chaos.
There might be any number of small avalanches as the system reaches a stress point, but if too many are around, then the entire infrstructure collapses. What is important is that it’s the infrastructure that collapses not just the surface operations. What then evolves might be a very different organization of matter.
Effectively, one has to ask, with regard to complexity theory: So what?
Well, ‘what’ it suggests is that change and ‘evolution’ of forms of physical and biological matter doesn’t occur gradually, either within a scenario of random mutations which might or might not work, or designed by some External Mind, but, within a much more complex and non-linear scenario than the two above methods.
Complexity theory suggests that change occcurs via ‘punctuated equilibrium’ phases, which consist of long periods of stasis and short periods of collapse when released energy enables innovative self-organized morphologies or new forms of matter emerge.
These new morphologies are already networked with existing forms; it wouldn’t make sense for a new species to emerge that was unable to live in that niche!
It also suggests that there is no endpoint, no final utopian perfection, and I’m sure many on the left reject such a notion.
Does anyone know if John Mauldin is related to the Bill Mauldin who covered WW II as cartoonist and put together the “Up Front” cartoon book?
the important thing is the whole article is how instability unfolds in a crushing avalanche when everything is tied together and so many are themselves unstable. Sounds like the world financial market right now to me.
Makes a whole theory out of ‘the straw that broke the camel’s back’.
Regardless, there will be no big crash. Even though there should be. Eventually even the most hardheaded will come to realize it’s all controlled. By then it will be too late…
I have given up trying to explain the roundness of the globe to flat-earthers. Gravity will have its way; my efforts are now concentrated upon my parachute, in the wake of the inevitable fall.