40 Replies to “Another take on Trump’s Venezuela oil ‘deal’”

    1. At least he has a mind of his own. You have to invite demons into your head if you want get any thinking done.

  3. Jim Warren is usually spot on and well informed – but in this case.. not.

    First: Trump et al want keystone built – they’re interested in secure supply in the short term and a land bridge to Alaska in the long term. 51st state is not a joke, it’s the inevitable long term result of leftist stupidity and anti-Americanism in central Canada and Trump et al know it. Remember: if you want to save Canada vote for Alberta independence because a strong vote to leave is the only route to fair treatment by Ottawa and so to saving the country.

    Second: Venuzuela is not a captive country or government. It is an experiment (so far looking good) in regime change in which they’re applying the lessons we should all have learned from Iraq. Take out the leader, leave the next tier in place, motivate positive change – and prevent a civil war while laying the groundwork for a long term, mutually supportive, relationship. Maybe it works, maybe it fails – but it’s the first real effort to do something not already repeatedly proven stupid in three generations.

    Third: the oil deal doesn’t deliver oil quickly, doesn’t replace Canadian exports, and doesn’t require boots on the ground. What it does do is prevent China from doing something similar and so, ultimately, gaining control of the country. Nobody is stealing anything here, all Trump’s deal does is establish a long term market the locals can rely on while they rebuild their country.

    1. Well said.

      And it is also helping the destabilization of the cartels, including the ones that run supply management here in our failed-state post-national mess.

    2. One does wonder if #TheDonald really wants to cut off his secure, pipeline-delivered Canadian oil imports and run tankers from Venezuela instead. I’m thinking no, myself.

      You look at a map, and that’s not a short trip. Lots of opportunity for people to mess with his supply lines on the open sea.

      So all the idiots claiming “oh, it’s all over for Canada!!!” haven’t glanced at a map. Or thought about the Chinese Navy and it’s ~250 ship fleet. Those ships might suck, and they might be manned by conscripts so dumb they can’t pour p1ss out of a boot with instructions on the heel, but they can still take an unarmed oil tanker.

      As usual. Idiots are going to idiot.

      This is not to say that I don’t think #TheDonald won’t hoof the #LaurentianElite in the nethers a few more times. You love to see it.

      1. So you believe the US would permit China to mess with oil tanker traffic in the Western hemisphere.
        Got it.

  4. “We have the time required to develop alternative export options, provided we start soon.” Just how much time is needed to begin to fulfill the “energy superpower” promise?
    https://www.fraserinstitute.org/commentary/federal-policies-continue-block-oil-pipelines
    Carney took office in 2025 and made a pledge to Canada.
    Carney’s pledge: “[to] make Canada the world’s leading “energy superpower,” the Carney government in the spring introduced Bill C-5, the “Building Canada Act,” to give the federal cabinet sweeping powers to circumvent existing laws and regulations for projects deemed to be in the “national interest.” In effect, cabinet and the prime minister are empowered to pick winners and losers based on vague criteria and priorities”
    “Trudeau-era changes to the regulatory system for large infrastructure projects included: Bill C-69 (the federal “Impact Assessment Act”); the West Coast tanker ban (as spelled out in federal Bill C-48); and the federal cap imposed exclusively on oil and gas emissions. These have hindered energy investment and development and impeded prosperity, not only in energy-producing provinces, but across the country.”
    “Prime Minister Carney’s recently released list of five projects—which the government deems to be in the national interest and will expedite—doesn’t include a new oil pipeline for western Canada in general or Alberta in particular. The reason given was that no private developer stepped forward to finance or build one. But the reason for that is not a mystery: Justin Trudeau’s damaging energy policies continue to drive away oil and gas investment ”
    Finally: ‘The U.S. is currently the destination for 97 per cent of our oil exports.”

    What has changed since September 2025? How has Carney maximized Canadian energy resources to make Canada an energy powerhouse? Or even started to transform Canada into an energy powerhouse?

  5. “new export pipelines to reach non-US customers”

    I don’t know all that much about the oil business, but like most people I’ve picked up at least a few bits of information about it over the years. Enough to have some questions:

    Isn’t Canadian oil really expensive to produce, having to be extracted from tar sands? Didn’t the US have to set up their refineries specifically to process the heavy crude we provide? Isn’t it a combination of high world prices/big discounts/no tanker transport costs that made our oil sales to the US viable in the first place?

    Now people are flippantly stating that Canada will just “develop new markets” on the other side of the world…just like that?

    Yeah, good luck with that.

    1. “Canada will just “develop new markets” on the other side of the world…”

      Well we might, if we refined it here and shipped finished product. A tanker full of diesel or gasoline is a lot more profitable than a tanker full of crude. But we all see how hard the government is working to make sure nobody builds a refinery here. We don’t even ship liquid natural gas. We could, but we don’t.

      Also, the thing that makes the Tar Sands crude expensive is steam extraction. If you got your steam from a nuclear generation station, it would be much cheaper. And we all see how hard they work to keep that from happening too.

      Both those things have been getting talked about since I was a little kid. 60 years of government work to keep it from happening. Why do you suppose that is?

      1. In a related story … here in CA … refineries are being fined $hundreds of millions of dollars and are leaving the State. Not that CA and Ca are anything alike …

      2. Well said, Phantom. Like you, I have watched them pander to the eco-loonies for decades at the expense of the Canadian economy.

