Another installment by Michael Totten, with the Iraqi Police in Kirkuk;
“If America pulls out of Iraq, they will fail in Afghanistan,” Mam Rostam said.
Hardly anyone in Congress seems to consider that the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan might become much more severe if similar tactics are proven effective in Iraq.
“And they will fail with Iran,” he continued. “They will fail everywhere with all Eastern countries. The war between America and the terrorists will move from Iraq and Afghanistan to America itself. Do you think America will do that? The terrorists gather their agents in Afghanistan and Iraq and fight the Americans here. If you pull back, the terrorists will follow you there. They will try, at least. Then Iran will be the power in the Middle East. Iran is the biggest supporter of terrorism. They support Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Ansar Al Islam. You know what Iran will do with those elements if America goes away.”
The Democrats need failure in Iraq at all costs. Can you imagine if Bush succeeds in stabilizing the middle east 1500 years of war brought to an end after President Reagan won the cold war what a disaster for the left.
Thats why Harry Reid the Democrat from Nevada
is willing to come out and state the war is lost no matter what anyone says including the Generals.
Of course Hillary never to miss an opportunity pipes up and says we may have to go to war with Iran.
The Dems can’t allow success in Iraq they need their own war to settle the middle east problem so they and not the Repulicans are the ones that finally brought peace to the middle east.
So glad to see the good word widened to include SDA.
For the Liberals who have been led blindly along, this could be where the understanding begins. Let*s hope so.
We are all going to have to pull together on this or face a shocking future. = TG
I agree with the opinion of this pro-American Iraqi. America will become the battleground if they leave the field in Iraq.
My question is why is this resistance so successful and why have we seen no real military gains in getting a grip on it…I don’t blame the ground pounders doing their duty…this is a command issue and ultimaly a question for the commander in cheif….that’s where the buck stops for failure.
This is an issue of committment and ability.
I dont know the answer, but the options “to win” seem to be
1) Troop levels at the same or lower levels for a lengthier time while the iraqui government, in whatever form gets sorted out
2) A real surge with large committment of troops
I dont like 2, never have. But is it necessary, it is a real go for broke strategy.
My bet is, and has been for a bit that the only institution the Americans trust in Iraq is the Iraqi army. The army will step in and take charge in the next year. US will pull back to bases and provide all of the air cover etc and selected patrols.
IRaqi army will take over and then some gloves off stuff may well happen without US army escorts….
They are fighting a 5th generation war over there. It is simply not possible for them to win this type of conflict. It is draining their resources and ultimately will not be able to afford to continue.
Might as well bring their people home now than ten years form now.
And America will hardly become a battle ground if they leave. That is a childish assumption at best, but I suppose it appeals to some.
I’d like to run this suggestion up for comments. I’ll first point out that I have always and remain, a strong supporter of Bush’s doctrine of democratization of the ME, and of the Iraq war. But I think that the US should now leave – this year. Why?
First, Islamic fascism emerged in the ME because the ME refused to move out of a tribal political structure, which empowers one tribe vs others – and into a civic political structure of democracy, which empowers ALL people as equal citizens.
It refused to do this, but, tribalism only works in medium size populations. The exponential population explosion in the ME after WWI and II, and its movement from subsistence agriculture to industrialism, meant that it HAD to move to a civic political mode.
Note, that the ME industrial was not self-organized, but was funded by and technologically developed by the West. Islam, as a religion and ideology, rejects reason and science and is incapable of developing industrial technology on its own.
But, keeping the population repressed within a military tribalism, funded by oil – ie, military dictatorships, led to the development of Islamic fascism.
Islamic fascism was a direct result of the refusal of the ME to abandon tribalism and move to a civic mode of governance. This fascism exploded outwards – rather than internally in the ME (the dictators repressed dissent).
We saw 9/11, London, Spain, etc, etc. But, the West reacted and has, in my view, driven this fascism back into the ME and changed it, from a collective utopian ideology of ‘all Islam’ back into tribal warfare.
We are now seeing Muslims fighting and killing Muslims – of different tribes.
And, the West is slowly, starting to reject multiculturalism, a political stupidity that saw all beliefs and behaviour as untouchable and morally equivalent.
Now- in Iraq, we are seeing Muslims fighting each other – tribe against tribe.
Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia are assisting this, for they don’t want democracy, the civic mode, to emerge in the ME.
BUT- it has to.
My point is that we are seeing a strange type of neo-colonialism emerging in the ME. The original colonialism saw the West move in, take the countries out of their subsistence agriculture, industrialize them (oil), and stop the centuries of tribal warfare. Remember, Islam has no capacity for science and could not have moved out of subsistence farming to industrialism on its own.
But – the end of colonialism saw dictators emerge to maintain tribalism – but – maintain peace by force. These dictators did not want a civic political system that empowered all the people.
And – we got Islamic fascism. Terrorism. Now, democracy has been introduced into the ME. But, if the US stays there, it will be a democracy maintained by an external power, much as the peace was maintained in the WW eras by the colonialism of the UK etc.
I think that the US has to leave, and Iraq has to stand up and SHOUT to its people. STOP the tribal fighting. We are a CIVIC society, a democracy; we are not made up of separate tribes. STOP the tribal fighting.
It won’t do this as long as the US is there to protect it from these tribal fights.
THEN- the fact that Iran is heavily involved in promoting this tribal war in Iraq, won’t be confronted as long as the US is there; it will be hidden as ‘attacks against the US ‘occupation’.
The US should leave – and then, Iraq can confront Iran – WHY is it inciting terrorism in Iraq? And, the other Arab states, who certainly don’t want Iran to increase its power in the ME – will have to confront Iran.
At the moment, neither Iraq nor the other Arab states are confronting Iran; they are sitting back and allowing the US to do the fighting. But, Iran will simply increase its strength while this is going on.
I’m saying the US should leave. Iraq must then confront its own people and tell them to stop fighting. It must confront Iran and tell them to stop inciting terrorism in Iraq. And the other Arab states must confront Iran.
At the moment, everyone is hiding behind the US – and it will get worse.
So?
