Duff was referring to this early election poll on John Gormley Live this morning.
(I couldn’t find an English version of the actual poll, so excuse the separtiste commentary of the link)
Conservative Party – 44%
Liberal Party – 31%
New Democratic Party – 15%
Segma is going one more than the other polling houses, calculating their own seat projection. With these numbers, Segma projects the following seat results, with the Conservatives in a majority government:
Conservative Party – 183 seats
Liberal Party – 62 seats
Bloc Québécois – 46 seats
New Democratic Party – 16 seats
Independents – 1 seat
UPDATE: “At the official outbreak of hostilities…” Automatically translated page here.
A pretty funny poll and a very funny commentary. Thanks for getting the week off to a hilarious start.
Can someone,anyone explain to Dion what the name of his website is?
2 days in a row he has sent people to greenshift.ca, who happen to be suing Dion. They have a banner saying their name has been hijacked. Is this like a unique form of Parisian masochism? Should we have a pool how many days out of 36 that Dion will send people to the wrong site?
Dion’s conference was all about how Harper is a liar.
If Dion, just yesterday, said his campaign was not going to be negative, and he starts off calling Harper a liar, doesn’t this make him a…er……..a..liar?
I’m calling 188 seats for the Conservatives. I’m being conservative saying that.
I’m also factoring in the very best efforts of Canada’s dismal, dishonest media to shaft Canadians for their very own selfish comfy fur reasons.
I like the look of the Segma lineup. It looks about right to me!
With the rise of the Green party, and with Dion moving the Liberals to the left, there is a real possibility of vote splitting among progressives. This would reduce the percentage of popular vote needed by the conservatives to gain a majority.
When the tories and reforms split the vote, they had the good sense and political will to merge. They were rewarded with government.
If the tories get a majority, will there be a merge on the left, or will partisan bickering mean the left remains fragmented and impotent?
First day of the campaign, talk about peaking to soon! – The lame stream media will rampage about not giving Harper a majority. They’ll work this argument to death…
Polls are interesting and entertaining. But there’s only one that counts. Let’s hope, but at the same time work as though we’re five points behind. Anything can change in six weeks.
I’m skeptical.
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to that poll. Seems too much of a blip. Never heard of that polling firm before, besides.
Why, by the way, would a separatist be afraid of a Conservative majority? Would a Conservative majority somehow make separation virtually impossible?
Heh. Separatists know that a Conservative majority is bad for separatists. Good for Quebec as a “nation” within the “nation” of Canada, though!
Separatists prefer a Liberal majority. Because a Liberal majority or even a Liberal minority always seems to breathe new life into the separatist movement, whereas it appears to be the opposite with a Conservative government.
I mean, hey, the Conservatives united the country with just a minority. Imagine how good they’ll do with a majority.
Take nothing for granted. It would be nice to think that the voters have some sense.
BTW, Greek, I note that the percentages you posted above are for Ontario, not national ones. Nationally, it’s 43-25 for the Tories!
Time for the predictable abortion questions!!! There’ll be Liberal candidates hiding out in shrubs and trees everywhere awaiting the prime moment to ambush the PM. Let the fun and games begin!
Not a chance. My guess is we will see a Parliament that is pretty similar to the one we have now. The Liberal brand is too powerful to be decimated like that. Best case scenario, the Tories grab another 8-10 seats in Quebec and add a couple in Ontario. They are going to lose most of their seats in Atlantic Canada as well as Emerson’s seat in BC. They might also lose a couple Saskatchewan seats to the NDP, since Dion has screwed the Liberals royally in that province and so a few seats the Tories won by vote-splitting could go to the Dippers.
The Libs, NDP and Greens are all trying to ride the left’s new hero Obama’s empty rhetoric to victory, while chasing the same demographic.
I hope they knock themselves out.
Meanwhile this morning Dion has turned himself into an attack puppy,presumably because no one in the Libs wants to step up to defend the incomprehensible Green Shift ,not even his point man/commincations guru Garth Turner who yesterday had this quote on his blog:
” You have not even seen our plan yet. Patience. All will be revealed. — Garth”
I hope the voting public see Mad Puppy Dion every day,everyone needs a good daily laugh.
It is far too early for this poll to be in any meaningful. There’s always the group of people that *might* vote Conservative but are (wrongfully, imho) afraid of a majority so the hedge their bets until later. This time around though I think the numbers may fluctuate as usual but in the end may not be too far off once Dion gets slaughtered in the debates and people see just what an inept incomprehensible tool he is.