      3. The reason hardly anyone ships Gasoline or Diesel is the shelf life of those products is measured in months or if stabilized 1 to 2 years. Crude oil has a shelf life of — well it has been in the ground for thousands of years. A year seems a long time but processing enough product to ship, transporting to coast, then transporting by tanker, then transporting that finished product to consumers all takes time as the product degrades.

    3. US refineries were set up to process sour heavy crude from Venezuela and the Gulf of Mexico. When those started to run low they built a pipeline from Canada as Alberta heavy is very close in composition.

      Canada is currently shipping Alberta oil to several countries including Japan and India. Prior to Trans Mountain, the US was pretty much the only customer as that was only pipeline Alberta had.

      1. “Canada is currently shipping Alberta oil to several countries including Japan and India.”

        Yes, Canada sells between 400,000 and 500,000 barrels a day to customers other than the United States, who buy roughly 4 million barrels per day.

  6. The author has a vested interest in new pipelines, and, we all want to see that happen.
    That said, they are misguided and being led down the garden path.
    Forever is a long time.
    Those pipelines will not be built under Carney’s watch, bet on it.
    That “agreement” was just another Photo Op/MOU that he is famous for, but obligates nobody to do anything, anytime soon. It was just propaganda and show business, which is the hallmark of this Liberal government, the Sheeple buy into their mirages, like candy to a baby.
    There are myriad reasons, for the pipe to never be built, outlined many times here on SDA, and by many others much more familiar with how this works.
    Suffice it to say, the Trump Venezuela deal is not only a strategic play on Canada’s resources, and less dependency on them, but a direct play on China, who were already their customers. SMART MOVES!
    If you had a long term trade partner, that was suddenly going tangential in its politics, and acting confrontational towards you, would you not consider a different supplier for your needs?
    In a Heartbeat.
    Lots of criticism of the Venezuela deal, that smells strongly of ENVY and COPIUM.

  7. Dear eco-sociology professor;

    Check the chart. Check the … data
    https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMUSVE1&f=M

    Forget how many Mbbls of oil Venezuela is shipping … everywhere … today… but the SHARP INCREASE (and rising) of exported oil to the USA. Please make a note of it.

    Oh! And BTW … please DO build multiple Canada pipelines heading East and West. We have a similar government transport project like that here in CA. We call it a high-speed [sic] train. And that project is coming along … coming along.

  8. “Donald Trump and Venezuela’s puppet president…”
    Okay, that was all I needed to know this is not a worthwhile read.

  9. And why wouldn’t an anti-American run in the next presidential election promising to boot out the Americans and charge the girly president with treason?.

  10. About those pipelines Brian: I’d like to pick your brain.
    How much did the TMX eventually cost the Canadian taxpayer? How much was it scheduled to cost? If there was a difference in those costs, why was there a difference and how much of a difference (if any)?
    And about the proposed Energy East pipeline, how much is it scheduled to cost? Why didn’t your government go ahead with the project? What caused the project to be cancelled?
    Now, what were the non-political/legal-political reasons for the hold up? Things like geology, geography, weather — you know, maps, one of my favorite things. (I have to hat tip my own little group of gremlins for giving me the info here; they do good work and this was a 20 minute run down over lunch break, so easy — Thanks Gremlins! Mommy loves you!)
    Now, that’s without the Venezuela deal; now you have to factor in the Venezuela deal — so…what happens then?

    1. To answer some of your questions, I think TMX came in at about 5 to 7 times it’s estimated cost. It won’t pay for itself until late 2027 or early 2028. The revamped energy East pipeline has not been costed yet, or at least I haven’t come across any “official” numbers or timelines. The reason it didn’t go ahead originally is because we had a preening cockwomble in charge who regulated it to death, along with other pipelines, in order to look good in front of a select voter base.

      The Venezuelan oil will take a while to really get going. This is a long term strategic move, not a quick win. If Canada gets its butt in gear the transition to other markets should be fairly smooth for both our countries.

      Good to hear you have gremlins. Mine are all launched.

      1. ” If Canada gets its butt in gear the transition to other markets should be fairly smooth for both our countries.”

        Fairly smooth…just far too late to save our economy.

    1. What’s the volatility of Western Canadian Standard? (I think that’s the one they use)
      What happens when there is volatility in the markets?
      Does the Venezuela deal add volatility?

      1. Then you should be THANKING Trump for cutting off the ChiCom’s CHEAP Iranian oil supply. Why aren’t you thanking him for that? Go Trump Blockade of the Straits of Hormuz!

        1. Trump didn’t block the straight, Iran did. And I’ll be damned before I thank them for that.

          You really resent that I think Trump is only human. You might want to sit with that for a while.

      2. “If they keep buying, we’ll keep shipping. Leverage.”

        Only on paper. Trump could destroy it at any time.

  12. Remember, there’s no business case for exporting LNG. LOL

    Whatever is most to Canada’s advantage will not happen under current management.

    Re Phantom’s suggestion that Canada build new refineries, it should be noted that the last one only took 8 years to build.

    Regardless of how this actually plays out, Trump’s announcement of the Venezuela deal was masterful, going into the mid-term elections.

  13. Almost all the Albertans I know are complaining about the high cost of Gasoline. I do not drive much maybe 12,000 to 20,000 km per year. With high cost of crude the Alberta government is recieving large royalties. Alberta governments budgets usually rely on over 10% royalties or go in a deficit position. I would rather pay an increase in price at the pumps rather than have to pay over 10% increase in Taxes.

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