A long but interesting read here. Grab a beverage. And try to stay on topic if you’re leaving a comment.
London Review of Books- Blast Effects, James Meek reports from Ukraine
Ukraine’s fate won’t be decided in Donbas, where the biggest part of Ukrainian and Russian forces are concentrated, but hundreds of miles away, on the more obscure battlefield of the south-west. The country’s future turns on Russia’s ability to hold on to a piece of land on the western side of the Dnieper, between two port cities: Russian-occupied Kherson, and Mykolaiv, less than forty miles north-west. If Ukraine manages to sweep the Russians from Kherson, the western half of the country will be protected by the great barrier of the Dnieper, Putin will suffer a politically damaging defeat and Kyiv will be closer to freeing its biggest ports from Russian blockade. European leaders sceptical of Ukraine’s ability to resist the invaders may think again. If, however, Russia clings on to its western bridgehead, it will retain the potential to swallow more of Ukraine, threatening Mykolaiv, Odesa and the rest of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast all the way to the Danube, and, eventually, the whole country.
A map to go with the article:
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1556430657882038272/photo/1
https://twitter.com/allan5oh/status/1559317646126071811?t=9cLDHYOGEbFrd1gr_PDcww&s=19
Another map, NASA FIRMS screencap with approximate line of contact. Lots of red dots does not indicate lots of shelling. The system picks up fires, in other words hardware blowing up on fire. What a difference from a few months ago.
Ukraine is in no rush. They want to degrade Russia as much as possible. NASA FIRMS fires confirms that Russian controlled areas are getting lit up. Russia may have the firepower advantage, but that doesn’t mean they hit a damn thing. Bridges, railroads, trains, airfields, ammo depots, Wagner compounds, air defense systems are all being smashed to bits at will. Russia has no response to a system originally designed in 1977.
The author is correct, Kherson and the area east of Kherson are what to pay attention to. Or, it could be a feint. A real one, not the “feint” column towards Kyiv.
A feint. Ukrainians needed to draw the recently formed reserves out of Donbas. They did just that. They are slowly creeping in forward toward Kherson but the frontline seldom moves by more than 5km at any time, anywhere, in either direction. The reality is that Ukrainians don’t have to do anything offensive (nor can they, when lacking air supremacy or an effective air defense bubble which are a russian fiction anyway). Also, Ukrainians cannot afford loses like they have suffered in the second phase. So just keep the pressure and hold the line.
For the last month Siberian Mongols were bled heavily which is why their offensive has stopped. That’s the ticket. Keep hitting Siberians, their ammo dumps, their radars, their bridges, their HQs, their airfields. Siberians have no answer to that. So last month shows virtually no changes other than further gradual inevitable degradation of Siberian fighting capability. Siberians can’t build replacements for what they lost, and when they try, the quality is abysmal. Embargo and sanctions are working and the dud rates of some war production russian guided munitions is well into double digits. The embargo is working. You can’t just replace military grade microchips with those from a PlayStation or electronics found in Finnish pawn shop (yes really).
For as long as Ukrainians keep receiving western aid they will hold. Russia will collapse. Contrary to dreams by deeply emotionally invested Pootin supporters, sanctions are biting, and they are biting harder every day. Anyone looking at the economic effects of the war needs to read this report: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193 if half of what the report says is true (and most probably is) Siberian Mongols are f***ed and all Ukraine needs to do is to hold.
Sanctions are biting in Germany too. I wonder what will happen in January.
^^^ A kneejerk response.
German problems are self inflicted, they should have never made themselves vulnerable and dependent on orc gas. They have options, but for now, they lack political will to implement them. Sooner or later they will have to. Their economic model in the last couple of decades was to have a trade empire without the military to back it up. They relied on cheap russian energy, cheap chicom components and legislative power within EU to gut the competition. That model will not comeback.
The war’s over. Once Donbas falls…and it will, Ruskies will run the table.
