2018 Midterm Open Thread (Bumped)

Political Animal 102 Comments

For your general discussion and observations.

And now, early results. The New York Times page linked is entertaining in itself. Here’s another at Politico that’s helpful, too. It’s going to be a long night for our southern neighbors, so I won’t be updating often. Watch and wait is the plan here.

Blue Wave Updates:

One of the house races under watch has been KY6, and it looks to be going to Barr[R] (some local stations have called it) while Republican DESANTIS (error corrected!) looks to be pulling ahead of his communist opponent in the Florida Governor race. Elsewhere Democrats have flipped two house seats.

For the red meat audience, the Gateway Pundit is hosting live results with Steve Bannon. (h/t B A Deplorable Rupertslander)

Fox News’ Bret Baier around 9:07 Eastern: “our early pessimism at Republican results may have been too pessimistic”. (Paraphrased)

9:20pm: Against expectations, Republicans pick up a Senate seat.

As Fox News predicts a majority Democrat House.

More Updates: Cruz declared over Beto in Texas, Missouri looks like a Senate flip to Republicans as was North Dakota…

As expected, Democrats will take the House with a comfortable, but not overwhelming majority, while Republicans solidified their hold in the Senate with a gain of four, and more seats possible.

That’s a wrap for me tonight, as the final results will outlast my evening.

(One final add.)

102 Replies to “2018 Midterm Open Thread (Bumped)”

  1. Judging from the reaction in 2016, if the Republicans maintain control of both houses the left will attribute the results to cheating.
    After all what other reason could there be to folks that believe Trump’s biggest crime was winning the presidency.

    2. If they take the House of Rep, I look forward to their impeachment of Trump for winning the 2016 election. They will subpoena all the 60 million + Trump supporters and discover a massive conspiracy 🙂

  2. A good early sign, realclearpolitics senate poll averages are showing that of the latest polls, 7 of 8 races moving in the GOP direction, including arizona, missouri, nevada, florida, montana, texas, and michigan. Only NJ moving towards the Dems. This suggests late deciders/breakers might be favouring the GOP. It could also be statistical noise showing nothing. However, this is what happened with polls in 2016, some last-minute polls in blue states like Michigan and Wisconsin showed a last minute break to the GOP, at which point Dems hit the panic button, but it was too late.

    A real eye-opener is Michigan where the latest poll has Stabenow up by only 3:
    Mitchell Research 11/5 – 11/5 827 LV 3.4 49 46 Stabenow +3
    Trafalgar Group (R) 11/2 – 11/5 1817 LV 2.3 53 44 Stabenow +9
    Gravis 10/29 – 10/30 764 LV 3.6 54 41 Stabenow +13

    That’s some serious movement to the GOP there, looks like Michigan breaking GOPwards just like 2016.

  3. Report from rural South Carolina: turnout seems to be bigger than it was in 16. I’ve talked to those who didn’t trust Trump as a New Yorker and figured he’d go squishy, perhaps some of them have decided to vote. New registrations are up in SC.

    From a few conversations I gather some of my black neighbors have figured out what I heard a New Mexico rancher say best: “If there were Mexican lawyers jumping the border to do wills for $50 cash, we’d have two fences and a kill zone in between.”

  4. I think “bad cop” Mueller has 2 sets of findings for his special prosecution, 1 for a Democrat majority House win which he expects, and 1 for a Republican majority House win…

  5. As per usual, all of the old white guys are wearing their “I voted” stickers.

    I don’t see any of the libs doing so.

    Spoke with a big SWJ friend(works at circle k) this morning(he’s at work); says he “hasn’t voted” but “might”. I’m chalking him up as a “no”.

    It has been my observation that libs in general are very adamant about their opinions, but seem to be very adverse to having to make any sacrifice to vote, whether it’s sending a registration form in the mail, or taking a few hours to vote.

    I predict that the Republicans end-up with 420+ in the house, and +3 in the Senate. I did not review all house races, but did the ones thought to be ‘in play’. My analysis is based on this: take the real clear politics average and add 3 for gop… add 5 for gop if trending. I base this on the fact that RCP is a lagging indicator. In other words… trend is very powerful IMO.

    All of that said… the wild card is the number of students that get out to vote. They are very focused at ASU to get every dumb-a$$ they can to vote. This could be the surge in #’s we’re seeing(but I doubt it).

