25 Replies to “Master Predictor”

  2. As much as I like stories about kittens … President Trump’s move to mobilize the EPA to FIX Flint Michigans water “problem” … PROVES that President Trump knows the difference between Pollution and Co2. Ironically (or not) Jerry Brown is traveling to Wash D.C. to beg for Federal funds to help fight “pollution” in CA. Sadly, Jerry’s drug-addled brain has confused Co2 with Pollution. Jerry lectured President Trump that his CUTS to the global warming charade is an “unconscionable license for industry to pollute”. Sorry Jerry … President Trump … and the people who elected him … know FULL WELL the difference between POLLUTION and bullshit. Co2 as a pollutant is bullshittftt. Go home Jerry. Go home and FIX your Dam (That Pres. Trump already funded through acceptance of the declaration of disaster). Wake up Jerry … We the People and our president are cleaning up the polluted mess left behind by the last global Warmist administration.

  3. Flint was the home of GM’s Buick line of cars for decades. I believe Chevrolets were also built there.
    There was a famous GM sit down strike in Flint in 1939, a move that led to the formation of the UAW (United Auto Workers) in Detroit. Do we need to discuss what the UAW did to cities like Flint, Detroit, Saginaw etc.?? I don’t think so.
    In the 50s and 60s, GM, Ford and Chrysler dominated the auto scene in North America. However, constant strikes and labour problems plagued them all. In 1965, my Dad worked for a Chevrolet dealership. The cars were shipped from Oshawa, Detroit etc, via CNR. Dad was mechanic, they were unloading a new 66 Chevrolet Caprice late in the fall. It wouldn’t engage in drive, so Dad went over the unloading site and found the control rod had fallen off during transit. On the way to garage, the u-bolts that held the rear U-Joint on the differential let go, they hadn’t been torqued at the factory. Imagine the disaster had that happened at 60 MPH. Dad swore that had been done on purpose by ”those unionized co*&%$+*&ers from the East.” It was a pathetic shame how some of the cars were assembled.
    In the late 70’s and early 80’s when the Japanese invasion took place, workmanship improved at Ford, GM and Chrysler, however the damage had been done. Plants moved to Mexico, parts were manufactured abroad. Assembly plants are OK, however they don’t measure up to building starters, alternators, transmissions, windshields and hundreds of other components now built in foreign places. Especially when we have people like Trudeau, Wynne and Notley who are causing electrical rates to skyrocket while China and India are constructing power plants that are lowering their energy prices.
    Will Trump and Co. repair what took 50 years to destroy?? I have a hard time with that. Could Levis start making ”Made in USA Button Jeans” that compete with Asian made examples that sell for $16.00?? I doubt it. I do however wish them luck.

  4. Your last paragraph points out the general problem a first world country will have in a world economy when the third world can compete in quality.
    How does a country deal with that? The traditional way is through a tariff. In the case of Japan, through our magnanimity in trying to rebuild the Japanese economy, it was always a one way street. (They impose tariff on our rice, for example, but we don’t on their cars.) We never recognized that Japan was now a competitor. In the 60’s, Japan’s calling card was smaller cars, which was a second factor in why their cars were cheaper. Would anyone have bought a Toyota rather than a Chevy then if they cost the same? Hardly. But we eschewed the tariff, so a Chevy costed more. Okay, in the booming economy that was the 50’s, it may not have mattered. Up came the AAA, National Safety Council, Consumer Report, etc. with their phony crash tests. Even then, before they invented the CO2 scare, they still wanted cars to burn less gas, so they really pushed smaller cars. That meant pushing Japanese cars instead of American cars. They invented this one test that purported to prove smaller cars were just as safe. It was a lie but many people bought into that.
    The crash test was having a vehicle crash into a (theoretically) unmovable wall at the same speed, say 20 mph. They assess the damage and declared which car was safer. Well, by Newton’s Third Law, that test is the same as if two Toyotas were crashing head-on each at 10 mph, and two Chevys were crashing head-on at 10 mph. Of course the damages to the Toyotas would be less, but it meant nothing. To really assess the safety, they would have a Toyota crashing into a Chevy. We all know what would happen, but they never did that, of course. If you want real assessment, you look at the actuary reports. And there were no counter-intuitive surprises there. That was my pet peeve, but I just couldn’t convince people, because most people just blank out on physics, even high school physics.
    That was when I realized that you couldn’t trust the government and the experts, because they may have hidden agendas. This was one case where I understood all the factors, and they were clearly wrong. What about all those other cases where I did not?
    That was why Japanese cars made their inroad. Yes, the exorbitant union demands made production costs much higher. The smaller Japanese cars made their material cost much lower. There were no tariffs on the Japanese cars. And the government and its experts pushed the smaller cars on the public. And the American manufacturers did not start making smaller cars until the horse was out of the barn.
    I kind of digressed, but yes, labor costs are a big factor in a first world country. A worker in Mexico can be paid much less and still have the same life style. (In fact, a Japanese car worker in the fifties hardly had the same. But their culture made him accept that was the right condition for someone in his station in life.) Instead of protecting the workers with our superior expertise and workmanship, our manufacturers betray the workers by opening factories overseas and giving away as much expertise as necessary to make the product. Even high tech jobs are not immune. A lot of tech support calls are actually answered in India. And frankly, you’d be uncommonly lucky to really get tech support because you can actually understand what they are saying. And as the owners get richer, the economy gets worse, and the Democratic government betray what is supposed to be its base. And that is why so many of the ultra rich are liberal.
    What gives Trump a fighting chance, ironically, is the fact that the wage gap is closing. Manufacturers can make a profit here, but perhaps less. As president, Trump can give them incentives for moving factories back to the U.S. It’s a hard and long road back, but if he is to succeed, we all have to help him. What made America great was good old Yankee know-how and the Puritanical work ethic. The American education system has tried its best to destroy that, but I am surprised at how much of that still survive. The workers getting the jobs again must find those qualities again, so that made in the U.S.A. is a proud declaration of quality, not a plea for support.

