Gallup’s historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans’ current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup’s final survey’s margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
It should be noted, however, that this year’s 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
Grab some beer and popcorn (Thanks to the Government child subsidy, that’s all that I spend the money on). It’s going to be an interesting night. Hopefully, with a very happy ending.
Vero Possumus! (Yes We Can [turf the blackguards out])
I’m only going so far as to say the control of the House will change hands – a very safe prediction. However, if readers want to look at an “uncharted” prediction, there are these thoughts at American Thinker.
And keep in mind, the difference between 75 seats and a hundred seats could be a mere vapor of a half-percent of the raw vote. The point is, this beat-down will be bigger than the pundit class is predicting.
Oh, yes, there are going to be some changes but be careful what you wish for. As I see it there are two problems. 1 – throw the bums out has got to be tempered with a thought or two about who is replacing them and 2 – a huge majority will give the GOP a false sense of vote pulling power going into 2012. I plan to do the happy dance Tuesday night but Wednesday morning it’s back to work
The establishment GOP should also trembling in their boots
Too pessimistic to agree with any of these massive change predictions. Just hoping for control change and start sending some repeal bills to BO so he can veto them…
I hope that set you free would be right and that it catches on here.
I think the spread is wider than these establishment pollsters are letting on. Some unbiased polling has put the GOP at +65 seats in the house, +8 senators. I think from early trends that there may be a landslide victory. The only thing hold that back is 14 states have 2012 by-elections.
The nagging question is will this produce the change in direction voters want?
It’s the end of the left as we know it (maybe?…)
George Jonas writing in Saturday’s National Post seemed to echo sentiments put forward by Glenn Beck: Namely, the ship of state is going to hit an iceberg soon. The only questions remaining are exactly when and how hard.
The GOP will be in a bind should they win. If they ‘slash’ spending IOT get the finances in shape, social unrest may follow a la France and Greece. Obama will be waiting in the wings to offer bromides and more social platitudes as a solution. If they merely ‘obstruct’ Obama for the next two years, then Obama will be able to claim the high ground and offer another plate of ‘social redistributionist’ clap-trap.
As Jonas opined, better not to be anywhere near the bridge when the ship hits the iceberg. And unless Obama has a huge change in thought, hit it he most certainly will.
If nothing else is accomplished, on Wednesday morning, every career politician in the US (REP and DEM) is going to be terrified of the American People.
Good!
Less we can!!! Less we can!!!
Less being federal spending of course.
The surviving Dems will hopefully be too terrified to sign onto any significant legislation proposed during the lame duck session.
Here’s hoping……
Mr “Thin-Skin” is going to have a rotten tuesday evening. I can just picture Robert “Ummm Ahhhh Errrr” Gibbs sputtering out lines Wednesday morning. It will be hilarious to watch. I wonder who Obummer is going to throw under the bus for this. He says now that the reason for his low popularity is because people don’t understand what he’s actually accomplished in two year. Ugggh, Mr Telepromter you have it slightly incorrect. Americans understand all too well what you’ve done to the country.
I agree with the Gallup people – those hoping for a huge Republican win based on +15 should temper their expectations. Look at the Blocheads and the Greens in Canada; they poll about the same percent of the popular vote but because the Bloc’s support is concentrated and the Greens’ diffuse, the Bloc ends up with 40+ seats and the Greens zip.
I think we should be prepared for a scenario where many Republicans are returned with a much greater majority, but that it won’t translate into a massive gain in seats. Sure, they’ll take the House, and make gains in the Senate, but I really think an historic win is improbable.
The Republicans BETTER understand that the work starts on Wednesday. One challenge will be the talking-heads and their constant harping on ‘what cannot be done’. It will be difficult to stand steady during the inevitable Progressive isth storm that will follow the Republican landslide. The Progressives will yell and scream what ‘can & can’t be done,or else!’; and it will be up to the individuals to withstand the storm, bribes, and promises. Their assaults are but a mirage, and should just be ignored.
I’m hopeful that the pundits are wrong (again) and the GOP does take the Senate. I’ll be surprised if they don’t.
The Obama-Nation(tm) is going to get its wings clipped…voters are in high dudgeon.
R-E-S-P-E-C-T
Reminds me of the following:
Respect the Irish Vote: Aftershock in European Parliament
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6QmH-7fu68
Socialists don’t really want to hear from democracies who disagree with their state worship.
The individual is to be subsumed to the state.
Exercising your vote is the only thing that prevents your leaders from heading off into wild eyed utopias.
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/251670/day-democratic-dead-henry-olsen
Day of the Democratic Dead
This election is a referendum not on Obama personally, but on Obama as “liberal progressive”.
…
Feeling a little tarnished and rusty? Burnish your halo its All Saints Day!
Matthew 5:11,12
11 “Blessed are you when men revile you and persecute you and utter all kinds of evil against you falsely on my account. 12 Rejoice and be glad, for your reward is great in heaven.”