Proving that comedian grifters with offshore accounts make shitty Presidents and Left leaning useful idiots will fall for anything.
I’d feel sorry for them if they weren’t such assholes.
Too harsh?
No, just clued out.
allaunMe
Clueless is more accurate!
YOU and the COLON, make great butt buddies
Cleaning out some old stuff today, found an old newspaper with a picture of Zelensky and Schwab together. Zelensky was saying that he will implement a social credit system, and a host of other things to be the poster child for the WEF. There is going to be a lot of pressure to prop up this guy to all the WEF drones like Trudeau and Freeland.
There it is! The WEF narrative. It popped up pretty quick.
Can’t wait for “globohomo”.
“Too harsh?”
No, just entirely detached from reality.
AH, the ghost of snake island rears it’s ugly head agin!!!
Meek, a Guardian reporter, so take anything from him with a truck load of salt!
“Could it have been one of the weapons Ukraine transferred to Russia for decommissioning when it gave up its inherited nuclear warheads in the 1990s?”
No. The most likely origin for the 1988 shrapnel is a Soviet-era Ukranian air defense missile like the Buk. The Russians are using Kalibrs, Iskanders and Onyx for precision strikes in urban areas, mostly Kalibrs and there are hundreds of videos on social media of these stubby winged devices rocketing overhead of Ukranians on their way somehere. None of these Russian missle types were in service in 1988.
As for the claim the Ukrainians are ready to mount a serious counter offensive to retake Kherson that’s either another example of delusional thinking that permeates the western media on this war or cynical Ukrainian propaganda, take your pick.
“Precision strikes”
Hoooooo boy.
“The Russians are using Kalibrs, Iskanders and Onyx ”
And a lot of other things, older and older as the war gores on.
As for “precision” lol, is there even an orc transition of the word?
Examples of older missiles still in widespread use:
Tochka (they claimed they don’t use it but then embarrassed themselves when their lies came out).
Kh-22 aka the venerable AS-4 Kitchen an antique missile, used in the Kremenchuk shopping mall attack
Kh-31
Kh-59
Surely others but those just come to mind first.
All those are Cold War designs and probably Cold War production well pass their best before date.
You mean like Canada did when we took the barrels off of war memorial cannons to refurbish the air defence on our ships for the Gulf War. we didn’t even start new, and went straight to the war before the last war.
Col-All.
2 Dreamers desirous of and wholly supporting UkroNazi Scum totally aligned with deep state actors and their Masters in the Predator Class….namely The Rothschilds & those who dance to their tune.
Iow: Useful idiots.
The 2 of you bore me with your constant anti Russian drivel & reiteration of MSM narrative…get a life ffs.
Sorry Steak, if you insist on reading my posts, you will just have to put up with their contents. Maybe try not reading them if they are causing you so much mental anguish?
A small dose of reality appeared in the National Post today on the Ukrainan war, as seen through the eyes of returned Canadian volunteer soldiers. It needs to be read by the “Russia is on the verge of collapse” types. Yes the Ukrainian rank and file are brave but they are not being well lead. Logistics and communication on the Ukrainian side appear chaotic at best.
“Yes the Ukrainian rank and file are brave but they are not being well lead. Logistics and communication on the Ukrainian side appear chaotic at best.”
That is true to an extent. Generally new commanders are performing well, but holdouts from 2014 and before, tend to be a very mixed bunch. Then there is also a problem of political pressure on army command that possibly led to unnecessary loses in the second phase in Donbas. Logistics, given the variety of gear is of course a constant problem. That has been well known from the start. Russian logistics is probably worse. And none of it contradicts what I have posted above nor the Yale article I have linked.
Make Borscht Not War!
War is stupid!
Garden prolific this year, really outdone itself. Beets, carrots, onions, potatoes, dill, cabbage, peas, yada, yada, so of course deep freeze has been hijacked by the borscht invader! Ahhh, all set for a winter semi-hibernation experience. Yum-yum.
Get hip, man, you need to eat bugs. Borscht the spider!