The SDA 2022 Midterm Results Contest

Political Animal 108 Comments

In the 2022 mid-terms, there are 35 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot.

The U.S. Senate has 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats (including two independents). Democrats control the chamber as the vice-president can break tie votes. There are 35 seats up in 2022 – including a special election in Oklahoma – of which 21 are held by the GOP. That party can retake control with a net gain of one or more seats.

In the House, all 435 districts are up for grabs.

The seats of all 435 representatives will be up for election. The seats of five of the six non-voting members of the U.S. House will be up for election as well.

The results of the 2022 U.S. House elections will determine whether Democrats maintain their majority or Republicans gain control of the chamber. Heading into the election, Democrats hold a 220-212 majority in the U.S. House with three vacancies. Republicans need to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber.

And don’t forget the Governors.

Of the 36 gubernatorial seats up for re-election in 2022, twenty are Republican, and sixteen are Democrat.

Republicans are defending six governorships in states President Joe Biden (D) won in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Vermont.

Democrats are defending one governorship in a state that Donald Trump won (R) in 2020: Kansas.

This interactive map may help.

CONTEST INSTRUCTIONS. READ CAREFULLY.

Predict Tuesday’s outcomes using this gains/losses format, as in this example:

Senate Gains:
Republicans +1
House Gains:
Republicans +18
Governorship Gains:
Republicans -2

TOTAL Republican Gain(-Loss): +17

Results will be scored as below – the bigger the miss, the higher your score. The entry coming closest to 0 in total predictions will win a book from the SDA Free Book Library;

Prediction
Senate: Republicans -2
House: Republicans +12
Governor: Republicans +1
Total score: 		Results
Senate: Republicans +5
House: Republicans +15
Governor: Republicans +1
. 		Score
7
3
0
10

In event of a tie, the entry that comes closest to the House outcome will be the tiebreaker. I have no idea when the contest results will be finalized, because we never know when a pipe may burst. Entries will close at NOON Eastern tomorrow.

Entries with excessive commentary will be deleted. Off topic will be deleted. This is not a discussion thread.

108 Replies to “The SDA 2022 Midterm Results Contest”

  6. Senate GOP +3
    House GOP +29
    Governors GOP +3

    Rosier glasses would predict bigger totals to +5, +35, +4.

  7. Senate Gains: Republicans +3
    House Gains: Republicans +32
    Governorship Gains: Republicans +3

  8. Senate gains Democrats +2
    House gains Democrats +1
    Governor gains Republicans +1

  10. Senate Gains: Republicans +4
    House Gains: Republicans +55
    Governorship Gains: Republicans +3

    TOTAL Republican Gain(-Loss): +62

  11. Senate Gains: Republicans +4
    House Gains: Republicans +37
    Governorship Gains: Republicans +3

  14. It’s not clear in the example whether the scoring is based on difference (so over on House is offset by under on Senate, say) or absolute value of the difference (so over on House and under on Senate increases the total score). Anyhoo…

    Senate: Republicans +3
    House: Republicans + 15
    Governors: Republicans +2

  16. Senate: Republicans + 4
    House: Republicans + 40
    Governorships: Republicans + 4

    Total: Republicans + 48

  24. What the hey..
    Senate +9
    House +44
    Governors +11

    As in30/35
    256/435
    31/36..
    Before the Progressive movement “corrects/trues the vote”.
    After correction it will be pretty much the status quo.
    And trumpeted in the “Press” as a resounding endorsement of President Houseplant and his policies.

    If voting changed anything, you would not be permitted to engage in it.

  27. Senate Gains: Republicans +4
    House Gains: Republicans + 32
    Governorship Gains: Republicans + 4

  28. Senate Gains: Republicans +5
    House Gains: Republicans +25
    Governorship Gains: Republicans +2

    Anything less and it’s RIGGED.

    1. Senate Gains: Republicans +3
      House Gains: Republicans +25
      Governorship Gains: Republicans +2

      I agree but if cheating does occur it’s going to be a month before we know who won the mail in battles.

      2. Senate: +3
        House: +25
        Governors: +2
        _____
        GOP + 30

  35. Like I have a clue.. but hope lives eternal so:
    Senate Gains: Republicans +4
    House Gains: Republicans +38
    Governorship Gains: Republicans +3

    TOTAL Republican Gain(-Loss): +44

  37. Senate Gains: Republicans +3
    House Gains: Republicans +23
    Governorship Gains: Republicans +1

    winner = abs(Prediction-Actual) for the three categories as the value of their sum approaches 0

  39. …and the Libs and the media will pass it off with something along the lines of “Well, at least it wasn’t those Trumpian election deniers.”

  41. Senate +1 MAGA ‘White Supremacist’
    House + 24 ‘Trumpian Election Deniers’
    Governors + 1; Kari Lake is all that matters.

  43. Senate: Republicans +2
    House: Republicans +9
    Governor: Republicans +1

    This is a UWAG – Unscientific Wild Ass Guess

  45. Senate Gains: Republicans -1
    House Gains: Republicans +8
    Governorship Gains: Republicans -1

    TOTAL Republican Gain(-Loss): +6

  46. Call it wishful thinking … or a legitimate Cat. 5 RED Tsunami …

    Senate: Republicans +3
    House: Republicans +19
    Governor: Republicans +4

    However, I fully expect that we won’t know the results for a week or more … as new (D) ballots are found and counted

    1. It is going to be a red tsunami…but I hope the Steve Bannon/Mike Lindell armies are closely watching the voting polls, cheaters might attempt to keep the senate and some key governorships.

      Senate gains: + 5 Republican
      House gains: + 42 Republican
      Governor gains: + 9 Republican
      + 56 Republican total
      I feel my numbers could be conservative, I’m feeling something epic is about to happen. Arivederchi Klaus, Georges, Bill, Barrack and the gang.

      1. I didn’t have the balls to post your numbers … but believe you may be closer to the truth. If … if … we have something approximating a fair and truthful election

  48. Senate Gains: Republicans +11
    House Gains: Republicans +15
    Governorship Gains: Republicans +4

  49. Senate. GOP +4
    House GOP +27
    Govs GOP +3

    Total +34

    Will there be a follow-up poll/lottery on how soon they shuffle Uncle Joe off stage permanently?

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