Farm Credit Services of America Webinar (March 22nd);
Fertilizers, fuels, feed grain and wheat – prices across the board have jumped in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What will happen going forward? To help you navigate these volatile and uncertain times, we offered a special edition webinar featuring geopolitical expert Peter Zeihan and his insights on what world events mean for U.S. agriculture, including what happens when food inputs are not only more expensive but also scarce, how an integrated world market changes when systems break down, and what disruptions in food production and transport mean for producers and consumers.
This video will go offline in a day or so, so if you’re interested watch it now.
Update: I posted this link in advance of watching the presentation. This is essential viewing for the broader perspective of the current and future risks to the global agri system.
I just had a thought part of the way through this — the era of converting food producing acres to fuel may soon go on hold. Not good news for all those canola crushing plants in the works. If anyone out there can download and save this, let me know. I’ll rehost it elsewhere.
h/t Snagglepuss
Well my fertilizer prices have doubled so there is that.
The real question is why this is happening. Sure Ukraine has a part but we have been hearing about a crunch coming due to fuel costs in Germany for some time.
I fear that the war, Like covid and global warming and shipping backlogs, and every other “crisis” we encounter somewhere in the world, is being used to excuse the effects of wrong headed policy over the last twenty years.
We’re in agreement. Everything going wrong today can be placed squarely at the feet of politicians and their myopic policies.
Bingo John
I’ve been stocking up on Cheerios of late – lots and lots of Cheerios. I stocked up on a ****load of pasta back in March 2020 when the initial lockdowns started. I figure I have maybe 3 months of food held in reserve in case the poop hits the fan. After that I’m hoping the tree bark at the park down the street will maybe keep me alive ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
John..
“Wrong headed policy..??
I’d say it’s closer to 50 years….?
I’m also thinking it has a fair amount to do with the relationship between certain Fossil Fuels (Nat Gas), and Nitrogen…Climate Change BS being the culprit.
For Germany, yeah that’s the issue but it’s dragged potash with it. I suppose it might be fifty but I think we have really stepped up our game economic destruction wise in the last little while.
Steakman, all my freaking too long a life.
And here in CA … Gavin Newsom will soon go to DEFCON-4 neverending drought CRISIS! Which means CA farmers will have their water cut off. So don’t expect the vast State of CA to take up any slack. Meh. We just grow vegetables, fruits, and nuts. Not so much wheat.
Wheat grows pretty much anywhere, maybe they can start?
Beyond the growing of bulk cereals such as wheat, oats, barley, rice, corn, there must be the infrastructure to harvest, store and process the product. Once upon a time someone had the idea to put 100000 sows in Utah and raise the pigs there. The train would bring corn from the Corn Belt and carry on taking the pigs to the slaughterhouses of California. The smell of the pig farms wouldn’t be an issue, who lives in Utah anyways (I say this rhetorically). Then someone asked what happens to the water table when 100000 sows wake up in the morning and go for a drink of water. The whole aspect of water wasn’t covered in the webinar but it has as big an impact as any fertilizer. Rain makes grain.
Gotta keep those endangered minnows alive at all cost. California’s ability to squander water is unmatched in human history.
Kenji, ” We just grow vegetables, fruits, and nuts. Not so much wheat.”
So Cali is growing vegetables fruits and nuts, to be consumed by all the vegetables fruits and nuts in Cali.
As to wheat, I would have thought Cali would grow lots of it, cuz there’s an awful lot of chaff in that state.
A while back, you mentioned a number of times you were planning to vacate to better or greener pastures, any update on plans? The west is hanging on the edge of extreme collapse, you might already be too late!
Did I hear him say wheat price will increase by a factor of 4 or 5?! I find his general predictions a little panicky and over-the-top. I could be wrong, maybe we should bang in a little more wheat?
H
[Stop calling out other people. Deleted. – ED]
[Likewise, deleted. – ED]
I watched it twice. Most informative 2 hours I’ve spent in a long while. If even 25% of what he’s saying is correct, we’re in for a long period of upheaval and uncertainty. Politicians have got everything fucdup.
My take too. He’s probably off the mark on some of his observations and predictions, but he has a wealth of knowledge you can’t ignore. As background information, it’s really good.
In line with what he said about India and Pakistan being reliant on Russia for fertilizer and now looking for alternatives, India just signed contracts with Canada to import 1.2 million tons of potash. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-boosts-fertiliser-imports-from-canada-israel-as-russian-supply-disrupted/articleshow/90237275.cms
You mean an even longer period of upheaval and uncertainty don’t you? I would include the last couple of years in that tally.
Wow. I wonder of nazi Freeland understands any of this
I am sure she does.
Last week Prime Turd said expect food shortages.
That came on the heels of Biden saying the same thing a few days prior.
This has all been gamed out by the Top Dogs.
Food and starvation is a powerful tool , look at how it worked for Mao during The Great Leap Forward.
Similar to The Great Reset ?
History Rhymes.
Found my error in parsing the code… Now have the 1920×1080 version.
MP4 – 695MB
I wonder if that can be put on Youtube unlisted without the copyright robots catching it. It’s too big to host, it’ll take down the server.
Just emailed you the direct link for downloading the 1920×1080.
Would the lower res 960×540 – 320MB version work?
Wow, Just forwarded this to my Family.
I remember when Kate posted about Sri Lanka going 100% Organic last year. Google Sri Lanka news today. Food shortages, Export Earning Shortages, Oil Import shortages, Rolling Blackouts half the day.
This Zeihan guy is talking with real facts about things I am already wondering about.
