Hong Kong

Related, from Michael Yon.

Strategic Elegance: “Home Depot says suppliers are moving manufacturing out of China to avoid tariffs”
 
Some of the jobs probably moving to countries like Taiwan and Vietnam.
 
Think about this for a moment:
 
1) China loses jobs, and thus economic clout and expansion money. Some Chinese workers likely become unemployed…while China is having some food supply problems (true extent unknown to me).
 
2) Chinese jobs move to other countries that we can get along great with, such as Taiwan. Taiwan grows economy, becomes tighter with USA, and buys US goods (including weapons) as economy increases. US weapons can be used to blunt China’s false claims in Taiwan.
 
3) Taiwan and others buying more US goods (including weapons) increases American jobs and economy, which helps fund “the wall.”
 
Win win win for the good guys and gals. Lose lose lose for CCP.
 
Hold strong Hong Kong! Hong Kong does not have to beat CCP — only outlive.

And more, from Steve Bannon.

31 Replies to “Hong Kong”

  1. If true – that mainland army troops are on the island – I agree with Tom Cotton that it is a massive miscalculation on the part of the PRC.

    Again, if true, where we go from here is unknown. But today may in time be seen as an important date in an a series of events that could amount to something very very big.

  2. Again, if true, where we go from here is unknown.

    No, it isn’t. It’s clear that Xi wants to teach HK a lesson it will never forget. He is now, after all, the self-appointed emperor of China and wouldn’t mind out-Maoing Mao.

    His plan would be to put HK in its place, namely as a subservient vassal, and then use that to threaten Taiwan. (“Taiwan! See what I did to Hong Kong? If you do not submit to my rule, you’re next!”)

    I think Xi put his foot in it. In order to save face, he’s going to have to follow through, but he will have to tread very carefully. China right now is a powderkeg ready to go off. There are enough people and ethnic groups that have an axe to grind against Beijing that the country could easily collapse into civil war. Any blunder in HK would be just what’s needed for that to happen.

    1. BA Taiwan like S korea and JA Pan needs only a couple of years to build nukes which they have the capability to do, and china knows this an probably hopes they won’t So No nobody knows the fallout of this
      ++

  3. Collapse of CCP from current scattered dissident movements? I can’t imagine that being the outcome. The fall of Chinese communism is decades away and might only ever occur as a result of a large and very destructive regional war.

    Would love to be wrong about that, being no fan of communism, but the vast majority in China are docile servants of this regime. They probably hear very little of what’s actually going on in these outlying areas. If anyone thinks that Hong Kong, Tibet and Sinkiang would somehow form the nucleus of an alternative government, better check available military resources and population totals.

    1. you mr O’Donnell, are correct.
      chirer has NEVER in 4,000 years had a day resembling genuine democracy, that interesting phenom where the majority act in the BENEFICIAL interests of the majority. ie freedom of expression, religion, movement etc.

      not
      one
      single
      day.

      reform in chirer will have to come from outside, if that includes a devastating 2nd civil war (or is it 3rd? 4th? 5th?) this time with nukes aimed internally, well that too is in the cards.
      the reform part will happen after the violence and death subsides. perhaps courtesy chirese expatriates.
      like any given typical war in the past.

      surveillance technology is assisting the xi regime to hang on hang hang on by ‘nipping it in the bud’ tactic.
      aka when you know EVERYTHING that is happening, its *real easy* to move the state’s enforcers to areas of unrest and
      ‘nip it in the bud’ and likewise make a big splashy ‘example’ of ‘what happens to dissidents’.
      otoh, when things get soooooo bad THAT strategy is insufficient, well, the explosion is just that much worse.

    2. You’re right about the vast majority, but…. They have been programmed and indoctrinated into the greatness of China via the CCP. Many have bought into it. The problem is the many millions who have not. The free thinkers.

      However, there are restive elements, minority groups who do not have the same rights and opportunities as the Han majority. These are restive because they are discriminated against in every area of their lives. Then you have those Han who are restive because they are free thinkers and are denied opportunities because they are known not to be Communist. They sit back and watch as the less deserving party hacks get promotions and sweet opportunities that should be theirs. There are those with grievances, the forced abortions, the lost jobs, and so on. China is held together by force and the party unity schtick is thin.

  4. The time is coming for the protestors to stop and go into sleep mode before they are turned off permanently. They will achieve more in the future but will achieve nothing if they are dead.

  5. Xi has a timetable for this and some other stuff.

    Chinese demographics are one of the drivers: think – “one child family” and traditional preference for male heirs.

