Inside Ekos

Political Animal 94 Comments

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Region: East – West fracture now starts at the Ottawa River (CPC have an astonishing 22-point in Ontario); Alberta incensed.

Meaning Canadians are in the process of rejecting the propoganda of mainstream talking heads and pundits – perhaps for good. If you want the pulse of the nation, talk radio is where it’s at, baby. In all of this mess, they were the only ones who got it right.
View breakdown by region.
That sound you hear is the coalition forces splitting into four .

94 Replies to “Inside Ekos”

  1. The Ipsos breakdown is at Global National’s site. It is pretty astonishing. A majority want an election!

  3. The commentary about deep divisions in the country is a bit melodramatic. The Bloc numbers have barely moved. Sounds like political spin to me.

  5. John, I’d agree with you. The numbers are what they are, but I felt the conclusions were a bit of a stretch.
    Also, does anybody proof read this damn stuff? “CPC have an astonishing 22-point in Ontario”. This single sentence includes both improper grammar and a missing word: it should have read, “CPC -HAS- an astonishing 22-point -LEAD- in Ontario”.

  6. I see our northern cousins are going to be without a government for a couple of months. Great! How did you do that? Can you show your southern cousins how to get rid of government for a while?

  7. I wonder if Harper has blown his best chance to win a majority, if he could have gone straight to an election, I guess the strategy now is to force the vote on the budget in late January and if they lose there, to go to an election, but by then a lot of this passion will have subsided, and the Liberals may have shoved Dion off the plank. Oh well, we may never know … but 45% support for the CPC and the Ontario numbers in particular look unsustainable in any “return to business as usual” politics of 2009.
    Maybe Harper went in asking for the prorogation option expecting he would be told no it’s got to be an election after Monday’s vote, who knows?

  9. So much for Ontario being ground zero of economic discontent. Man, were the New Libs on the Bloc ever off-base with public sentiment. There goes their “it’s about the economy” argument.

  10. Of course Ontario is with the West. Think about it, in the last 60 some odd years we’ve had almost 50 years of Conservative government. Plus you got Bob Rae near the top of the Liberal government. That won’t help their prospects any in the most populous province in Canada.

  12. A majority want an election?
    I want an election too. I wonder if Harper mentioned this to Jean and she countered with prorogue.

  13. Being from Ontario I liked reading it this way
    “CPC have an astonishing 22-point in Ontario); Alberta incensed.”
    Meaning Alberta is incensed that it can no longer get away with calling Ontario voters congentially stupid. Looking at the results it looks like outside of Quebec (which is “special”) that belongs to Maritimers.
    Maybe the poll was taken before the flights from Ft McMurray had landed in St Johns.

  16. For a real laugh cheick out the attempted spin and disinformationin the conclusion of the CBC Ekos poll (in the PDF) that went horribly wrong.

  17. Stephen:
    Albertans know the fact that Ontario elected 51 Conservative MPs.
    We also know there’s a potential for 49 more. That’s more than enough for a majority without Quebec’s tail wagging the Canadian dog.
    Keep up the good work.

  18. The problem in Atlantic Canada, ward, is primarily in Nova Scotia, where Halifax is red-orange to the core. I think that tends to skew the numbers a bit. That the CPC is polling at 36.5 in Atlantic is very good actually.

  19. Yeah..but how long before the msm really GET IT? I want to see Don Newman choke on these numbers.

  20. Looks like the NDP might get some steam back to their coalition … they are running neck and neck with the Libs in BC according to the latest polls. Some even have NDP with slight lead.
    http://www.tyee.ca

  21. What on earth is wrong with Atlantic Canada?
    An excellent question. While the Liberals were embroiled in Adscam their support in Atlantic Canada increased.
    They have traditionally sold their votes to the highest bidder, and probably smelled payola being sent their way somewhere in those coalition shenanigans.
    There’s definitely something wrong with the political culture in Atlantic Canada – it’s at least as bad as Quebec’s. At least Quebec had the decency to be revolted by the Liberal corruption uncovered in Adscam.

