Those deniers just won’t let it go…
The strong effect of cloud processes on model sensitivities to greenhouse gases was emphasized further through a now-classic set of General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments, carried out by Senior and Mitchell (1993). They produced global surface temperature changes (due to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration) ranging from 1.9°C to 5.4°C, simply by altering the way that cloud radiative properties were treated in the model. It is somewhat unsettling that the results of a complex climate model can be so drastically altered by substituting one reasonable cloud parameterization for another, thereby approximately replicating the overall inter-model range of sensitivities.
IPCC AR4 overview of the history of climate change science, cloud modeling and climate sensitivity. (More commentary at the link).
(Related: For those who want to do their part)
It’s mathematicians and programmers doing these computer models
The rise and now dominance of computers and software in engineering seems to be now taking its toll on critical thinking and creativity.
As “old school” draftsmen/designers, we were taught strict rules when it came to communicating and committing ideas to paper because we didn’t have an “undo” button back then.
Not to sound like an old fart or anything, but now it seems like we have a lot of competent computer operators who have relatively little knowledge about what they are actually accomplishing – it’s just a button-pushing job.
And I’m no luddite – I keep up to date with the latest software tools to do actual, productive work using 3D CAD and visualization. It just seems to me that a lot of common sense has been lost in the “translation to digital”. In many ways what can be done is limited by what the software can do and individual creativity is stifled by its never-ending shortcomings (after all, there has to be a reason to buy the next version, right?).
Piper, I agree. I think I am part of the last generation who actually used slide-rules. While it now gathers dust in my office I believe it did teach me a little about what to expect from an equation and to think about whether my numbers were reasonable.