At least according to the majority of the media. Yet Forum results in the past year have shown the Liberals under Justin Trudeau go from being comfortably out front, to a three-way tie, to the current third-place position.
If these results are projected onto a 338-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would seize a minority government of 155 seats, the NDP 120 seats, the Liberals 59, Forum says.
There can be no minority Conservative gov’t. It’s a majority or a coalition, with the opps moving quickly like they did in 2008, preventing the GG from calling for another election and allowing Mulcair and deputy PM Trudeau to form gov’t.
Right on the mark! And in my humble view…….we would become Greece damn near overnight with the 2 cretins at the helm.
No Conservative minority?
A coalition would spell the end of the Liberal Party. If there is a potential Conservative minority, the Liberals should punt the Pony and get a leader who isn’t stupid and keep the Tories alive until the Libs gain strength in the polls.
If the Conservatives get the most seats and the NDP/Lib win a non-confidence vote, the PM would ask the Governor General to call a new election. It would be expected that the Governor General would follow the Prime Minister’s advice and Johnson’s term was recently extended with a situation like this in mind. It would give another kick at the can.
The cpc always polls lowest in the summer.
Mulcair won’t have bimbo eruptions – more like Vesuvius. And the amount of material in his history and his party’s policy platform that the cpc can use to warn voters against voting ndp is huge. He has peaked. And peaked far too soon.
The Pet Mini me is running behind the CPCs, maybe the DIPs who knows for sure
– I figure the debates will be the stake through pony boy’s political career – I predict the worst showing for Liberals since the Turner days. Well maybe not as bad as the Turner defeat but at least as bad as the Count Iggy defeat
It behooves me how Canadians can put the socialists with the Angry beard ahead of PM Harper.
After Alberta lost their collective minds and choose a radical political correct anti Alberta party over the fiscally responsible WRA it doesn’t seem that big a stretch that even more brain dead LIV could foisted socialism upon the country. I am definitely concerned.
The debates? At least the Liberals have Craig Oliver and Barney Fife to tell everyone that Trudeau won.
Jeez that pic sure looks like the pony is a blowup doll waiting for his boyfriend.
I thought is was just Justin getting ready to buy votes at the Gay Pride Parade
What could possibly be worse than Trudeau OR Mulcair running the show? Answer … Trudeau AND Mulcair running the show. In an attempt to out-stupid each other, these two loons will lead the country into economic Armageddon twice as fast especially if they look to May and Duceppe for input.
Of all the leaders only PMSH is capable of providing leadership and common sense and he is so far ahead of the others in these attributes that it’s simply no contest. Any result other than a Harper re-election will make the Zombie Apocalypse look like a Sunday School picnic.
Here is the comment that is going to bring Canada another conservative majority.
Its the moment Muclair petitions the far left of the liberal party to lend their vote to the NDP.
When the liberal party did it during past elections the soft NDP went along thinking they would be lucky if they held the seats that they had…second fiddle sounded a lot like you could have influence even though you didn’t win.
But the NDP currently is the official opposition and as such what used to be the soft NDP has stiffened their resolve and don’t want to play second fiddle.
The liberals of course still think the last three elections where just a fluke and that its only a matter of time till those voters come to their senses and return them to power with a majority. Because of this sense of pride, the liberals have not softened up and the more centric minded of the party would rather vote conservative than allow the NDP to dictate terms to them….the nerve.
Ah but there’s more.
Lets factor in the current leader of the LPC and how he views the world.
Leisuresuit Larry has had it drilled into him from very early on that he is the reincarnation of his father, so naturally any thought he has is not only a great idea, its the only one that matters. I firmly believe that if the polls are still going south for the liberals in the last half of the election Justin will speak openly that should there be a minority result on election night he would expect the NDP to “lend their support” to a liberal government. The NDP in turn refusing to be taken for granted respond that its the liberals that will be second fiddle.
Yes they may both dislike Harper, but they despise each other more.
