Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine

Putin Ukraine 31 Comments

Via Stephen McIntyre: excellent sit-rep on status of Ukraine war

(It appears “March 4th” is a typo and intended to read May 4th.)

Read the full thread here.

31 Replies to “Russian Military Campaign in Ukraine”

  1. The fact that they say Yampol was “liberated” says a lot. Calling the invaders DNR/LNR forces and not Russian forces is a joke. This has been a Russian operation in the east since 2014. They’re also ignoring the Ukraine advances, north and east of Kharkiv, and north of Kherson.

    Russia hit their high mark around the middle of March. There’s been significant losses since then and no serious gains.

    Look for Putin to weasel a way to “victory”. He has backed himself into a corner, Russia cannot win at this point.

    1. Yes and no. Russia could never win this, in a sense of Ukrainians submitting and accepting russian occupation. This was a strategic blunder from the start. There is no win, it is another Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq … a quagmire.

      But that does not mean russians cannot turn Ukraine into rubble, and bleed Ukraine into stalemate. Both sides are out of steam right now. Ukraine is being constantly replenished by civilization but this does not translate into a large number of coherent modern units capable of large scale offensive operations. It translates into more and more roadblocks that the increasingly exhausted, russian forces are breaking against. The loses of experienced, trained Ukrainian personnel are substantial and harder to replace than equipment.

      Russian loses are staggering and their incompetence at tactical and strategic level obvious. They’re well pass any attempts of large landings behind Ukrainian lines. Those were performed by elite units and largely wiped out in the early weeks.

      Ukrainians are masters in the use of drone directed artillery and small unit ambushes. This is what has worked for them so far and continues working. The counteroffensives around Kharkiv and Kherson appear to be regaining ground that russians could not hold due to exhaustion and faulty logistics not breakthroughs cutting through prepared russian positions or results of brilliant tactical maneuvers.

      All in all Ukrainians are holding the line, russians are looking more and more pathetic and Ukraine is suffering a great deal as a result. My prediction: Pootin steps down due to health reasons, they settle on russia holding Crimea and some of the land they gained in the East.

      1. Ukrainian forces are taking back areas around Kharkiv. There’s no reason for Ukraine to settle for anything but Total Victory and perhaps even destabilizing the Caucasus. They have inexhaustible manpower and weapons supplies. Russia has dozens of mysterious explosions and fires and no true allies.

        1. “They have inexhaustible manpower and weapons supplies. ”

          No they don’t. You have no idea what you’re talking about (naturally). They have a very finite, limited, exhausted and bloodied supply of trained professional troops familiar with modern weapons and trained in coordinated maneuver warfare. You can give a kid an RPG or an AK and call him a soldier but he will not know how to use a radio, never mind command a vehicle in a combined arms operation.

          1. Quantity has a quality all its own, especially when it’s highly motivated. Ukraine also has trained professionals arriving via its foreign legion all the time.

          2. “Quantity has a quality all its own, especially when it’s highly motivated. ”

            Whatever, you don’t know in the slightest what you’re talking about. Can your motivation drive a tank, pilot a jet, coordinate a crew on an artillery piece and direct fire via drones? Can you even comprehend the amount of training and skill required to do this well?

            Foreign volunteers tent to be almost exclusively used as light infantry, That’s because the heavy kit on the ground is foreign to them. Also foreigners are a tiny fraction of Ukrainian forces.

    2. The DNR/LNR folk are absolutely local recruits, probably fight better than the Russians, and Moscow couldn’t care less how many die. They are a distinct force in that they are somewhat more effective and infinitely more expendable.

      You are totally right about Russia’s position. They’re forked.

      1. “They are a distinct force ”

        No they haven’t been that for years now. They formally started at that but were immediately infused with russian regulars in “adviser” and soon in C3 roles. The supply of russian troops among their ranks sturdily increased. Details are sketchy but it seems like officers are mostly russians and they are regularly supplied by russia (if any anything in russia can be called regular given have decimated their logistical chain is)

    3. “The fact that they say Yampol was “liberated” says a lot.”