I have thought for a long while that a big part of the problem in Iraq with the local insurgency sans hardcore AQ outsiders, in all of the ME for that matter, is the huge number of young marginal males – undereducated, underemployed, with limited opportunites – coupled with the toxic permissions given to Muslim macho males by Islam.
Crime rates shift here in the US with demographics, more young males, more crime. Marginal males have been the well documented in regard to the problems in our inner cities. They are the majority in the ME.
It angers me too that in during past four years it would have been helpful for Europeans to have opened their coffers to support getting Iraq back on its feet. If we lose Iraq are the Europeans stupid enough to think the blowback won’t be on their doorstep too?
Could not agree more, ET. For a long time now, the ME has been hiding behind the Americans (and NATO). They are like a little child. They know that instead of having to grow up and solve their problems,they can just go running to mommy,who will ays there,there,I will help you. The ME is definitely not being helped by anybody who tries to solve their tribal problems with modern ways.They are entrenched in the 12th century,and will not get out until they decide they want to. We here in the West did not develop and move on until there was much chaos, and we decided enough was enough.We moved up,instead of sideways. Can we solve the problems of the ME? No. THEY must decide when they want something better, and are willing to strive for it.
ET, though I agree the US should leave Iraq don’t you think it should be from a position of strength. There should be an agreed timetable that allows the US to withdraw with Irag military and police filling the vacuum to ensure as much stability as possible. If it appears the US is being driven out by its leftist politicians and are seen to be running away again like Vietnam it would be a disaster.
Canada in Afghanistan faces a smaller but similar conundrum. I am sure the Taliban must love seeing idiots like Layton and Dion constantly weakening our position. As the ME muslims have no understanding of democracy our political squabbling appears as so feeble and cowardly.
Interesting document found in Pakistan that Layton should read, the fool.
“Every allegation of abuse or torture made by Taliban detainees has to be taken with a grain of salt. A terrorist training manual, found on a computer seized at an al-Qaeda camp in Pakistan, listed “allege torture” as one of the first tactics to be employed by any captured jihadi.”
david hand – I think the afghanistan situation is different; it is a democracy, a fledgling democracy, and the tribes are fighting it, but, it isn’t the same kind of tribalism as found in Iraq. So, I think that we, NATO, should stay in Afghanistan. The Iraq situation is different, and it’s difficult to explain that.
The way I see it, the ME has, as justthinkin, pointed out, refused to grow up and take responsibility. My view is that the ME will happily accept the US staying there, and will use its support to actually MAINTAIN tribalism in the ME, rather than get rid of it.
That is, the Iraqi gov’t is moving to being a tribal rather than civic gov’t, (it’s just a different tribe than Saddam Hussein’s tribe) and it will use the US to maintain order amongst dissenting tribes…and to maintain tribal rule.
The US has to leave so that NO TRIBE is protected. Iraq has to be a civic political system, ie, a democracy. And it has to itself insist on this.
As for the Iraq military and police filling the roles, that won’t be fully implemented until AFTER the US leaves. The longer the US stays there, the weaker the Iraqi democracy and we will see a return to tribalism.
Tribalism is very important to the dictators of the ME; they don’t want democracy. BUT, democracy MUST emerge in the ME. Without it, islamic fascism emerges – and moves outside the ME countries to attack the West.
The US has accomplished a great deal since 9/11. It has effectively moved Islamic fascism back into the ME. That’s a tremendous accomplishment.
Now, the US has to move out of the ME, so that Iraq, as the ‘catalyst’ for democracy, can take charge of that democracy and refuse tribalism. If the US stays, that democracy may degenerate to a new tribalism, protected unwittingly by the US. And, the other Arab states won’t deal with Iran, hoping that the US will deal with Iran. Why should it? The Arab states should deal with Iran.
The only way for the US to leave Iraq with dignity is action I have suggested for years.
Pres Bush must make a TV speech.
He has to explain that the US has tried to give the Iraqi people peace, prosperity and democracy. By their continued resistance to said goals it is obvious they want to continue to live in the 12th century. Therefore he must tell the ME that they have 6 months to clean up their act, turn in all plotters, bomb making sites, take charge.
If we do leave Iraq, we will take all our troops, equipment, contractors and expertise with us. No American will be allowed to live, work or visit Iraq. No money will be allowed to be sent to Iraq for any reason. All students from Iraq will be expelled from our halls of learning. All Iraqi assets in the US will be frozen, and we will work to deport any relatives of suicide bombers, OBL supporters, financiers, etc, living in the USA, and freeze their assets. We will make it illegal for anyone of Iraqi decent to come to our soil for any reason, for 100 years.
What would happen if the Pres did this. Listen to the democrats backtrack.
Too bad Pelosi and Reid will have to leave the country, along with most of hollywood and Rosie.
ET – I’m playing Devil’s advocate here. I don’t think Iraq is in a position to confront Iran. We disbanded their military and the Baathist officer corp. Iraq would be defeated in short order standing alone on the front lines. No one threw their forces in with them during the last Iran-Iraq War. Oh sure, the Saudis would fund Iraq, but I’m skeptical that other Arab states would be united around them unless it was an absolute life or death struggle for all Arabs. Iran would keep it confined to Iraq like it did before.
Prior to 9/11, we had no real physical presence in the ME. The terrorists have been intensifying their actions over three decades. And, I’ve always thought that Israel was and is a red herring. Root causes?, I go back and forth – ignorance, tribalism, poverty and a bad religion that has been militarizing its males. I don’t consider them industrialized, but, maybe I’m applying a different definition.
It’s depressing. We can’t change the culture or reform Islam. I do agree that the Mother of All Bloodletting among these folks might push them by the sheer toll of the carnage into change.
We owe those truly decent democracy yearning Iraqis something, especially the Kurds. Leaving them high and dry without a plan or a whole lot of training and armaments for their safety is immoral at this point.
And, one last thing, oil. If the ME burned itself to the ground like the Europeans did to themselves in WWI and II, their oil needs to be salvaged and managed. There won’t be a chance at rebirth in the ME if the west is in collapse without energy.
It’s really great to see good news coming out of Iraq. But it would be more compelling if they were not from Kurdistan.