  5. Contaminated water is bad, but it’s worse when ignorant people poison themselves willingly.
    The chemicals in dryer sheets and fabric softeners are considered to be among the most toxic household chemicals. …Lingering chemical residues in the clothes enter the body through the skin, which is tantamount to eating them! Many of these compounds are solvents that directly affect the nervous system and endocrine system and can contribute to the development of chronic illness. …Unfortunately, most people are unaware of this issue because their constant exposure to these chemicals makes it impossible for them to realize the impact it makes on their health. Not to mention the health of those around them! … these chemicals are accompanying you day and night through your skin and your lungs as you wear your clothes and sleep in your sheets. That’s why fabric softeners, dryer sheets and laundry detergent with fragrance are such dangerous health risks.
    Each product emitted 1–8 toxic or hazardous chemicals, and close to half (44%) generated at least 1 of 24 carcinogenic hazardous air pollutants, such as acetaldehyde, 1,4-dioxane, formaldehyde, or methylene chloride. These hazardous air pollutants have no safe exposure level…. The Consumer Product Safety Commission, which regulates cleaning supplies, air fresheners, and laundry products, currently does not require manufacturers to disclose any ingredients on the label, including fragrances in these products.
    Why would someone think a factory owner in China gives a shít about your health; China will continue to churn out toxic products and fools will continue to consume them. So why should the two out of five Canadians who will develop cancer, then expect the taxpayers to spend hundreds of thousands to prolong their ignorant life by a few months? People were warned, but ‘knew better’ and ignored the risks.
    https://branchbasics.com/blog/2015/01/12-toxic-chemicals-in-dryer-sheets-fabric-softeners/

  6. I think the fear of chemicals is overblown. My father worked as a printer for 40+ years and was exposed to all sorts of chemicals. Still healthy as a horse at 86.

  7. genetics will out. I hope to have enough of my ancestors genes. most lived into their late 80’s and 90’s. my mother is still going at 97.

  8. Mohammed’s cult of death.
    …-
    “‘I am here to die for Allah’: Paris attacker” (sun)
    …-
    “Jihad Report
    Mar 11, 2017 –
    Mar 17, 2017
    Attacks 38
    Killed 286
    Injured 391
    Suicide Blasts 11
    Countries 13”
    http://thereligionofpeace.com/

  9. Great, now the local democratic government can utterly mismanage the aid money. But, no worries, more aid will come. Rinse and repeat.

  12. A big problem for places like Flint is that former high wage union environments yield an entitlement mentality which persists well after the factory gates are shut. If the federal government has to come in to provide basic safe drinking water, like in many Indian Reserves, you just encourage people to stay where there is no reason to do so.
    Private sector unions, based on the North American (imported from the Brits) confrontational model, with much assistance from big company management, eventually destroy the jobs of their members. Public sector unions OTOH, grow like a cancer eventually playing a lead role in destroying the economy of the entire nation state.