Prosit
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Sic gorgiamus allos subjetatos nunc
…The point is, this beat-down will be bigger than the pundit class is predicting.
Voter fraud from the left ( ACORN, etc…) will be at least 3 times what it was in 2008 (as it will be revealed in the coming weeks)
Just my prediction.
I could be wrong but I doubt it.
Not exactly voter fraud but just as bad,
Delaware TV Station “Forgets” to Run O’Donnell Paid TV Program
How can anyone “forget” to play a 30 MINUTE program???
Not a 30 second one, a 30 MINUTE one!!!
This is not an error it is malice, it is fraud from the left.
Liberals are RUTHLESS people.
They are dangerous.
Read the rest at,
http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2010/11/delaware-tv-station-forgets-to-run-odonnell-paid-tv-program/#comments
Fun fact – in 1894, the Dems lost 125 seats and the Republicans picked up 130 in a 357-seat House. Here’s hoping history repeats itself, or at least comes close.
“Some unbiased polling has put the GOP at +65 seats in the house, +8 senators.”
The current seat distribution of the 100 seat US Senate is 58 Democrats, 1 Independent (ex-Democrat Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who caucuses with the Dems) and 41 Republicans. A Republican pickup of 8 seats means 50 Democrats, their 1 Independent ally and 49 Republicans. (The US Constitution allows the US Vice President, who is also President of the Senate, to vote only in case of a tie vote.) That’s a 1 seat majority for the Democrats, with Vice President Joe Biden’s if-needed tie-breaking “insurance” vote.
In the 435 seat US House of Representatives, a minimum majority, 1/2 + 1, is 218 seats. The current seat distribution is 257 Democrats, 178 Republicans. If the Republicans pick up 65 seats, that’ll be 243 Republicans -a 25 seat Republican majority- and 192 Democrats.
(Sure would be nice in this scenario, to find 2 more Senate seats for the Republicans!)
You should be tuning in to some of the talk over at Daily Kos.
Sounds like some of the folks over there are feeling suicidal.
Let’s put it this way, a few are making Paypal bets about how many Senate seats the Dems lose.
@ Dave in Pa
Keep the faith, some boneheaded move by the opposition in their hour of desperation will demonstrate the simple minded avariciousness for power and yield the appropriate result…
Prosit
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
“Generic Congressional Ballot
Generic Ballot: Republicans 51% Democrats 39%
Monday, November 01, 2010
Republicans have opened a 12-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 31, 2010. New Rasmussen Reports polling finds that 51% of Likely Voters nationwide plan to vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 39% are opting for the Democrat.
If these results hold, it could lead to the election of more Republicans to Congress than at any time since the 1920s.
With just one day left until Election Day 2010, these new numbers reflect an increase in the Republican advantage from nine points in each of the preceding two weeks.
Republicans lead by 20 among men and by six percentage points among women. They lead by 20 among senior citizens and by 31 among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.”
If those voter trends hold at the ballot box it doesn’t bode well as the tsunami swell crests at just the right moment for the Republicans.
In political terms one might describe the shift as seismically epochal…
Prosit
Hans-Christian Georg Rupprecht, Commander in Chief
1st Saint Nicolaas Army
Army Group “True North”
Kevin, maybe and maybe not.
In virtually every state in the Union, the parties need the independent support.
And the Gallup shows the Dems have lost that hugely.
Now for specific results, I will be very happy if that utter uselessness Barbara Boxer goes out. As for Harry Reid, he built his career in recent years on killing about the only recession-proof employment Nevada had in Yucca Mountain. How sweet it will be if it’s loss of jobs in a recession which dumps him on his hiney.
I want Chris Matthews to cry like a little girl, and Keith Olbermann to have a complete physical and mental breakdown on air, soiling himself in the process. Is that so much to ask?
Schadenfreude: Everyone needs a hobby.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPIP-i3sdVk
Ken(Kulak)
Want it to catch on?
Look in the mirror and say “Yes! I CAN!”
It takes individuals to make things happen.
Hopefully there will be a bunch of DOJ maggots sitting in Arizona jails on Tuesday:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/29/justice-dept-send-election-observers-arizona-group-seeks-crack-illegal-voters/
They are clearly there for ONLY ONE reason, which is to enable violation of election law by illegal aliens. May they rot in hell for what they’ve done to this country!
cgh:
If you read the fine print in the Gallup poll, it was based on a survey of 2,240 adults. That’s about 4 for every House seat. It’s pretty hard from that small a sample to tell how things are going to every race, and as they note, past predictors might not work this time.
And, as we just saw in Toronto, polls right up to the election can be wrong. I thought Ford would win, but I thought it would be close. Again, Gallup notes +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20. This could a one of twenty case, or if their error is 2% the wrong way, that 12% point lead is only 8, which would not lead to such a huge victory.