    We are seeing significant gains for the GOP in the demographic of American’s of African Decent… but I don’t think it will impact this midterm… as this demo does not participate in off year elections; therefore, it is a non factor regardless of whom they support(collectively). Perhaps it will pay dividends for Trump in 2020.

    Finally… I will predict that if the Dems win the house… it will be a boon for Trump 2020; you can bank on it! The Dems better be careful what they wish for; GOP majorities have been the only cover the Dems have for their cray…cray. IF these people get a whiff of power… they will absolutely implode and create the environment of GOP sweep in 2020. – It has been saideth.

    1. Indeed, I will fire up the TV (very rare occurence) to watch the gnashing of teeth and tears. Top quality entertainment.

  10. Just heard CBC is declaring the Democrats winners of 432 seats in the House and all 35 Senate seats.

    Okay,I just made that up, but I DID hear prayers from the Left to that effect.

  11. I hate to say this, but if this breaks the way this discussion is heading, I think there is a good chance that we see a really ugly, violence filled night on campuses and the usual sjw cities (Portland, SF, LA, DC etc), the left has been fed a lot of BS about taking back power and checking Trump. If this doesn’t happen and he expands power, could get ugly. I hope I am wrong.

    1. The lef twill get ugly. That’s a guarantee. I hope at least the US will get a Trumpian majority in both houses.

  12. Bad sign for California’s future … very long lines and crowds (at 10:30a) in my suburban polling place. Biggest crowd since the 2008 (first affirmative-action) presidential election. And we know how that turned out. Bienvenidos Gov. Newsome! Uggggh … kill me now.

    1. Sorry Kenji, but Kalifornica is a lost socialist outpost, much like Canuckistan.

      The leftists haven’t created enough pain yet…..

      1. The Golden Twinkie State is lost … FOR-ev-ER. Too many Mexicans here who want FREE SHIT. Too many hipsters working for Fackebook, making BIG BANK and feeling guilty about it … so they vote to give away other people’s money. No election will ever turn this State RED … ever again. It can’t crater deep enough to ever change

  13. I’m thinking there’ll be a number of seats, too close to call, at midnight,,, likely some recounts. Won’t likely stay up late as it may not be decided tonight anyway, unless there’s a RED WAVE, then there’ll be some entertainment.

    Y’all that follow this closely, what election races, have you heard, that would be considered “bell weather” seats in the Eastern Time zone?
    Would like to have a list to watch as the results come in.
    I’ve heard one to watch would be House seat VA #7

    Oh ya, just hearing on the radio, problems voting in Democrat counties.

  14. If you are located in the US, Google’s home page logo currently reads “Go Vote”. What a damned dishonest company. If they were even remotely clean about their motives it would read “Go Vote Democrat”. This is a company with dirty hands.

    And if you type in “Donald Trump” into the search field the first thing that comes up are 3 negative news articles on Trump.

    Forget about Russia. Let’s take a closer look at Silicon Valley.

    GO TRUMP! MAGA! RED WAVE!

  15. Trump has this. I’m not worried in the least. Canada 2019 however? That’s more scary. Will we devolve and relive the decline of Canada from 1968 -1984? Are Canadians truly, bent on the termination of their own country? 2019 Canada may be the last election within the Canada that we know. The coming financial implosion with the blatant disregard for many of it’s citizens, is not going to sit well with many provinces/states. One can only hold to the greater good for so long before they realize they are not allowed to be part of it.

      1. I spent a couple of months making fund raising calls for the Conservatives. I talked to hundreds of Canadians, from Newfoundland to Yukon, and all points in between (except Quebec). We talked about the economy, terrorism, pipelines, dairy supply management, and legalizing pot. The one thing we didn’t talk about – Max Bernier. Only about 6 people mentioned him. There is no groundswell for him among CPC contributors, that’s for sure.

        And don’t be so quick to count Scheer out. Lorne Nystrom, 30 year House of Commons vet, did and lost his seat to Scheer. The high profile people running for Speaker of the House discounted Scheer, and he won there. The better known and better financed Tory leadership candidates all counted Scheer out, but he won there as well.

        Don’t be surprised if a highly effective “Mr. Dad” campaign turns around enough swing voters who are tired of the Playboy PM. As William Davis used to opine “Bland works”.