Time for the predictable abortion questions!!!
And right on cue, the rat face one is all over that today … like a mangy dog with an old buried bone…sigh.
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=2832f9c8-065d-4a45-9716-183fb625ce0d
snip:Prime Minister Stephen Harper is a right-wing ideologue inspired by George W. Bush and his Quebec MPs can’t be trusted to speak up for the interests of Quebecers, Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe charged yesterday.
“Like Mr. Bush’s Republicans, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives lobby for the free distribution of firearms, for censorship, and they would like to withdraw the acquired rights of women (on abortion). … It is that ideology that Stephen Harper would like to impose without reserve on Canada and on Quebec in obtaining a majority.”
What a complete wanker.
I predict the BLOC will lose many seats this go round.
Free distribution of firearms? Where do I join the lineup?
But seriously, what planet is this guy from?
makes perfect sense – why do you think that Harper called an election?
“Like Mr. Bush’s Republicans, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives lobby for the free distribution of firearms, for censorship, and they would like to withdraw the acquired rights of women (on abortion). … It is that ideology that Stephen Harper would like to impose without reserve on Canada and on Quebec in obtaining a majority.”
What a complete wanker.
I predict the BLOC will lose many seats this go round.
Posted by: ldd at September 8, 2008 12:31 PM
It’s been said many times the Bloc is vulnerable, but what’s your complaint about the reference to abortion rights? Wouldn’t it be fair to say that the majority of Tory party MPs, and rank and file members, are ardently pro-life, and would like to place legal restrictions on access to abortions and certainly to eliminate public funding of abortions?
Dion…cutting back on cow farts for the environment!read DMB latest column for a good chuckle.
“Wouldn’t it be fair to say that the majority of Tory party MPs, and rank and file members, are ardently pro-life, and would like to place legal restrictions on access to abortions and certainly to eliminate public funding of abortions?”
No. A small minority are. That is why Harper has worked for the last decade to take it off the table. It’s also why the liberals and their media team (as in the MSM) have worked so tirelessly to keep it going.
Problem is, voters are 18 and up and no longer believe in the boogeyman hiding under the bed.
David
Didn’t see that one in the Conservative platform.
Conservative minority: not the same thing.
This election is going to break the Liberals financially. A minority Conservative government will be able to act as a majority government because the Liberals will not be able to afford to bring down the government. They will also pay a large political price for taking Canadians back to the polls again; therefore, S.Harper can not be any clearer when he says he is looking for a mandate to govern from the Canadian people.
That being said, I think Canadians are beginning to realize this and may give the Conservatives the majority they are looking for.
Ironically a Conservative majority may be the only thing that can save the Liberal party from itself.
If memory serves M. Duceppe was a member of the Communist party not that long ago. I’d like to see the BQ crash and burn along with their brethren in the LPC. Jack and Lizzie for co-opposition leaders!
Aren’t Duceppe and Dion both “former marxists”? Isn’t that a bit like calling yourself a “former short guy” or a “former amputee”? I mean, does that stuff really go away?
Occam,
Horowitz or why I’d say the answer is yes.
@ David 12:41 p.m.
..generalize much there?
Just a thought.
I hope the Conservatives throw into their platform a committment to end the $1.75/vote/year allowance that the parties get. I would love to hear all of the other parties argue as to why that would be a bad idea.
🙂
Until Ontarians (more specifically, Torontonians) realize that the state cannot make them rich, there’s some doubt about the numbers.
There’s only one answer for those who tell you ‘all policians are the same.’
Just say, ‘In that case, vote for the party that promises to spend the least amount of your money.’
I’ve come to the conclusion a long time ago that I only trust one person with my money … and that’s me.
Any wacky schemes like the Green Shift and the marxist liberation theology base of the NDP, I’d be suspicious of.
Still, the NDP has a good chance of becoming the official opposition which would not be too bad a development IMHO.
David: “Wouldn’t it be fair to say that the majority of Tory party MPs, and rank and file members, are ardently pro-life…”
No, David, it wouldn’t be fair to say. If “the majority of Tory party MPs” are “ardently” pro-life, that’s news to me. I am ardently pro-life–to the point of taking single pregnant women into my home to support them during their pregnancies–and I don’t recall any talk, either pro-life or pro-abortion, in the CPC. I don’t recall any time that PMSH has spoken about the abortion issue except to say that he wasn’t going to open up a debate about it.
