Michael Barone on the changing demographic of urban America;
Start with the Coastal Megalopolises: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, Chicago (on the coast of Lake Michigan), Miami, Washington and Boston. Here is a pattern you don’t find in other big cities: Americans moving out and immigrants moving in, in very large numbers, with low overall population growth. Los Angeles, defined by the Census Bureau as Los Angeles and Orange Counties, had a domestic outflow of 6% of 2000 population in six years–balanced by an immigrant inflow of 6%. The numbers are the same for these eight metro areas as a whole.
There are some variations. New York had a domestic outflow of 8% and an immigrant inflow of 6%; San Francisco a whopping domestic outflow of 10% (the bursting of the tech bubble hurt) and an immigrant inflow of 7%. Miami and Washington had domestic outflows of only 2%, overshadowed by immigrant inflows of 8% and 5%, respectively.
This is something few would have predicted 20 years ago. Americans are now moving out of, not into, coastal California and South Florida, and in very large numbers they’re moving out of our largest metro areas. They’re fleeing hip Boston and San Francisco, and after eight decades of moving to Washington they’re moving out. The domestic outflow from these metro areas is 3.9 million people, 650,000 a year. High housing costs, high taxes, a distaste in some cases for the burgeoning immigrant populations–these are driving many Americans elsewhere.
The result is that these Coastal Megalopolises are increasingly a two-tiered society, with large affluent populations happily contemplating (at least until recently) their rapidly rising housing values, and a large, mostly immigrant working class working at low wages and struggling to move up the economic ladder. The economic divide in New York and Los Angeles is starting to look like the economic divide in Mexico City and São Paulo.
The rest at Opinion Journal.
Fascinating – and he notes that the Interior Boomtowns have grown 18% and this influx is primarily non-immigrant. And that these people tend to vote Republican.
Demographics is a key variable and often completely overlooked by the political pundits. We are still, as a nation, too economically and politically young for any great comparisons. The major demographic shift is, of course, to the West, and hopefully this will be addressed by providing the West with more House seats before the next election.
And, with climate change, we might begin to open up the north to development; we might be able to extend our agricultural seasons in the south, and expand agriculture into the north.
Economically, history shows us that we deliberately set up our nation as cocooned within the US economy. Politically, we have moved out of our origins of being cocooned within the British Empire and Commonwealth and have, alarmed at this sudden self-responsibility, instead taken shelter behind the protective might of the US – and the vapid rhetoric of the UN.
With Harper and his principled internationalism and economic and political decentralization, we might begin to move out of hiding and mature as a nation.
Same for Canada … it was about 6 years ago that the GTA reached over 50% immigrant(non-north American) population and the trend will continue.
As for the economic divide! That’s what you get with a huge population of under educated people. Meanwhile the socialists are climbing all over each other to promote their ideology of class envy to take advantage of this trend as they cynically maneuver for power and influence.
WHat is interesting is that the interior town in the US have large companies within them. The US is far more decentralized than other places….good telecom, travel and road infrastructure enable this.
This is not a bad thing. It sets the path for even more growth. This happens when you dont setup a city as being the be all and end all of things.
I live in TO and I worry that it will go the way of Montreal. Montreal prior to 76 thought it had a god given right to be the premier city in the country…they blew it. Toronto may do the same throough taxes etc.
New York earned its way to being that for the US and continues to do so. People and companies continue to do business there for reasons, not for subsidies etc. But it isnt the only place and New York city fathers know it.
Toronto needs to take a similar attitude, run the city properly and its prosperity will continue and that also means that some others cities success only makes you better.
Toronto is overtaxed over regulated and over spends…..We have a mayor who takes his cue from the street window washers, always looking for a handout. And sometimes isnt as polite.
Good article…Canadian trends run some years behind the US, we have more space so it will take longer before the exurban areas, and “secondary cities” start to really take off, although they are doing some of that now.
I think Winnipeg is actually hilding its own quite well in this country as far as companies and head offices go. I think it will continue, and this will be good for all.
“This is something few would have predicted 20 years ago. Americans are now moving out of, not into, coastal California and South Florida”
Maybe these are Goreites fleeing the flood?
Another way to look at it is the middle class flight from the highest taxed and regulated states (NY, CA, MD, CT, NJ) to jurisdictions that are definitely friendlier on those fronts (NC, TX, GA, AZ). The middle class are voting with their feet – not wanting to live in areas with sky high taxes, overpriced and unaffordable housing, crumbing schools and rampant crime to places, for a lack of a better term – “middle class family friendly”.
Why would a family want to live in Silicon Valley, where even the smallest home start in the low $500,000 range – unaffordable for most families – when they could live in a place like Charlotte NC – where they could earn about 75% of the after tax income, but with housing costs about 40% of CA and without the commuting time. The economics is a no brainer, and something taht blue state governors need to serious examine.
…don’t forget Vancouver (Hongkover) and Montreal (Les Anglais).
