The Sound Of Settled Science

Climate Cult 78 Comments

Thanks, but no thanks;

Both halves of the [Nobel Peace Prize] honor promoting the message that Earth’s temperature is rising due to human-based emissions of greenhouse gases. The Nobel committee praises Mr. Gore and the IPCC for alerting us to a potential catastrophe and for spurring us to a carbonless economy.
I’m sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never “proof”) and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.
There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why. As we build climate data sets from scratch and look into the guts of the climate system, however, we don’t find the alarmist theory matching observations. (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite data we analyze at the University of Alabama in Huntsville does show modest warming — around 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit per century, if current warming trends of 0.25 degrees per decade continue.)
It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system’s behavior over the next five days.
[…]
Mr. Christy is director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and a participant in the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, co-recipient of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize.

h/t

78 Replies to “The Sound Of Settled Science”

  1. I’ve read much better articles that address the stupidity of Al Gore and his Global Warming Circus.
    Still, the more that’s written the merrier.

  2. Mr.Christy should stick to making cookies, and start spelling his name properly.
    Otherwise, everything he said is pretty old hat. We’ve all heard it before, and the view from the other side of the aisle is that the risks are too large to ignore. They justify the current course of action.

  3. Excellent comments by Christy. He’s not alone in this assessment of the impossibility of concluding that CO2 is responsible for current climate change. I applaud his refusal to conclude that correlation (warming and CO2) is equivalent to causality.

  4. ET: Correlation provides evidence of causation. The stronger the correlation, the stronger the evidence for causation. Where there are proposed mechanisms, the causation hypothesis is strengthened.
    You can argue about the mechanisms and the strength of the evidence (the correlation), but we routinely infer causation between events using correlation as part of the evidence.

  5. Let me translate what our “strawman” troll just said to the English language:
    Even though there is no conclusive evidence that CO2 causes warming, because one occurs close enough to the other (and we’re talking thousands of years), we can make up our own rules and say the opposite simply because of the vicinity of the two occurences.
    Do you idolize Chomsky?

  6. Oh, and strawman, when you get your article published in the WSJ or any other publcation for that matter, maybe we’ll begin to take you more seriously. But for now, you’re just am anonymous troll that I’m feeding….flame away!

  8. Speaking of evidence of causation. IPCC has recently stated that mans CO2 emissions have gone up 35% since the 90’s. Which they say will cause a huge acceleration of global warming.
    But temperatures have flat lined since 1998 and have actually went down in the southern hemisphere. Sounds to me like the evidence of causation means that increased CO2 slows or even stops global warming.

  9. Anon: and there is a correlation between churches and liquor stores…
    Clearly Mr Christy, a member of the IPCC didnt get the consensus means no debate memo. He may be wrong, he may be right. But he points out valid criticisms of AGW mania.
    I would like to see one predicition that the AGW crowd makes that doesnt either need to be revised later or falls within some reasonable range of error, i.e. not being quantum amounts off. Then I would like them to make another prediction using the same model and see if that one works.
    To date, hasnt been done. Prove it or generate some workable models and I’ll buy in.

  10. The argument that “the risks are too large to ignore” isn’t invalid in itself; I always found it a fairly compelling argument for taking down the Hussein regime in Iraq, for example, and truthfully, I think it’s a good reason to do something about Iran’s government as well. (It’s the major basis of Ron Susskind’s “The One Percent Solution”, if I understand correctly.) So if we’re willing to accept that even the chance Hussein had WMDs was reason enough to overthrow him, we should grant the prerogative of others to consider some other risks equally unacceptable no matter how remote they may be or how much mitigating them might cost.
    The question, of course, all comes down to: At what point does a risk become “unacceptable,” and how do we accurately evaluate the likelihood of the risk when we cannot controllably reproduce and test its context? Like “reasonable doubt,” it’s a concept that’s almost wholly unreasonable, in that it tends to be decided more by individual intuition at best and reflex bias at worst.
    I’m not a climate scientist or a modeller; I can’t assess the likelihood of these claims. All the same, I can’t help remembering a C.S. Lewis quote from Screwtape the Devil:
    “We want a patient so haunted by memories of the past, or so tormented by visions of an appalling future, that he will gladly commit atrocities in the present if only he can be persuaded that by doing so he will somehow make amends for the one or forestall the other.”
    Nothing persuades people to make really really bad decisions so fast as scaring them with the threat that things will be even worse if they don’t.