  22. These numbers should be very sobering to the coalitionists. Hopefully this extended Christmas break will give them time to get over their “Harper Derangement Syndrone” for lack of a better term, and come back and work with the government to steer the country through this difficult time.
    Then again, maybe not. If you’ve heard Bob Rae and Jack Layton talking today.

  23. Ward, Harper explained what was wrong with Atlantic Canada, once. Google “culture of defeat”
    Doubt he will bring it up a second time. If there is anything folks detest more than the Bloc, it is the Truth.

  24. Interesting that the voters seem to be punishing the Libs and not the NDP, though even the NDPs numbers have dropped.
    But the NDP beating the Libs in B.C. and Saskatchewan/Manitoba? That’s really wild.
    The Liberals have committed mass suicide. But my give a damn’s busted.

  25. You guys should read the results on the Ipsos Reid poll. Ontario comes 2nd to Alberta as the most Consertive. Even ahead of BC and SK/MAN.
    Libs in big trouble if this is true. They still have 38 seats they could lose in Ontario.

  26. Ok I’m not a math whiz but how can a poll of 6 regions with the lowest margin of error of 4.1% end up with a National error of 2%?

  27. @ Speedy, because there are X number of people polled in each region (like 500) or so. That means each region separately has a higher MOE. But when you take all the regions together you have like 2,500 people polled so the MOE is a lot lower. Hence, regional MOE is higher than the national MOE.
    MOE = margin of error

  28. Here’s are two skull twisting questions for the MSM pundits, and the Liberals, and the Quebecois that realize their comfy lifestyle depends significantly on the resource revenues plundered from the West:
    – who is more likely to bluff about separating – but never carry through? A Quebecois? or an Albertan?
    – who is more likely to take action to separate? A Quebecois? or an Albertan?
    For bonus points and a chance at that trip for two to Lachine, just what kind of a hissy fit does Quebec have up its sleeve that could force Alberta not to leave Confederation once pushed too far?
    Lastly, having lost its Albertan oil and gas host, where might a parasitic “nation” go for its next fix of socialist funding to keep its aging population in the style to which it has become accustomed?

  29. The problem with Atlantic Canada is the same problem with all have-not provinces, that there are more parliamentary seats for fewer population numbers. Example; PEI has a seat in Ottawa for every 40 thousand population while in BC there is a seat for every 106 thousand population. So what happens is akin to Oliver Twist and the ‘can I have some more’ scenario, but I do love the Maritimers.

  30. Those numbers leave me speechless, especially Ontario, the bastion of braindead Liberalism for decades……but so was Quebec at one time.
    As for BC? Well, the union lifestylers are diehards, and they’ll vote NDP for a vacant candidate (in Gary Lunn’s riding, the candidate withdrew in disgrace thanks to his naked antics at a summer camp years before) The NDP still garnered several thousand votes.
    Give one thing to the typical dipper, they are loyal to a fault, and faulty they are. There is no logical thought there. Even Glen Clark had diehard supporters in his days of disgrace.

  31. Assuming the Rae/Layton conspiracy succeeds at the end of January though, how do we ensure we get an election?

  32. This guy doesn’t seem to buy the MSM propaganda.
    Lifted off of wk’s blog;
    [ What frightens me is that Harper may have got the attack ads right. A coffee shop survey Thursday afternoon shows that rural Ontario is still stuck on, “What’d’ya mean, political parties get money?” and “The Liberals have signed a deal with the Separatists.” Absolutely no one seems to understand the precedent set by suspending Parliament. It is really scary, out there on the hustings.
    Jennifer Bunting]

  33. I find the first question interesting, for this poll is manipulative; it utterly ignores that this coalition is not two parties, the NDP and Liberals, who don’t have the seats in the House to form a coalition.
    It’s a three party coalition, and relies totally on the Bloc’s role as Kingmaker. This poll never once mentioned this vital fact – that the Bloc is an integral, and I mean integral part of the operating structure of this coalition. The coalition cannot operate for one day without the Bloc’s approval. Nothing happens in this coalition’s government, without the Bloc. Now, that’s quite the democracy.