    This is a potential monster in the next twenty years. Add to that the “modern, educated and liberated” Chinese women who are seeking husbands, (and lives) “offshore”. The over-abundance of “little emperors” seems to be losing its attraction for them.

    So, what is a latter-day emperor to do with over twenty million, horny, unmarriageable, military-age (and trained) young men? Before they realize en masse what has been done to them and the country.

    The other stuff?

    Firstly, it is an age old Chinese tradition that ALL must pay tribute to the emperor. The trick has always been “making it stick”.

    Secondly, as per the old Vietnamese saying: “The emperor’s rule stops at he village gate”.

    “Lebensraum” with a twist? See also: “buffer-zones”, “fraternal partners” and all the other interesting euphemisms for political / cultural shenanigans. (BRI?).

    The caper in the South China Sea is almost a sideshow now. Check out the list of ports around the globe that are under Chinese “management” or outright ownership. Trincomalee, Cape Town, Darwin, San Diego……Did someone mention the Panama Canal?…..

    Gee……What could it all mean?

    1. China has long had the belief that it is the supreme nation. Under Xi, that is being asserted once again.

      1. The Han Chinese seem to have forgotten the Hsuing Nu, the Khitans the Jurchids, the Manchus, and of course the folks from the north – the Mongols.

    2. Xi’s time table:

      1.Long term – let a particularly sad and ugly nature take its course unopposed

      – “According to ABC News, a recent Gallup survey discovered that 58 percent of U.S. adults under the age of 35 believe that some version of socialism “would be good for the country”….”

      -“In 2013, China was the top source country for permanent residency in Canada, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

      Immigration lawyer Richard Kurland says the move to open more visa offices in China will eventually yield the desired results.

      “Having more Canadian visa entry points in China by multiplying the number of application centres will undoubtedly facilitate visa issuance, and give faster service to larger numbers of people.”

      2. Short term – hope your ideological brethren/well-compensated stooges get elected/re-elected

      – “Creepy uncle Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, accepted a big, fat check from the Chinese government – allowing his father to evade disclosing a $1 billion private equity deal with China.”

      – “The Liberal leader was asked which nation he admired most. He responded: “There’s a level of admiration I actually have for China. Their basic dictatorship is actually allowing them to turn their economy around on a dime.”

      – “Trudeau defends fundraiser with Chinese businessman who later donated $200,000 to father’s foundation”

  6. The problem with a Chinese Civil War is that, while satisfying, an hour later you just want to do it all over again.

  7. Washington DC shuts down at 3 pm EDT Friday (3 am Saturday in Hong Kong) for a long Labor Day weekend. The important people are already checked out mentally today. Add in the distraction of Hurricane Dorian, back to school, etc., and China hopes America is distracted.

    China may decide that now is the time to crush the Hong Kong demonstrators with a mailed fist show of force. Troops on every corner; Police hauling dissidents away to Mainland China; Communications blacked out. The Chinese Communist Party may think; Do it now, and by the time America gets back to work Tuesday morning (Tuesday Evening HK time), the World and Washington DC are presented with a fait accompli. The Chinese have already miscalculated on Trump, the protests, and everything else.

    I don’t think the protesters will back down. What happens if the Peoples Armed Police and/or the PLA kills a few people, or a few thousand people? What happens if even a few protesters fight back in a very dense urban environment? What happens if 10% or 20% of HK fight back? Tanks are formidable, but Molotov cocktails and bricks from 10 stories up are also formidable. The poorly armed Jews of the Warsaw Ghetto held out for weeks against the Nazi Army. They were finally defeated and essentially exterminated; and a ruthless Chinese Communist Party and PLA may be able to do the same to the millions of Hong Kong; but that is the end of the Chinese International Trade. Obviously it is also the end of Hong Kong as the third largest financial capital. I don’t know what will happen. I wonder if the Chinese Communist Party does?

    Things are going to get very interesting. Even if nothing happens in Hong Kong.

    1. Trump has promised to destroy China via trade if Xi goes TianAnMen on HK. China cannot afford to test Trump because he has shown a willingness to fight.

      1. And he will have the support of the sane Democrats like Schmucky Schumer and the sane NeverTrumpers like Marco Rubio.

        Need a new phone? Buy it now.
        If you need any Chinese made products, buy them now.

        Remember that PDT Tweet about “hereby ordered to stop doing business in China?” It was not aimed at the US Companies, it was aimed at President Xi and China. PDT was saying, “I have the power to wreck your economy in the name of national security.”