The Kurds are doing better than they ever have before, but they have been effectively autonomous from Iraq since the US-controlled zone was set up in 1992 under the first President Bush. They didn’t have to do much rebuilding after the 2003 war because the Kurdish peshmerga fought on the coalition side.
Well, today in question period (HoC) the idiots were at it again. I just wish that more Canadians took the time to watch the BS coming out of Dion and Layton’s mouth; word for word. They are truly an embarrassment to our country, military service men and their families. If we do not fight the Taliban in their country, we will be fighting them in Canada and the USA. Is there really a choice in what has to be done?
What is worse is watching CTV and CBC fall all over themselves selling this BS nationally!
In QP the NDP went on and on about how they can win the hearts and minds of the Taliban by giving them food and love and respect, blah blah instead of hunting them down to kill them.
News Flash for the NDP:
The Taliban do NOT WANT Food & love & stability. They do not want jobs and opporunity for their families.
The Taliban WANT TO KILL INFEDELS!! Women and female children first (Hear that L:ibby and Dawn Black) .
The Taliban are programmed to believe that their only mission in this life is to KILL US ALL.
And , the more POINTS FOR KILLING US they get down here the more VIRGINS they get to molest and abuse when ALah rewards them for KILLING US!
Dear NDP- these are a bunch of Horny young men who want to KILL YOU and will blow themselves up to get to those yummy virgins even quicker.
I canot believe Canadians elect these people! I can only guess how the military families across this country feel about this NDP insanity; echoed by a bunch of goons the media seem to get on pretending they speak for US.
Gahhhhhh.
“If we do not fight the Taliban in their country, we will be fighting them in Canada and the USA. Is there really a choice in what has to be done?”
What nonsense! Any second now, the Taliban will come riding over the horizon on their camels. After swimming across the ocean.
What nonsense! Any second now, the Taliban will come riding over the horizon on their camels. After swimming across the ocean.
They weren’t riding camels into the WTC.
Do you ever get tired of being the Village Idiot?
Headline at LGF: …-
Al Qaeda Grateful to Harry Reid
The leaders of Al Qaeda in Iraq are very pleased by the support they’re receiving from US Democrats, and especially from Harry Reid: …-
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/
…-
Headline at SDA:
Taliban grateful to socialists: MayDion, Taliban Jack, Hezbollah Coderre, STOPIGGY, lberia, aka Stalin’s perverted terrorist, et al.
No, maryt – I don’t agree with your outline. That’s ‘democracy’ by threat. That’s not how it should or can, function.
Democracy is, admittedly, not a choice in the ME. It is a necessity. This is because, when you have a population in the multimillions AND operating within an industrial economy, you MUST have a political system that functions in such a system (population in the millions, economy is industrial).
There must be a middle class of employers and employees, entrepreneurs, innovators, people who are flexible in their work mode (can be an employee or employer); ie, their roles are not hereditary.
But, this movement from tribalism (which sets up inflexible work functions) to a civic political and economic system, has to be internally energized. Your tactic is external. No.
penny – I’ll disagree. I think the Iraqi military could pull itself up, and, above all, the situation is different now. No Arab state wants the Persians (Iran) to take over that area. Because Iran wouldn’t stop with Iraq.
Yes, the economy is industrialized, but, in a pathological manner. That’s why fascism has developed. The economy is primarily based around oil. However, this oil was found, developed, technologically accessed, transported and used – by the west. Islam, as I’ve said, has no science. It could not find or develop or use that oil on its own. So, the economy is industrial in that it’s national wealth is based around oil – and it’s hundreds of thousands of foreign engineers who do all the work on that.
So, prior to 9/11, the West DID have a physical presence in the ME; they built and ran the oil companies. Islam, again, has no science or engineering; it relied completely on the west for that expertise.
BUT, the majority of the population are not living in an industrial mode; they don’t put up factories and manufacture industrial goods; they don’t act as engineers; they don’t innovate. Instead, they primarily have service jobs, employed heavily by the gov’t. Indeed, most of the jobs in these countries are gov’t jobs, funded by oil (which is run by the west).
That’s why fascism developed, because the majority of the population are not free to act as a middle class economy.
Again, the root cause of Islamic fascism was the refusal to empower this increased population with economic and political power, ie, to enable a middle class. The ME remained in tribalism, which empowers a minority elite and the rest of the population are ‘just serfs’, just peasants.
Yes, Israel is a red herring, but, the conflict there has been taken over by the fascists as a ’cause’ – when in reality they don’t give a damn about the Palestinians.
I think that we in the west have done enough. I used to think that the US must stay, but, when I see that the Iraqi gov’t has become rather complacent and ‘settled’, counting on the US to do all the protective dirty work – I think a dangerous line has been crossed. That line is where one moves into ‘freeze’ mode – and I think that the Iraqi gov’t has done just that.
They have a gov’t; they have a constitution; they have a legal system. Now, they must operate within that framework. And they have to do it; my concern is that they will feel safe within a strange form of neo-colonialism and won’t want the US to leave – and won’t take charge of things themselves.
No, the ME won’t burn itself to the ground; setting up an apocalyptic scenario of ‘what if’ will serve only to freeze everyone into ineptitude.
Lorraine – right; I fully agree. The NDP and their postmodern multicultural blather are sickening. Same with the Liberals.
lberia – don’t be stuck on stupid. You obviously don’t understand Islamic fascism. As I said, the great achievement of the US in the past few years has been to move Islamic fascism out of the west and back to its home site – the ME.
BUT, fascism will continue, until the ME moves out of tribalism and into a civic political system. And I think that the US has to leave Iraq for that to happen. What is happening now, is that tribalism is emerging again in Iraq, aided by Iran, with Sunni and Shiite fighting each other, rather than working within a civic mode. The presence of the US, strangely enough, is enabling these conflicts. If the US were to leave, the Iraqi gov’t would rapidly have to stop the conflicts and insist on a civic mode.
Judging by the young men of the Muslim persuasion that got arrested for planning massacres in Toronto a couple months ago Iberia, I’d say they’re here already.
ET is entirely right I feel. And as to another’s remark about waiting until the ME is “stabilized” that’s a delusional fool’s errand. In fact, we should probably be encouraging division in the ME, just as the Arabs brilliantly divided the West since about 1973 (read: Bat Ye’or, Eurabia).
