20 Replies to “Economists Are Like Weathermen”

  1. Or the growth is growth. That we are seeing real improvement in productivity that while straining some resources (skilled workers in the US) that inflationary pressure is being offset by deflation in others.

    How long this will go on is a good question.

  2. Hey, I am an economist!

    Actually, much of the lack inflation has to do with slowing worldwide economic growth. I believe in the “macroeconomic stagnation hypothesis” — which states that the world is slowly becoming like Europe and Japan (both have very low inflation and long, 10-year interest rates). The majority of economists last year thought that monetary tightening would bring on higher short- and long- interest rates. They are bring proven wrong.

    What is the result of stagnation? One thing is that, with low interest rates, we will see more stock market and real estate asset bubbles. This means the rich get richer. And with unrestricted immigration of unskilled, uneducated people, wages for the unskilled will remain low. So low interest rates and unrestricted immigraton guarantee a worsening of our income gap. This is the brave new world we face: slow economic growth and increased income disparity.

    1. The way they calculate “inflation” is so contrived, it can say whatever they want it to say. Your own comment talks about the bubbles in the stack market and real estate, but none of that makes it into the “Inflation” calculations. Fiat money goes to the privileged of the State, and then into the most profitable thing available (i.e., stocks a real estate). Does anybody really think Wall Street Banksters and their political patrons, are going to increase the prices of common things by buy massive amounts of gasoline, groceries or domestic servants? They buy capital with their fiat largesse, and the prices reflect it.

      Macro-economics is a joke. It’s a tool created by the academic clerisy to support the dogma of Statist intervention by political and economic cronies. It was true 100 years ago, and it’s true today.

  3. We do have high inflation. We are measuring it wrong. Measure inflation, not by how much wages go up but, by how much of your paycheck the government takes. The inflation rate is high.

    Look at the price of gas.
    The cost of insurance.
    Municipal taxes.
    The cost of a mortgage in dollars not percent.
    Cost of electricity.
    Food.
    My dishwasher broke twice in 4 years. $350 each repair. The repairman said they just don’t make them like they used to. That – cheaper design – is a form of inflation.

    The inflation rate is high. We’re just measuring it wrong.

    1. well said Steve, and there is also the factor of an ever expanding underground ‘cash” economy. I was in Greece a few years ago, and it was interesting to watch the people manipulate things:-)))

    2. This makes total sense, and Gary’s addition. But then, I’m not an economist. 🙂

    3. Measure inflation, not by how much wages go up but, by how much of your paycheck the government takes.

      True.

      OTOH, cars are cheaper, gas is cheaper than it was 10 years ago. Bandwidth is cheaper, as are electronic items, though they last less. Newspaper content is free if you are online. University education is cheaper if you learn online. Meetings cost less if you skype.

      Best of all, quality blogs like SDA are still accessible without costing you a dime.

  4. F*** inflation. In Canada, probably the US as well, the housing industry is a huge economic driver that must have an ever-growing population. Seeing as Canada’s birth rate is below replacement rate, this driver needs massive immigration.
    David Murrell and his boyz should find a ‘successful’ model based on a static-steady population. I’ve read nothing but disparaging things about Japan but at least they don’t have barbarians at the gate swung wide open by a twit and his tweet.
    And anyone who is on board with a 100 million population should be hanged, drawn and quartered.

    1. I am with Buddy on this….totally..!!
      Hanged on a Meathook from a Bank Street lampost…ala Nicolae…

  5. Just to give you an idea of government charges for my son’s upcoming flight to LA.

    CHARGES
    Air Transportation Charges
    Base Fare
    $388.00 CAD
    Taxes, Fees and Charges
    United States – September 11th Security Fee(Passenger Civil Aviation Security Service Fee) (AY)
    $14.60 CAD
    Canada – Air Travellers Security Charge (CA)
    $12.10 CAD
    Canada – Harmonized Sales Tax (RC)
    $3.25 CAD
    Canada – Airport Improvement Fee (AIF) (SQ)
    $25.00 CAD
    United States – Transportation Tax (US)
    $47.80 CAD
    United States – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service Fee (APHIS User Fee – Passengers (XA)
    $5.20 CAD
    United States – Passenger Facility Charge (XF)
    $5.90 CAD
    Canada – Goods and Services Tax (GST) (XG)
    $20.01 CAD
    United States – Immigration and Naturalization Fee(Immigration User Fee) (XY)
    $9.10 CAD
    United States – Custom User Fee (YC)
    $7.50 CAD
    TICKET AMOUNT $538.46 CAD

  6. Alexandria Ocasio-Chavez says they can simply print more money, it works for Venezuela, that’s “modern monetary theory”.

    But she could use her power right now to take Oprah Winfrey’s money and buy every American lunch at McDonalds once, her wealth works out to just under ten bucks for every American.

    Perhaps even the children steeped in ignorance from Kindergarten to PhD could potentially understand that there aren’t enough billionaires to eat when it’s explained so simply?

  7. “Per Buffett, deficit hawks have preached doom for decades. They have never been proven correct.”

    You might want to end that with…..yet!

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