Finally, when a lot of people hear their candidate is going to win big, they don’t bother to vote. Getting out the vote is the important thing. I think the Republicans in general are better organized than the Democrats, so I hope they’ll deliver, but really, we have to wait and see.
As best said by Instapundit…
“Don’t get cocky”
To my American friends, get out and vote!
I want to see enough Gops in the C and S … to force investigations.
Time for Reid… Frank and others to face the music.
Kevin, polling is something I’ve had some experience with. It’s all in how the questions are posed. Given who commissioned them, I have had some suspicion that the Toronto polls were to some degree crocked. They told the media what it wanted to hear, or perhaps more accurately, the MSM intelligentsia only reported what it wanted to see.
I am less suspicious of the Gallup if it’s the same methodology used in every previous US national election.
As to the sample size, that’s not a huge problem here. Again, if the sample is well selected it can be quite accurate. What makes polls accurate is consistency of results and methodology over a string of past events. It’s not clear to me from what happened in the Toronto municipals was that the polling was following patterns established in previous elections. Also, the Ipsos-Reid polls were consistently showing Ford well ahead. Only one poll on Thanksgiving showed a dead heat, and the media jumped all over that one.
Getting control of the house is a fait accompli. The senate I would give less than fifty percent chance of having a similar outcome BUT it will likely be sans the rat Reid.
Some things to remember post tomorrow:
A GOP house will see the takeover of leadership of all of the committees and subcommittees. Including ways and means. That means that Obamacare will be starved of funds and thus put in limbo until a GOP POTUS in 2012 can put a stake in its heart.
I’m no fan of boehner but he will be unable to act the RINO as the teaparty contingent will be a rod up his backside to not compromise with Obama.
Look for a lot of small targeted bills instead of the omnibus where the GOP can nickle and dime the POtus on items that he simply won’t be able to say no too without further dimming his reelection chances.
The remaining dem senators and house members will, as a group be much further to the left than the current batch. Expect them to become socialist echo chambers and they can keep Obama company on that score.
With control, expect several simultaneous hearings to begin investigating dozens of corruption cases – from acorn, to the SEIU, to climate change to stimulus spending. It will be a steady toxic drip on the dems and Obama – driving their popularity ever lower.
Expect the white house to be even more lethargic and out of touch with Emanuel gone and at least another dozen or so soon to leave. Sycophants that will sooth the towering ego and feed the maw that is obamas narcissistic self will make him even more aloof and imperious than he already is – as hard as that is to believe.
All in all the long road to recovery in America moves off the dirt path and onto the turnpike. Expect a huge uninterrupted rally in the markets for some time to come (barring a man-caused disaster).
Getting control of the house is a fait accompli. The senate I would give less than fifty percent chance of having a similar outcome BUT it will likely be sans the rat Reid.
Some things to remember post tomorrow:
A GOP house will see the takeover of leadership of all of the committees and subcommittees. Including ways and means. That means that Obamacare will be starved of funds and thus put in limbo until a GOP POTUS in 2012 can put a stake in its heart.
I’m no fan of boehner but he will be unable to act the RINO as the teaparty contingent will be a rod up his backside to not compromise with Obama.
Look for a lot of small targeted bills instead of the omnibus where the GOP can nickle and dime the POtus on items that he simply won’t be able to say no too without further dimming his reelection chances.
The remaining dem senators and house members will, as a group be much further to the left than the current batch. Expect them to become socialist echo chambers and they can keep Obama company on that score.
With control, expect several simultaneous hearings to begin investigating dozens of corruption cases – from acorn, to the SEIU, to climate change to stimulus spending. It will be a steady toxic drip on the dems and Obama – driving their popularity ever lower.
Expect the white house to be even more lethargic and out of touch with Emanuel gone and at least another dozen or so soon to leave. Sycophants that will sooth the towering ego and feed the maw that is obamas narcissistic self will make him even more aloof and imperious than he already is – as hard as that is to believe.
All in all the long road to recovery in America moves off the dirt path and onto the turnpike. Expect a huge uninterrupted rally in the markets for some time to come (barring a man-caused disaster).
It was interesting in 2006 to see Geo Bush offer up Donald Rumsfeld’s ‘head’ the day after the Republican’s lost the election. Doubt Obama will offer up any of his lackeys in such a manner. Thought it was rather disgraceful for Bush to do such, wonder what the behind the scenes deals were being made.
farmerboy1
[……It was interesting in 2006 to see Geo Bush offer up Donald Rumsfeld’s ‘head’ the day after the Republican’s lost the election. Doubt Obama will offer up any of his lackeys in such a manner……..]
Are you r…..”special”(current PC term)? Obozo has set a pattern of pushing his minions under the bus for less. This is SOP for lefties….executing generals, for defeat, was a common pattern for both the Nazi’s and the Soviets. They needed scapgoats just like Obozo does now.