  16. I was watching CNN for a few minutes and they are being very careful not to call for a Democratic blue wave.

    2. I watched CNN for the 10 minutes I could take it, and that was a confident looking panel. They think it’s going to be blue wave. Praying they are going to be in tears tonight.

  17. “Hold your ground! Hold your ground!
    Sons of Gondor, of Rohan, my brothers,
    I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.

    A day may come when the courage of men fails,
    when we forsake our friends
    and break all bonds of fellowship,
    but it is not this day.

    An hour of wolves and shattered shields,
    when the age of men comes crashing down,
    but it is not this day!

    This day we fight!!
    By all that you hold dear on this good Earth,
    I bid you stand, Men of the West!!!”

    Aragorn knew what he was talking about.

    1. cgh – I love how Trump ends each rally; he’s a stalwart warrior, leading his army of patriots. The Tennessee rally for Marsha Blackburn was inspiring, especially when Lee Greenwood walked on stage and sang his song, ‘I’m proud to be an American.’ That was not planned!

  18. Most bookies are no longer accepting bets on the midterms. PredictIt and the Iowa Electronic Markets still are. Neither one is offering close to the odds the official poll aggregators are. Bookies and punters learnt their lesson in 2016. Pollsters haven’t.

    Republican chances of majority of American vote sufficient to counteract organized Democratic voter fraud and hold House:

    PredictIt: 32.5%
    Iowa Electronic Markets: 22.1%
    538: 12.1%

  19. LOL. “Famous” “celebrities have a get out the vote live stream on Youtube.

    18 hours and only 14k views. Like to dislike ratio 60 to 1k.

    1. Thanks for the tip, Don. I would like to head over there & leave a comment, but could not find the stream. Could you provide a link?

  20. One of the things that Rush Limbaugh mentioned this am was the degree of early voting that’s taken place in Florida. He had heard about 80% of voting in Florida was early, yet the polling companies are still polling up until the final day, even though any changes that may occur in the final days would affect maybe only 20% of those voting on the actual voting date… Today.

    *no link, just heard this on the “radio”.

  21. I have no I-dee.
    Honestly, I have no idea who will come out on top tonight. I am just too far away and too disconnected to get a realistic estimate of who is wining.
    So I will warm up the popcorn popper, and cool the beer then sit back and watch it unfold. Less stressful this way.

  22. MSNBC “Mistakenly” Shows Results Of Florida Governor Race One Day Early:

    “Hayes told viewers: ‘Quick clarification here. Just want to say, earlier this hour, uh, we showed a graphic of the Florida gubernatorial race. May have caught your eye because our system had inadvertently populated some test numbers.’

    ‘Obviously, we do not yet have any vote totals here, the night before the election,’ Hayes. ‘That was a misfire. Don’t worry. I was pretty confused when I saw it up there, to see it there myself.’ ”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-06/msnbc-mistakenly-shows-results-florida-governor-race-one-day-early

    The Dems are capable of ANYTHING.

  23. This is already starting to go horribly wrong! Indiana is going red bigly and it was in play.

  24. Watching from Georgia. Kemp is terrible. Abrams is more so. Frustrating as a permanent resident I cannot vote, just have to wait.

  25. To late to post in the vote-contest thread, but I’ll just predict here that the Democrats will take both congressional houses.

  26. Fingers crossed Repubs hold the House. Everything else is secondary. I think that all Repubs will vote Red all down the ticket so if a senate seat is taken, so probably will be the congressthingypeoplekinds.

    1. Holding senate more important to me so they can continue confirming judges, especially if another Supreme Court vacancy.

      1. Yes, I thought the same as I was writing that. But … if the dementocrats take the house of reps, then they will continue to shag Trump with Mueller and cease all oinvestigations ointo their wrong-doings.

        1. Good point. I do want to see more from Nunes. You might see something come from the DOJ inspector general at some point.

          And then yes, you’re gonna see the Dems start subpoenaing everything from Trump if they gain control, but on the other hand, Trump can just ignore them the way Nunes has been largely ignored by the DOJ and FBI so far. So you do have a point there, I’ve just become a pessimist that we’ll ever see anything happen to the Dems/FBI/DOJ/StateDept for their corruption in 2016/2017.

        2. Another benefit of keeping the house is that it keeps Pelosi out of the picture, hopefully for good. It’s hard to picture the Dems keeping her in charge after losing such an opportunity.

