2025 Federal Election Prediction Thread

We’ll keep it simple – 338 343 federal seats are up for grabs (I didn’t know they’d added even more) Post your predictions in the comments using this format (alphabetical order). And corrected to add the BQ, sorry about that.

BQ:
Conservatives:
Greens:
Liberals:
Independent:
NDP:

Tie Breaker: Jagmeet retains his seat, yes or no?

Please refrain from general commentary, an open thread will be posted for that purpose.

87 Replies to “2025 Federal Election Prediction Thread”

  1. Who cares?

    What we need is our gun rights back.

    Did covid not learn us?

    You can govern, but I can blow your brains out.

    It’s the only system that works.

  2. Conservatives:173
    Greens: 1
    Liberals: 140
    Independent: 0
    NDP: 8

    Jagmeet – NO

    BQ – who cares. Ne pas moi

  3. Conservatives: 150
    Greens: 1
    Liberals: 150
    Independent: 0
    NDP: 10
    Jagmeet Loses.
    Canada Loses.

    1. Bloqheads: 32
      Conservatives: 150
      Greens: 1
      Liberals: 150
      Independent: 0
      NDP: 10
      Meethead Still Loses.
      Canada Still Loses.
      Let Chaos Reign!

    1. Corrected numbers for our new even more populous democracy w 343 MP’s
      BQ 38
      Conservative 140
      Greens 0
      Liberals 155
      Independent 0
      NDP 10
      PPC
      Jagmeet and Liz May lose their seats, and resign as party leaders
      Another minority but without the NDP agreement, = another election in a year?
      A separation referendum in Alberta to follow…

  4. Conservatives: 130
    Liberals: 180
    Dippers: 10
    BQ: remainder

    Jaggie will barely hang onto his seat as his riding is in Lotusland, where they love their socialists. My own Dipper MP, “Miss Hamas” McPherson, will win yet another overwhelming majority, thereby ensuring that she qualifies for her pension.

  5. Libs/WEF/CCP : 148
    Cons : 127
    Blok : 38
    NDP/ Libs/ WEF : 15
    Independent : 1
    Green : 1
    Jagderp loses seat, celebrates like he won.
    Elizibitch May keeps her seat, celebrates by chewing down a tree.
    Lib/NDP/WEF/CCP/BLOC coalition Government.
    Canadians choose to accelerate the decline.

  6. Conservatives 140
    Greens 0
    Liberals 150
    Independent 0
    NDP 10
    BQ 38
    PPC 0
    Jagmeet and Elizabeth May lose their seats, and resign as party leaders

    Copied and pasted from marc in Calgary. I wish I could have predicted otherwise, but my gut won’t let me.

    (I’m hoping that my gut is wrong.)

    –the REAL fc.

  7. Conservatives 160
    Greens 0
    Liberals 130
    Independent 0
    NDP 10
    BQ 38
    PPC 0
    Jagmeet and Elizabeth May gone

    1. I wish! But I believe the libs will win and we, the west, run screaming out of confederation.

  8. Conservatives: 192
    Greens: 1
    Liberals:112
    Independent/PPC: 0
    NDP: 3
    Bloc: 30

    Everyone is voting angry and they’re showing up in massive numbers already. They’re voting because their mad at our current Liberal government, or they’re voting because of mean, bad, Donald Trump down South. Simply put… I just am having trouble predicting this one. Too many wild variables. I can only pray we get a Conservative majority but I’ll even settle for a Liberal one. That will ensure then Alberta and Saskatchewan say ‘adios’ to the rest of this failing country.

    1. I’m hoping that Alberta and Saskatchewan say goodbye if the Liberals win a majourity because it will be such a slap in the face but the west has taken it from behind for so long that they are use to it now and their bluff has been called so I don’t see it happening.

      1. I believe Premier Smith has made it clear that no matter who wins business as usual isn’t coming back.
        Trump doesn’t need to make Canada a 51st state to get the results he wants.
        Regardless of who wins the resources better be going to market or they go to market by path of least resistance the MTO* be damned.

        *MTO – Montreal Toronto Ottawa -specifically the Quebec legislature, Queens Park, and Parliament Hill

  9. Isn’t there 343 in new configuration? Maybe I’m crazy

    Lib too many
    Con not enough
    BQ higher than the median I.Q. of their voters
    NDP about right
    Green they exist?
    Jag gone

  10. Conservatives 131
    Greens 1
    Fascist Party of Canada 181
    Independent 0
    NDP 6
    BQ 24
    PPC 0
    Jagmeet gone
    Canada gone, A longer election would have introduced the real Carnage to Canadians but now we have 4 years to learn how badly we went wrong.

  11. As much a hope as a prediction.

    Conservatives: 165
    Greens: 0
    Liberals:140
    BQ: 30
    Independent: 0
    NDP: 3
    PPC: 0

    Carney will (eventually) FO just like the last 2 leaders they forced on us before The Retard brought ruin.
    Singh gets back in and the Commie-homo party turfs him for a Canadian commie-homo.
    May is gone and the eco-nuts are left to block bridges, disrupt shit and eat dirt.

    The frogs hold the balance of power and the Liberal scumrats try to form government with them – fun ensues.

  12. We voted at the first advance poll……no idea what the numbers will end up being, but neither my wife nor I are in the slightest bit optimistic about the final outcome.

    As the saying goes “You can lead a horse to water, but have you ever smelled a wet horse?”