  34. Hi Sheila,
    I have a particular theory about why the NDP vote didn’t suffer. Most NDP voters are True Believers – e.g. business is bad, free enterprise is bad, the rich are thugs who we must claw things back from, and ultimately history has shown us time after time that many of them don’t really believe in democracy.
    So for them, there was pretty much nothing that Layton could do that would change their minds at all. After all, since Stephen Harper is really Lucifer with a Canadian passport, why on earth would it ever be wrong to fight the devil in whatever way you can?! 🙂
    Liberals, at least many of the Liberals that I know, are much more moderate and reasonable.
    What do you think?

  35. Ron
    They are dedicated to the cause, so no amount of logic will get in their way to seize power.
    No matter how much of an idiot Dion is, no matter how arrogant and self-serving Jacko is, no matter that it takes the separatists on board to justify it (“They’re Canadians too!”), all that matters to the hard left is power, and getting their hands on the purse strings.
    The cause is to go hell bent for leather into debt, then tax the crap out of whatever business’ are managing to keep afloat in the slowdown. As far as Jack’s concerned, those evil job creating businesses are hoarding millions of dollars away from his ‘greater good’.
    Layton is so shallow. He whines and snivels over ‘pensions losing value’, yet he wants to attack the very businesses in which his own members pensions funds are invested in.
    Layton, a self-serving twit!

  37. Ha, Ha! Dan, I see you’re also from BC, like me. In Vancouver too? And we have exactly the same thesis!
    I often tell people elsewhere in North America that I live on Canada’s Left Coast. While the people out here look normal, it really is a psychological freak show when you talk with many of them about politics.

  38. The stats, while interesting, are of course, fluid in nature, and I suspect not entirely free of bias. What is interesting, is the brilliance of Harper. He has effectively neutered the coalition before it can bear crap fruit. Im sure he was entirely aware of this pending power grab, and has effectivly played his cards, the result of which is the enivitable dimise of the crap heads attack. He has given the opposition parties what they wanted. A reason to try and take him down. And that was his calculation. Brillant. Its election time folks and if the numbers are true perhaps we can get a majority!

  41. Democracy is very much alive and well when we common people across the country haven’t bought into the Anything-But-Harper media-university pundit hype. Let’s now never forget, when the next election is called, sooner rather than later, we will be voting, not the traditional NDP-Liberal-PQ-CPC, we will be voting Coalition/Anything But Coalition.

  43. Robert
    No, I’m in the bastion of leftard thinking, Victoria. Needless to say, at work, I have to keep my opinion low key, lest the unionists around me wouldn’t recognize my presence, unless I was in the way for a cup of coffee.
    I am resigned to the groupthink that epitomizes the typical NDP’er. There is no rational thought there. They could trot out Bob Skelly again, Cheetah, or Ed the Horse, and there would still be that hardcore 25% support

  44. Looks like we’ve got national unity problems again. Clearly, the catalyst for this was the Leftist Libs, NDP, Bloc and Greens. If the Leftists ever actually usurp the government, then Confederation will be in danger like never before. This sort of stuff they’re trying to pull is, to put it plainly, un-Canadian. They are against Canadian values.
    Well, I was bloody busy with work today, but I’ve put together my latest related musings based on today’s developments:
    http://thecanadiansentinel.blogspot.com/2008/12/leftist-opposition-terrifies-most.html