  27. I’m not going to make any guesses about numbers. But I do predict that if the Dems fail to make any significant gains, the media will blame Trump for playing up fears about immigration as why he was able to succeed.

  28. I feel deja vu….this is 2016 all over again in just about every way.

    Fingers crossed for conservatives….

    1. interestingly, Tump isn’t “a conservative” rather he is an anti-establishment, anti-elite pro common folk leader. A position that should have been, at least recently, the position of the dementocrats; even his so-called ‘anti free-tradeism” is a dementocrat position. Fortunately, he has not adopted the traditional dementocrat racism.

      He is anti-esstablishment, and the establishemnt is globalist and the US government was globalist. But the [people had had enpugh and voted for someone to smash the current order and Trump is dping that. May he continue to do so.

  30. First piece of good news goes to the GOP, with Braun snagging one of those too-close-to-call Senate seats.

  31. Perhaps another piece of good news.

    Nate Silver is just another polling huckster. Definitely not a genius, not even close

    1. I give him credit for trying to be objective. Even in 2016 he had Trump with a 1 in 4 chance to win, which is significant. 1 in 4 is not great but not bad, and much higher than what all the other predictors were giving Trump. His site is good, all you gotta do is ignore the opinion pieces where their liberalness comes out.

      1. Disagree. He is vastly overrated, and he relies on a data gathering methodology that is out of date.

  32. On 538.com probably of Dems winning the senate was forecast at something like 85%. Now it’s 55%. Shades of 2016.

      2. I agree, it’s way too early. 538.com has the Dems back up to a 2 in 3 chance of winning the house. That is nowhere near decisive enough to be calling the race. I have no idea why Fox would jump the gun like that. Some good news from Florida, looks like Scott will come out on top for senate and desantis for governor, the former by 0.8% and the latter by 1%. There are just not enough votes left to make up the difference (<1% of votes are left). Also, <0.5% difference is required for automatic recount.

    2. LOL that was their chance of winning the house. And that’s what happened. Silver never gave the dems a good chance of taking the senate.

  33. By my calculation, based on the current results, the Republicans only have to win 4 to 5 tossup districts and they have the house.

    1. I don’t know about your calculations – I don’t think it’s looking good for GOP in the house. But the senate is a lock.

  34. Ryan James Girdusky
    @RyanGirdusky
    11% in and John James is up in Michigan by 20k votes. This should not be happening #Michigan #ElectionDay

    6:25 PM – Nov 6, 2018

    Early results, but Michigan looking good…

    Cheers

    Hans Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
    1st Saint Nicolaas Army
    Army Group ‘True North’

  35. John James giving a great showing with 20% reporting still up by about 22,000 votes…

    Votes · 20% reporting
    49.7%
    730,414
    John James
    REP
    48.2%
    707,992
    Debbie Stabenow
    DEM

  36. Major network forecasts being made for a Dem House at this point must be counting the expected wins in California as a given Dem near sweep. The best time to make reckless guesses is when hope is low so I’ll now expect Rep. surprises to come out of bankrupt California.

  37. PredictIt has called the House for the Democrats, 98.1 percent probability.

    I don’t always enjoy being right.

    1. It’s not over til it’s over. But yeah, not looking good for the house. On the bright side, the GOP is on track for between 53-55 senate seats, better than expected, and this increases their chances of holding the senate again in 2020.

  39. Not liking the House results but the Senate is interesting:

    Heitkamp gone. McCaskill gone. Bye, bye O’Rourke.

    We all owe James O’Keefe and Project Veritas a great amount of thanks!

  41. No matter what finally happens this is a win from Trump.

    Despite two years of daily media attacks against Trump, the Republicans hold the Senate, and they might hold the House and if not will be so close!

    So much for the Big Blue Wave we were told was coming.

    Go Trump. The MAGA train has not been stopped.

  43. Trump is a great fighter and fought this battle tooth and nail. Conservatives the world over take note and heart – this is how u do it. He really blunted the massive establishwampment counter attack combined with the Dems own tendency fumble things miserably.

    The minor blue gains in the house I predict will be nuisance value and only galvanize voters in 2020 for Trump. MegaMAGA

    1. Well said indeed.

      Dems may have got the house but overall Trump was the winner tonight for all manner of reasons.