However, I don’t think I agree that Afghanistan is different. And as to NATO, it is to laugh. Most of the members are staying out of harm’s way and simply paying lip service to the fight while Canada does the heavy lifting.
And it is becoming clearer by the week that NATO actually fought on the side of the global jihad in Bosnia and Kosovo.
Yes, get out of Iraq soon but get the propaganda right, i.e., the message “we’ve given you a huge gift of blood and treasure” — now it’s time for you yourselves to make it or break it. (I know how I’m betting!)
Finally, do we realy need to be on the ground in the ME to secure oil? Will whomever controls the oil refuse to sell it to the west out of spite? I think not. Even bin Laden refused to undermine Saudi Arabia because of the great value of that oil wealth for the ummah!
Iberia is right too about the silly notion of the Taliban coming to our shores: provided we shut down the wrong kind of immigration, do some good old-fashioned deporting, cut out Saudi/Wahhabi mosque and university funding, and come clean on the intergenerational ponzi scheme we’ve been running since the 60s. (I know how I’m betting on that one too!).
Your hearts bleed for the people of Iraq I’m sure.
ET asks the right question about making tribal adolescents fight for their own democracies. But I don’t think we should pull out of either of these pretend-countries that are holding tribes together just yet.
I think we have a moral duty to see through a bit more of de-Baathification and de-Talabinizing.
This debate is happening because the world is incredible wealthy and globalization is working beyond everyone’s wildest dreams in an economic sense, which means 2 things;
– the Islamofascists look worse by the day in their incompetence
– We have the financial power and muscle to be benevolent if we want to do that.
But ET’s issue is no different than the question of “moral hazard” that the World Bank faces on a bail out. When does it make sense to lend a country some liquidity to see it through a crisis?
Versus
When do those loans just perpetuate the economic problems by bailing people out of their mistakes?
We haven’t figured out the answers to these questions yet and it’s interesting that a neocon like Wolfowitz has been involved with both the military aspects and now the World Bank.
He was dealing with the despotic beneficiaries of corruption in both cases. First, the oil-for-food scam at the UN with Saddam and now at the World Bank where the Wall St Journal estimates there is $800 billion in corruption that Wolfy was digging into .. that might be his downfall.
Sorry to just add more issues to the already complex problem (I won’t even begin to talk about the Euroweenies). But we had better start to learn the meaning of “moral hazards “in both a financial and a military sense …because corruption and despots and oil can buy just-in-time inventories of WMDs.
Then they can get the Islamofascist death cult to deliver the WMDs to our shores.
Damn good, mondenet: I’m in the financial field, and almost used the phrase “throwing in good money after bad” in my post, but demurred. Greshman’s law isn’t it? “Moral hazard” is a central issue here, you’re right.
As ET pointed out, the US needs to be concerned about being played for a sucker in this.
Euroweenies: well we can thank the US’s thankless task of defending them throughout the cold war and thereby enabling them to build their destructive welfare states.
I recently spent 90 minutes chatting with a 20-something German weenie (with a Masters in Physics) on the ferry in BC and am still not over the shock of coming face to face with the anti-Yank anti-Israel bigotry and blind faith in the anti-democratic EU.
“Euroweenies: well we can thank the US’s thankless task of defending them throughout the cold war and thereby enabling them….”
me no dhimmi … and that “enabling” is yet another “moral hazard” , as is the cocooning of Canada by the USA (ET, that one’s your cue) as is the appeasement of the Bloc and of Danny Williams and so on.
The point is … because we can afford to do this, therefore we keep putting off what ET is suggesting which is … cause people to grow up by starving them of protection.
These “moral hazard” issues exist all over the place, but our utopian universities won’t teach the kids about it, they just blame .. America.
ET – The Russians had no democracy for all of their history. Communism, by far worse than any czar, finally collapsed, and they are re-Stalinizing after a brief stint of freedom. Putin, has an 80% approval rating. There is something flawed in that culture too.
The Russian Orthodox Church abandoned the Russians early on when the communists came, now they are collaborators with Putin. In Poland, the church joined forces with the shipyard workers. If Muslim imams led the democracy revolution I could see it.
I’m skeptical that democracy can be internally generated by the Arabs, not when you have a religion that essentially won’t support it.
You can externally shove democracy down peoples throats – Japan, Germany – if they are first defeated and subjugated. Arab wars against other Arabs are always just base slaughters with no redeeming principles applied.
We need more time to see what the Iraqis do with what they now understand as time running out for them to get their act together.
Those are good issues, nomdenet – actions that help a country through a crisis, versus actions that end up preventing the nation from taking charge of itself. But, I think that one has to make the decision about the ‘thin line’ that separates the two.
And I think that the line has been crossed with Iraq. Going into Iraq was important, because Islamic fascism had moved out of the ME – where it could not achieve its goals because of the military dictatorships there – and had moved into the West.
As I said, the great accomplishment of the US over the past few years has been to move that fascism back to the ME, out of the West.
BUT – now, the US has to enable that anger that is at the root of Islamic fascism, to be expressed IN THE ME. That is, the anger that led to fascism was generated by the refusal of the ME governments to empower their citizens, to allow a middle class to emerge. The ME gov’ts insistence on remaining in a tribal political mode which empowered only an elite – led to anger – which led to fascism.
This anger has to be expressed – and answered, positively, by the ME gov’ts. They have to empower a middle class. The current ME gov’ts are using the safety of the US presence to NOT CONFRONT this internal anger of their citizens. They are using the safety of the US presence to view this anger as ONLY insurgents.
But this anger isn’t just insurgents; it’s about the necessity to empower a middle class – and my concern is that the new gov’t could be just a new tribe.
I think that the US has to leave, to force Iraq to confront itself, to stand on its own feet. And, importantly, to force the other Arab states, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc, to confront and empower their people.
penny – Russia is NOT ‘re-Stalinizing’. There are no gulags or mass murders. What communism did, just as it did in China, was to move a peasant agricultural economy into an industrial economy within one generation.