So much constructing of straw wo/men in order to tear them down on the part of people like you and other leftie moonbats. You know when a party/side is out of ideas because they lob lies around like there’s no tomorrow.
I’m just hoping that enough Canadians have their BS antennae up, because there’s a lot that being lobbed around too.
Newsflash to Gilles Duceppe, GWB is not running for office any more, he is retiring by completing two terms in office. John McCain is making a run for POTUS currently.
GWB is not running for election in Canada, nor does he have dual citizenship!
Moreover, the Tories have scuttled Bill C-484 as if someone threw a fresh placenta into shark infested waters. So if the Tories were angling for the “pro-life” vote one would have to be surprised at the mixed messaging. Ken Epp where are you? If that wasn’t a patently baited deck clearing event after Stephan Dion’s ‘where do you stand on abortion?’ question, one would have to be deaf, dumb and blind.
As for the ‘free distribution of arms’ we already have that, it is known as gangland violence of a reported 900 groups across Canada. I await Conservative MPs to handout firearms and ammunition so we can target practice, as gangland violence grips the uber-metropolitan areas of Canada for control of the illicit drug trade.
As I recall the Hell’s Angel’s and the Rock Machine were having quite a shoot ’em up some time ago in Quebec.
Cheers
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
Frankenstein Battalion
2nd Squadron: Ulanen-(Lancers) Regiment Großherzog Friedrich von Baden(Rheinisches) Nr.7(Saarbrucken)
Knecht Rupprecht Division
Hans Corps
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Stephen Harper is a mental discipline colossus and the last conservative in the world to take anything for granted.
His supporters are well advised to do the same.
The MSM concern me much more than the Liberals (Harper has to fight both). They are strangely silent at this hour, perhaps tuckered out after almost a week of fabricating and repeating smears against Sarah Palin. Or perhaps not.
Focus, focus, focus.
David. If this is that, then that leads to … something unrelated. Please provide evidence to support your statement “(w)ouldn’t it be fair to say that the majority of Tory party MPs, and rank and file members, are ardently pro-life, and would like to place legal restrictions on access to abortions and certainly to eliminate public funding of abortions?” IOW name names.
How many times do you, and other Liberals, have to be told – CPC will not open abortion debate, period. Check out PMBs on abortion – they were overwhelmingly brought up by LIBERALS.
David, move on to actual campaign/party issues and platforms, will you. There’s lots of stuff, in their actual platforms, to comment on.
An aside, I hear the opposition parties are objecting to Harper’s touchy feely, I’m a family man, fuzzy vest ads. I paraphrase it as such – “how dare Mr Harper show who he really is, rather than the caricature of him we have created.”
Quite pitiful really. I stand by my prediction that a number of things must align for Harper to secure majority (Layton wakes up and realizes he needs/can take vote from Liberals, not Tories; Lizzy May throws support behind Grits; Dion’s hearing problem is seen as a listening problem, etc).
I see no way, period, he can win 180+ seats. More likely a larger minority, or possibly a slim majority.
I’m conflicted. I want Mr. Harper to win a majority but I desperately want Stephane Dion to remain leader of the Liberal party!.
A lead in all polls.
Stephen Harper you magnificent bast ard.
David,
I’ll have to agree with the others. There are fiscal conservatives who vote for the CPC as well as social conservatives. As soon as people like you see this you will stop torpedoing our chances of getting a majority.
Sincerely,
Shamrock,
I’m not a Layton shill but I wonder if his strategy is to act like the opposition in waiting by focusing his fire on the Tories.
Criticizing the government is a better way to get MSM attention than bashing Professor Dion.
If the MSM microphones are in Layton’s face everyday he starts to look like the real opposition leader and the Liberals start to look like a goofy third party led by an incompetent. This erodes the temptation felt by NDP voters to flee to the Liberals to stop Harper.
I’m so sick of the left bias in the media. Why is this allowed to continue? Isn’t news supposed to be fact and opinions for columns and editorials? Or am I just naive, and theres nothing that can be done.
David,
I’ll have to agree with the others. There are fiscal conservatives who vote for the CPC as well as social conservatives.
Posted by: Jon at September 8, 2008 1:49 PM
Okay, … so according to just about every reply here, my assumption is totally wrong!!! Pro-lifers are NOT a majority in the Tory Party, either the rank and file or its parliamentary delegation. Fine. I stand corrected.
