Temporarily Unexpected

17 Replies to “Temporarily Unexpected”

1. Its going to be a green shoot summer, possibly for the rest of “president” Biden’s term.

2. At what point does the coming recession become a depression?

   1. A recession is when your neighbor loses their job.
      A depression is when you lose yours.

      1. A recession is when you lose your job. A depression is when you’re bummed out over losing your job.

   2. Don’t be silly … it will be a “transitory” depression. One that surprises our Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen

3. The issue isn’t have a recession, even a sharp one. Such a high-interest bone-cruncher will kill inflation and set us right. The problem is if governments react to that like Hoover did-with spending and trade wars. Then we are in the most serious trouble.

   1. Thank god we have a competent “president” in charge. He’ll even kamala is a genius. Up here we’ve got one of the smartest prime minister’s in history.

      1. Certainly one of the smartest prime ministers named Trudeau in Canadian history. I’d rate him as at least the third smartest out of two.

      2. And our Deputy PM is the Financial Minister for the WEF. Just making sure the transition from the Canadian dollar to the new digital currency is a smooth criminal looting of the Deplorables.

   2. No it won’t. There won’t be a hard landing, there’ll be no landing at all. Because most of the cause of this inflation cycle is lack of supply and lack of labor. The Fed are addressing the WRONG part of the equation.

4. Ghana just defaulted on external debt, and Sri Lanka is adopting the Indian rupee as their currency of trade. This is just the beginning. Lots of rotten crap is caving in.

5. Expanding fiscally while contracting monetarily. Not necessarily the formula for a quick happy ending. It was the fiscal fight the elder Trudeau moron fought in the 70s and 80s.

   1. Scar – but for some fortunate circumstance, and our own hatred of debt, we could well have been victims of PET’s “fiscal fight”. The fortunate circumstance was that – in the early 1980s when oil companies were laying off staff in the face of PET’s vendetta against them – spouse was kept on (we lost track of subsequent layoffs and contractions in the industry and are grateful spouse was able to work to retirement age) – and the second was that we had a mortgage through the company credit union which allowed us to pay extra each month. Thanks to those extra payments, we were able to weather the rise in our mortgage to 16% without having to increase payments. Many others were not so fortunate and became victims of PET’s economic ideology.

6. See Crash City.

7. Wasn’t it like the 2022 graph back in the late 70s? I’m not too sure on the timeline since I was only an early teen–but I remember hearing my parents say that their mortgage was 12% some time in the late 70s maybe early 80s.

   1. Mortgages were about 16% and higher in the early 1980s.
      My first mortgage in 1999 was 7.5%.
      Only take on debt if you can handle a significant rise in rates.
      Be honest with yourself.

8. The reason rates are rising faster is that inflation is rising faster than previous episodes.

   That being said much of inflation is being caused by supply chain issues. And high interest rates worsen that problem rather than cure it.

   I don’t mind high interest rates. We need to get rid of stupid people and stupid money. Not do I mind a good recession to clean house. It’s what is required.