His Ukrainian war analysis is badly out of date. The Russians are already evacuating from the Kyiv Sector. The important question is if Russia can blockade Odessa and the Dnieper ports.
An alarmist, yes. But how much over the last 3 years seemed so far fetched until it happened. Canada and USA are being ‘led’ by the most 2 imbecilic leaders possible. This webinar never touched on the machinations behind the scenes creating and or utilizing these and future upheavals. Of course that wasn’t its scope. If the invisible hand of the marketplace would be left alone then the sorting out will come quicker. However we all know the socialist throng in positions of power cannot ‘let a crisis go to waste’. Witness Sri Lanka and what happens with the unholy union of politicians, bureaucrats, the NGO crowd and a gullible electorate. As I said above, WOW. Even if he is off by 2/3 many are in jeopardy of widespread civil unrest and worse. Thanks for letting me vent. Not going to be a dreamy sleep tonight after contemplating his many facts.
He is giving you the worst case scenario if 30 percent of the worlds wheat is gone from production. Lets just cut the loss in half and add potential variables in this upcoming crop year.
– Any weather issues anywhere else in non conflict zones
– Our political lack of will to address energy, food security with ongoing climate change agendas
– Does anyone really know what the outcome will be of this War.
– All of these issues will be in US midterms and beyond the result
– Canada will have to abandon the whole policy trajectory. If the EU stops using Russian energy, the pressure will be immense for us to open up our energy in North America. Trudeau wont make it to 25 if this guy is correct. He is stating we lose a billion people. Hyperbole ? Perhaps …… Possible ? Apply the variables and you decide.
Had a Syngenta rep come to see me today. They pulled all of their employees out of Ukraine when all of this started. You need inputs to grow a crop. We have supply chain issues here, so what would you multiply the dysfunction happening there!
I sincerely hope we get back to a 2019 type of life, it seems to be fading regretfully!
Agreement with you. However, how can Canada get its energy to the world when it has spent the past 2 decades kneecapping projects to move petroleum based projects?
Clean fuel standard will have to be scrapped, no debate, no more games !
What the hell happened to LNG as a vehicle fuel? It was pushed and pushed by Sask Energy, then nothing. Surely it makes more sense than processing canola seed and old french fry grease.
(I drove a 100% propane fueled van for years, so don’t try to tell me things I already know.)
Do you recall the state of the union speech when George Bush stated it’s time for alternative fuels. I cannot recall exactly if this was right after 9/11, but that changed the direction after that. Fracking was not/ or in its infancy and AG states had another market for corn. Using food for fuel never made sense, and now we will see why.
The political idiots in the US are pushing for even higher ethanol content in fuel. Never underestimate Joe’s ability to…you know the rest. Thankfully wise, experienced old Rear Admiral Buttigieg is in charge of the transportation department.
We had a natural gas van. One ‘problem ‘ was the lack of fuel tax for the govt. Had a refilling station at home, filled up overnight, good all day. Always had gasoline backup.
Kate I used to have an F150 with Propane and could go to the AMSOIL warehouse in Mississauga/Toronto and back. 2 1/2 hr drive 250km one way.
$30.00 worth of propane.
I had my own tank on the farm and pump to fill the truck.
Wow. Those were the days!!!
You guys forget the ripple effect this will have around the globe. People will really start stockpiling, more wars and insurrections will further exacerbate the situation. North American corrupt govt and beauracracies will do what’s best for themselves rather than what is best for their countries. Plan for the worst, anything good is a bonus.
Looking forward to viewing, thanks for posting. When a lot of intelligent people from different backgrounds that are likely unaware of each other start to draw similar conclusions about famine (prior to the Ukraine hit) it brings a gravity to a situation. Ukraine is so far, the cherry on top. Been a lot of sources calling out a slow motion train wreck in food for a few months now. Order of magnitude price increase and availability for fertilizer in particular, well before Ukraine. Some autistic kid wrote an eye opening bit on point with fertilizer per acre and yield comparisons by country. We’ve walked out onto the plank of just in time supply chain coupled with input – yield intensive ag. Most people don’t can, root cellar, hunt, fish or garden like they have an ancestral memory of famine. Read a bit on a blog that has not talked about prepping before that suddenly had a post on thinking out what situation(s) you think are likely, deciding how much (how long the situation will go in a critical phase), and what you plan to store and what conditions would need to be met for you to use the store. His view was how to take the edge off going in debt with inflation and un-affordable food coming for a winter and short term shortages by purchasing “cheap” and available now. Unless you want to go full Mormon, the hope is no Holodomor or Great Chinese Famine here. But someone is going to draw the short straw and there are already folks saying Africa will walk to Europe this winter for food. Seems like a perfect storm is brewing for somebody somewhere.
Even if we are relatively unscathed by this the immigration pressures will be very high in the coming years. if the video is to be believed, and I think it largely is, we actually also want some additional population to be added to the mix . That having been said I am vehemently opposed to importing peoples who have not lived with basic Judeo-Christian moral tenets and who have not experienced democracy in some form or another. I would take a few hundred thousand Ukranians as a safe bet for future good citizens of our fair land.
This weekend’s shopping list includes a new chest freezer and a thousand dollars worth of meat and other freezables to add to the “pantry”. My hope being that my preps act a shock absorber for the worst supply chain issues we will endure in the near and mid future. That and bringing in a few yards of triple mix for my garden. Having just moved last year, I sadly had to abandon my extremely productive vegetable garden and now I’m starting from scratch again. There will be much canning this fall.