The Yukon is starting to look more desirable as time goes on. Heck, if Sask got their act together with a good government, maybe there even…
😉
Stephen: “Toronto is overtaxed over regulated and over spends….”
You ain’t seen nothing yet. From today’s National Post:
“30-cent coffee cup tax proposed”
“Staff report due; Councillor also wants tolls on cans, bags, batteries”
“Mr. De Baeremaeker asked that the report also consider instore deposit return programs for old paint cans and batteries.”
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/toronto/story.html?id=b3b11823-16a6-4e55-b98f-a769d2994645
This would seem to be a no-brainer. You shouldn’t destroy your tax base to get better access to cheap labour. That shoudn’t work but it will. The brains that the movers and shakers rent from the vast tax paying class have been hard at work and have provided answers the radical priests, NDP/green party dunderheads, and Chamber of Commerce will all love. We will pay more for gas, heating oil, interact machines, privatized garbage pick-up and police protection, airport fees, mail delivery, sin taxes, and internet fees. The beauty of this is you could name new taxes forever.
You don’t want to pay for someone elses choices? Tough, The rich don’t pay their share now. That leaver the middle to pay the full shot for the poor who pays nothing either. We have always paid and they know it.
Stephen & John B: “Toronto is overtaxed over regulated and over spends….”
Toronto’s executive committe voted unanimously to ask the city’s auditor general and council’s integrity commissioner to examine the expenses of Councillors Rob Ford (Ward 2, Etobicoke North) and Doug Holyday (Ward 3, Etobicoke Centre)…
[… because they don’t spend enough !!!!]
Ford reported spending zero in 2006; Holyday says he spent $1,471. Both are known to lecture other councillors for wasting taxpayers’ money.
This is happening in Calgary. I’ve lived here almost all my life, and at 36 years old, making nearly $100k per year I am struggling to buy a first home in a decent neigbourhood* that’s large enough** for me, my wife and our three kids. Our needs are pretty modest, but things are accelerating here so quickly that’s it’s nearly impossible. We should be able to do it, but we’ll be living on the very edge of our income.
I have friends who bought houses in Calgary two or three years ago who’ve cashed out and moved back to Nova Scotia / New Brunswick and paid cash for a home with the equity they’ve gained. They don’t mind the slightly less certain labour market (and the higher taxes) because they know they’ll always have a roof over their heads.
I’m already at work on systems of income that will allow me to work from anywhere. I have about a year left. Once that happens, we’ll either move to the interior of BC somewhere, or out to the East Coast, or to the U.S. (my wife is American). As much as I love my city, I can’t see spending so much money to live here.
* Where “a decent neighbourhood” is defined as “anywhere outside of Forest Lawn/Dover/Penbrooke where I grew up.”
** Where “large enough” is defined as a single detached house of 1500 square feet (or better) with a garage.
john tiller, the rich don’t pat taxes, since when. the top 25% of income earners pay between 80 and 84% of taxes. i am sure the socialists will find more ways to tax those of us at the bottom of the heap.
Yes, the rich have always had to foot the bill, and it’ll only get worse.
Think why all these taxes are being brought upon us. They’re paying for something, hmmm, I wonder what they’re paying for . . .
rikardon – I’m in a similar situation in Calgary (although I was planning to buy a small house rather then rent last year) …
I’m not too sure that Calgary’s realestate prices are stable though. Since January last year I have seen far more people buying second homes (or condos) to flip them then people buying homes to live in; currently I know 4 people who are in the process of building homes, and 3 people who own property that is vacant, in order to cash in on the realestate boom.
I could be wrong but I expect that (as long as we have this many speculators in the market) current conditions will encourage developers to over-produce houses/condos until we are in a housing surplus.
In the future primitive, tribal wars will be common. The country tribes will wage wars again’st the new “castles” (Cities) tribes.
Interesting that mostly right wingers are leaving the “Sodoms” right now.
I already have my 5 acres of land for my own exodus soon.
Big city living rots the brain and weakens survival skills. It disconnects you from nature. Especially if born and raised in one metropolis for more than a generation.
I am convinced that the current decline of western civilisation can be mostly attributed by political forces democratically elected in majority by big city habitants. Some examples:
-Global warming hysteria
-Relunctance to fulfill our NATO and other international responsabilities
– Big government/high tax supporters
Etc…
….Lots of ranting and generalities I know, but some of it is certainly true.
Remember: Not ONE COnservative seat was given by either: Montreal, Toronto or Vancouver…Even after being raped and pillage by the Libranos…City living “Rots the brain” ? eh, yeah, maybe.
I suspect the same thing is happening in Vancouver. Right now there is is outrage on the part of teachers that school closures are planned, but there are 10,000 fewer students than expected in Vancouver schools. No big surprise when a 500 ft**2 condo in dowtown Vancouver starts at $300K and houses are in the $1 million dollar range. Houses have gone up in the interior, but $300K buys a hell of a lot more room than 500 ft**2 in Kamloops.