  12. I like this observation made after 4 different reconstructions of the last 100 yrs plus of Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies.
    “Over a century, the mean hemispheric changes equal about 0.6 degree C, equivalent to a downward alteration in altitude of about 300 feet, or a southward move of about 60 miles” (closer to the equator).
    I still think that we need a National Thermometer Registry to keep thermometers out of the hands of the socially dangerous lawyers and geneticists.

  13. It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system’s behavior over the next five days.
    The stock market is complex too, which is why its easier to predict long term than short term. I suppose our economy could collapse and the markets crash, but hopefully you’ve all got advisors telling you to invest long-term anyway.

  14. I can control climate. But I will need your money and your strict obedience. And no questions asked.

  15. By the way, I’m still waiting for simple answers to simple questions:
    1. During the reign of Mao, Stalin, Castro, Pol-Pot, Chavez, Mugabe, did anyone make a film critical of the regime and live to tell the world?
    Choices: A. YES B. NO
    2. How are long term trends measured?
    Choices: A. smaller (hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, etc.) increments compiled and observed to reveal a possible long term trend. B. Ask Algore and the IPCC what the answer is and collect carbon credits.
    Waiting……

  17. “It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system’s behavior over the next five days.”
    And those who don’t know the difference between climate and weather should limit their comments to the latter.

  18. Climate is what we expect. Weather is what we get.
    What do I win?
    Both, by the by, are inherently unpredictable over time. 5 days out is about as good as it gets.
    Centuries? Fageddaboudit.

  19. I predict Ice Age commencing very soon…. will Gore be able to afford his home heating Oil??
    Will we stop financing the UN and heating & lighting that monstrosity in NYC??
    If everyone is so concerned about warming why are southern and coastal real estate prices going up faster than interior and northern?
    Gore mansion monstrosity is where? West Virginia?
    According to Goracle predictions that will be burned out by forest fires/ripped apart by tornados/ flooded by torrential rain/have NO water sources……. or maybe not!
    Exception Alberta…..

  20. Now, THIS
    “I still think that we need a National Thermometer Registry to keep thermometers out of the hands of the socially dangerous lawyers and geneticists.” by rockyt
    has got to be the BEST ‘one-liner’ I have ever heard on the whole Kyoto fraud file !! Perfect.
    Think Hansen, Strong and Suzuki. They have devoted their life to a fraud because they are nut cases —– in the same way the Wacko from Waco was.

  21. Doug: you said Even though there is no conclusive evidence that CO2 causes warming, you mean apart from the physics of the CO2 molecule which has been known for a hundred years of course.
    Alan: do you have a reference for your statement. I want to know who you were quoting here “Which they say will cause a huge acceleration of global warming.”
    Mojo: you said Both, by the by, are inherently unpredictable over time. 5 days out is about as good as it gets. Tell you what, lets make a bet. You select a city and you predict what the average temperature for that city is in 3 day’s time and I will predict what the average temperature will be for the globe for 2008.
    Regards,
    John

  22. Here is another thought. Does anyone care to ask Dr. Christy what could cause warming in the troposphere yet cooling in the stratosphere? After all that is what his research shows.
    Regards,
    John

  23. If naturally occurring events are causing climate change, doesn’t that mean climate change is a natural ecological event? And if that’s true, then WTF is the problem?