  13. Bloc: 26
    Conservatives: 182
    Greens: 2
    Liberals: 142
    Independent: 1
    NDP: 11

    Tie Breaker: Jagmeet – no

  14. No hope or prediction other than the BQ will be the king-maker just as the NDP has been in the past few elections. The NDP will be wiped off the face of this earth. I don’t see the conservatives winning a majority but I expect the BQ to hold Quebec, Quebecers knowing an opportunity when they see one. This is pure BQ territory. if Quebec goes strongly Liberal I will be extremely disappointed but then I will get to listen to Alberta threatening to separate – as Calgary goes Liberal.

  15. Conservatives: 180
    Greens: 1
    Liberals:120
    BQ: 27
    Independent: 0
    NDP: 10
    PPC: 0

    Jughead is no more.

  16. I am using 343 ridings and wishful thinking
    Conservative – 173
    Greens – 0
    Liberal – 141
    Bloc – 21
    NDP – 8
    Jagmeet gets kicked to the curb.

    1. I like your numbers and optimism.
      I am actually optimistic after watching the Pollievre rallies, this past w/e especially .
      Heard a “rumour” that Nipissing-Temiskaming, my riding, is going blue. This was Rota’s riding.

  17. I think there will be narrow CPC majority. I’ve been handing out leaflets in a certain Ottawa area riding with a very popular Liberal MP, and the majority of people I encounter while doing so are voting/have already voted CPC. Also we’re winning the sign war in said riding.

    As for premonitions, mine are similar to pre-Brexit: if we lose this one the results are too horrible to contemplate… but we didn’t.

    1. I can only think of the line from one of Churchill’s parliamentary speeches when facing the consequences of losing to the Nazis. “ If we lose, we shall fall into the abyss of a new dark age more sinister, and perhaps more prolonged, by the lights of a perverted science.”

  18. Conservatives 243
    Greens 0
    Liberals 55
    Independent 0
    NDP 6
    BQ 38
    PPC 1
    Jagmeet and Elizabeth May will lose their seats, and resign as party leaders.
    Canada will be almost rid of the Libranos.

  19. No point in predicting.
    It does not matter who is in power.
    Canada will continue it’s steady downward trajectory in every category.
    Too many structural problems.

  20. Communists: 122
    Traitors: 95
    Weasels: 73
    Clowns: 35
    Aliens: 13

    Singh is hauled to the depths of hell by a demonic cohort.

  21. I’m a pessimist, I think Canada will lose this election. I.e. :
    Liberals: won
    Canada: zero.

    Liberals delenda est.

  22. Bloc 32
    Cons 182
    Greens 0
    Liberals 109
    Independant 1
    NDP 19
    Jagmeet gets reelected.
    As a Liberal.

  23. Conservatives: 166
    Greens: 2
    Liberals: 144
    Independent: 0
    NDP: 4
    Bloc: 27

    Singh – wins

  24. Communist Liberal Cult – 220
    Disgusting Traitors – 63
    Climate Communists – 1
    Union Communist Dips – 6
    Too Stupid for Words Party – 53

    The West Separates – except for Manitoba, Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary, Edmonton, Lower BC and various other free check lovers.
    More like a SA Township.
    All hat.

  25. Conservatives: 135
    Greens: 2
    Liberals: 150
    Independent: 2
    NDP: 16
    Bloc: 33

    Tie Breaker: No

  26. Bloc: 30
    Conservatives: 156
    Greens: 0
    Liberals: 144
    Independent: 0
    NDP: 13

    Carey asks GG Simon, to allow to the Liberals form government with their coalition partners,,, she agrees.

    Jagmeet gets reelected.
    May gets rejected.

  27. BQ-40
    Conservatives-153
    Greens-0
    Liberals-146
    Independent-0
    NDP-4
    Jagmeet -Loses Seat
    Elizabeth May-Loses Seat
    if Conservatives don’t win ——The WEST separates!

  28. Bloc 30
    Conservatives 166
    Greens 0
    PPC 0
    NDP 10
    Lieberals 137

    Jagmeet doesn’t win his riding.

    Partly wishful thinking on my part. I have a bad feeling about it all. If I wasn’t highly invested in this place I’d be making my exit plan either way.

  29. BQ: 70
    Conservatives: 160
    Greens: 1
    Liberals: 102
    Independent: 0
    NDP: 10

    Tie Breaker: Jagmeet turfed

    I want them to hit a majority, but thanks to the gift of tariffs, I don’t think they will.

  30. BQ: 22
    Conservatives: 128
    Greens: 1
    Liberals: 181
    Independent: 0
    NDP: 9

    Jagmeet loses his seat

  31. Sausage Fingers King – 343
    Canada – even more of a shit hole

    As long as our puppeticians swear oaths to the clown king, your vote is meaningless.

  32. BQ: 33
    Cons: 153
    Gr: 0
    Libs: 150
    Ind: 0
    NDP: 7
    Singh wins

    And this is me being optimistic…

  33. The best we can ever hope for in Canada is a Liberal Party minority government,for today and for the next hundred years, thanks to the Liberal Party government of Canada hijacking the vote in Canada and calling it a “democracy”.

  34. BQ 12
    Cons 178
    Green 1
    Liberal 140
    Ind 0
    NDP 2
    Jagmeet=No
    Praying for a return to common sense. This is a battle between common sense and a dystopian Canada.

Navigation