Optimally this blow should occur just before the consortium(tm) opposition debates so that the audience will by that point latched on to the theme that Justin and Tommy cannot agree on anything so how could they ever keep a coalition government together for more than 60 seconds?
Lets through in the laurentian elites in the media that still haven’t adjusted to the liberals not in power. They too would sooner eat nails than carry water for an NDP government. Naturally they will be running defence for Justin, and as Mucliar is now considered a legitimate threat, any meme that undermines him, will be parroted rigorously.
After that the media starts playing up the train wreck happening between Just-not-up-to-it and Tommy the commie.
This leaves Harper to stick with the theme of a choice between an unstable coalition or a stable conservative majority government.
The media are completely led astray by the Alberta election. The NDP got in because the right vote was split. I reckon the “Conservatives” will get in because the left is split.
It’s curious – for some time now, more than a year – Angus Reid have been running a popup poll – you have probably been on the receiving end as well as I. There are two questions, one of which always is, more or less, “will Justin Trudeau be the next PM?”
The vote has consistently been about 40% yes, and 60% no.
I’m not sure what the Angus Reid organisation is up to, but the consistency of the result is not promising for Justin.
Yup. His Mother’s looks….
I would like to see what algorithm the statisticians used to determine that 32% support would give the Conservatives 155 seats, yet the same 32% support would only give the Dippers 120 seats. It IS conceivable, and even likely that 27% support would only give the Lieberals 17.5% of the seats.
I would be much more comfortable if the Conservatives actually had a lead in the polls.
“yet the same 32% support would only give the Dippers 120 seats”
They have a concentrated stupid population in Quebec.
The Conservatives should do some research on the THEME of recent commercials. Like: Has this theme been used before, why was it not successful.
That’s an ongoing phenomena with Angus Reid…I think it is just a ploy/advertisement for them. I signed up to be on their polling list. All I have had are ‘product polls’….never any heavy political questions…very annoying. But hey…I amuse myself with their silly polls.
As for the the upcoming election I am very discouraged by the many encounters with LIV’s. If there was intelligent discussion I could respect varied opinions. But the Harper-hating media and unions have had their intended results. Their minds are made up …they won’t be confused by facts….and Justin is so pretty dontcha know!
I thought I was the only one that got their asinine soap and toothpaste polls.
He would remind you ofa sucker fish just as stupid as well
“This leaves Harper to stick with the theme of a choice between an unstable coalition or a stable conservative majority government.”
Please allow me, if you would, to fix that statement for you:
“This leaves Harper to stick with the theme of a choice between an unstable coalition and a strong, stable, national, majority conservative government.”
This country is neither a social engineering experiment, nor a collective borderline personality disorder, nor a collective narcissistic personality disorder, to be perfectly blunt.
We happen to be one of only a few very successful countries in the world we currently inhabit. I very much enjoy less government, which the current administration seems to delivering in it’s own way. It could be much better, of course. Nevertheless, the alternatives, most assuredly, will be far worse (always remember, please, the Bob Rae NDP and the McGuinty/Wynne disasters in Ontario).
I, personally, will be voting accordingly, and with my conscience.
I think he was just accused that he never held a real job and in response he is demonstrating his skills as a fluffer.
That sounds like a good fix.
The dippers are going to be shocked when Quebec votes block and they go back to under 40 seats
That face he is making in the photo is like a mating call for gays. Just sayin’.
I agree, but I might quibble with, “I very much enjoy less government, which the current administration seems to delivering in it’s own way.”. If this in fact is happening it is such a snail’s pace as to be hardly detectable.
I might also debate the sentence, “This country is neither a social engineering experiment, nor a collective borderline personality disorder,…”. Think Ontario and what has happened there in the twelve or so years.
Other than that, you are right. Canada does need a strong, stable, national Conservative government. The Liberal Party have drifted so far left that it is indistinguishable from the NDP, and both of them would take on the Greek course. However, the people will ultimately get what they deserve.