The only way to make such a massive structural change in ONE generation, is by force. That’s what the military authoritarianism of communism did in both countries.
However, a socialist system does not function within a multi-million population and, a socialist system is non-adaptive. It tends to move the economy to ‘the lowest common denominator’. Innovation, entrepreneurship slithers to a halt. So, it both countries, it collapsed. Very obviously in Russia – ie, from the top down. And in China, as it always is, in China, from the ‘bottom up’. Both are capitalist, both are early capitalist – corruption is heavy, mafia type entrepreneurs and so on.
The Muslim imams are primarily focused around Wahhabi Islam – that’s a dysfunctional Islam, unable to evolve and modernize.
Germany didn’t require democracy ‘shoved down its throat’; it was democratic before the war, and you are ignoring that some of the finest analysts of social interaction are German (Kant not Hegel); mathematicians, scientists etc. Japan was a ‘feudal’ society and that doesn’t mean that it couldn’t move into democracy.
The Arab people are the same species as we are; most certainly, Islam rejects democracy, it rejects the individual, it rejects reason. But, Islam or its followers, will have to change.
These people cannot survive in our modern world without democracy, without reason, without science. They cannot continue on as dependents, as colonies, with the West supplying the technological expertise to extract their oil, the technology to provide them with cars, cell phones, computers and so on – while all they do is live off the oil revenues. That leads to fascism, because the people are without power.
Yes, the Iraqis have to get their act together. Same with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon – and Iran/Syria.
And the US shouldn’t support them for much longer because it is enabling them to hide from this unpleasant task.
penny: Bingo. In fact, “democracy” is heresy/blasphemy in Islam — that gradual understanding is what changed my mind. And yes, injecting democracy worked when all-out war and total subjugation was possible. No longer. We’ve lost the taste for it, probably thankfully (?). And penny, so right about Russia!
ET: While I agree with most of what you say, your notion of our “pushing fascism back into the ME” seems contrived to me — a bit too neat, too pat. In fact, Islamofascism is a huge and growing problem in Western universities and the media bolstered by massive Saudi/Wahhabi funding. And Thailand, the Phillipines, Indonesia, Kashmir, Sudan aren’t in the ME!
Moreover, fascism has taken hold in western intellectual circles, witness the resurgence of anti-semitism hiding under cover of anti-zionism. [for an excellent read, try moral philosopher Bernard Harrison’s “The Resurgence of Anti-Semitism: Jews, Israel, and Liberal Opinion].
Recall PBS’s recent refusal to include that documentary Islam vs. Islamism in their 10-part series. CAIR! The Somali taxi-drivers, the flying imams, Bush’s dropping of the “islamofascism” word.
No ET: There has been no such accomplishment as “driving fascism back into the ME”. Quite the contrary.
ET: I don’t think it’s accurate to say Germany was democratic before the war! In fact, I don’t think Germany was EVER democratic until after WW2. A long time back, you described China as “capitalist”. Similar error I feel.
ET, I agree with your theory that “the US shouldn’t support them for much longer because it is enabling them to hide from this unpleasant task.”
We just don’t quite agree on the timing of let ’em fend for themselves. What these countries need while trying to glue tribes together is for good leaders to appear. Leadership can make a huge difference. Ideally an Ataturk will emerge in a couple of these hell holes and drag them through the knothole a bit faster.
But I still trust the US to judge the timing of withdrawal which will hopefully be soon. This interview on Hugh Hewitt is interesting ..
HH: Yesterday on this program, Lawrence Wright detailed the flow of jihadis to al Anbar, and now evidently Diyala Province with the hope of taking on the Americans. Has that halted, slowed, are do they continue pretty much at will to arrive in the country?
FK: Al Qaeda is surging against us, and I think that’s happening globally. I think that al Qaeda is funneling all of the resources it can into defeating us in Iraq, and it is funneling all of its resources in Iraq to creating spectacular attacks against us, and against innocent Iraqi civilians, both Sunni and Shia. And they’re indiscriminant in their killing. This isn’t really sectarian killing. This is just terrorism, plain and simple. And they are surging to try to break our will, and I hope to Heaven that we won’t let them.
The whole thing is here :
http://tinyurl.com/2omjy8
This is a very sad day for the world.
Even if these bills are replaced with proper funding bills the momentum of the Surge has been lost and a clear messge has been sent to al Qaeda, insurgents, Iraqi fence sitters and Iraqi democrats.
The message to al Qaeda is you win. We are not prepared to endure the price of defeating you (even as Sunni tribes and indeed insurgents turn against you). Enjoy your new home in Iraq. No doubt we’ll soon see you in greater numbers in Afghanistan but don’t worry. If Iraq wasn’t worth fighting for nobody in their right mind will fight for Afghanistan.
To the insurgents: carry on. To the fence sitters: well what are you waitng for? To Iraqi democrats: sorry, it’s all Bush’s fault.
I don’t even want to contemplate the effect of American withdrawal / al Qaeda victory upon the region.
Playing venal partisan politics with national security has its price. Ultimately the Democrats will pay dearly but not until millions have paid for their myopia and treachery.
If Bush doesn’t get the funding needed to win this war he should propose that Reid, Pelosi, and Hagel go to Iraq and negotiate the withdrawal with al Qaeda. At least then, we’d have video footage for posterity of them triumphantly waving a useless piece of paper.
http://tinyurl.com/2nybcr
Ottawa Sun: Opposition a Real Scream
This reporter really summed it up regarding our so called opposition and their defense of the Taliban.
I wish they spent more time discussing how our government was going to take more action in protecting our soldiers from these crazy suicidal bombers! Layton and Dion are right off their rockers.
Lorraine, Penny, Mary T; Well said ladies!
me no dhimmi – I disagree with you on Russia, Germany and fascism. No need to repeat my points on the first two.
China IS capitalist now. What’s your point? It moved out of peasant agriculturalism in one generation via the militant form of communism. Communism is a political mode; it can’t last long as an economic mode in a large population. As a political mode, in a large population, it becomes totalitarian. But, that is changing now in China as well; it can’t control the people – not within capitalism, not within modern communication.
Islamic fascism has, in my view, most definitely been driven back into the ME; Muslims are killing Muslims – they aren’t mounting attacks in the West.
