Inflation has been a big problem the world over the past few years. But nowhere is it so apparent as in Canada’s housing market:
New data from the world’s largest central bank serves a reminder of just how batsh*t crazy Canada’s real estate bubble is. Housing bubble experts from the US Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed) released its latest update of global home prices in Q3 2023. Most G7 countries moved in a similar fashion, rising with 2020 rate cuts and have shown recent moderation. However, zooming out reveals Canada’s real estate bubble is nothing like any other G7 country. It puts the peaks seen in US and Japanese bubbles to shame, predating its recent population boom narrative.
h/t David Murrell
Creating money has allowed our politicians to be bought by buy bye China.
Not all bubbles burst. But if the bubble meets a quick end with increased unemployment, the fall will be high with MAiD being applied.
After the last bubble finished the predictions where price would collapse.
Sydney just did not grow by much in that time.
The graph does not include Australia, Canada would look less worse if it did.
same root causes as I understand it.
Immigration to Sydney and Melbourne is supposed to be the population of Adelaide over the next 2 years.
At the same time house builders are failing left and right mainly from fixed prices contracts and massive inflation on materials.
Seen this chart and similar ones for years.
Those other countries are not exactly growing in population except the US
Bubbles are supposed to break.
So will Canada’s housing bubble break?
I don’t see how the bubble can break when the flood of 3rd world invaders continues.
We are so far behind in housing that we will never catchup until immigration is paused for a few years.
But it won’t … our woke arses in Ottawa do not want to be seen as meanies who would deny the new-comers a piece of sidewalk or doorway and a small tent to exist in while waiting for the next level of government largess.
^this
Terry Glavin: The Liberal-induced housing disaster cannot go on
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/terry-glavin-the-liberal-induced-housing-disaster-cannot-go-on/ar-AA1n91WV?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ACTS&cvid=e47a230c214b4cccf302f4b0ef7671b0&ei=678
But what if Shiny Pony can induce more foreign drug dealers and corrupt foreign officials to launder their money by buying even more Canadian real estate?
“Well here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten us into!”
Take a bow, Parliament.
I think your housing bubble would be a lot more stable if your banks offered longer term mortgages like the US 30 Year Mortgage.
There would be fewer people forced to sell when interest rates are spiking higher.
For a commercial property mortgage in 2020 we had two basic offers: 30 year at 4.5% with many tens of $thousands in an up front payment, or 10 years at 2.6% and no upfront funds required.
Guess what we picked?
There is an opportunity cost to taking terms out that many years. Just saying and injecting reality and hopefully relevance into the discussion.
I live in Regina, which I find to have a remarkably stable housing market. I personally think that the housing bubble ONLY applies to cities in British Columbia, south western Ontario (I do not think that Thunder Bay or Timmins/Sudbury have problems), and southern Quebec.
If you disagree with me, then please educate me.
But the big-city housing bubbles are in Liberal ridings.
Hi BM. I live in NW New Brunswick where house prices had been depressed for decades. We have had such an influx of immigrants in the past two years that house prices have gone up more than 30%.
Check out Collingwood.
Our idiot in Ottawa continues to force up the value of my paid-for home by allowing a flood of wogs into Canada every year. Thank you very much Mr. Clownsocks. I love the increasing equity … All at the expense of those folks who need a roof so they drive it all up $$ in their quest for a home.
Our idiot in Ottawa can’t understand why housing is so expensive and in short supply,
That idiot should resign while Canada is still a country, more or less.
Election NOW!
Does the increase in value of your house, exceed the depreciation of the dollars that house is valued in? Because that is the other half of the equation that isn’t talked about.
The most insightful comment from the Dallas Fed is that “Canada simply isn’t building enough igloos…”
RNrn
In the empty minds of PM and Freeland, the housing crisis is gonna solve itself.
CBC/CTV/Global/TorRedStar don’t mention this pb so it doesn’t exist from their point of view.
I can’t see any outcome that doesn’t end badly for Canada.
– a US style housing and commercial real estate crash that crashes the economy and destabilizes the banks.
– a continuation of rising prices for home owners and renters who then cut back spending everywhere else, causing a recession.
-young people leave the country because there is no possibility of having a decent standard of living (brain drain). Retirees with money retire elsewhere which reduces tax revenue while not reducing public pension costs.
-Business leave or don’t start a business in Canada because real estate costs and tax burdens are too high which reduces investment, tax revenue and job creation.
Canada could ramp up house building but we all know that it has become impossible to get things built in Canada because of overregulation, political interference and NIMBYs.
@LC Bennett
It almost feels like it was planned that way.
It’s difficult to tell the difference between incompetence and malice with this government. The obvious answer is to reduce demand by reducing immigration to sustainable levels until supply can catch up to demand. Unfortunately, the Trudeau government is using immigration numbers to artificially make Canada’s economic and financial picture look less bad.
Canadian governments have become far too dependent on real estate in their GDP, worse than the US right before their housing crash. Plus Americans didn’t have nearly as big of a tax burden as Canadians. The federal government just keeps adding big, new public spending programs, foreign aid and corporate welfare that are becoming a bigger and bigger burden on taxpayers. And, at the same time, the Trudeau Liberal-NDP is doing their damnedest to shackle the Canadian energy industry and chase away investment.
Incompetence or malice?
Like most problems in the deranged dominion, the size and scope of the state squeezes out the private sector. We enjoy the lowest percentage of the landmass in private ownership of developed nations. In our most expensive and high demand areas, we enjoy highly constrained opportunities to expand urban development (green belt in GTA and ALR in BC). Availability of permittable land is likely half of the problem. Green theocracy, Zoning, planning costs and delays, rent controls, permitting and energy efficiency-obsessed building codes are the rest in terms of the high cost and low volume of supply. Human importation by the state is exacerbating the demand side.
371,299 “New Canadians” in 2023
If 10% come to Calgary at 4/home there will be about 10,000 homes required this year.
Sorry “Old Canadians” but no amount of provincial or civic government interference can fix that.
I fully expect this housing bubble to pop at some point, and I also predict a drop of value in the 25/30% range. This will not help anyone as we are overburdened with high taxation and inflation. It might help new home buyers, but there are a big bunch of people with high interest mortgages that will make matters even worse when the value of that high mortgage home drops like a rock. If course, big picture, I’m expecting fiat money collapsing all over north America, and maybe Europe as well. It’s all being done to prime us for a takeover from the WEF and their globalist plans!
This is underway as we speak, which has just gotten started as homeowners face hefty renewal rates.
They don’t put out signs to announce this, but there are signs of a major housing correction.
Your house hasn’t increased in value … your dollar has shrunken in value
No units on Y axis.