    2. “Conservatives the world over take note and heart – this is how u do it”

      Actually this is how you hand the country over to your opponents. The House has been gone for a long time.

  44. Now the US Congress will revert to resembling the IQ of our Parliament likely with Nancy Pelosi as majority house leader and roughly intellectually equivalent to the Spawn. She might actually be worse, if that’s possible.

    Two years of gridlock and flaccid attempts at impeachment to look forward to!

  46. I feel bad that Scott Walker was defeated (just barely!)…He is such a good, strong man and a natural leader. On the flip side, Abrams was defeated in Georgia, even though Oprah campaigned for her. The celebrity endorsements didn’t work.

      1. Walker got involved with a Chinese company, Foxconn, and got taken to the cleaners. He gave them a huge state subsidy that was not only too expensive but didn’t contain enough safeguards to prevent either increased costs or decreased job numbers. He was desperate to kick-start Wisconsin manufacturing, especially in light of Harley’s feud with Trump, and he got taken.

        I lived up there 15 years and was a big Walker fan. I understood after everything he went through that he needed to run for a 3rd term, and I supported him even though I would usually vote against someone seeking a third term. A fourth was past his sell-by date, and Foxconn proved it.

        1. I was in error above in that my memory was off and this was Walkers 3rd run. I stand by everything else.

  47. Thank God for gridlock, which is really the best governing configuration. Scary that a radical crypto-socialist nearly took Florida, and a Dem got within a few points of taking Texas. Texas is bluing.

    Trumpism is radically unpopular and even without it the country would likely be bluing. Turmp makes it worse.

    1. “Trumpism is radically unpopular ”

      Then why does he keep winning? These are wildly successful mid-terms compared to Clinton, Bush and Obama. UnEm-ployed – get a job.

      1. ” These are wildly successful mid-terms compared to Clinton, Bush and Obama.”

        That’s dumb. Bush won seats in 2002. Obama was terrible and the ACA despised.

        These losses came on the back of an economy at a swell. When the next recession comes…

        1. “That’s dumb. Bush won seats in 2002. ”
          Because he was riding the 9/11 wave you drooling, window licking, $hit for brains, imbecile. 2002 was the only first midterm election in the recent history when the party that had the president won seats in the house.
          Do you know what were the only first two midterms since late cold war when the president’s party added senators? Bush again and Trump. Except that Trump added three (most likely) to Bush’s one and Trump did not have a 9/11 to rally the populace around him.
          Put a sock in it.

  48. One thing that bothers me about the pro-Democratic Party media is that they refuse to mention — among all the gassy print and broadcasting utterances — any actual concrete figures as to net pick-ups, by party, in the House and Senate races — and the final seat counts for each house. Providing these data is mentally above any in the media cartel.

    Nowhere can I find this information. All the corrupt media cartel say is that “the Democrats won the House” and “the Republicans retain control of the Senate”. Anything after that is mere bloviating gas. Any one know the aggregate figures?

  49. I am disappointed that the House is now under Democrat control. A mentally disturbed Maxine and similarly disturbed radical members will be able to pursue and possibly force a varied harassment agenda against the president.

    I am also disappointed that at first glance the radical left, such as this Cortez woman and Bernie Sanders, apparently received more support, and a few came close to winning their areas. This is a result of the leftist indoctrination in the educational system. Why is it that people keep being mesmerized by the illusion of a free lunch, and refuse to see results such as Venezuela?

    1. Why is it that people keep being mesmerized by the illusion of a free lunch, and refuse to see results such as Venezuela?

      As has been mentioned on SDA numerous times before, real socialism hasn’t been tried yet. The left will destroy country after country, society after society until it finally has it right. I mean, look at (post-national, sharia-compliant, gender-balanced, carbon-neutral Soros vassal on stolen aboriginal land) Canada. It took the Trudeau family nearly 50 years.

    2. ” This is a result of the leftist indoctrination in the educational system. ‘

      It is also the result of ineptitude on the right, and its infiltration by racists and other rock-bangers. You guys are the perfect opposition for the Proggies to have.

    3. “This is a result of the leftist indoctrination in the educational system. ”

      And of electorate replacement by importation of millions of turd worlders for whom collectivism is the only frame of reference.

Proudly powered by WordPress & Skyrocket Themes

MENU

Navigation