There is a huge amount of construction in downtown Vancouver, but I have no idea who’s going to be living in these places. All I know for sure is that they either don’t have any kids or weren’t born in Canada. While I understand that housing prices have gone up in Calgary, I couldn’t believe the size of Calgary when I was through there a couple of weeks ago. This implies that a lot of people are still able to afford housing there. The city did seem to end once I got as far west as Cochrane.
This is all about white flight.
Imagine having to relocate millions of people.
PS May is Asian Heritage month
I wonder when white male appreciation nanosecond is?
“** Where “large enough” is defined as a single detached house of 1500 square feet (or better) with a garage”
rikardon
I agree with everything you said except “that” house being modest. Sounds like a nice place to me.
C’mon to Winnipeg!
Low property values make for cheap housing!
If you can bring a business all the better….. as long as you are willing to put up with a possible 4 more years of NDP government!
OMMAG, don’t forget the stifling taxes, the rampant crime and the decaying infrastructure.
But yeah, get ready for the four more years of Dipper Doer and Spendalot Gang. It ain’t going to be pretty.
I agree taxation is killing Toronto. I pay $6,000 for house taxes yet will have to pay for garbage pickup. Services are declining and costs are rising. There are literally gangs of parking enforcers that prowl our streets tagging you if you are overtime by seconds. The city is crumbling, filthy and covered in graffitti. Our socialist mayor and his lapdogs have been given the key to the taxation, oops revenue tool candyshop by McSquinty and will not be happy until every business leaves the city and surprize, the streets finally have no cars on them.
One of our council bright lights, Adam Vaugn, is trying to figure how he can tax people for lining up for the theatre or nightclubs on public sidewalks! There must be a way.
Our city, as noted, is socialist heaven and as long as its citizens through their voting apathy allow the public unions to control it through the mayor it will spiral down into bankruptcy.
Toronto is now seeing the shift of flight to the cheaper suburbs and smaller towns and immigrants taking their place. As soon as my wife retires next year I am gone also.
No paper, magazine or columnist aside from Steyn dare to suggest we have too many people. Ordinary people lack the courage to suggest we have too many people.I think our “open” immigration is stupid and not good for Canada. We should start whats best for our nation and only accept immigrants who can speak a national language [no more ESL lessons] have a professtion, desired trade, or money.
We should recognize that our globe needs to have population reduced. It was 3 billion when I was young, now nearly 7 billion and by midcentury is expected to be near 10 billion.
When one billion go to sleep hungry every nite and when most countries including Canada do not have infrastructure to service their own existing populations ie schools universities, water and sewage systems hospitals etc, it is dumb to be still promoting immigration.
Lets ask our media to develop some courage and ask for debate on this, the most important question in Canada’s future.
Politicians love immigrants as they vote in blocks, and usually for the party that let them in, The usual stupid remarks “We all were or come from immigrants, and immigrants built the country” don’t stop to consider that every country in the western hemisphere was built by immigrants. So? Can’t we start looking at policies that favor Canada for once?
We’ve discussed the difference in populattion concentration between Canada and the US before. Here, two thirds of the people live in four major metropolitan regions (GTA, Montreal and area, BC lower mainland, and the Calgary/Edmonton corridor). In the US, the largest 50 cities contain only 16% (what Toronto alone has here).
And that difference is apparently increasing. American cities are losing residents, while our recent census showed the opposite. (The example Kate started with was Sask, where only Regina and Saskatoon showed any growth, while virtually every other community lost people.)
I agree, the Americans will end up better off with their shift than we will.
I’ve noticed the pattern of migration here in Calgary too… Most of the newcomers who move here seem to be Canadian-born from other provinces… I don’t know if they are fleeing socialist governments, fleeing immigrants who refuse to integrate, or if they will bring their gimme-gimme socialist mentality with them though. The native born migrant are much greater in numbers than immigrants. Not so the case in Vancouver, Toronto, or Montreal.
I’ve noticed the pattern of migration here in Calgary too… Most of the newcomers who move here seem to be Canadian-born from other provinces… I don’t know if they are fleeing socialist governments, fleeing immigrants who refuse to integrate, or if they will bring their gimme-gimme socialist mentality with them though. The native born migrant are much greater in numbers than immigrants. Not so the case in Vancouver, Toronto, or Montreal.
I’ve noticed the pattern of migration here in Calgary too… Most of the newcomers who move here seem to be Canadian-born from other provinces… I don’t know if they are fleeing socialist governments, fleeing immigrants who refuse to integrate, or if they will bring their gimme-gimme socialist mentality with them though. The native born migrant are much greater in numbers than immigrants. Not so the case in Vancouver, Toronto, or Montreal.
Let’s not let Calgary and Edmonton off the hook…current boomtime inflation and housing gouge has made Alberta’s main cities undesireable destinations for skilled labor to move to…it is the housing prices that stop a tradesman from smal towns from uprooting a family selling a paid for 250K$ house and move to a place where they will have to downscale in housing accomadation or take on a 200K$ mortgage to get something similar to what they left.
And Alberta wonders why it has a skilled labor shortage?