  13. The Flint water is directly related to a failure of the State & Fed EPA agencies.. They knew the problem existed, but testified that they chose not to request the huge sum of Money that was needed for the fix… The EPA had another global(Climate change) policy agenda that members hoped would gain them better promotions…
    Trump will demand results in America.. Full stop… Eliminate the Climate Change EPA nonsense. Let those who want to chase fairy farts.. supply funding & support.. ZERO probability horror schemes from Hollywood
    Go Trump….Be gone global EPA.. Be gone UN sleaze

  14. Johnny Cash’s song ‘one piece at a time’ is based on real life.
    when we lived in Burlington, the Mack Truck plant located in Oakville closed in 93. word was, a tiny part of the decision had to do with the difficulties the sales folk were having when those ‘in the know’ would take to stealing the iconic hood ornaments off units that were ready for delivery. apparently, measures meant to thwart the theft resulted in the thieves merely hacking them off instead of using a hand tool, ie, damage to the body of the vehicle as well.
    today’s skill testing question, who but plant personnel would *know* the whats and whens that presented the opportunity to ‘make a little money on the side’.
    typical unionboy behavior, hobble the sale of a vehicle in the 100,000 plus range just so they can cover the cost of a new wide screen TV or whatever.
    same story at the St Thomas Ford plant. apparently the whole factory knew engines and transmissions etc were leaving the plant by a path other than the rail cars. again, who would be in the position to know the best timing of such thefts?
    unionboy, *constantly* shooting his ‘brother’ in the nuts for the sake of a quick buck. the same mentality brought to the ‘negotiating’ table for generations. fcuk ’em. the only serious location for organized labour is gubbamint, those funded by gubbamint like firefighters, and the well entrenched trades. the golden age is OVER unionboy, you are an anachronism.

  15. Well said for the most part, but one quibble and one point of disagreement.
    The quibble is that you didn’t highlight the effect of CAFE laws. Detroit was making what they thought people wanted (more fins / more cowbell) but the legal obligation to have more fuel efficient cars (at the expense of what people wanted – station wagons were popular for a reason) put them in a market they weren’t accustomed to considering as a required backbone of sales. Japan had the expertise in small vehicles, an the fanatical devotion to “do it right or don’t do it”, and were able to use that to their advantage. When I was young “made in Japan” meant cheap price but slightly lower quality. Today “made in China” means cheap price and cheap quality. But enough people seem to be happy with that.
    “And as the owners get richer, the economy gets worse, and the Democratic government betray what is supposed to be its base.” In my opinion the main fault of governments is not practising reciprocal trade – if your nation is closed to our imports then our nation is closed to yours. Similarly, a monopoly cannot occur without active government involvement and interference. A government cannot and should not pick favourites amongst those in the nation. But they can keep the playing field level (and open) so that those who have grown beyond their ability can fail and clear the field for another up and coming company. The idea that something is “too big to fail” does not occur in nature – only in politics. In nature, when something becomes too big, then it’s time for them to die and get out of the way some something younger and hungrier can take their place. When a party leaves its base, as the Democrats have finally done to a level that is visible to all, then they lose their support and they lose. Same thing with companies. Same thing with media. When something gets too big or forgets from where they came, they need to be able to fail. That’s counter to current political thought, but necessary for a functional society and economy.
    My last vehicle was a GM. My current one is a Kia. The Kia has a lot of little things that are inferior to the GM, but the cost difference is half the value of the car for comparable features. I miss some of the quality, but the difference in quality is not worth the current difference in price.
    And the captch is wise (or a smartass) again, “avenue real” – reality street.

  16. If your disagreement is the statement that main fault of governments is not practising reciprocal trade – if your nation is closed to our imports then our nation is closed to yours, then there is no disagreement. I sort of said that with my complaint about Japan levying tariff on our (American) rice, and we don’t reciprocate in levying tariff on their cars. In general I never believed in tariffs, as it allowed manufacturers to be complacent rather than seeking improvements. But I believe in reciprocity, and secondly as Trump is fighting manufacturers who have betrayed the workers for years by taking the expertise overseas, it is really a different ball game. Morally, that is no different than industrial spying, playing the part of imbedded moles.
    The CAFE laws were just the earliest example of what evolved into the myriad emission and CO2 laws today. That was another step in pushing for smaller cars, i.e. Japanese cars. But it happened after the era of 60’s I had in mind. But yes, it may have been the coup de grace in losing that war.
    The following isn’t a direct response to you, but since the subject of car safety is related, I’ll mention it here. Someone else talked about comparing safety features of a 1959 chevy belair vs a 2012 Malibu. I have absolutely no disagreement. Our first two family cars were a Buick LeSabre, which was best in its class according to insurance actuary stats, and a Volvo, which 20 years ago pioneered safety features which are now standard. But I was talking about an early sixties cheap Japanese car vs. an American car of the same time. If both cars lacked safety features, at least the American car was bigger and could survive a crash better. That feature was turned against the American car by the grossly misleading crash tests fed to the public, as I pointed out.