  24. [“Over a century, the mean hemispheric changes equal about 0.6 degree C, equivalent to a downward alteration in altitude of about 300 feet, or a southward move of about 60 miles” (closer to the equator).] rockyt
    EXACTLY !!
    The whole GW swindle is about panic. Trying to panick us into believing that we will fry.
    As rockyt puts it —- what is so scary about moving down the hill 300 feet ?? Where it is indistinguishably warmer. And where people are already living happily.
    Or moving a couple of towns farther south ?? Every winter thousands of Canadians spend big $$s travelling 100s of towns farther south.
    But ya, ya. The fear-mongers will say yabut — other bad things will happen. Like what ?? Anything as bad as trying to live under a kilometer of ice ??
    I wonder which climate those before us liked better — the Little Ice Age or the Medieval Warm Period ??

  25. So, JC, you can predict that the Earth’s temperature, a hundred years from now, will be 15.8C not 15.2C ?? Ice Age rider with that ??
    And we know that we cannot trust Hansen with the thermometer 🙂

  27. Hahaha!
    “Mr.Christy should stick to making cookies, and start spelling his name properly.”
    “And those who don’t know the difference between climate and weather should limit their comments to the latter.”
    Sterling comments from two of Canada’s outstanding climate expert trolls about the balanced and scientifically-appropriate opinion of a climate expert. You both forgot to say that he was obviously in the pay of “Big Oil”…time to re-read your script, eh?

  28. anon
    correlation in absense of other causative factors is only grounds for further study to see if there is causative factors that cause the correlation
    “””” Correlation provides evidence of causation. “”””
    NO IT DOESN’T

  29. Alan: Good enough. It was the word “huge” that I was curious about anyway.
    In regards to the climate over the last few years, I don’t see the flat line. If you look at the GISS index you see that some years are warmer and some years are cooler, but the 5 year mean is constantly up in the last decade.
    Regards,
    John

  31. The correlation between increase of CO2 and higher temperatures… the higher temperatures cause an increase in CO2. Possible.
    Was there not an article yesterday in the online Globe and Mail that outlined the possibility that the boreal forest in Canada may be releasing more CO2 than it consumes?

  32. You guys must be so proud of your Conservative government, and their principled denial of climate change as a man-made phenomenon.
    I constantly wonder if you people know your full of shit, or really believe all of this BS.

  33. Christy says “…everything we’ve seen the climate do has happened before. Sea levels rise and fall continually. The Arctic ice cap has shrunk before.”…
    Amen, Amen. The climate will continue to change forever–hot,cold,hot,cold–before humans appeared and long after we are gone.

  35. “Sterling comments from two of Canada’s outstanding climate expert trolls about the balanced and scientifically-appropriate opinion of a climate expert.”
    Wow. First post and I’m a climate expert troll. And one of Canada’s most outstanding to boot. I’m truly humbled.
    Let’s break this down. As a climate expert, Christy has a valid point decrying the use of overblown and overwrought climate predictions, “…I see jump-to-conclusions advocates and, unfortunately, some scientists who see in every weather anomaly the specter of a global-warming apocalypse.” But then he goes to the other extreme by comparing Tuesday’s forecast to the climate in 50 years. That’s neither a balanced or scientifically-appropriate opinion, it’s an attempt to minimise the issue by analogy. And someone should remind him Huntsville, Alabama is NOT the world, whether the temperature is increasing or not.

  36. Hhttp://www.lifesite.net/ldn/2007/nov/07110105.html
    Here are some people who believe science, and a whole lot more, is settled!
    I can’t even begin to express my disgust at their ignorance of SO MANY THINGS! Their own history, for one. How can these people even get any traction?!

  37. Someone alert Gore to these charts that have been common knowledge for the rest of us to see how a Pissed-off fireball spews heat waves through a vacuum to end up hitting Earth and changing our weather models or “Climate Change”
    by minor deviation that can be exploited if you are selective for the Chart Scale and Timeline windows.
    I spent almost 2 years doing Stock Charts by hand for about around 60 different companies that covered the 14 Sectors of the Stock Market Index , so Al Gore can pull out any Chart he wants and unless I see the Scale for the Grid and the starting point for a Base 100 measuring tool for the + – deviations and ironically the ” AlGorythmic compressions to reflect the % move .
    http://science.nasa.gov/NEWHOME/headlines/ast22jul99_1.htm
    Next Gore will have a “Tide” tax for hydro power and insist the Moon has nothing to do with the Tidal changes and blmaes in to Humans flushing the Toilets at the same time and flooding the Earth .

