61 Replies to “February 13, 2025: Reader Tips”

  1. L- Victor Davis Hanson: Donald Trump’s Tariff Diplomacy Is Working
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilWD6dyHpf4
    —————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
    The legacy media get economically illiterate Canadian politicians to stand up an bark like trained seals, at a Liberal smoke and mirrors deflect attention scheme.

  5. Since some people have problems with translating from X, below is an excellent analysis of the current $hitstorm about Tump-Pootin-Ukraine
    (edited to remove Polish euphemisms)

    Trump-Putin Conversation – Chamberlain 2.0?
    https://x.com/wolski_jaros/status/1889762547966025929

    I am the last person who can be accused of sympathizing with Trump, but I have the impression that a large number of commentators are exaggerating in their assessment of the report on the conversation between Putin and Trump and what Pete Hegseth said.

    Commenting on what we know:

    1. a return to the 2014 borders of Ukraine is unrealistic.

    Seriously, is anyone surprised that the UA will not regain Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk? Really..?

    2. Ukraine’s membership in NATO is unrealistic.

    Again – is anyone surprised? Seriously? NATO with Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey would already be running to accept Ukraine. For a year now, it has been said that “EU yes, NATO no”. The Trump administration is loudly communicating what the Biden administration was saying a bit more quietly. But there is no change in optics.

    3. Lack of US military involvement in Ukraine as a guarantor of peace and sending troops absolutely outside of NATO Article 5. And officially dumping it on Europe.

    Here we have the first smaller or bigger clash. The only countries that can realistically guarantee peace in Ukraine – if peacekeeping forces were to be sent there – are those that possess nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them. The US, France and GB, USA have definitely withdrawn from the trio. Again, this is a clear articulation of what has been said for a year, but more quietly. The US does not want to send troops further east than Poland. Which is not surprising, because for two decades there have been hundreds of articles and analyses from the US showing a turn to the Pacific. We [Poland] are lucky so far that the Americans are seriously involved in our country and in Romania and see their particular interests in Europe being realized in both countries.

    And as I have written many times – I am extremely opposed to sending any components of the Polish Armed Forces in any form other than training or humanitarian to Ukraine. If a broad coalition is formed, we should be the last to participate in it. And best of all, not at all, except for humanitarian and training.

    Of course, a French and British contingent under the umbrella of these nuclear countries would make more sense and would be a guarantee of something more real for Ukraine. Even despite the lack of US involvement. Some information indicates that Macron was seriously considering this type of option.

    The best guarantor of Ukraine’s security is the strong Armed Forces of Ukraine. Not relying on external powers.

    For now, I think that the US has rejected what would have been thrown out in the negotiations anyway, and the announced involvement in the US industry and raw materials (which still need to be extracted and have the $ and resources for this – because you know that Zelensky has offered the Netherlands [lost in translation, offering Netherlands means offering what you can’t control but don’t mind if the other side bids for it] to Trump for now – right?) and proposals to vote on lend-lease for the UA indicate that the US has no intention of giving up the Ukraine issue at all.

    But the real effect of the negotiations IMHO may be completely opposite and petrify [fortify] the current – very beneficial for the UA – effect of three years of defending the country.
    For now, Kiev’s already completely wishful territorial demands/ideas have simply been brutally rejected, and someone in the Trump administration realizes that Putin should be given something that he can sell to “Russia” as a success. Up to and including forcing presidential and parliamentary elections in the UA, i.e. fulfilling the mythical “denazification”. Which in the current state of the UA society, while maintaining democratic elections, means practically completely cutting out pro-Russian parties from the mechanisms of power in the UA.

    That is, at the cost of losing territories that are irretrievable anyway (without Russia’s disintegration), a nominal change of power in Kiev, and an official halt to the path to NATO, we will have the West in full force in Ukraine and the continued integration of the UA with the West. That is, it will be a classic apparent [fake] neutralization because the state of Ukraine’s westward shift will be consolidated – although probably outside multipolar security structures.

    Of course, such a situation will most likely cause the war to flare up again in 5-10 years, but it will give the UA time to further rebuild its military potential and… it will give us peace again in the foreseeable future (I remind you that I look at this from a Poland-centric perspective, not a Ukraine-centric perspective). However, it is crucial here that no “demilitarization” of Ukraine occurs.

    And this IMHO will be the litmus test of the real US approach to Kiev.

    If it turns out that the US wants to sell a lot of weapons to the UA and no one will limit the equipment of the SZU with new equipment and the maintenance of extensive structures, including in the east of the country, this will mean one thing.

    For now, I would wait for further information on Trump’s idea for Ukraine and negotiations, but I am very far from treating what is seen as Munich 2.0

    ps. I’m leaving aside the fact that as long as the SZU receives aid and weapons from the West, Putin can do the same thing he has been doing for the last few years: grind up hundreds of thousands of his subjects annually in exchange for a territory the size of few Polish counties with no real chance of conquering Ukraine.