  18. If the race had been decided on total number of votes, millions of Trump supporters would have had a reason to turn out rather than stay home, because every Republucan vote would count in California and NY, and every other blue state, if the Electoral College were abolished. Under the electoral college( and with gerrymandered Congressional districts ) there is no reason for Republicans to turn out in the blue states, particularly the lopsidedly blue ones.
    The Democrat leadership knows this, they just have to keep their clueless internet trolls in a lather, so that the easily led liberal rank and file keep going to the polls. But they will perhaps learn after a few more stompings like they experienced in November.

  19. A good idea – like turning a blind eye at first, and, eventually financing an Iranian atomic bomb. Besides, why did junior take 8 years to come up with this act of pure genius, and was it really his idea?

  20. Sorry, but so many states were rated tossups, that democrats showed as many as they could at the polls- including a lot of illegal votes. they had no disincentive to vote, whereas Republicans in blue states did have a disincentive.
    I guess you haven’t noticed that many large manufacturers are making product lines that are essentially 1oo per cent machine made with practically no labor input, in China, not because of cost advantage but in the hope of getting favorable market access in China from the Communist government. Only way to stop that is with a selective tariff at the border.

  21. I live in California, unfortunately, in the bluest part of the state, and Trump is the first elected official who ostensibly represents me who actually represents my interests in eight years.
    And the situation for popular vote in California is actually worse than that. First of all, the vote for Clinton is a slam dunk. Secondly, the districts are totally gerrymandered, mostly for Democrats, but some are sops tossed to the Republicans. Thirdly, the new open primary nomination resulted in a runoff between two liberal Democrats for Senator, the only statewide office contested. About the only thing that would get a Republican to the poll are the propositions, and they weren’t all that interesting.
    Also, California all but told aliens to vote. They just passed a law allowing aliens to get driver’s license with no ID. You declare at the time whether you are a citizen or alien, with no proof. And the difference in the license is a little check box. Then you can register to vote with the license. How many legal and illegal aliens voted? How many people registered in multiple precincts? Who knows? And no one cares because California was going to Clinton anyway.
    Then, they do not count the absentee ballots (for presidency) unless the voting is close. It wasn’t. Absentee ballots are traditionally very conservative because most of it are cast by soldiers stationed elsewhere, many overseas. They are very faithful in voting because the process reminds the of what they are fighting for.
    I don’t know how much difference the three factors combined made. California gave something like 4.5 million majority to Clinton, overturning the 1.5 million plurality Trump got everywhere else to a 3 million Clinton plurality. Fraud and indifference in California alone might have done the trick. If not, there are frauds by all the big city Democratic machines. I don’t know if the Founding Fathers thought of the anti-fraud aspect, but electoral votes surely is a good way to limit the effect of the fraud to one state. No matter how many votes they invent for California, it still only counts for 55 electoral votes.

  22. Thanks for your comment. My uncle worked at Trans Canada Airlines, then at Air Canada in Montreal. He was an electronics technician. He often talked about guys showing up for work, punching the clock and then going outside to drink beer in the parking lot on hot summer days. They would have someone else sign out for them, as they were too drunk and had long gone home. These shops were performing regular overhauls on DC-8s back in the late 60’s. Great way to run an airline.

  23. Thanks for your comment. My uncle worked at Trans Canada Airlines, then at Air Canada in Montreal. He was an electronics technician. He often talked about guys showing up for work, punching the clock and then going outside to drink beer in the parking lot on hot summer days. They would have someone else sign out for them, as they were too drunk and had long gone home. These shops were performing regular overhauls on DC-8s back in the late 60’s. Great way to run an airline.

  24. That was the quibble, not the possible point of difference. The possible point of difference is whether it’s inevitable that as the owners get richer, they will try to move away from what made them rich in the first place.
    Overall I suspect we agree on most of the big picture items.

  25. No evidence of vote fraud? Rep. Jim Moran ( D, VA ) son was involved in an illegal voter registration scheme. Over 700 people with the same first and last name birthdate and last 4 digits of their SS number voted in both North Carolina and Virginia in 2012.
    In the recent presidential election, 37% of the districts in Detroit scanned more ballots than could be accounted for in the books where voters signed, and the Secretary of State is investigating it presently.

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