As for the Islamism in the academic field, that’s not what I mean by Islamic fascism (the act of violence within the ideology; the political agenda of establishing an Islamic Sharia state). Academic Islamism is pure ideology- and utopian ideologies, which include fascism and communism, will always be held within the safety of the seminar rooms by the Cloud Dwellers.
PBS and taxi-drivers – that’s not Islamic fascism; that’s multiculturalism – and I’m saying that has to be rejected by the West.
Fascism is not directly linked to anti-semitism.
nomdenet – yes, it’s the timing. And above all, the ME needs its own leader. As I said, I’ve always been strongly in favour of Bush’s doctrine of democratization and the Iraq War. My point now, is that I don’t see the Iraqi leaders themselves standing up to their own people, to Al Qaeda, to Iran and saying: “ENOUGH. Stop the fighting, stop the slaugher of Muslim by Muslim. Stop – and let’s work to create our country’.
They won’t say it. And that’s the ‘thin red line’ that has led me to also say – ‘Enough’. Why should the West fight for your future, when you won’t, yourself, not merely not fight, but not stand up and suppport that future?”
If the Iraq leaders would themselves speak out and show their solidarity, their commitment to their democratic future – then, why should the US stay there to help them?
At least, in Afghanistan, you have Karzai speaking out. But in Iraq?
Lawrence Wright wrote a really excellent book on the history of Al Qaeda; I respect his views. My point is that the Arab nations have to, themselves, speak up.
Terry Gain – I disagree; when will the Arab leaders speak up against Al Qaeda? After all, it is now terrorism against Muslims. Not terrorism against the West – it’s against Muslims. How long are the Arab nations willing to let their own people be slaughtered by Muslim terrorists? Is this the price they are willing to pay for maintaining their tribal dictatorships?
Stephen at 4:13pm says..
**This is an issue of committment and ability.
I dont know the answer, but the options “to win” seem to be . . . *
And he suggests the Iraqis themselves [police], shaping order.
This is the correct approach and intel cooperation with support is essential.
There are many leaders of groups in Iraq who are fairly moderate like Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
The simple plan is to provide full support to these *moderates* so long as these leaders
work to help build a stable governing council and withdraw support when they give in to revenge killing temptations.
In simple 12th century tribal cultures, it seems simple plans are most likely to gain ground and win out.
At the opposite end of the leader spectrum is:
Muqtada al-Sadr,
who is 42 years Sistani’s junior and the head of an independent militia known as the Mahdi army, has risen to prominence in the course of 2004 and his military activities have undermined the peaceful teachings of Sistani.
Muqtada al-Sadr launched an attempt to fight what he perceives as the *oppressive foreign forces* in the holy city of Najaf while Sistani was out of the country.
answers.com/topic/grand-ayatollah-ali-al-sistani
= TG
ET – to date Putin has reverted Yukos back to the state and is using oil as a weapon against the smaller states, imprisoned after a Stalinesque show trial it’s owner and potential political rival Michail Khordorkovsy (a political prisoner along with other Yukos managers), murdered journalists(19 to date), taken control of all of the tv stations and most of the newspapers, dissolved elections in the Duma, recently beaten and arrested everyone at Kasparov’s public gathering, frozen western NGO’s out of the country, I could go on…..it sure looks like re-Stalinizing to me. The Gulags will creep back in time. What follows him won’t be any better. Here’s a good blog documenting Russia’s demise.
Islam doesn’t have to change, my analogy with Russia, at least not by some internal mechanism that doesn’t exist( Putin has an 80% approval rating). The ME can merely wear itself down into something less lethal to the rest of us like Russia.
If we didn’t have the Democrats and the lefty MSM obstructing our playing hardball, what we should have done was treated Iraq, especially wimpy Maliki, the way Gen. MacArthur treated Japan. If we loose this it’s because we erred in being too nice.
I don’t see how the US can leave Iraq without giving the surge a chance and not responsibly planning, training and arming the good factions so they can defend themselves.
penny:
With your great wisdom, perhaps you could explain how the Taliban took down the WTC.
Face it people, Bush and his fellow idiots managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Now it’s just a matter of time before the US leaves with it’s tail between it’s legs – much like the Soviets left Afghanistan.
“If we didn’t have the Democrats and the lefty MSM obstructing our playing hardball…”
Friggin right wingers never admit when they screw up. It’s always someone else’s fault, eh? Who controlled Congress the last six years? What ever happened to “The buck stops here!”??
“Bush’s dropping of the “islamofascism” word.”
Bush didn’t drop the word Islamofascism. He used it but once or twice since 9/11, in the latter part of 2006. He refrained from using it because he wanted to avoid the accusation that he was waging a crusade against Islam- a war he didn’t want to wage and a war he knew he couldn’t win.
Fighting this war has been difficult for Bush. He’s been under media siege throughout. These attacks have taken their toll not only upon Bush but upon those who have supported him, as this comments thread makes clear.
It appears that the media may be victorious against Bush but this will be a pyrric victory.
The belief that peace can be achieved by not engaging al Qaeda is naive in the extreme. Would that it were possible but this approach was taken in the 90’s and led to all those attacks Clinton ignored and eventually 9/11.
Al Qaeda wants to re-establish a new Caliphate. Victory in Iraq will be a boon to these ambitions and a great recruitng tool.
Withdrawal from Iraq will provide a temporary reprieve from the daily reports of bloodshed but when the reprieve ends, as it will, and the killing starts again in earnest we will wish for the day when only 750 Americans per year were being killed by these Islamists.
I expect liberals to ignore the lessons of history but I’m surprised, actually really surprised, to see ET turned. The suggestion that an abandoned, divided Iraq will be able to stand up to Iran, a nation with three times the population and on the verge of having a nuclear bomb is ludicous.
Read Marc Gerecht’s article in the Weekly Standard if you want to contemplate what may occur if America abandons this fledgling democracy.
If America abandons Iraq (to al Qaeda) America will never be trusted again. If America abandons Iraq I will add my voice to those demanding the withdrawal of Canadian soldiers from Afghanistan before al Qaeda returns there in force, which they certainly will. Iraq (and Iran) could become a progressive democratic country. Afghanistan is a backwater.