  45. I have a theory that reinforces why Harper must be vigilant:
    There is a huge economic downturn all over the world. Bob Rae and the Liberals are really puppets of multinational power brokers such as PowerCorp where his brother John is the VP, Maurine Strong the “father” of Kyoto is so close to Bob Rae he calls him Uncle Mo and Chreitne, Martin, PowerCorp, Strong et al all have maga maga millions if not billions invested all over the world but especially China.
    I believe that Canadian taxpayers through successive governments, including Clark and Mulroney since Trudeau have been the “grease” shall we say for these power brokers to gain influence, inside information, contracts, just outright stolen or absconded with funds.
    With their funds drying up and Canada’s honey pot taken away from their grasp for the past three years under Harper they are now getting even more dangerous and the plotting to get back their power will get even more sinister that what we saw this week.
    I believe Bob Rae is their current political front man. Note, also, that the government is getting ready to spend 33 BILLION on infrastructure in the next 5 years. That’s big bucks for those who get the contracts and also for unions.
    They NEED insiders at Public Works like they had for years until AdScam and Harper to get their hands on this gravy train by any method possible.
    Note – the coalition was going to esconce Denis Coderre as Minister of Public Works.
    I think Scott Reid’s “Kill Harper. Kill him dead” was more than just disgusting rhetoric.
    Anybody else want to help connect the dots?

  46. I wonder if the Liberal Brain Trust had “an out” figured somewhere for when this “plan” of theirs hits the fan in Ontario…
    I read the list of potential ministers today in the National Post…
    wow. Industry Minister Jack… just wow.
    I’ve got nothin’ on that.

  47. Sammy: “I want to see Don Newman choke on these numbers.”
    Well, I’m-Peter-Mansbridge-and-you’re-not just brushed them off, or at least he tried to make light of them. He didn’t get away with it, however. Andrew Coyne and Chantal Hebert pointed out the real missteps of the Coalition, while Alan Gregg (what a toady he is; I think he’s feeling the fire to his feet if the CPC wins a majority) did his best to downplay them.
    Well, guys in the MSM. Go ahead and try to spin this to the advantage of the Libs, your party of choice. It just isn’t working. I think you may soon begin to get it–and, if you don’t, we, the people, will continue to remind you.

  48. Compare that poll to this:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_election_2008#Results_by_province
    Although unfortunately some results in the poll are consolidated, the differences in Alberta and Ontario are shocking.
    No doubt the lone NDP seat in Alberta would go to the cons if an election was held today.
    Sask and Mb probably wouldn’t change much, I’m going to say maybe one seat would come our way.
    Maybe one or two in BC/territories.
    One would have to look at the last election, how many close seats there were.
    So we have maybe 3 seats gained in the west, we’d need 9 more in the east, preferrably all in Ontario. One has to note the significant shift towards the conservatives, but not only that some vote splitting going to the greens.
    9-10 seats gained in Ontario? It’s certainly possible.
    Quebec I don’t see anything gained, and the “far east” is hard to tell, given the consolidation.

  49. I have a question: If in January Jack and Gill and Dion force a showdown and bring down the gov’t, and the GG elects to go for another election, what happens to the coalition? Will they run together as one progressive party? Or will their historical prejudices come to the fore and force them to run as separate entities? If they all run as a single progressive party, then all of the Liberal and NDP MPs, by default, become separatists. Correct? If not as a coalition, the credibility of the Liberals and the NDP will tank with most Canadians. Correct? In my simple mind I think that this deal with the devil has the potential of destroying the Liberals for a very long time, no matter which way they turn. Proroguing (is that like Perogies??) Parliament and getting on with governing in January however may be the saving grace for the Liberal Party. No matter what happens though, the NDP are toast due to Layton’s deal with the devil. Canadians will never forget Layton’s brokering skills. Kind of reminds me of the old children’s rhyme:
    Jack and Gill went up the hill
    To fetch a pail of water
    Jack fell down and broke his crown
    Dion came stumbling after.
    Or something like that!
    Jaymo

  50. No one should be surprised at the Ontario numbers. Toronto have many immigrants that have lived through coups. This probably scared the hell out of them. To think it could happen in Canada probably woke them all up, and I bet they will remember this for some time.

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