In Canadian politics, it seems some days that if somebody you hear about doesn’t work for somebody you know, they’re married to him.
At the pro-CWB Winnipeg Free Press, their favourite pollster (and brother-in-law of former Manitoba Liberal Leader Paul Edwards) sounds the alarm on the barley plebiscite wording;
Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research said the language the Conservatives are using for the three options on the barley vote are not only inconsistent but also far from neutral.
In particular, MacKay said he finds it strange that the second option for farmers — the vision for the CWB favoured by Strahl — is described in the first person unlike the other two.
MacKay said the wording of that option (I would like the option to market my barley to the Canadian Wheat Board or any other domestic or foreign buyer) makes it more personal and a potentially warmer option.
Because only pollsters understand that – despite immersion in decades of pro and con arguments, despite the natural human desire to act in their own self-interest – grain producers possess the attention span of chickens, rendering opinions informed through direct personal experience in investment, risk, cultivation, and marketing of their own grain uniquely vulnerable to “diabolical” intellectual subversion through what is known in the industry as the “Question Asked in the First Person.”
“Intellectual dishonesty” is also the topic for this Kevin Hursh lecture. His recent client list* includes the Canadian Wheat Board;
According to Chuck Strahl, farmers can have their cake and eat it too. The barley plebiscite is designed to make the number 2 option seem the most appealing. It states, “I would like the option to market my barley to the Canadian Wheat Board or any other domestic or foreign buyer.” Strahl obviously thinks a majority of farmers will choose this option on the ballet. He says the board will be there for farmers. Those who say this is the end of the board are fear mongering, says Strahl. What the Agriculture Minister doesn’t seem to realize is that economics rules. Whether you’re a board supporter or not, you sell your product where you think the return will be the greatest. Without elevators or port facilities, the Canadian Wheat Board will not be in a good position to offer the best return. Open markets have many advantages. Especially in barley, an open market may be a good alternative. But it’s misleading to pretend that the Wheat Board option will remain viable in that sort of marketing system. Chuck Strahl can say that the Wheat Board will be there for farmers, but why would farmers deal with the Wheat Board if it can’t provide competitive returns? A barley plebiscite is a good idea, but the results are going to be badly skewed by the intellectually dishonest approach to the questions..
“Why would farmers deal with the Wheat Board if it can’t provide competitive returns?” Indeed! It’s an argument that dovetails convincingly into the critic warnings of “demise of the wheat board in the face of stiff competition from private grain companies”.
Which brings me to this week’s Last Laugh Award, presented to Agricore United;
In the midst of the plebiscite on the CWB’s monopoly regarding barley sales,
Agricore posted prices they would pay for feed barley . . . if they could buy it from farmers.
On Thursday, Agricore’s spot feed barley price was C$233.70 ($198) a tonne, basis Vancouver, 23 percent higher than the Canadian Wheat Board’s projected pool return of C$190 a tonne, basis Vancouver.*
Naturally, the CWB fought back . . . not by raising their prices, but with a media reply.
The Board
…can’t use the excuse that it had made lower priced sales earlier in the year – there are two pooling periods for feed barley, with the B Pool running from February 1 to July 31. It can’t say that the bottom is likely to fall out of the feed market. According to the CWB’s PRO announcement from Thursday, “Global feed grain prices are expected to receive support from the U.S. corn market well into 2007, with U.S. corn ending stocks expected to be at the lowest level since 1995-96.” If that is the case, why the huge disparity between sales that can be made now, today, at this moment, and the price it says it can deliver to farmers? Why not attract grain to the B Pool to meet this demand? A cynic might say that the Board just wants to make sure that its feed price stays below its malt price. The Board does not want to admit that it hasn’t done the best job of marketing farmers barley. But we already know that; the evidence is plain as day.
The board has cultivated its image as a protector of Canadian farmers. If this is protection, being ‘sheltered’ from high prices, then count me out.
Through all of this, the CWB board of directors has managed to remain below the fray, and conduct themselves with the professional maturity of teenage girls – “Strahl orders wheat board to pay its new CEO”.
Both Truth About Marketing Choice and Designated Area focus on the CWB debate, and are worth bookmarking, as is the pro-choice Barley Vote 2007 website.