Abandoning support for the mission in Iraq at the moment when Iraqis are finally able to support a sound counterinsurgency strategy is, to say the least, bizarre.
What’s next ET? Support for PBA and AGW theories?
“Bush and his fellow idiots managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory”
Bullshit. When was victory within Bush’s grasp? Victory will only come after a long hard slog. In this case only one side is prepared to enagage in a long hard slog. I heard a leftard host on a Buffalo rado station tonght ask how setting a date for withdrawal could be considered surrendering.
It’s hard to believe this needs to be spelled out, but if you were engaged in a boxing match and you said to your opponent -even an inferior opponent – “I’m only going 3 rounds”. Well, guess who would win that match?
Terry:
You are correct. America will want to leave Iraq someday but now is not the time. A withdrawal from Iraq now will probably mean the divisions within Iraq will increase – and perhaps to the point where the country itself is split apart.
Iraq is not a natural country. It was created by the British after they inherited the Ottoman Empire. The British divided up the ME for reasons that were not necessarily in the best interests of the people of the ME. The divisions were more than often for British interests rather than for ME interests. That may have not been such a bad thing because we have seen for centuries that many of these peoples are quite warlike.
A removal of American force from Iraq could mean the emergence of three countries. If the Kurds break loose, the Kurds in Iran, Syria, and Turkey will want to join those in Iraq to create a 23 million nation of Kurdistan. The Iranians do not want this even though they want the Americans out of Iraq; the Turks want the Americans to stay for precisely this reason.
Now I am not sure on this next point – but my sense is that the Iran issue will be diffused by the Americans before they leave Iraq. How this is done is still unknown but the military option is still on the table. Things are not going as well as they could be but Harry Reid is quite in error.
The Taliban didn’t take down the WTC. They are kindred terrorists just the same. It was in the context of terrorism(does it matter which group), a point made in the interview, coming to the US if the we pulled out of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Since the Dems took over down south I have cringed at the thought that they might pull the troops out of Iraq. It was obvious that a victorious and thus a newly invigorated Iranian insurgency would be refocused eastward. And it would be disastrous for the NATO and the Canadians.
I heard a US general say a couple of months back that the Iraq war is winnable – in about 30 days, if all of the reporters, the bleeding hearts (Amnesty Internatinoal, etc.) and the politicians were kicked out. I fear that the U.S. is again bombing rice paddies as they did in the past – And the Dems approve.
No one can win a politically correct war. Not the U.S., and certainly not canada. except of course…, well,
the Dems and (our) Libs will be beside themselves.
These bastards are lethal.
CRB
If you want to know what’s going on in Iraq you have to read Roggio (Fourth Rail) and Wixted (Back Talk). 15 of 21 Sunni tribes are fighting al Qaeda, which can’t even hold Ramadi. Last year the MSM was calling it an Qaeda stronghold. They are now holed up in Diyala and they will be defeated there unless the Democrats (and ET ) get their way.
Al Qaeda sets off a bomb that kills 200 people and the next day Reid says America must withdraw from a civil war (as evidenced by said bombing). No one in the MSM has the intelligence or balls to challenge this stupid mendacious prick.
Even al Sadr understands that the Surge is working. He’s hiding in Iran. Petraeus says he needs 6 months. I say give it to him. The naysayers don’t deserve 6 seconds.
Terry Gain – I disagree; when will the Arab leaders speak up against Al Qaeda?
ET
Read Roggio and Wixted if you seriously want an answer to this question but why should they when no one else will? In fact Iraqis are standing up. Maliki puts his life on the line every day. He is going after the Shiite militias or didn’t you notice? They are fighting a formidable enemy not some camel riding one-offs as the MSM seems to think.
Use the Star, Globe and Sun to wrap fish or cancel your subscriptions. Iraqis are standing up. It’s people like you that are falling down- and your life ain’t even on the line. (And neither is mine. )
ET is very logical most of the time, however this round goes to Terry. = TG
Roggio has a must read report up today on Petraeus’s briefing and developments in Anbar. Heres an excerpt:
Iraq Report: Gen. Petraeus on Iraq, Anbar Rising
General David Petraeus, the commander of Multinational Force Iraq, completed his closed-door Congressional testimony yesterday, and has since conducted a quick press briefing and a Pentagon briefing. In this morning’s Pentagon briefing, Gen. Petraeus highlighted Iran’s involvement in Iraq, al Qaeda in Iraq’s dominance of the Sunni insurgency, and the importance of disrupting the Shia militias. He also stressed that the Baghdad Security plan is still in its early stages, and a full evaluation of the operation cannot be made until September at its earliest. He noted that sectarian violence has decrease by about two-thirds since the inception of the Baghdad Security Plan, and ongoing operations against al Qaeda cells are yielding good intelligence on al Qaeda’s network.
After yesterday’s testimony to Congress, Gen. Petraeus highlighted the very real progress in Anbar, which used to lead all Iraqi provinces in attacks per capita. An American intelligence official informs us that attacks in Ramadi, which used to be the most violence city in Iraq, have dropped from a peak of 50 a day last September to 2 – 4 a day currently. Here is what Gen. Petraeus had to say about Anbar province:
I also pointed out the progress in Anbar Province, which has been very substantial, as you know. Literally over the last two months, Anbar has gone — or certainly over the last six months — from being assessed as being lost, to a situation that now is quite heartening because of the decision by a number of Sunni Arab tribes to join the fight against al Qaeda, saying no more — they’ve had it — and linking arms with the coalition to take on al Qaeda and one city after another really cleaning them out all the way down the Euphrates River Valley from al Qaim and Husaybah through Haditha, Hit, Ramadi and so forth, although as I pointed out to each of the respective bodies — the House and the Senate — there still is considerable work to be done in Anbar Province although all the trends are in the right direction. And in fact the two additional Marine battalions that are part of the surge are now operating just for the first couple of weeks in Anbar Province, and they’ll be joined by some additional forces later on as with the two additional Army brigades as they move in to their respective areas in and around Baghdad.