    1. Just before someone gets confused, above I have provided a translation from a noted Polish military and security analyst Jaroslav Wolski who also happens to be a lecturer at the Polish Naval Academy. Those are not my words, but I agree with his assessment. So far it is the one assessment that makes most sense.

    2. I can obviously only write for myself that the sooner the slaughtering stops, the better.
      What a bloody waste.

      2. It is not that simple. Ukrainians are defending their homes, their families and their way of life from a subhuman Siberian horde that invaded to deny them that. Yes it would be better had the Siberian Mongols did not invade but Ukrainians were given two choice: defend or march into gulags and have your nation wiped out. There is no parity of any kind here.

        1. No, Ukrainians ran away as the cowards they are, by the millions, to live off the welfare of other countries.
          Time for them to go home instead if peddling their racist Banderite cult here.

          1. So who is fighting in Ukraine then? Never mind don’t answer, it will be your regular stupid.

    3. Why are foreign troops needed to intervene in the Russia – Ukraine conflict? Why can’t they monitor their own border? Which NATO countries would you suggest could (and would) step up into this conflict? IMO if America agrees to keep out of Russia’s affairs, Russia will end the war. The border will be different. But the fighting will have stopped.

      1. These are not “Russia’s affairs”. Putting it in those terms makes you either an idiot or a piece of excrement, and we already know that you are both. Civilization needs less russia.

    4. If the outcome of Russia’s 2022 war is the formal recognition of Russia’s 2014 invasion, occupation and usurpation of Ukrainian territory, then it is a resounding success. Russia will have won and it will have been well worth the cost (from which it will recover quickly once sanctions are removed). With such a fine reward we can expect to see more such behaviour.

      And if Russia gets to keep its majority holdings of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and have their occupation guarded from Ukrainian resistance by European troops, then Putin should have a glittering triumph at which you and I should be forced to attend in recognition of his big-balled brilliant genius.

      2. “If the outcome of Russia’s 2022 war is the formal recognition of Russia’s 2014 invasion, occupation and usurpation of Ukrainian territory, then it is a resounding success. ”

        Okay, then it’s a resounding success.

        “Russia will have won and it will have been well worth the cost (from which it will recover quickly once sanctions are removed). With such a fine reward we can expect to see more such behaviour.”

        No no no… Russia has “already lost” and will “never recover”. Ask Jessica.

        “And if Russia gets to keep its majority holdings of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and have their occupation guarded from Ukrainian resistance by European troops,”

        That’s a given, provided that the remains of Ukraine don’t get divided up amongst their neighbours.

        ” then Putin should have a glittering triumph at which you and I should be forced to attend in recognition of his big-balled brilliant genius.”

        A triumph *handed to him* by the idiots of the West who planned and executed the 2014 coup that led to this fiasco (although the actual beginnings of it were long before that…look it up…).

      3. This was never about land, that is a russian narrative they fallen back on after failing to achieve what they wanted. That is also the narrative of various Freddies amply illustrated here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCOzqP9Dt9E

        Remember Pootin’s demands from before the invasion? Which of them came true? None. the opposite has happened. NATO expanded further. Baltic is a NATO lake. There is not even a smidgen of talk about withdrawing NATO troops from Central Europe, their presence is increased. Also Syria and thus Africa is lost.

        Then there is economy. Russian export chains are lost. The new energy deals EU has signed for many years, russia cannot simply recover their most lucrative market (and russian trade has fallen to the level of Poland) if the sanctions are lifted. New infrastructure is in place (although Germany is a weak part of that equation). US invested heavily in EU energy, does anyone expects Trump to abandon that? Seriously?

        Russian gold reserves are less than half of what they were. Their national fund is completely depleted. Strategic fund investments that russia has been gathering for decades all eaten up at the front lines. There is no capital to keep the shithole going and Western capital will be very reluctant to even consider going back, especially that russia (being the bandit whore it is) has nationalized Western investments. Their Cold War weapons stockpile practically gone (you say russia will recover quickly, how long will it take russia to recover what they have been building up since 1940s?). Besides, the assumption that all (or some) sanctions will be lifted soon is pure conjecture.

        Orkpower? -800K at least.

        Do I think that Trump’s plan is optimal. Not at all. We don’t know what it will be but no, it is far from optimal. Optimal would be constant max pressure on russia and floodgates of support for Ukraine combined with more and more aggressive NATO stance. Detention camps for russian nationals that expressed support for russia in the west ought to be the norm too.

        Ukraine did civilization an enormous favor and in the process hopefully got to where Finland got after WWII. Not perfect, but better than alternatives. If it can be kept that way…

        The weakest parts of Trump’s plan are two. Finding Euros who would be willing to act as cannon fodder if russia attacks again. Getting russia to accept a peacekeeper force that would be meaningful in any way. I don’t believe this will happen and that is why the plan will ultimately fail. We’ll see.

        1. – This was never about land . . .

