Grim Stock Signals Piling Up as Wall Street Mulls Recession Odds;
Nine turbulent weeks and a correction in U.S. stocks have left analysts with a thorny question. What’s the market saying about the economy?
And while few see incontrovertible signs investors are bracing for a recession, it’s a word that’s been coming up more as they seek a signal in the chaos.
But keep reading…
While the preponderance of stalled stocks is high by historical standards, it does have a recent precedent: 2016. No recession followed that signal.
None is coming now, either, according to the people who are paid to anticipate such things. Odds the U.S. will fall into a recession in the next year stands at 15 percent, according to Bloomberg’s U.S. Recession Probability Forecast index. While they see the economy losing a bit of speed next year and in 2020, the median estimate of economists calls for 2.6 percent economic growth in the next 12 months.
Economists haven’t always done a great job predicting contractions. A 2014 study by the International Monetary Fund’s Prakash Loungani found that not one of 49 recessions suffered around the world in 2009 had been predicted by the consensus of economists a year earlier. Loungani previously reported that only two of the 60 recessions of the 1990s had been anticipated a year in advance.
Very clever of them to predict both.
Via Instapundit
I thought stocks were going lower because Wall Street was concerned about interest rate hikes, theoretically needed to slow down the economy and inflation.
no, the QE has ceased and the 87 billion a month that was flowing to the markets under Obama has ceased.
Well, I hink the tax breaks and deregulation unleashed a lot of pent up small business development which is why the stock market isn’t everything. It’s Main Street carrying the load this time, not Wall Street.
Much more likely to happen in Canada, thanks to total mismanagement of the economy by Trudope and Butts. A nice made in Canada recession, thanks to stifling regulations, taxes and higher interest rates. Just in time for the election.
Despite Juth-tins massive deficit spending, it has been a failure, of course.
OTOH, the US will fare ok. The rise in rates has had a n effect to take some steam out of the economy, but wasnt that the desired effect anyways? Just to bring it back a bit. TRUMP’s tax cuts and deregulation scheme will maintain their economic record, tariffs notwithstanding.
“thanks to total mismanagement of the economy by Trudope and Butts.”
Governments who “manage the economy” are communists.
at the very least fascists.
Heh, all that Quantitative Easing has to be paid back sometime…around and around goes the bankers Ponzi scheme. Aren’t those revolving operating loans wonderful, borrowed when $ is low and paid back at a high $ at higher interest? Tighter financing, and all…
Deu_23:19 Thou shalt not lend upon usury to thy brother; usury of money, usury of victuals, usury of any thing that is lent upon usury:
Deu 28:15 But it shall come to pass, if thou wilt not hearken unto the voice of the LORD thy God, to observe to do all his commandments and his statutes which I command thee this day; that all these curses shall come upon thee, and overtake thee:
Deuteronomy 28:43-44
(43) The stranger that is within thee shall get up above thee very high; and thou shalt come down very low.
(44) He shall lend to thee, and thou shalt not lend to him: he shall be the head, and thou shalt be the tail.
Revelation 2:9 and 3:9
Come back, Reverend Aberhart. The Dominion needs you.
Why are they predicting a recession? Easy. They plan to cause one.
Having failed to remove Trump or stop Brexit, the plan on Wall Street and in Beijing and Berlin is to send interest rates through the roof in both the US and UK, make their economies scream, and blame it all on Trump and Brexit.
It worked like a charm when W had outlived his usefulness and they wanted Sarah Palin kept out of the White House in favour of the Former Occupant. They expect it to work just as well now.
Mark Carney has made his plans clear to raise interest rates by nearly five percentage points if the British parliament tells Comrade Erika where to stick her “deal,” more than doubling unemployment and sending GDP down a good eight percent.
What absolute babies.
You may well have something there. They need to get rid of both Trump and Brexit in order to resume their march toward one globalist government control of all economies. George is not amused.
Time to put a little something under that mattress?
I’ll wait for unDork to post it’s thoughts, then I will know what will not happen:-)))
I expect him to claim that any future US and UK recession will be caused by “protectionism,” not sabotage by globalist bankers.
May be a bit of recession, no depression. Although, where it concerns the pocketbook, people squawk quite easily.
Amo 8:11 Behold, the days come, saith the Lord GOD, that I will send a famine in the land, not a famine of bread, nor a thirst for water, but of hearing the words of the LORD:
Market analysts have accurately predicted 12 of the last 5 recessions.