The Anbar Salvation Council, which is led by Sheik Abdul Sattar al-Rishawi, has been waging a war against al Qaeda in Iraq for almost a year, and are now showing real progress against the terror group.
….
Operations against Muqtada al Sadr’s fractured Mahdi Army are continuing inside the Sadr City district of Baghdad. Coalition forces killed three Mahdi militiamen during a running gun battle inside Sadr City. The operation targeted “a network that trains terrorists for operations in Iraq.”
ET, I don’t for a moment think that you are abandoning the War on Terror or that you don’t still hold Bush’s goal for democratization of the ME as being the best option for a safer world.
I understand your concept of stopping the “enabling” and that is an excellent point. It would be helpful if both Harper and Bush convinced us that we aren’t enabling and thereby protracting the maturing process of the locals. I beleive that we are simply nurturing these fragile governments to fend for themselves and that we plan to withdraw … preferably at the request of the new governments telling us they are ready to take full responsibility for their own policing. But currently , this is not John Kerry type police work, it’s War.
Meanwhile, we’re entitled to defend ourselves. I would prefer to take the war to them then to fight it here. The locus of activity seems to be over there, let’s contain it there as much as possible. Because as Victor Davis Hanson says:
“everything from our 401(k) plans to municipal water plants depend on sophisticated computers and communications. And you don’t need a missile to take them down. Two oceans no longer protect the United States — not when the Internet knows no boundaries, our borders are relatively wide open, and dozens of ships dock and hundreds of flights arrive daily.
A germ, some spent nuclear fuel or a vial of nerve gas could cause as much mayhem and calamity as an armored division in Hitler’s army. The Soviets were considered rational enemies who accepted the bleak laws of nuclear deterrence. But the jihadists claim that they welcome death if their martyrdom results in thousands of dead Americans.”
terry gain – I’ll continue to disagree – and don’t use irrelevant arguments like ‘ what’s next – AGW, PBW theories’. And I don’t subscribe to any newspaper. Don’t move into ad hominem or irrelevant comments.
lberia – your comments are juvenile. You aren’t making any arguments.
I repeat – I’m strongly in favour of the Iraq War, but, my concern, which not one of you has addressed other than nomdenet, is that a ‘new’ situation may be emerging, where democracy will fail.
I’m not saying that the US should leave NOW, but I think it should be this year or by spring of 2008. Why? Because the ME is not taking charge of itself, and I’m suggesting it may be operating the way is has, for centuries, as a ‘kept’ area. As a ‘kept’ area, protected by other nations (Ottomans, Britain, US), the ME can readily remain in tribalism. The key to ME health is to end tribalism as a political force. This is absolutely vital. Tribalism must end.
First, the War was necessary to stop both the growth of Islamic fascism and its externalization to the Western world. I’ve gone over that. The US has succeeded in moving this fascism back to its origin, the ME. Now, it’s Muslims fighting Muslims.
But the root cause of this fascism, tribalism, must be dealt with, by the establishment of democracy in the ME. Is this happening? Iraq now has a constitution and an elected government. The other Arab States remain tribal. The agenda was a ‘domino’ effect of diffusion of democracy.
However, for this to work, the power of the political system MUST be within the control of the people. This means – the development of a strong middle class – self-organized and self-reliant. This is not happening.
The ‘new’ situation (with ‘new’ in quotes) that I see happening is a CONTINUATION of colonialism, by the refusal of the ME states to move out of their passivity and take charge of their own states. By this – I mean a refusal of the governance to move out of tribal dictatorships, a refusal of the population to move out of passivity, a refusal to take charge of their industrial and economic development.
Consider – the ME has always been colonized, by the Ottoman, the British – and I’m saying that they PREFER this mode. Within this OverSeer, they continued to live within a subsistence agricultural lifestyle, in tribes, squabbling with each other, but,’kept’ secure by the OverSeer.
Then, came a change in energy use in the West, moving from coal to gas and oil. The WEST found the ME oil. Now- did the ME emerge from its childlike kept stature and develop engineering capacities, technological capacities, scientific capacities? No. No education, no universities; nothing. They left it completely up to the West to finance, develop, and set up the oil industries – which then enabled them to continue on with their tribalism – and move into military tribalism.
Islam, as I’ve said, hasn’t had a scientific thought since its inception. The ME did NOTHING to develop itself, to educate its people within an industrial lifestyle, to develop non-oil economies etc.
But, it ‘kept’ its people by social benefits from the oil revenues. However, this era saw a movement from rural to urban, a population explosion..and…the emergence of fascism as the people were without political and economic power.
Wahhabi religion emerged to offer ‘hope’, a utopian purification mode. And, the fascism, inexpressible within the ME – moved outside.
OK – that’s the scenario. The ME has always operated as ‘kept’ by external powers. In this current era, it has been kept by the Western oil industries – It sure wasn’t the Muslims who had the engineers, the technologists, the scientists to do it. And, they haven’t developed their own engineering capacity! That’s what I mean by a ‘kept’ or colonized people.
The biggest problem the ME has, is its utter passivity in dealing with itself. It can’t access its oil by itself, it can’t change its political structure by itself. The West has to move in, in both cases, to do this. And the latter, only because fascism had emerged and moved out of the ME.
Now, with the start of a change in the political structure of the ME – which would stop fascism – is the ME actively taking charge? NO. They are continuing their passivity. They are continuing to sit back and allow others to come in, take out the tribal dictator, set up a democracy, help them get started, and protect them against the tribal insurgents from the other states.
WHEN is the ME going to reject this passive lifestyle, this desire for colonization and stand up on its own? When are the Arab States going to stand up, themselves, and insist that Muslims stop killing Muslims?
When are the other Arab States going to empower their own citizens? When are they going to react against Iran’s imperialist ambitions? When are they going to stop Islamic fascism? Instead – they do and say almost nothing. They prefer being ‘kept’ by the West, they prefer tribalism – kept by the West. And the longer the US stays and thus enables them to continue as ‘kept’ states, the longer tribalism will continue.
“And America will hardly become a battle ground if they leave. That is a childish assumption at best, but I suppose it appeals to some.”
What kind of asshat can say something this stupid after 9/11?