  38. anon- did you know that there is a high correlation between availability of seeds and the presence of chicadees? Do seeds CAUSE chicadees?
    There is a high correlation between a fever and a disease. Does the fever CAUSE the disease?
    GreyOne40 – nice one! It’s possible!
    Stephen j – nice quote from Lewis. Exactly. That’s the real nature of AGW – it’s an apocalpytic myth of Sinful Man.

  40. John Cross
    Looking at your graft I see it says temperatures have gone up 8 tenths of a degree since 1880 wow that is a scary temperature increase.
    I went down to Mexico and it was 20 degrees warmer does that mean we have to wait about 2000 years before we do not have to go south to get some sun in the winter.

  41. Senator Inhofe Speech Excerpt:
    We are currently witnessing an international awakening of scientists who are speaking out in opposition to former Vice President Al Gore, the United Nations, the Hollywood elitists and the media-driven “consensus” on man-made global warming.
    We have witnessed Antarctic ice GROW to record levels since satellite monitoring began in the 1970’s. We have witnessed NASA temperature data errors that have made 1934 — not 1998 — the hottest year on record in the U.S. We have seen global averages temperatures flat line since 1998 and the Southern Hemisphere cool in recent years.

  42. John Cross’s comments about troposphere warming are incorrect, at least lately. The lower and mid troposphere have been cooling since the start of 2002. Surface temperatures have been flat in that same time period.
    The issue with troposphere temperatures is significant since models show the troposphere should be warming faster than the surface, but the relationship is the inverse, at least for the last 6 years.
    BRK

  43. Alan: Whether the change is significant is another argument (although I will note that temperatures were only about 5C cooler in the last ice age).
    I was pointing out that contrary to what you said the warming has not stopped.
    Regards,
    John

  45. John
    You cite the GISS data to show a temperature increase, but how credible is the data.
    Meteorologists at http://www.surfacestations.org have studied a third of the surface stations in the USHCN network and found that more than half don’t meet the organizations own standards. They are placed too close to asphalt and other sources of heat.
    This of course is a function of increased urbanization encroaching on once rural stations. Cities give off heat and affect readings. That explains for example why stations in Albany, NY, have shown little increase in temperature in the last century while New York City has risen dramatically.

  46. John:
    You’ll have to review the data itself.
    My reference is the datasets found at NOAA: “http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/msu.html”. Monthly anomaly data currently up to September of this year. There are a number of “flavours” of processing the MSU data(RSS,UAH etc.) but they all show the same trend over the last 6 years or so. Namely cooling of the lower and middle troposphere.
    Linear regression of the anomaly data in the period 2002 to 2007 inclusive show the mid-troposphere temps to be cooling at a rate of 0.2 degrees per decade. Meaning in 3 decades at this rate they will lose all the temperature gain of the last century.
    BRK

  47. John:
    One more point on the MSU datasets. Compared the surface temperatures they are a model of objectivity. Why?
    While they don’t cover the extreme polar areas, they do have otherwise unbiased spatial coverage, unlike the surface datasets which have sparse coverage in the far north and places like the interior of Africa. Also they aren’t subject to the effects of urbanization over time as noted above. And finally they sample a much larger zone of the atmosphere, not just the 10 m next to the ground.
    So for a number of reasons they represent a more objective view of global climate change, the only problem being they only go back to 1979.
    BRK

  49. AL GORE is one of the worlds biggist liar and fruad i mean giving him the award they might as well give it to ASSAMA BIN LADEN since their both a couple of regigious fanatics the only difference is AL GORE is a big time gaia worshiper just like most of the eco-extremists

  50. ET, I liked your analogy. About seeds and birds.
    I take it if you had a kid that kept spilling juice under the fridge and not cleaning it up, and then you find that you had ants, you wouldn’t yell at the kid and tell him not to spill juice, because he didn’t “cause” the ants? Ant sex did, right?
    😉

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