So, … by deduction, … I guess the official policy position of the Tory Party is that it’s pro-choice, in that it doesn’t seek to place any legislative restrictions on access to abortions, or to the public funding of that procedure, be it in hospitals or clinics. Is that right?
I think Steven Harper and conservative party will win a majority, “if they stick to the issues that are effecting Canadians in Canada”.
If they get off on the MSM agenda, they will win but with a minority government. It will put the Liberals in debt and make it harder for them to pay the debts racked up.
They will have to have a leadership review. I do believe that Bob Rea will win the leadership
position. Then it is a whole new ballgame.
Ezra watch, day umpteen.
Still no CPC candidate announced for Medicine Hat.
I believe that the CPC has not outlined a position re pro/anti life. PMSH says it’s not on the program, so why not leave it at that. Not the number one concern of voters, one would hope.
I shudder to think of Bob Rae as PM. I suspect the voters in Ontario have long enough memories to deny the Liberals any seats with him as leader.
ok yeah … so by deduction… we paint all with a broad brush..yeah, yeah that’s the ticket…
*Sigh*
This is what you get when you’re stuck on stupid.
It’s only a fools ‘official’ position these days.
Psst, David. We have the choice between the “wallet lightening party”, the “big brother lurking around in and around your bedroom, business, computer, etc.” party or any number of smaller parties (referred to as “extremist nutjobs.”) People have become quite good at being in denial about this simple fact in order to rationalize voting for anyone who has a chance at forming the government.
I’m from Ont.; from what I have seen one should never underestimate the gullibility of most Ontarians
Rich:
So, Ontarians believe somebody else is better qualified to make their spending decisions for them?
If, as some are predicting, this election will be about the economy, that would seem to be the No. 1 question Ontarians have to answer.
Especially when they say ‘politicians, they’re all the same.’
Bart F. I agree that is Layton’s strategy. I’m simply saying it’s flawed. By representing himself as alternative to Harper as PM, he is setting himself up as Opposition alternative to Dion.
Unfortunately, by trying to raise doubts about Harper’s fitness as PM, people who change their vote from Conservative, will go Liberal not NDP.
There are very few (insignificant)Tory voters who would change over to NDP.
As for Liberals voters now, they already don’t like/mistrust Harper’s leadership, so his message won’t have resonance with them.
Dion must tell Canadians he is applying for job as opposition leader, rather than PM. This is tough, because it sounds kind of defeatist.
Mr Layton, while criticizing Harper (this is expected, he is the incumbent PM), should present his credentials to left of centre voters as a true environmentalist. He must contrast his program with Dion’s, which he can say is simply a tax grab under the guise of environmental policy.
He must argue Dion’s policy contains no provisions or plans to reduce emissions and/or spur the development of alternative fuel technologies, which is the only way we can realistically reduce emissions and pollution. Harper is doing that right now, so he will be beneficiary of Grit votes.
Layton needs to go after that constituency, lest the Liberals reverse engineer his approach into vote for themselves, for reasons described above.
While arguing that he should be PM, he must create a subtle undercurrent of his party’s fitness as true opposition, rather than abstaining 43 times.
This flaw in his strategy is already being discussed (Norman Spector this morning on Bill Good for instance), so look for Mr Layton to fine-tune his approach.
I wish him well; IMO the NDP are far better positioned to be effective opposition, rather than opposition for sake of power approach of Grits.
David. “So, … by deduction, … I guess the official policy position of the Tory Party is that it’s pro-choice, in that it doesn’t seek to place any legislative restrictions on access to abortions, or to the public funding of that procedure, be it in hospitals or clinics. Is that right?”
What is it you don’t understand? Regardless of view of rank and file, party position is debate on abortion will not be reopened. Period. Just because some people have this or that view within a party doesn’t make it policy.
Or is the Green party a 9/11 denial party? Are the Liberals an anti-US party. Is the NDP an anti-Semitic party?
Spare us the noise and fallacious logic.
You know, it wouldn’t surprise me at all that one factor in Harper’s decision to call an election is the timing of the US election.
I can see PMSH siting in his office thinking to himself: US LANDSLIDE = PC LANDSLIDE.
Doug:
You can?
set you free
yup…and as evidence:- Bob Rae, David Miller, McGuinty, Bob Rae II, etc.