        1. UnDork you keep babbling stupid wen you have NO idea how things work. Trump is a lot smarter then you are or ever will be, and china will go down in flames long before USA

  8. truly.
    I REALLY hope this pans out in Taiwan’s favour economically, and they use some of those Billions ‘wit a B’ to clandestinely pay the Israelis to build some nukes and the means, ie aircraft, to deploy them or better yet adapt some missiles from India or whatever.
    m’kay beijing? wanna play hardball now? one guarantee is YOU will be hit by no less than 10 of them in the oh, say 6 digit kton range.
    (the trick is to, at the correct point in time, let it ‘leak’ that the capability is now in place)
    nuclear deterrence. I *still* am astonished the irony of nuclear deterrence. the exceptionally unique FACT that *because you have the capability of raining incomprehensible devastaion on the enemy
    is
    the
    very
    REASON
    it
    never
    happens*.
    migawd. so ironic, and SO effective.

    my late father-in-law was a HK cop in the 50s.
    he got a medal for singlehandedly quashing a communist inspired riot.

    how things have changed with hk cops now eh?
    another example of ‘cops are tops’ eh?

  9. This is Tienanmen Square all over again.

    The West can stop trading with the Chinese and treat them like the dictatorial pariahs they are or they could do what they did after the Tienanmen Square massacre and buy their poisoned dog biscuits.

  10. For the last few days posting has been getting tricky. If anyone else is noticing please let me know. I have been banned and spammed on many sites and often wonder just what is happening. I was politically active long before computers were available and will be after I have been banned from every site. There is more than one medium of communication.

  11. Just as America’s ante bellum period lasted from 1788 to 1860, while ye ole USSR held sway from 1917 to 1989, so Hsi’s New Mandarinate is due for generational comeuppance 72 years from Mao’s ChiCom takeover in late 1949, that is late 2021 when Trump-sponsored fair-trade competition renders Peking’s wily Grand Theft dirigiste pretensions null-and-void.

    Even in Marxisants’ 19th Century origami phase, “Communism” (sic) was nothing but a death-eating [Thanatist] Cargo Cult, talent-less would-be rentiers’ excuse to dine out under auspices of hate-mongering, parasitic, grand mal psychopathic despots. Infantile-regressive to the core, highchair-banging Socialism by whatever name is not an ideology but a psychogenic attitude born of Eric Hoffer’s “irreparably spoiled selves” (The True Believer, 1951). As said in other contexts: “If you meet Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mao upon the highroad– kill him”; then call home, where grateful Dad and Mom will pardon you.

    We do wish Hong Kong well. But should Hsi’s swarming minions throttle all-and-sundry, drive the Middle Kingdom’s uniquely entrepreneurial, innovative City State to ChiComs’ accustomed wrack-and-ruin, odds are that Peking’s New Mandarinate will not be far behind.

  12. That chain of events is a sixth-grader’s economics analysis. The US isn’t getting richer from this, it’s getting poorer. A key manufacturing index has contracted for the first time since 2008. China can and will sell to other parts of the world-not that it needs to. China’s economy is not ‘export based’; no one’s is. At the end of the day, China will still be the biggest market the world has ever known.

    1. Nope you just got all your economic knowledge from Econ 105 and never progressed beyond that. Only so much can be expected from a university that gives Masters of Science to students who believe mooselimbs invented calculus.

  13. Bannon is wrong, the CCP will not collapse if there is a Tiananmen Square event in HK.
    Mainland Chinese won’t give a damn if HK residents are killed, they’ll move in to fill any vacuum formed.
    Because life in HK would still be better than the mainland.
    Mark my words.

    1. Agreed. Mainland Chicoms will cheerfully support the crackdown. After decades of communism and communist rationed consumerism they become a nation of brainwashed slaves. They react with hostility to others demanding freedom. They have no sympathy towards HK, indeed they demand a right to settle in HK and grab as much for themselves before others do it before them. To them HK is what Western World to turd worlders.

      1. Probably more true than not. A very small fraction of a percent of people in China have access to outside information. Never underestimate that or what the CCP can do with it. And beyond that, few care. They’ve always been told what to think by others “better than them”, and they have no reason to change. There are monolithic cultural imperatives that we just cannot fathom as westerners. I work with a large number of Chinese daily, and I see it fairly constantly: they have trouble thinking with flexibility about any issue, and creative problem-solving is usually beyond them.

        1. True, when it comes to capacity for independent thought there is a world of difference between Chinese from Macao or HK and the recent arrivals from mainland China. I can hardly blame those trapped in HK for rejecting everything mainland. Reminds me of life in Poland during the Cold War and our daily rejection of everything Russian, parallels aplenty.

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