      Or when they refer to Ukrainian home guard units as “volkssturm”. Author’s allegiance is clearly with the Siberian horde.

  2. Rumors are Putin will announce a general mobilization of the Russian Military on May 9. May 9th is the Anniversary of Victory Day over Germany in WW2. If so, could Russia and Putin crush Ukraine with new military units and sheer numbers, much like Russia crushed Finland during the Summer following the Winter War?

    It also sounds like they may use the Transnistran Russian forces to start a new front and a back door into Odessa? Or maybe just use Transnistra to distract and pin down Ukrainian Forces from the real attacks?

    Another source of information on the Russo-Ukraine War.
    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-campaign-assessment-may-5
    They seem to be cautious and neutral in their evaluations?

  3. Hurry up, guys. Only 2-1/2 days until “Victory Day” anniversary, comrades!

  4. just godda luv the armchair generals, all over the net, and not one of them had a bluddy clue as to what is going on over there. And that includes the posters in here, especially the colon and the alla A-Hole. And no, I do not know what is going on, just have to wait and see were this goes. I was just reading an article were the writer question who is financing the advertising campaign that is appearing in brittain and the USA. That campaign appears to be to help push the west into greater involvement.

    1. Russia will suffer crushing defeat after crushing defeat, until they are in full possession of the Ukraine.

    2. In other words, you have nothing to add but would like to register your regular displeasure with my existence. Dully noted, and filed under “Enema69 tantrums”. Thank you for calling.

  6. Had never heard of Cadieu. Remarkable that he was poised to lead the Canadian military, got caught up in a scandal, “retired”, and is now apparently in Ukraine.

    This ain’t some low level hack.

    You would think given the stakes of the game the Govt should have some answers as to why he’s there.

    1. Do canuckistani military pensions get delivered to a Russian POW camp? Maybe think twice before heading up a bio weapons lab next time. Why are there so many bio weapons labs in the world anyways. winnipeg, wuhan, 30 or so in the ukraine?

  7. So the origin meme still stands?
    We the West,will defend The Ukraine to the last Ukrainian.
    The constant repetitions of “Russian Defeat” are beginning to make Bagdad Bob look credible?
    Based on what assumptions,is the division of the Ukraine into East and West a great victory for The Ukraine?
    Who is winning here?
    Sure as hell is not the civilians on the ground.
    Is it the people “loaning” The Ukraine hardware and money?
    All of which must be repaid with interest?
    Is it the militaries of Virtue Signalling Countries?
    Who have been able to dispose of tons of useless junk and now can demand their political masters pay for “replacements”.
    Who grows fat,on the misery unleashed upon Ukrainians?
    And as always,why do my enemies side with the corrupt government of The Ukraine?
    Why are their Nasties,OK ?
    But Canadian Truckers are white supremest Nasty terrorists,for wanting bodily freedom…

  9. I have not read or seen a comment explaining the lack of Russian air bombardments of Ukrainian positions.

    1. Russia wants to take as much of the infrastructure as intact is she can. This gives the Nazis a tactical advantage, and will result in it taking longer for Russia to win.

      1. It won’t take longer for Russia to win because they aren’t gonna win, period.

    2. Right, all those Su-34, -24, -25, Ka-52s, Mi-28, -35 falling out of the sky is just for fun?
      They can’t fly low because of proliferation of Manpads, but they’re flying all the time. Ukrainian positions are taking fire all the every day from MLRS and tube arty, towns have been leveled that way. Hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles have been fired too.

  11. The corrupt figure head actor of Ukraine is just like the corrupt Globalist actor of Canada.

    Criticize Juthtin Turdhole/NDP dicktratorship and you will get arrested and imprisoned, have your bank accounts seized and then cover up any Government wrong doing.

    Now Zalensky is behaving just like Basic Dick Juthtin Turdhole. No criticisms allowed.
    Zalensky needs a CBC and CTV , Global cabal to cover his crimes, just like Basic Dickhole, Juthtin does.

    https://summit.news/2022/05/06/zelensky-critic-arrested-in-spain-on-orders-of-ukrainian-government/

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