          Not in and of itself (as in field and forest), but the territories Russia has now apparently successfully seized are enormously geopolitically important. Crimea being the most obvious prize. The Donbas is resource rich (Russia gets those now, at the same time denying them to Ukraine). The Black Sea around there is also replete with resources, now all Russian. Everybody in the region, many who had been becoming openly scornful of Putin, will now go back under the hammer. They all know that any arrangement with the US is worthless against the consistent power of Russia.

          To deny this is a victory is cope.

          My cope is that Trump’s bizarre behaviour (incredibly bizarre) is to lay all this out as the generous victory Putin could have had but will throw away in his forthcoming bad faith actions (which will be actual or manipulated). But as I said; cope. The most obvious explanation is that Trump is a bloody fool with a hardon for hard men. Or there really are p!ss tapes, lol.

          1. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato

            This is why Pootin went to war:

            “The demands, spelled out by Moscow in full for the first time, were handed over to the US this week. They include a demand that Nato remove any troops or weapons deployed to countries that entered the alliance after 1997, which would include much of eastern Europe, including Poland, the former Soviet countries of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and the Balkan countries.

            Russia has also demanded that Nato rule out further expansion, including the accession of Ukraine into the alliance, and that it does not hold drills without previous agreement from Russia in Ukraine, eastern Europe, in Caucasus countries such as Georgia or in Central Asia. [also russia demanded to decide who in Central Europe can have what weapons]”

            How many of those demands have been met? Zero. The opposite has happened. Nato expanded, Central Europe is arming up, presence of foreign contingents and weapon systems (also of strategic value see Redzikowo for example) increases. The distance between Nato and russian strategic deterrence is shorter than ever. The war is a disaster for russia.

            As far the lands occupied, with exception of very early stages, Ukrainians quickly got very good at evacuating their people* and left about as much for russians as Napoleon got from russians. Scorched earth and rarely one stone on top of another. Russia has neither the capital nor the tech to start extracting those resources. Russia is trying to settle some Asian minorities in the corridor to Crimea and so far little success has been had as the landscape looks like from Fallout and nothing works other than landmines.

            As for Crimea, I have always maintained that recovery of that was impossible without total russian collapse, which while inevitable is sadly not here yet. I also always doubted that the terrain of Donbabwe and Luganda will be recovered before that. The russian beast is dying a well deserved death but western obsession with stability and fear of what would happen if russia collapsed keeps it on life support.

            *Which coincidently why there is no partisan movement in those territories. Well that and russian ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians from the early days of conquest.

  6. Re: “Here’s the woman”
    That clip could have used some editing… like maybe an hour’s worth out of an hour and 3 minute video.
    That would have been enough to get the point across.
    But still… Funny as hell.

  7. “For now, I would wait for further information on Trump’s idea for Ukraine and negotiations,”

    What a concept. Considering that Trump has given every indication he wants to move fast on reaching an agreement I’ll wait tilll then to care much about anyone’s analysis.

    1. Lupus
      What the dimwitted Jessica the Colon doesn’t get, is that many analysis, and opinions are only expounded to narrative mold. Jessica is like the fat incel, stupid as the day is long.
      Oh, Jessica and fat incel, I am trying to keep it positive!

        1. To paraphrase J.D. Vance, nobody cares what you think or say, Margaret.

          You have no argument so you resort to weak-tea insults.

  14. Too bad you chased Zinchuck away.
    Sure, he had a mild case of TDS, but he is pretty well plugged into the Canadian energy sector, and gave some good info.

      1. Absolutely. He was very informative. Did not realize he had been chased away. Seems a bit draconian and unneeded.

      2. He expressed some common cause with the Turd’s flag-waving “patriots” and was piled on.
        He is truly concerned that Trump will annex Canada.
        The thing is, when it comes down to actual policy, I think he’s also against “retaliatory” tariffs, but I could be wrong.
        He’s an energy guy, I think all he really wants is for our energy sector to prosper.
        He’s able to take some pretty harsh criticism, even from such jerks as myself, but what was done to him was a bit beyond the pale, IMHO.

        1. “He’s able to take some pretty harsh criticism, even from such jerks as myself, but what was done to him was a bit beyond the pale, IMHO.”

          The problem was that he not only did not learn his lesson the first time , he ‘doubled down’ on it the second time and thus invited even more abuse, remember?

          The moral of this story is: when you find yourself in a hole, STOP DIGGING.

    2. “Sure, he had a mild case of TDS, but he is pretty well plugged into the Canadian energy sector, and gave some good info.”

      True. I just wish he had stayed in his lane and posted about things he actually had expertise in.

    1. Did Buffy Sainte-Marie accuse the Governor General who gave her the Order of Canada and then took it away of being an Indian giver?

  32. This sounds just like Toronto, except the Toronto Police Service and City Hall does everything to lie to assure us that “newcomers” are no more likely to commit a crime than anybody else.

    The Finns are outraged after the police published statistics on the nationality of the perpetrators behind sexual crimes.
    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1890164105744703908

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